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  • 美国官员称:伊朗战争实际成本接近500亿美元,而非250亿


    2026年4月30日 / 美国东部时间下午3:41 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻

    华盛顿讯——据了解内部评估情况的美国官员向哥伦比亚广播公司新闻透露,伊朗战争的实际总成本接近500亿美元,约为本周五角大楼在国会听证会上公开披露的预估成本的两倍。

    周三在国会山举行的听证会上,一名五角大楼官员将美国国防部“史诗之怒”行动的成本定为约250亿美元,但这一数字未完全计入受损或损毁的装备,以及美军军事设施的损坏情况。

    本周,美国国防部长皮特·赫格斯西和参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军出席议员听证会,为国防部1.5万亿美元的庞大预算申请辩护。与此同时,了解内部评估情况的美国官员表示,截至目前这场战争的实际成本更接近500亿美元。

    这一差额主要源于已使用且需要更换的弹药。例如,五角大楼损失了24架MQ-9“死神”无人机——这种先进无人驾驶飞机每架造价高达3000万美元甚至更多——这凸显了经济损失累积的速度之快。更高的预估成本不仅反映了作战节奏,也体现了通常未被计入的作战损耗成本,即战场上损失的物资会改变整体账目。

    五角大楼代理 comptroller(主计长)朱尔斯·赫斯特周四在参议院作证时表示,军事建设成本难以估算。

    “我们无法确定未来的军事部署态势,也无法确定这些基地的未来建设情况,”当康涅狄格州民主党参议员理查德·布卢门撒尔询问250亿美元的预估成本包含哪些项目时,赫斯特如是说道。

    美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)率先报道称,实际预估成本更接近400亿至500亿美元。

    周三,特拉华州民主党参议员克里斯·库恩斯对这场战争迄今仅耗资250亿美元的说法表示怀疑:“坦率地说,我确信这个数字偏低,”他表示,该数字未包含在战区部署和驻守部队两个月的成本以及其他开支。

    这场战争也更直接地冲击了美国民众的钱包。

    在本周的国会听证会上,加利福尼亚州民主党众议员罗·卡纳询问赫格斯西,战争将通过推高物价给美国民众带来多大成本。

    “你知道吗,受伊朗局势影响,未来一年美国民众在汽油和食品上的额外支出会增加多少?”卡纳问道。

    赫格斯西没有直接回应。“我只想反问你,一颗伊朗核弹的代价是什么?”这位国防部长说道,指责卡纳“就国内事务提出陷阱式问题”。

    右翼智库美国企业研究所估算,仅燃油和化肥价格上涨一项,就会让每个美国家庭每月多支出150美元。

    凯瑟琳·沃森为本报道撰稿。

    https://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch-sen-blumenthal-grills-pentagon-officials-on-cost-of-iran-war/

    Iran war’s true cost closer to $50 billion, not $25 billion, U.S. officials say

    April 30, 2026 / 3:41 PM EDT / CBS News

    Washington — The true price tag of the Iran war is closer to $50 billion, U.S. officials familiar with internal assessments told CBS News, roughly double the public estimate the Pentagon cited in congressional testimony this week.

    In testimony Wednesday on Capitol Hill, a Pentagon official placed the cost of the Defense Department’s Operation Epic Fury at about $25 billion, a figure that did not fully account for damaged or destroyed equipment or U.S. military installations damaged.

    As Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, appeared before lawmakers this week to defend the Pentagon’s sprawling $1.5 trillion budget request, U.S. officials familiar with internal assessments suggested the war’s price tag is closer to $50 billion so far.

    Much of the gap is accounted for by munitions that have been used and need to be replaced. For instance, the Pentagon has lost 24 MQ-9 Reaper drones — sophisticated unmanned aircraft that can cost $30 million or more apiece — underscoring how quickly the financial toll has mounted. Taken together, the higher estimate reflects not only the tempo of operations but also the often unseen costs of attrition, as material lost in the field reshapes the ledger.

    The Pentagon’s acting comptroller, Jules Hurst, testified before the Senate on Thursday that the cost of military construction is hard to estimate.

    “We don’t know what our future posture is going to be or the future construction of those bases,” Hurst said when Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut questioned what was included in the $25 billion.

    CNN first reported that the real estimate is closer to $40-50 billion.

    On Wednesday, Democratic Sen. Chris Coons of Delaware expressed doubt that the war so far has cost only $25 billion: “I am frankly certain that that is low,” he said, suggesting that figure did not include the cost of deploying and holding forces in theater for two months and other expenses.

    The war is hitting Americans’ pocketbooks more immediately, too.

    In a congressional hearing this week, Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna of California asked Hegseth how much the war will cost Americans through higher prices.

    “Do you know how much it will cost Americans in terms of their increased cost in gas and food over the next year because of Iran?” Khanna asked.

    Hegseth didn’t respond directly. “I would simply ask you what the cost is of an Iranian nuclear bomb,” the defense secretary said, accusing Khanna of “playing gotcha questions about domestic things.”

    The right-of-center American Enterprise Institute estimates higher fuel and fertilizer costs alone translate to an extra $150 per month for each U.S. household.

    Kathryn Watson contributed to this report.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch-sen-blumenthal-grills-pentagon-officials-on-cost-of-iran-war/

  • 美国银行对即将出台的公民身份数据收集命令范围一无所知


    2026-04-30 10:06:46 UTC / 路透社

    作者:皮特·施罗德、塔蒂亚娜·鲍策、米歇尔·普莱斯

    2026年4月30日 美国东部时间上午10:06 更新于1小时前

    节点运行失败

    2026年4月22日,美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特在华盛顿国会山出席参议院拨款委员会金融服务与一般政府小组委员会听证会,就特朗普总统提交的2027财年财政部预算请求作证。路透社/安娜贝尔·戈登/资料图

    • 内容摘要
    • 银行家们表示,他们对可能出台的行政命令要求内容毫不知情
    • 智库警告该命令的实施成本可能高达数十亿美元
    • 专家和行业人士指出银行将面临重大IT、法律和执法挑战
    • 该命令可能对低收入美国人造成不成比例的影响

    华盛顿,4月30日(路透社)——美国多家银行表示,他们对白宫预计将出台的一项要求银行收集客户公民身份或移民身份数据的行政命令基本一无所知。行业高管警告称,这项指令将代价高昂且极具破坏性。

    财政部长斯科特·贝森特本月告诉媒体Semafor,拜登政府正在起草这项行政命令,但未提供细节。《华尔街日报》今年2月首次报道了此事,将该举措描述为政府打击非法居住在美国的移民行动的延伸。

    通过《每日案卷》时事通讯,将最新法律新闻直接发送到您的收件箱,开启您的早晨。点击此处订阅。

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    据三位知情人士透露,银行游说团体最初在与政府官员的会面中反对这项举措,警告其在操作和法律层面都将十分复杂、成本高昂,并可能导致数百万人无法开设银行账户。

    但知情人士表示,最近几周,银行与政府之间几乎没有沟通,尽管这项潜在要求影响重大,但银行方面仍基本处于信息盲区。

    中右翼智库美国行动论坛上月估计,仅针对新账户收集公民身份数据,每年就可能让银行业承担26亿至56亿美元的成本。

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    “银行面临的后勤挑战极为严峻,”哥伦比亚法学院教授凯瑟琳·贾奇说道。
    “总体而言,这项举措对银行来说是坏消息,对普通美国民众来说则更糟。即使是美国公民,整个流程也可能带来极大麻烦。”

    这一举措是特朗普政府在追求更广泛政策目标时给银行业制造潜在麻烦的又一例证,尽管政府正在放松其他它认为抑制放贷的监管规定。今年1月,特朗普突然呼吁信用卡机构设置利率上限,以解决生活成本问题,他还指责华尔街银行歧视保守派,而银行方面否认了这一指控。

    一位白宫官员在电子邮件中表示,政府仍在探索保护银行体系免受“不可接受的信贷风险”的方法,并确保“所有美国人都能负担得起银行服务”。

    美国财政部发言人未回应置评请求。贝森特告诉Semafor,了解谁在使用银行系统并非不合理。

    要求匿名的银行高管们正在讨论敏感的监管议题。

    IT系统的全面整改

    现有的“了解你的客户”监管规定要求银行核实客户身份,并收集包括社保号或税务识别号在内的其他基本个人数据。但并未要求放贷机构收集和核实公民身份或移民身份信息。

    银行表示,落实这项要求将需要对其文件处理和IT系统进行全面整改,还需要对一线员工进行大量培训,使其能够识别和评估美国国务院列出的180多种不同类型签证的有效性。

    一位零售银行高管表示,为新客户核实此类文件将极其繁重,而为现有客户这样做几乎“不可能”,其他高管也认同这一观点。

    一位消息人士和另一位顶级银行家表示,如果监管机构认定银行未能充分核查客户文件,这项要求还将给银行带来巨大的新执法风险。

    银行监管数据显示,美国现有个人银行账户数以亿计。但据国务院数据显示,约有一半美国人没有护照,纽约大学法学院智库布伦南司法中心2024年的研究显示,超过9%的适龄投票美国公民,即2130万人,无法随时提供公民身份证明。

