2026年5月21日 / 美国东部时间下午3:48 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻（CBS News）
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针对美国经济状况的消费者民调显示民众情绪悲观：最近一项哥伦比亚广播公司新闻民调的受访者中，三分之二表示感到经济压力，多数人认为飙升的汽油价格正在造成生活困难。
不过就目前而言，这类情绪尚未压制消费者支出——这一支撑经济运转的关键资金流动。背后原因何在？
沃尔玛最新财报印证了这一态势，这家全球最大零售商周四公布了又一个季度的强劲销售增长。该公司的低价吸引了各收入阶层的 shoppers，他们在生活必需品上的支出有所增加，尤其是汽油。其他零售商近期也公布了亮眼业绩，包括家得宝、塔吉特以及TJ Maxx的母公司TJX。
4月份全国零售销售额较上月有所放缓，但仍处于健康水平，尽管伊朗战争推高了汽油价格，仍展现出韧性。
但高油价的影响正在累积：据布朗大学研究人员估算，自2月底伊朗战争爆发以来，典型美国家庭的燃油支出已额外增加188美元。与此同时，4月通胀率达到3.8%，为近三年来最高水平。
悲观的消费者情绪与强劲的消费支出之间存在脱节，这一点至关重要，因为消费支出约占美国经济活动的三分之二。目前支出之所以能够维持，主要是因为富裕家庭仍在慷慨消费，以及退税规模扩大等临时性支持措施的存在。
经济学家警告，如果汽油价格持续居高不下，这一局面可能迅速改变。
“目前，关于经济及其走向的大量负面情绪让人们感到悲观。但现实是，大多数消费者确实有继续消费的能力，”全球零售管理咨询公司GlobalData的分析师、零售业务董事总经理尼尔·桑德斯告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻。
他指出，尽管消费者信心指数有所走弱，但这些指标反映的是人们的消费意愿，而非消费能力。
得益于今年春季退税规模扩大，许多家庭的经济状况依然稳定，支出也得以延续。美国国税局数据显示，2026纳税季的平均退税金额比去年高出约12%，典型退税额度为3276美元。
“这是临时性效应，但确实起到了帮助作用，”桑德斯说。
高收入购物者为何至关重要
尽管美国人仍在购物，但支出分布可能预示着未来的麻烦。数据显示，如今的消费者支出越来越多地由高收入人群推动。
经济学家将这一趋势称为“K型经济”，指的是富裕消费者与低收入家庭截然不同的经济境遇。“K”字的上半部分代表高收入美国人强劲的消费和收入增长。
经济学家表示，在K字的下半部分，许多普通收入家庭在汽油价格上涨和顽固的通胀面前面临艰难的权衡取舍。美国银行研究所近期在一份消费数据分析报告中指出，4月份，高收入消费者“继续保持强劲消费势头”，而中低收入消费者则缩减了可自由支配支出。
“可自由支配支出增长的最大差异出现在‘大额’服务领域，比如旅行，这或许反映了低收入家庭对度假计划的犹豫，考虑到工资增长和汽油价格的不确定性，”美国银行研究所的分析师写道。
许多高收入消费者也会光顾折扣零售商。沃尔玛首席财务官约翰·戴维·雷尼在周四的财报电话会议上表示：“高收入客户对众多品类的消费都充满信心，而低收入消费者则更加精打细算，或许正在应对经济困境。”
消费者能否持续支撑消费？
问题在于，如果汽油价格持续高企，消费者能否继续慷慨消费；如果高能源价格波及食品杂货等其他商品和服务，情况又会如何。对美国人而言，更大的挑战在于4月份工资未能跟上通胀增速，如果这一趋势持续，可能会削弱他们的购买力。
“如果汽油价格在过长时间内保持过高，我们将开始看到一些裂痕出现，”桑德斯说。“近几个月来，这种影响被退税增加带来的意外之财抵消了，但这种情况最终会消退。”
但他补充道，消费者拥有复杂的应对机制，这意味着一些人可能选择减少旅行以节省汽油开支，而非削减其他商品和服务的支出。
桑德斯指出，高油价也可能推高零售销售额，因为燃油采购被纳入统计数据，这意味着汽油成本上涨可能推高总销售额数字。
“低情绪会在很多方面体现出来，包括人们购物地点和购物方式的改变，即便他们仍在消费，”桑德斯说。
编辑：阿兰·谢特
Consumers are still spending, but cracks are starting to show
May 21, 2026 / 3:48 PM EDT / CBS News
By
Consumer polls about the state of the U.S. economy suggest the mood is grim: Two-thirds of respondents to a recent CBS News poll reported feeling financially stressed, while a majority said soaring gasoline prices are causing hardship.
For now, however, such sentiments have yet to quash consumer spending, the critical flow of dollars that keeps the economy humming. What gives?
Walmart’s latest financial results illustrate the pattern, with the world’s largest retailer on Thursday reporting another