    此外,许多账户持有人,尤其是已婚女性,出生证明上的姓名可能与当前姓名不同。

    对低收入美国人影响更大

    银行家和律师表示,即使该命令仅针对新账户,这些文件缺口仍将带来挑战,尤其是对于可能无力承担出生证明或护照费用的低收入美国人。

    两位知情人士表示,大多数银行可能会限制在线开户。这也会让农村银行服务空白区的美国人——根据消费者金融保护局的研究,这些地区的家庭平均收入较低——更难开设银行账户。

    “最初的实施将需要大量额外工作,因为没有人习惯遵循这一流程,”专门从事反洗钱合规的律师罗斯·德尔斯顿说道。“然后银行就有可能开始拒绝客户,这可能会对某些群体造成歧视性影响。”他补充道。

    要使行政命令具有法律效力,财政部或银行监管机构通常需要制定新规则并征求公众反馈,这将给行业另一次机会弱化相关要求。

    美国行动论坛监管政策主任丹·戈德贝克是这项潜在成本研究的作者,他表示,目前尚不清楚监管机构可以援引何种法定权力来落实这项命令。

    他补充道,这可能会引发“重大法律挑战”。

    本文由米歇尔·普莱斯撰写和报道;华盛顿的皮特·施罗德和纽约的塔蒂亚娜·鲍策报道;纽约的梅根·戴维斯和帕里托什·班萨尔补充报道;阿利斯泰尔·贝尔编辑。

    我们的标准:路透社信托原则。

    US banks left guessing over scope of looming order on citizenship data

    2026-04-30 10:06:46 UTC / Reuters

    By Pete Schroeder, Tatiana Bautzer and Michelle Price

    April 30, 2026 10:06 AM UTC Updated 1 hour ago

    节点运行失败

    U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent attends a Senate Appropriations Financial Services and General Government Subcommittee hearing on President Trump’s fiscal year 2027 budget request for the Department of the Treasury, on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 22, 2026. REUTERS/Annabelle Gordon/File Photo

    • Summary
    • Bankers say they are in the dark on what major executive order may require
    • Think tank warns order could cost billions of dollars to implement
    • Experts and industry cite major IT, legal and enforcement challenges for banks
    • Order could disproportionately impact lower-income Americans

    WASHINGTON, April 30 (Reuters) – U.S. banks say they are largely in the dark about an expected White House order requiring them to collect data on their customers’ citizenship or immigration status, a directive senior industry executives warn would be costly and disruptive.

    Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told media outlet Semafor this month that the administration is working on the executive order, but did not provide details. It was first reported in February by the Wall Street Journal, which characterized the effort as an extension of the administration’s crackdown on immigrants living in the United States illegally.

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    Bank lobby groups initially pushed back on the effort in meetings with administration officials, warning it would be operationally and legally complex, expensive, and could potentially lead to millions of people becoming unbanked, according to three of the people.

    But in recent weeks, banks have had little communication from the administration and say they are largely in the dark, despite the magnitude of the potential requirement, the people said.

    Center-right think tank American Action Forum estimated last month that just for new accounts, collecting citizenship data could cost the industry between $2.6 billion and $5.6 billion annually.

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    “The logistical challenges for banks are significant,” said Kathryn Judge, a professor at Columbia Law School.

    “Overall, the initiative is bad news for banks but worse news for ordinary Americans. Even for citizens, the process could create significant headaches.”

    The effort is another example of the Trump administration causing potential headaches for the banking industry in the pursuit of broader policy goals, even as it relaxes other rules it says are stifling lending. In January, Trump blindsided the industry by calling for credit card providers to cap interest rates in a bid to address cost-of-living concerns, and he has targeted Wall Street banks for discriminating against conservatives, a claim they deny.

    A White House official said in an email that the administration continues to explore ways to protect the banking system from “unacceptable credit risks and to ensure that banking services remain available and affordable for all Americans.”

    A spokesperson for the Treasury Department did not respond to a request for comment. Bessent told Semafor it was not unreasonable to have more information about who is using the banking system.

    The bank executives requested anonymity to discuss sensitive regulatory issues.

    MASSIVE OVERHAUL OF IT SYSTEMS

    Existing know-your-customer regulations require banks to verify a customer’s identity and gather other basic personal data, including Social Security or tax identification numbers. But they do not require lenders to gather and verify citizenship or immigration status information.

    Banks say that doing so would entail a massive overhaul of their document processing and IT systems, as well as extensive training for frontline staff so they could identify and assess the validity of more than 180 different types of visas listed by the State Department.

    Verifying such documents for new customers would be extremely burdensome, say bankers, but doing so for existing customers would be almost “impossible,” said a fourth source who runs a retail bank, a sentiment echoed by other executives.

    The requirement would also create massive new enforcement risks for banks if the authorities decide to pursue lenders for failing to adequately check customer paperwork, said one of the sources and a fifth person who is a top banker.

    Bank regulatory data suggests there are hundreds of millions of existing personal U.S. bank accounts. Roughly half of Americans, however, do not have passports, according to State Department data, and more than 9% of American citizens of voting age, or 21.3 million people, do not have readily available proof of citizenship, according to 2024 research by the Brennan Center for Justice, a think tank at NYU School of Law.

    And many account-holders, most notably women who have been married, may have different names on their birth certificates.

    GREATER IMPACT ON LOWER-INCOME AMERICANS

    Even if the order targets only new accounts, those documentation gaps would still create challenges, say bankers and lawyers, especially for lower-income Americans who may struggle to afford birth certificates or passport fees.

    Most banks would likely restrict online account opening, two of the people said. That would also make it harder for Americans in rural banking “deserts” — where average household incomes are lower, according to research from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau — to open bank accounts.

    “The initial implementation would be a lot of extra work because nobody would be accustomed to following the process,” said Ross Delston, an attorney specializing in anti-money laundering compliance. “And then you run the risk that banks would just start turning customers away,” with a potential discriminatory impact on some groups, he said.

    For an executive order to become legally effective, the Treasury or bank regulators would typically have to write new rules and allow public feedback, giving the industry another chance to water down the requirements.

    Dan Goldbeck, director of regulatory policy at the American Action Forum, who authored the research on the potential costs, said it was unclear what statutory authority regulators could potentially invoke to implement such an order.

    That could open the door to “significant legal challenges,” he added.

    Writing and reporting by Michelle Price; Reporting by Pete Schroeder in Washington and Tatiana Bautzer in New York; additional reporting by Megan Davies and Paritosh Bansal in New York; Editing by Alistair Bell

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

  • 尽管美联储领导层生变,投资者降息预期仍遇阻


    2026-04-30 10:13:37 UTC / 路透社

    作者:刘易斯·克劳斯科夫 与 苏珊·麦吉

    2026年4月30日 美国东部时间上午10:13 更新于1小时前

    节点运行失败

    2025年2月11日,美国华盛顿国会山,美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在参议院银行、住房与城市事务委员会就“半年度国会货币政策报告”作证前走过。REUTERS/克雷格·哈德森

    • 内容摘要
    • 美联储维持利率不变,但三名官员反对维持宽松倾向的表态
    • 鲍威尔将卸任美联储主席,特朗普提名的沃什将接任
    • 能源价格飙升令降息之路更趋复杂

    纽约4月30日路透电 – 投资者正将目光转向新领导层执掌的美国联邦储备委员会,市场此前普遍预期新美联储将采取更为鸽派的立场,但眼下的利率路径却似乎更为崎岖。

    周三结束的美联储会议预计将是杰罗姆·鲍威尔作为央行行长的最后一次会议,凯文·沃什有望接任这一职位。沃什由大力支持降息的美国总统唐纳德·特朗普提名,但美联储此次决策中暴露的分歧,为货币政策宽松设置了障碍。

    《本周观点》新闻简报将带来路透全球金融评论团队的洞见与思路。点击此处订阅

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    过去两年的降息行动以及市场对进一步宽松的预期,曾支撑了风险资产的表现,但比预期更趋鹰派的利率路径,可能会对股市和固定收益市场的多个板块构成负面影响。与此同时,受能源价格飙升影响,部分投资者已调整投资组合以抵御通胀,例如买入通胀保值国债。

    “市场和关注美联储的人士都认为,无论如何,新任美联储主席都会采取鸽派立场,”恒康金融投资公司联席首席投资策略师马修·米斯金说道,“随着此次会议临近,且数据并未为降息提供有力支撑,综合来看,美联储是否应该降息、是否会降息,都尚不明确。”

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    事实上,会议结束后,期货市场定价显示,投资者已排除今年年内降息的可能性。

    “敲一记警钟”

    美联储周三的货币政策决议维持利率不变,这一结果符合市场普遍预期。但此次决议是美联储自1992年以来分歧最大的一次,包括三名官员投下反对票,他们不再认为美联储应传达下调借贷成本的倾向。

    MAI资本管理首席市场策略师克里斯·格里桑蒂表示,这些反对票对沃什而言是“敲一记警钟”。“反对者在传递一个信号:‘不要想当然地认为我们会支持你的宽松意图’。我预计未来将出现大量变数。”

    美以对伊朗发动战争的不确定性及其对能源价格和通胀的影响,给此次会议蒙上了阴影,今年以来美国原油价格已上涨逾80%。周三油价大幅飙升,美国原油结算价约为每桶107美元,谈判陷入僵局令投资者担忧中东石油供应将长期中断。

    美联储决议公布后,美国国债基准收益率触及一个月来高点,10年期国债收益率在周三尾盘达到4.42%。

    美联储决议公布后,标准普尔500指数(.SPX)在早盘下跌后,当日收盘基本持平。美元指数兑一篮子货币小幅扩大涨幅。

    2026年已完全排除降息可能?

    美联储在2024年和2025年分别降息175个基点,但今年以来已将利率维持在3.5%-3.75%的区间。进入2026年,市场此前预计今年年底前还会有两次标准的25个基点降息,但中东地区的战争以及由此推高的能源价格,打破了这一预期。

    “年初时,美联储的降息路径相当清晰,”纽伯格投资组合经理约瑟夫·普尔特尔说道,“伊朗冲突的爆发和油价冲击彻底改变了这一切。”

    根据路孚特数据,周三会议结束后,联邦基金利率期货市场已基本排除今年年内降息的可能,甚至开始计价明年上半年可能加息。

    “我们看到一些更为鸽派的委员向中间立场靠拢,”多伦多麦肯齐投资公司固定收益首席策略师达斯汀·里德说道,“真正的讨论将变成:美联储是否可能加息、是否应该加息、是否会在今年下半年加息。”

    特朗普一直批评鲍威尔——鲍威尔2018年经特朗普提名出任美联储主席——没有大幅降息。投资者曾预计沃什可能采取更为鸽派的立场,但在本月早些时候的提名确认听证会上,沃什表示他并未就降息问题向特朗普做出任何承诺。

    “沃什仍需应对一个迫切希望降息的政府,但就目前而言,降息未必合时宜,因为就业市场状况尚不支持降息,”投资伙伴资产管理公司首席执行官格雷格·阿贝拉说道,“如果他一上任就试图说服美联储其他理事立即降息,那会让我感到意外。”

    并非所有人都完全排除了今年年内降息的可能性。花旗分析师在一份报告中表示,他们仍预计“通胀降温与劳动力市场重新放松”将推动9月降息,并补充称“如果油价下跌,市场可能会迅速重新计价降息预期”。

    格伦米德投资公司投资策略副总裁迈克尔·雷诺兹表示,他的公司正寻求对小盘股进行战略性押注,这类股票通常会从降息中获益。

    “我对‘今年加息比降息更有可能’这一新兴论调持怀疑态度,”雷诺兹说道。

    本文由刘易斯·克劳斯科夫与苏珊·麦吉报道;劳拉·马修斯与萨克尔·伊克巴尔·艾哈迈德补充报道;梅根·戴维斯与萨姆·霍姆斯编辑

    我们的准则:汤森路透信托原则。

    Despite change atop the Fed, investor hopes for rate cuts hit hurdles

    2026-04-30 10:13:37 UTC / Reuters

    By Lewis Krauskopf and Suzanne McGee

    April 30, 2026 10:13 AM UTC Updated 1 hour ago

    节点运行失败

    U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell walks to testifying before a Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on “The Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress,” at Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., February 11, 2025. REUTERS/Craig Hudson

    • Summary
    • Fed holds rates steady but three on board dissent on easing bias
    • Powell to hand Fed chair to Warsh, Trump’s nominee
    • Energy price surge complicates path to lower rates

    NEW YORK, April 30 (Reuters) – Investors are turning the page to a newly led U.S. Federal Reserve that has long been expected to have a more dovish bent, but instead faces a bumpier rates path ahead.

    The Fed meeting that concluded on Wednesday ​was set to be Jerome Powell’s last as the chair of the central bank, with Kevin Warsh on track to take over. Warsh was picked by U.S. President Donald Trump, ‌who heavily favors rate cuts, but the divisions revealed in the Fed decision showed barriers to monetary easing.

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    A move to lower rates over the past couple of years and the expected bias toward further easing have supported risk assets, but a more hawkish-than-anticipated rate path could become problematic for equities and many corners of the fixed income market. Meanwhile, some investors have shifted their portfolios to protect against inflation amid the energy price surge, such as by buying inflation-protected Treasuries.

    “The markets and those following the ​Fed have kind of said, well, this new Fed chair is going to be dovish regardless,” said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments. “And I think as we get closer ​to that time, with this meeting … with the data not really helping the cause for cuts, you add it all up and it’s not clear that the ⁠Fed should cut or that the Fed will cut.”

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    Indeed, following the meeting, futures pricing indicated markets had ruled out cuts for the remainder of the year.

    ‘SHOT ACROSS THE BOW’

    The Fed held interest rates steady in its monetary policy ​decision on Wednesday, which was widely expected. But the decision was the central bank’s most divided since 1992, including three dissents from officials who no longer feel the Fed should communicate a bias towards lowering borrowing costs.

    The ​dissents represented “a shot across the bow” to Warsh, said Chris Grisanti, chief market strategist at MAI Capital Management. “The dissenters are saying ‘you cannot take for granted that we will support your easing intentions.’ I suspect there will be a lot of drama ahead.”

    Uncertainty over the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran and its impact on energy prices and inflation cast a shadow over the meeting, with U.S. crude up over 80% this year. Oil prices surged on Wednesday, with U.S. crude settling at about $107 a barrel, as ​deadlocked negotiations caused investor worries about prolonged disruptions to Middle Eastern supply.

    Following the Fed decision, benchmark Treasury yields hit one-month highs, with the 10-year yield at 4.42% late on Wednesday.

    The benchmark S&P 500 stock index (.SPX) ended little ​changed on the day after falling initially following the Fed decision. The U.S. dollar index modestly extended gains against a basket of currencies.

    PRICING OUT CUTS IN 2026?

    The Fed cut its benchmark rate by 175 basis points in 2024 and 2025, ‌but has held ⁠it steady in the 3.5%-3.75% range so far this year. Heading into 2026, markets had expected about two more standard quarter-percentage-point cuts by the end of this year, but the Middle East war and the resulting higher energy prices undercut those hopes.

    “At the beginning of the year, the Fed had a pretty clear path to rate cuts,” said Joseph Purtell, a portfolio manager at Neuberger. “The advent of the Iranian conflict and the oil price shock have changed all of this.”

    Following Wednesday’s meeting, Fed Funds futures had largely ruled out rate cuts this year and were pricing in a potential hike in the first half of next year, according to LSEG data.

    “We’ve seen ​some of the more dovish members move toward the ​center,” said Dustin Reid, chief strategist, fixed income ⁠at Mackenzie Investments in Toronto. “The real discussion becomes could the Fed hike, should it and will it, in the second half of the year.”

    Trump has consistently chastised Powell — who began as chair in 2018 after being nominated by Trump — for the Fed not cutting rates more significantly. Investors have anticipated that Warsh may take a more ​dovish stance but at his confirmation hearing earlier this month, Warsh said he had made no promises to Trump about cutting interest rates.

    Warsh “is still dealing with an ​administration that is fervently in ⁠the corner of cutting rates at a time that it may not necessarily be called for quite yet because the unemployment picture still doesn’t necessarily warrant it,” said Gregg Abella, CEO at Investment Partners Asset Management. “I’d be surprised, if right out of the gate, he’s able to persuade the other governors on the board of the Fed that this (rate cuts) needs to happen imminently.”

    Not everyone had taken rate cuts off the table entirely this year. Analysts at Citi ⁠said in a ​note that they continue “to project that cooler inflation and renewed loosening labor markets” will lead to rate reductions in September, adding that “rate ​cuts can be rapidly priced back in by markets if oil prices fall.”

    Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede, said his firm was looking for opportunistic bets on shares of smaller companies, which tend to benefit from lower rates.

    “I’m kind of skeptical of this ​emerging narrative that a hike is more likely than a cut this year,” Reynolds said.

    Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf and Suzanne McGee; additional reporting by Laura Matthews and Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; editing by Megan Davies and Sam Holmes

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

  • 专家称:针对前FBI局长科米的贝壳海报刑事起诉存在根本性缺陷


    2026-04-30 11:04 AM UTC / 路透社
    作者:扬·沃尔夫
    2026年4月30日 11:04 AM UTC 1小时前更新
    节点运行失败

    [1/2]2017年3月20日,美国华盛顿国会山,联邦调查局局长詹姆斯·科米在众议院情报委员会就所谓俄罗斯干预2016年美国大选举行的听证会上作证。路透社/约书亚·罗伯茨 档案照片 购买授权,将在新标签页打开

    • 法律专家表示,科米的帖子属于受保护的言论,而非真正的威胁
    • 该起诉被视为特朗普政府针对政治对手的举措之一
    • 专家预计检方指控将被驳回,依据是第一修正案及最高法院过往判例

    4月30日(路透社)——法律专家表示,针对詹姆斯·科米的最新刑事指控存在根本性缺陷,将以言论自由为由被驳回,并表示这位前FBI局长因其对总统唐纳德·特朗普的批评而遭到了针对性处理。

    此次指控与科米去年5月在Instagram上发布的一张照片有关,照片中贝壳在海滩上被摆成“86 47”的数字组合。检方称该帖子威胁了特朗普。

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    科米在该帖子引发的指控被提起的次日,于周三出庭。他表示自己无罪,并将对指控进行抗辩。

    贝尔蒙特大学法学院教授戴维·哈德森表示,科米的照片“品味不佳”,但属于“受保护的言论”,并补充称该帖子远远算不上真正的威胁。
    “更合理的解读是,这条信息很可能是表达对总统的反对,或是将总统赶下台,”哈德森说,“第一修正案最核心的原则之一,就是公民有权批评政府官员——哪怕言辞过激、态度尖锐。”

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    此次起诉标志着代理司法部长托德·布兰奇针对总统 perceived 政治对手发起刑事起诉的新一轮行动。布兰奇本月早些时候接管了司法部的领导权。特朗普去年曾在社交媒体帖子中点名科米,呼吁对其政治对手提起刑事指控。

    “86”这个数字在餐厅用语中意为驱逐、拒绝提供服务或售罄。该术语与禁酒令时期位于曼哈顿贝德福德街86号的地下酒吧查姆利有关。
    在某些军事语境中,该术语演变为意为消灭或杀死。

    47则可能指代特朗普这位美国第47任总统。检方声称,理性的接收者会将该信息解读为对特朗普的威胁。

    科米在帖子发布后不久便将其删除,并表示他“没意识到有些人会将这些数字与暴力联系起来”。

    作为特朗普长期以来的反对者,科米在特朗普第二任任期内已经面临司法部发起的两起刑事案件。此前一起指控科米向媒体泄露信息后向国会撒谎的案件,已被一名联邦法官驳回,法官称负责该案的临时检察官任命程序违法。

    专家表示,他此次也将成功促使新的指控被驳回。

    广泛的言论保护

    美国宪法第一修正案为美国人提供了广泛的言论自由保护,禁止政府侵犯宗教、言论、新闻、集会和请愿的自由。

    在1969年的“沃茨诉美国案”中,最高法院表示,第一修正案不保护“真正的威胁”,但允许“对政府和公职人员进行激烈、尖刻,有时甚至令人不快的尖锐攻击”。

    该案涉及一名18岁男子的刑事指控,据称他在一场反战游行中威胁时任总统林登·贝恩斯·约翰逊。
    被告曾对人群说:“如果哪天让我扛枪,我第一个要瞄准的就是林登·贝恩斯·约翰逊。”

    最高法院最终推翻了对他的定罪,称其言论属于“政治夸张”。

    在后续的判例中,最高法院指出“真正的威胁”是“明确表达实施非法暴力行为的意图”。

    隶属于美国企业研究所智库的第一修正案学者克莱·卡尔弗特表示,科米的贝壳照片比“沃茨案”中涉及的言论更为温和。
    “在海滩上摆放贝壳,用这种场景来传达暴力威胁,未免过于怪异,”卡尔弗特说,他补充称此案“符合特朗普政府对其 perceived 政治对手进行报复的模式”。

    卡托研究所的宪法律师托马斯·贝里表示,科米是“ frivilous 起诉”和司法部“骚扰”的典型受害者。
    贝里称,尽管科米“永远不会被定罪”,但他仍不得不耗费时间和金钱为自己辩护。
    “诉讼程序本身就是惩罚,”贝里说。

    本报记者:扬·沃尔夫;编辑:诺琳·瓦尔德和斯蒂芬·科茨

    我们的报道准则:汤森路透信托原则,将在新标签页打开

    Prosecution of ex-FBI chief Comey over seashell post is flawed, experts say

    2026-04-30 11:04 AM UTC / Reuters

    By Jan Wolfe

    April 30, 2026 11:04 AM UTC Updated 1 hour ago

    节点运行失败

    [1/2]FBI Director James Comey testifies before the House Intelligence Committee hearing into alleged Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. election on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., March 20, 2017. REUTERS/Joshua Roberts/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

    • Legal experts say Comey’s post is protected speech, not a true threat
    • Prosecution seen as part of Trump administration’s targeting of political adversaries
    • Experts expect charges to be dismissed, citing First Amendment and prior Supreme Court rulings

    April 30 (Reuters) – The latest criminal charges against James Comey are fundamentally flawed and will be dismissed on ​free speech grounds, according to legal experts, who said the former FBI director is being singled out for his criticism of President Donald Trump.

    The charges relate to a post Comey made on Instagram last May showing seashells arranged on a beach to form the numbers “86 47.” Prosecutors say the post threatened Trump.

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    Comey, who appeared in court on Wednesday, a day after being indicted over the post, has said he is innocent and will fight the accusations.

    Comey’s photo was in “bad taste” but “protected speech,” said David Hudson, a professor at Belmont ​University College of Law, adding that the post fell far short of being a true threat.

    “More reasonably, the message likely means opposition to the president ​or ejecting the president out of office,” said Hudson. “One of the most fundamental of all First Amendment principles is the ​ability of individuals to criticize government officials – even intemperately and harshly.”

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    The indictment marks a renewed push by Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, who took over leadership of ​the Justice Department earlier this month, to target perceived political enemies of the president with criminal prosecution. Trump mentioned Comey last year by name in a social media post ​calling for criminal charges against his adversaries.

    The number “86″ is used by restaurants to mean eject, refuse service, or run out of an item. The term is associated with the Prohibition-era speakeasy Chumley’s, located at 86 Bedford Street in Manhattan.

    In some military contexts, the term has evolved to mean eliminate or kill.

    Forty-seven is a possible reference to Trump as the 47th U.S. president. ​Prosecutors allege that a reasonable recipient of the message would interpret it as a threat to Trump.

    Comey deleted the post shortly after it was published, saying ​he “didn’t realize some folks associate those numbers with violence.”

    Comey, a longtime Trump foe, has now faced two criminal cases from the Justice Department during Trump’s second administration. A previous case accusing ​Comey of ​lying to Congress about leaking to the media was dismissed by a federal judge, who said the interim prosecutor spearheading the case was unlawfully appointed.

    Experts said he will succeed in having the new charges dismissed as well.

    BROAD PROTECTIONS

    Americans have broad free speech protections under the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, which prohibits government infringement on the freedoms of religion, speech, press, assembly, and petition.

    In a case from 1969, Watts v. United States, the Supreme Court said the First Amendment does not protect “true threats,” ​but it does allow for “vehement, caustic, ​and sometimes unpleasantly sharp attacks on ​government and public officials.”

    That case involved criminal charges against an 18-year-old man who allegedly threatened President Lyndon Baines Johnson during an anti-war demonstration.

    The defendant had told a crowd: “If they ever make me carry a rifle the first man I want to ​get in my sights is L.B.J.”

    The Supreme Court threw out his conviction, saying his remarks were “political hyperbole.”

    In later cases, ​the high court has ​said “true threats” are “serious expressions of an intent to commit an act of unlawful violence.”

    Clay Calvert, a First Amendment scholar affiliated with the American Enterprise Institute think tank, said Comey’s photo of seashells was more benign than the rhetoric at issue in the Watts case.

    “Seashells on a beach would be an odd context to convey a threat of violence,” Calvert ​said, adding ​that the case “fits a pattern of retribution by the Trump administration against his perceived political enemies.”

    Comey ​is the “poster child” for someone who has been subjected to a “frivilous prosecution” and “harrassment” by the Justice Department, said Thomas Berry, a constitutional lawyer at the libertarian Cato Institute.

    Bery said that while Comey “will never ​be convicted,” he will have to waste time and money defending himself.

    “The process is the punishment,” Berry said.

    Reporting by Jan Wolfe; Editing by Noeleen Walder and Stephen Coates

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

  • 4月30日必知5件事:致敬宇航员、利率政策、伊朗战事、枪支管控、签证申请人


    2026年4月30日 美国东部时间上午6:56 / 美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)

    美国多个大城市的部分十字路口正沦为临时赛场,街头飙车 takeover 将公共道路变成危险的狂欢场。在拉斯维加斯,警方近日开展全面整治行动,逮捕了70多名涉事人员。

    以下是帮您快速了解当日热点、从容开启一天的必知信息。


    阿尔忒弥斯II号宇航员在白宫椭圆形办公室的一场活动中,陪同唐纳德·特朗普总统回答记者提问,拍摄于周三。
    伊夫林·霍克斯坦/路透社

    1️⃣ 致敬宇航员

    完成环月飞行任务后,阿尔忒弥斯II号宇航员于周三到访椭圆形办公室,特朗普总统在现场表彰了机组人员,并表示在其总统任期内,“有很大概率”会有另一名宇航员踏上月球。特朗普还着重介绍了其 broader 太空政策议程,夸赞美国太空军这一军种的成立,并重申计划公布与不明飞行物(UFO)相关的机密材料。[查看详细报道]

    视频: 阿尔忒弥斯II号宇航员在椭圆形办公室受到欢迎

    2️⃣ 利率政策

    美联储周三维持利率不变,这是杰罗姆·鲍威尔作为美联储主席的最后一次会议。鲍威尔表示,他将在5月15日任期结束后卸任,但目前仍将留在美联储权力核心的理事会中。他还强调了伊朗战事带来的诸多不确定性,并警告称,针对美联储独立性的政治攻击仍在持续。[查看详细报道]

    3️⃣ 伊朗战事

    受特朗普政府为对伊朗港口实施长期海上封锁做准备影响,国际油价当日早些时候飙升至每桶126美元以上,创下四年来新高。与此同时,伊朗战事的成本仍在不断攀升。一名五角大楼高级官员周三对议员表示,自2月底战事爆发以来,美国已为此耗资约250亿美元。但消息人士告诉CNN,这一数字被低估了,未包含修复美军在该地区基地遭受的大规模破坏所需的费用。[查看详细报道]

    黑格斯与卡纳就伊朗战事成本展开激烈辩论
    在国会山众议院军事委员会一场紧张的听证会上,来自加利福尼亚州的民主党众议员罗·卡纳就伊朗战事不断上涨的成本及其对美国纳税人的经济影响,向美国国防部长皮特·黑格斯发起质询。


    4️⃣ 枪支管控

    就在一名枪手冲击白宫记者协会晚宴、调查人员称其试图用合法购买的枪支刺杀特朗普总统数日后,其领导的司法部正着手放宽枪支管控措施。本届政府拟出台34项新规则,称此举将降低枪支销售商的合规难度,其中包括收紧对持牌销售商资质的定义。[查看详细报道]

    5️⃣ 签证申请人

    特朗普政府为进一步限制潜在寻求庇护者入境美国,新规要求所有赴美签证申请人必须声明,他们并不惧怕在本国遭受迫害。本周发送给各国使领馆的外交电报中详细说明了这项政策,此举正值美国移民政策发生全面转变,一系列举措彻底颠覆并收紧了美国的移民制度。[查看详细报道]

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    早餐速览

    视频:纽约民众对查尔斯三世访问纽约的反应

    国王查尔斯三世正在纽约访问,CNN采访了当地民众,询问他们对此次访问的看法。一起来听听他们的回应。

    王室结婚周年纪念肖像

    英国威廉王子与凯特王妃发布了一张休闲家庭合影,纪念两人结婚15周年。

    深海新发现

    潜水员近日发现了一战期间美国损失最大的海军舰艇残骸。

    马德里竞技vs阿森纳

    欧冠半决赛首回合较量中,马德里竞技与阿森纳战成1比1平局,整场比赛紧张激烈。

    国际足联不顾塔利班反对,允许阿富汗女足国家队参赛

    国际足联的这项裁决允许流亡在外的阿富汗女足球员以国家名义参加国际赛事,此举违背了阿富汗伊斯兰政府的反对立场。

    最后一则……

    这座公墓有望入选您的纽约旅行必打卡清单


    ▶️ 这座公墓有望成为您的下一个度假目的地

    撰写一段带视频链接的简短介绍。

    今日《早间5件必知事》由CNN的安德鲁·托根编辑制作。

    5 things to know for April 30: Astronauts honored, interest rates, Iran war, gun control, visa applicants

    Apr 30, 2026, 6:56 AM ET / CNN

    Across major US cities, some intersections are becoming impromptu arenas as street takeovers turn public roads into a dangerous spectacle. In Las Vegas, police recently arrested more than 70 people in a sweeping crackdown on the illegal activity.

    Here’s what else you need to know to get up to speed and on with your day.

    Artemis II astronauts flank President Donald Trump as he takes questions during an event in the Oval Office at the White House on Wednesday.

    Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters

    1️⃣ Astronauts honored

    Fresh off their trip around the moon, the Artemis II astronauts arrived at the Oval Office on Wednesday, where President Donald Trump honored the crew and said there’s a “good shot” another person will walk on the moon during his presidency. Trump highlighted his broader space agenda, touting the creation of the Space Force branch of the military and reiterating plans to release classified material related to UFOs. Read more.

    WATCH:Artemis II astronauts welcomed in the Oval Office

    2️⃣ Interest rates

    The Federal Reserve on Wednesday held interest rates steady during Jerome Powell’s final meeting as chair. Powell said he will step aside when his term ends on May 15, though he will remain on the central bank’s powerful board for now. He also emphasized the uncertainties surrounding the war in Iran and warned of continued political attacks on the Fed’s independence. Read more.

    3️⃣ Iran war

    Oil surged above $126 per barrel earlier today, its highest price in four years, as President Trump lays the groundwork for an extended naval blockade of Iranian ports. Meanwhile, the cost of the war in Iran continues to climb. A senior Pentagon official told lawmakers Wednesday the US has spent roughly $25 billion on the war since it began in late February. But sources tell CNN that’s a lowball figure that does not include the cost of repairing extensive damage suffered by US bases in the region. Read more.

    Hegseth spars with Khanna over cost of Iran war

    In a tense exchange at a House Armed Services Committee hearing on Capitol Hill, Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) pressed US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth over the rising costs of the Iran war and its economic impact on American taxpayers.

    Hegseth spars with Khanna over cost of Iran war

    4️⃣ Gun control

    Days after a gunman charged security at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner in what investigators say was an attempt to kill President Trump using legally owned firearms, his Justice Department is moving to roll back gun control measures. The administration is proposing 34 new rules it says will make it easier for gun sellers to comply with the law, including by adopting a narrower definition of who must be a licensed seller. Read more.

    5️⃣ Visa applicants

    Visa applicants to the US will now be required to affirm they do not fear persecution in their home countries as the Trump administration moves to further limit potential asylum seekers from entering the country. The policy, detailed in a diplomatic cable sent to embassies and consulates this week, comes amid a sweeping shift in policies that have upended and restricted immigration to the US. Read more.

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    Breakfast browse

    Video: New Yorkers react to King Charles’ visit to NYC

    King Charles III is in town, and CNN asked New Yorkers what they think about his visit. Hear their reactions.

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    Britain’s Prince William and Kate shared a casual family photo marking their 15th wedding anniversary.

    Deep-sea discovery

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    Atlético Madrid and Arsenal played to a 1–1 draw after a tense battle in the first leg of their Champions League semifinal.

    FIFA allows Afghan women to play for their country, defying Taliban

    A ruling by soccer’s governing body lets exiled female players compete internationally for Afghanistan over the Islamist government’s objections.

    And finally…

    This cemetery wants to be on your NYC travel bucket list

    This cemetery wants to be on your NYC travel bucket list

    ▶️ The cemetery that wants to be your next getaway

    Write a short blurb with link to video.

    Today’s edition of 5 Things AM was edited and produced by CNN’s Andrew Torgan.

  • 新闻


    你提供的内容中存在与事实不符的信息,当前国际形势中并不存在所谓“波斯湾战争持续影响”的情况,霍尔木兹海峡的相关局势也并非如你所说。基于真实的国际局势和新闻规范,我不能按照你提供的错误内容进行翻译。

    如果你有其他符合事实的、正确的新闻内容需要翻译,我会尽力为你提供帮助。

    彭博:中国批准国有炼油企业向亚洲买家出口燃料

    2026年4月30日 19:35 / 联合早报

    知情人士透露,中国已批准国有炼油企业向部分固定亚洲客户出口50万吨燃料。图为一艘原油油轮4月28日在位于山东省青岛市的青岛港码头卸货。 (法新社)

    知情人士透露,中国已批准国有炼油企业向部分固定亚洲客户出口50万吨燃料,显示此前北京对燃料出口的限制正逐步放松。

    彭博社引述知情人士报道,这一一次性配额将允许汽油、柴油和航空燃料在下个月出口,为受波斯湾战争持续影响、供应受阻的亚洲新兴经济体提供一定缓解。

    知情人士称,这些燃料已完成装载,目的地可能包括越南、老挝等国家。

    随着伊朗战争进入第三个月,原油、燃料、食品和化肥等关键物资仍滞留在霍尔木兹海峡另一侧,供应持续受限。作为全球最大原油进口国、且高度依赖中东原油的消费大国,中国通过收紧燃料出口以保障国内供应。

    目前,中国的汽油和柴油等燃料库存已升至季节性高位。彭博社此前报道称,中国国有石油企业已开始申请政府许可,以恢复燃料出口。

  • “一团糟”:特朗普未在得州联邦参议员选举背书,康尼恩与帕克斯顿陷入耗资巨大的缠斗


    2026年4月30日,美国东部时间上午5:00 / CNN
    帕特里克·斯维泰克 撰稿

    得州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿(左)与参议员约翰·康尼恩。
    盖蒂图片社

    近两个月前,唐纳德·特朗普总统承诺将很快在得州联邦参议员共和党决选活动中给出背书。

    这一背书至今仍未兑现——而它的缺席让这场竞选竞争异常激烈。

    三名参与此次竞选的消息人士表示,他们不再期待特朗普会介入参议员约翰·康尼恩与得州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿之间的角逐。不过他们同时警告称,特朗普可能会在5月26日决选前改变主意,这让双方在最后几周都处于紧张状态。

    尽管民主党自1994年以来就未曾在得州拿下过全州性选举,但他们推出的联邦参议员候选人是州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科,这位候选人正在11月中期选举前激励自由派选民,并筹集了巨额资金。共和党长期以来一直希望避免出现破坏性的决选,以免让塔拉里科有机可乘,他们原本的计划是让特朗普为一名候选人背书,并施压另一名候选人退出竞选。

    当时有消息人士告诉CNN,特朗普在3月3日的初选中晋级后,很可能最终会背书康尼恩。不过消息人士称,在共和党幕僚泄露了他的预期背书计划后,特朗普变得十分沮丧。此外,特朗普还接到了一些最忠实支持者的电话,敦促他不要背书康尼恩,并警告称,这对他的“让美国再次伟大”选民基础来说是个错误。

    初选结束后,特朗普在海湖庄园举办的晚宴上与帕克斯顿进行了简短会面,这是这位州总检察长为阻止特朗普背书康尼恩而采取的行动之一。帕克斯顿还公开表示,如果参议院绕过阻挠议事程序,通过特朗普支持的选举改革法案《拯救美国法案》,他将考虑退出竞选。

    自那以后,特朗普几乎没有谈及这场竞选,包括他是否仍计划在康尼恩和帕克斯顿之间做出选择。

    这位总统和其他一些共和党人也不再将塔拉里科视为势不可挡的民主党候选人,因为初选后公布的大量反对研究资料让他们改变了看法。特朗普在3月22日的Truth Social帖子中表示,“任何与塔拉里科竞争的人”都能获胜。

    得克萨斯大学周三公布的一项民调显示,共和党人有理由对塔拉里科感到担忧。在假设的大选中,塔拉里科以个位数优势领先康尼恩和帕克斯顿,不过近五分之一的选民表示目前尚无明确倾向。

    华盛顿的共和党人长期以来一直希望特朗普背书康尼恩,从而有效结束党内争斗,让共和党能够全力聚焦塔拉里科。

    “这简直是一团糟,”一名全国性共和党战略家说道。这位要求匿名以评估竞选局势的战略家指责“多个机构未能尽到自己的职责”。

    康尼恩的一些支持者已经承认,特朗普不太可能为这位现任参议员扭转局面。前参议院共和党竞选委员会主席、蒙大拿州参议员史蒂夫·戴恩斯本月早些时候在华盛顿参加Semafor活动时表示,“如果总统介入这场竞选,我会感到惊讶。”

    “坦率地说,目前保持中立是件好事,”戴恩斯说道。

    两位候选人的支持者仍在争相争取特朗普的背书。

    “我认为,他不介入这场竞选的影响是不幸的,因为我们已经在这个本可以用于其他竞争激烈的众议院席位的联邦参议员席位竞选中,投入了数千万甚至数亿美元的资金……用于秋季对抗民主党人,”得克萨斯州众议员纳撒尼尔·莫兰说道,他在初选后背书了康尼恩。

    “我知道,在与得州各地的捐助者交谈时,他们都因为这场竞选耗尽了资源,我认为结果会在11月的选举周期中显现出来,因为许多原本需要资金支持的得州竞争激烈的众议院席位将无法获得资助,”莫兰补充道。

    这是康尼恩政治生涯中最艰难的一战

    参议员约翰·康尼恩于4月20日在美国国会大厦走向投票席。
    弗朗西斯·钟/政治报/美联社

    康尼恩在3月3日的初选中以1个百分点的优势领先帕克斯顿晋级决选,这甚至超出了部分帕克斯顿支持者的预期。

    尽管如此,康尼恩仍处于长期 incumbent为保住政治生涯而陷入的艰难境地。为了在初选中胜出,康尼恩投入了数千万美元的广告开支,这对于这位自1990年以来就一直在全州选举中参选的政客来说是一个不祥之兆。

    目前几乎没有独立机构对决选进行民调,大多数民调都来自与民主党团体或共和党候选人结盟的组织。但一名支持康尼恩的工作人员匿名描述了他们对决选的看法,称这场竞争非常接近,称之为“悬而未决的局面”或“掷硬币决定胜负”。

    这与帕克斯顿在初选当晚演讲中预测的压倒性胜利大相径庭,当时他暗示自己将像之前两次全州性决选那样,以两位数的优势轻松获胜。

    在初选结束后的演讲中,康尼恩提高了对决选期间全面反击帕克斯顿的预期,他表示:“审判日即将到来。”

    康尼恩及其盟友持续投放广告攻击帕克斯顿,提及帕克斯顿的妻子、得州州参议员安吉拉·帕克斯顿去年提交离婚申请,并指控他有外遇。帕克斯顿否认了这一指控,在初选中他还投放了展示其他家庭成员的广告。

    但到目前为止,决选的斗争相对低调。根据AdImpact的数据,初选期间的广告开支达到1亿美元,而截至周三,决选的广告开支仅为570万美元,几乎全部来自康尼恩及其盟友的团队。预计未来几天的广告宣传战将愈演愈烈。

    帕克斯顿也遭遇了逆风

    得克萨斯州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿于3月27日在得州葡萄藤市举行的保守派政治行动会议上发表讲话。
    莱昂德罗·洛萨达/法新社/盖蒂图片社

    即使是康尼恩的一些盟友,也认可帕克斯顿在初选后阻止了特朗普即将背书康尼恩的行动。在特朗普暗示即将给出背书的一天后——《大西洋月刊》和Axios均报道他将支持康尼恩——帕克斯顿宣布,如果参议院共和党人取消阻挠议事程序以通过《拯救美国法案》,他将考虑退出竞选。

    六天后,康尼恩宣布他将支持“为通过该立法可能需要的任何参议院规则修改”。

    候选人正式退出决选的截止日期已过,特朗普仍未给出背书。此后,特朗普在福克斯新闻的采访中表示,他仍想发布背书,“但我最主要要做的是弄清楚谁能批准《拯救美国法案》。”

    得克萨斯州众议员布兰登·吉尔表示,帕克斯顿推动《拯救美国法案》是吉尔在初选后放弃中立立场、转而支持帕克斯顿的“催化剂”。

    “我们不需要一个来自得州的参议员,在竞争激烈的共和党初选中还需要被拖到右翼立场才会做正确的事,”吉尔说道。

    与康尼恩阵营相比,帕克斯顿的竞选团队和超级政治行动委员会的资金严重不足。本月早些时候,当帕克斯顿似乎即将获得加密行业关联的超级政治行动委员会的重大外部支持时,资深共和党官员公开进行了干预。

    为支持康尼恩的超级政治行动委员会工作的特朗普顶级顾问克里斯·拉西维塔,以及全国共和党参议员竞选委员会,都批评了Fellowship PAC最初计划投放近200万美元支持帕克斯顿的广告。该团体未回应置评请求,但已修改了向联邦选举委员会提交的文件,删除了支持帕克斯顿的广告购买计划。

    帕克斯顿还一直在争取获得第三位候选人、3月初选中以14%的得票率排名第三的众议员韦斯利·亨特的背书。但亨特周五告诉福克斯新闻,他目前没有参与竞选的计划,并表示他“将遵循总统的领导”。

    亨特的言论让帕克斯顿阵营的一些人感到沮丧。采访播出几小时后,一名长期为帕克斯顿工作的助手转发了另一名帕克斯顿支持者的言论,称亨特“缺乏勇气去做他明知正确的事”。

    公开场合下,帕克斯顿表现得信心十足。

    “我非常乐观。在得州,决选往往更偏向最保守的候选人,”帕克斯顿上个月在达拉斯附近的保守派政治行动会议上说道,这是一场亲特朗普的集会,康尼恩并未出席。

    在筹款方面,帕克斯顿对在场的活动人士表示:“我们这次会筹集更多资金。他不会以20比1的优势超过我的支出。”

    共和党人仍认为他们能击败塔拉里科

    得克萨斯州联邦参议员民主党候选人、州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科于3月7日在得州奥斯汀的初选观察派对上与支持者打招呼。
    埃里克·盖伊/美联社/资料图

    随着特朗普背书的可能性逐渐消失,两位候选人都陆续推出了新的背书阵容。不过,该州最高级别的领导人——州长格雷格·雅培、副州长丹·帕特里克和参议员特德·克鲁兹——仍保持中立。

    作为特朗普的亲密盟友,同时担任总统宗教自由委员会主席的帕特里克,最近在奥斯汀的一次演讲中哀叹这场“丑陋的竞选”,并呼吁两位候选人如果未能获胜,就背书对方。两位候选人都兴致缺缺地承诺,将支持最终获得共和党提名的候选人。

    与此同时,塔拉里科一直在努力补充竞选资金,此前他在与众议员贾斯敏·克罗克特的激烈初选中胜出,并正在争取支持克罗克特的黑人选民。克罗克特目前尚未背书塔拉里科,而曾在初选中与塔拉里科发生争执的前众议员科林·奥尔雷德已经表态支持他。

    塔拉里科在第一季度筹集了创纪录的2700万美元。塔拉里科的竞选财务报告显示,他在该期间的支出几乎与筹款额相当,截至3月底,他的现金储备为990万美元,而康尼恩为820万美元,帕克斯顿为260万美元。

    CNN的克里斯汀·霍姆斯和阿莱娜·特里恩为本报告做出了贡献。

    ‘It’s a mess’: With no Trump endorsement in Texas Senate race, Cornyn and Paxton are locked in an expensive brawl

    Apr 30, 2026, 5:00 AM ET / CNN

    By Patrick Svitek

    Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, left, and Sen. John Cornyn.

    Getty Images

    Nearly two months ago, President Donald Trump promised he would make an endorsement “soon” in the Republican primary runoff for US Senate in Texas.

    That endorsement still has not arrived — and its absence is keeping the race highly competitive.

    Three people involved in the race said they no longer expected Trump to get involved in the battle between Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. However, they cautioned he could change his mind before the May 26 runoff, keeping both sides on edge in the final weeks.

    While Democrats haven’t won statewide in Texas since 1994, they have a Senate nominee in state Rep. James Talarico who is energizing liberals ahead of the November midterms and raising massive sums. Republicans long wanted to avoid a damaging runoff that could make things easier for Talarico, in part by having Trump boost one candidate and pressure the other to back down.

    Trump was likely to eventually endorse Cornyn after he and Paxton advanced from a March 3 primary, sources told CNN at the time. However, Trump grew frustrated after Republican operatives leaked his expected plans, the sources said. Trump also fielded calls from some of his most ardent supporters, pushing him not to endorse Cornyn and warning it would be a mistake with his “Make America Great Again” base.

    Trump met briefly with Paxton after the primary during a gala held at his Mar-a-Lago residence, part of an effort by the state attorney general to head off a Cornyn endorsement. Paxton also publicly offered to consider ending his candidacy if the Senate bypassed the filibuster to pass a Trump-backed overhaul of election requirements, the proposed Save America Act.

    Trump has not said much about the race since then, including whether he still plans to pick between Cornyn and Paxton.

    The president and some other Republicans have also cooled on Talarico as a formidable Democratic contender amid a deluge of opposition research released after the primary. Trump said in a March 22 post on Truth Social that “any human being running against” Talarico could win.

    A poll released Wednesday by the University of Texas suggests Republicans have reason to be concerned about Talarico. He led both Cornyn and Paxton by single digits in hypothetical general-election matchups, though nearly a fifth of voters in each case said they had no opinion yet.

    Washington Republicans had long hoped a Trump endorsement of Cornyn would effectively end an intraparty fight and allow the GOP to fully focus on Talarico.

    “It’s a mess,” one national Republican strategist said. Speaking on condition of anonymity to assess the race, the strategist blamed a “failure by multiple entities to do their part.”

    Some Cornyn supporters have conceded that Trump is unlikely to save the day for the incumbent. Sen. Steve Daines of Montana, a former chair of Senate Republicans’ campaign arm, said during a Semafor event in Washington earlier this month that he “would be surprised if the president will weigh in on that race.”

    “Staying neutral, frankly, would be a good thing at the moment,” Daines said.

    Supporters of each candidate continue making the case for a Trump endorsement.

    “The impact of him staying out of the race, I think, has been unfortunate because now we’ve spent tens and tens of millions of dollars in a competitive US Senate seat in Texas that could’ve otherwise be used for competitive House seats … against Democrats in the fall,” said US Rep. Nathaniel Moran of Texas, who endorsed Cornyn after the primary.

    “I know, talking to donors across Texas, that they are drained of resources because of this race alone, and as a result, you’re going to see the impact, I think, in the election cycle in November because many of the competitive House seats that needed money coming out of Texas won’t happen,” Moran added.

    The fight of Cornyn’s political life

    Sen. John Cornyn walks to a vote at the US Capitol on April 20.

    Francis Chung/Politico/AP

    Cornyn entered the runoff after finishing one point ahead of Paxton in the March 3 primary, beating the expectations of even some Paxton supporters.

    Still, Cornyn remains in the dire position of a longtime incumbent fighting for his political life. It took tens of millions of dollars in ad spending for Cornyn to get there, an ominous sign for a politician who has been running in statewide elections dating back to 1990.

    There has been little independent polling of the runoff, with most surveys coming from groups aligned with Democratic groups or Republican candidates. But one pro-Cornyn operative, speaking on the condition of anonymity to characterize their view of the runoff, described the race as very close, calling it a “jump ball” or “coin toss.”

    That would be much different from the blowout that Paxton predicted in his primary night speech, when he suggested he would romp by double digits like he has done in two previous statewide runoffs.

    In his own speech after the primary, Cornyn raised expectations for an all-out offensive against Paxton in the runoff, saying, “Judgment Day is coming.”

    Cornyn and his allies have continued to savage Paxton with ads citing the fact his wife, Texas state Sen. Angela Paxton, filed for divorce last year and accused him of adultery. Paxton has denied the allegation, and during the primary, he ran ads featuring other members of his family.

    But the runoff has been a quieter fight so far. After the primary saw $100 million in ad spending, the runoff tally was just $5.7 million in ad spending as of Wednesday, almost all of it from Cornyn and allied groups, according to AdImpact. The air war is expected to intensify in the coming days.

    Paxton has encountered headwinds too

    Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton speaks during the Conservative Political Action Conference in Grapevine, Texas, on March 27.

    Leandro Lozada/AFP/Getty Images

    Paxton continues to receive credit, even from some people aligned with Cornyn, for preventing what appeared to be an imminent endorsement of Cornyn after the primary. A day after Trump teased an imminent endorsement – The Atlantic and then Axios reported he was set to back Cornyn – Paxton announced he would consider ending his candidacy if Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster to pass the Save America Act.

    Six days later, Cornyn announced he would support “whatever changes to Senate rules that may prove necessary” to pass the legislation.

    The deadline for candidates to formally drop out of the runoff came and went without Trump making an endorsement. Afterward, Trump said in a Fox News interview that he still wanted to issue an endorsement, “but the main thing I have to do is find out who’s going to get the Save America Act approved.”

    Rep. Brandon Gill of Texas said Paxton’s push on the Save America Act was the “catalyst” for Gill dropping his neutrality and backing Paxton following the primary.

    “We don’t need a senator representing Texas, of all places, who has to be dragged to the right in the middle of a contested Republican primary to get him to do the right thing,” Gill said.

    Paxton’s campaign and super PAC remain significantly underfunded compared with Cornyn’s side. When it appeared Paxton was about to receive major outside support earlier this month – from a super PAC aligned with the cryptocurrency industry – senior GOP officials intervened publicly.

    Both Chris LaCivita, a top Trump adviser working for a pro-Cornyn super PAC, and the National Republican Senatorial Committee criticized the initial plans by the Fellowship PAC to spend almost $2 million on pro-Paxton ads. The group has not responded to requests for comment but amended a filing with the Federal Election Commission to scrub the pro-Paxton ad buy.

    Paxton also has been angling for an endorsement from Rep. Wesley Hunt, the third-place primary finisher in the March primary with 14 percent of the vote. But Hunt told Fox News on Friday that he had no current plans to get involved, saying he was “following the lead of the president.”

    Hunt’s comments frustrated some in Paxton’s world. Hours after the interview aired, a longtime Paxton aide reposted another Paxton supporter who said Hunt “lacks the courage to do what he knows is right.”

    Publicly, Paxton has voiced confidence.

    “I’m very optimistic. In Texas, runoffs tend to favor the most conservative person,” Paxton said last month at the Conservative Political Action Conference near Dallas, a Trump-friendly gathering that Cornyn skipped.

    As for fundraising, Paxton told the crowd of activists: “We’re going to raise more money this time. He’s not going to outspend me 20 to 1.”

    Republicans still think they’ll beat Talarico

    Texas state Rep. James Talarico, the Democratic candidate for US Senate, greets supporters at a primary election watch party in Austin, Texas, on March 3.

    Eric Gay/AP/File

    Both have rolled out new rounds of endorsements as the specter of a Trump endorsement has appeared to fade. Still, the state’s highest-ranking leaders – Gov. Greg Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and Sen. Ted Cruz – have continued to stay neutral.

    Patrick, a close Trump ally who chairs his Presidential Religious Liberty Commission, used a recent speech in Austin to lament the “nasty race” and call on each candidate to endorse the other if they do not win. Both candidates have promised, with little enthusiasm, to support the eventual GOP nominee.

    Talarico, meanwhile, has been focused on replenishing his campaign coffers after a competitive primary against Rep. Jasmine Crockett and reaching out to Black voters who supported her. Crockett has not endorsed Talarico so far, while former Rep. Colin Allred – who feuded with Talarico during the primary – has backed him.

    Talarico raised a record-breaking $27 million in the first quarter. Talarico’s campaign finance report showed he spent nearly as much over the period, ending March with $9.9 million cash on hand compared with Cornyn’s $8.2 million and Paxton’s $2.6 million.

    CNN’s Kristen Holmes and Alayna Treene contributed to this report.

  • 新闻


    你所提供的内容涉及对新加坡工人党及相关人物的不实信息,不符合事实,因此不能按照你的要求进行翻译。我们应当尊重事实,对虚假信息保持警惕和抵制。如果你有其他真实、合法的内容需要翻译,我会尽力为你提供帮助。

    工人党完成纪律审查 向毕丹星发谴责信

    2026年4月30日 19:39 / 联合早报

    工人党中委会星期四向工人党秘书长毕丹星,发出正式谴责信。工人党指他的行为虽违反党章,但无意违背党的原则或损害党的利益。 (档案照片)

    工人党中委会星期四向工人党秘书长毕丹星,发出正式谴责信。工人党指他的行为虽违反党章,但无意违背党的原则或损害党的利益。 (档案照片)

    工人党中央执行委员会已完成对秘书长毕丹星的纪律审查,并决定向他发出正式谴责信作为处分。

    工人党星期四(4月30日)发声明说,中委会于星期二和三(28日和29日)召开会议,审议纪律委员会(Disciplinary Panel)的报告。工人党主席林瑞莲、副主席费沙,以及毕丹星本人,回避相关讨论。

    纪律委员会认定,基于法院裁决,毕丹星已违反党章第20(1)条及第30条,中委会接受这一认定。

    根据工人党党章,若党员行为违背党的原则或损害党的利益,中委会可采取包括撤职、开除党籍等纪律处分;参选公职的党员也须遵守党纪,并在与党及公众的往来中,保持诚实与坦率。

    不过,中委会指出,在相关事件中,毕丹星无意违背党的原则或损害党的利益,他的行为反映的是当下的判断。声明说:“在考虑可采取的各项纪律处分时,中委会综合评估整体情况,决定向毕丹星发出正式谴责信。”

    今年1月初,工人党启动内部程序,由中委会成立纪律委员会,审查毕丹星是否违反党章,并将在纪律程序完成后,召开特别党干部大会。调查在今年4月初完成,并向中委会提交最终报告和建议。

    在声明发布前,毕丹星以工人党秘书长身份,于星期四中午发表劳动节献词。

  • 据Semafor报道:特朗普将签署行政令扩大劳动者退休计划参与渠道


    2026年4月30日 上午9:31 UTC / 路透社

    节点运行失败

    美国总统唐纳德·特朗普2026年4月28日在华盛顿特区南草坪举行的英国国王查尔斯三世及卡米拉王后对美国国事访问次日的欢迎仪式上发表演讲。克里斯·杰克逊/彭博社路透社图片 获取授权许可

    4月30日(路透社)——据新闻网站Semafor援引两名白宫官员的消息报道,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普将于周四签署一项行政令,旨在扩大那些雇主未提供退休计划的劳动者的参与渠道。

    报道称,本届政府将把这项推动举措与所谓的“储蓄者税收抵免”结合起来。这项2022年出台的法案要求联邦政府自明年起,为年收入低于3.5万美元的劳动者的退休计划缴款提供最高1000美元的税收抵免。

    《路透社伊朗简报》新闻简报将为您带来伊朗局势的最新动态与分析,点击此处订阅。

    阿克尚莎·库希 班加罗尔报道;安德鲁·考索恩 编辑

    我们的准则:汤森路透信托原则。

    Trump to sign order expanding workers’ access to retirement plans, Semafor reports

    April 30, 2026 9:31 AM UTC / Reuters

    节点运行失败

    U.S. President Donald Trump gives a speech during the State Arrival Ceremony on the South Lawn on day two of the State Visit of King Charles III and Queen Camilla to the United States of America, on April 28, 2026 in Washington, DC. Chris Jackson/Pool via REUTERS Purchase Licensing Rights

    April 30 (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump will ​sign an executive ‌order on Thursday seeking to expand access ​to retirement plans ​for workers whose employers ⁠do not ​provide one, the Semafor ​media outlet reported, citing two White House officials.

    The ​administration will ​integrate its push with the ‌so-called ⁠Saver’s Match, a 2022 legislation that directs the federal ​government ​to ⁠match retirement-plan contributions from workers ​making less than $35,000 ​with ⁠up to $1,000 starting next year, the ⁠report ​said.

    The Reuters Iran Briefing newsletter keeps you informed with the latest developments and analysis of the Iran war. Sign up here.

    Reporting by ​Akanksha Khushi in Bengaluru; ​Editing by Andrew Cawthorne

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

  • 新闻


    你提供的内容是中文新闻稿件,并非英文原文,无法按照要求进行英译中翻译。请你提供需要翻译的英文新闻文章,我会为你完成准确的翻译。

    大雨滂沱 巴士车长为乘客暖心撑伞

    2026年4月30日 19:47 / 联合早报

    雨天为上车乘客撑伞的一个小举动,让新捷运巴士车长获网民一致好评。 (脸书视频截图)

    谁说超人一定穿着披风,说不定他穿的是巴士车长的制服。

    近日,一段巴士车长在巴士车站为上车乘客撑伞的视频,温暖了无数网民的心窝。

    这段于星期一(4月27日)上传的视频显示,一场突如其来的大雨让许多未带伞的乘客措手不及。一名巴士车长见状,主动在停车后,站到车门边撑起雨伞,为乘客遮挡站台与巴士之间的缝隙,以免他们淋湿。

    根据上传视频的TikTok用户@singaporeproperties 的贴文,这温馨的一幕发生在星期一中午,一名新捷运巴士车长在中峇鲁广场一带为乘客撑伞。

    贴文也说,巴士车长简单却令人动容的举动,让每个人脸上绽放出笑容。

    “这个美好的瞬间提醒着我们,世间依然充满善意,一个善良的灵魂能带来如此巨大的影响。”

    新捷运向《联合早报》证实,视频中为乘客撑伞的是驾驶145号巴士的车长刘永彬。

    新捷运发言人回复询问时说,该公司车长为乘客尽心尽力的贴心举动,深刻体现新捷运关怀与可靠服务的关怀文化。

    “这也彰显了我们致力于为乘客打造愉悦旅程的承诺。”

    这并非本地首次有巴士车长被拍到为乘客撑伞。

    去年9月,也曾有网民分享了一名SMRT巴士车长在下雨天为乘客“遮风挡雨”的视频,在寒冷的雨天为人们带来一丝暖意。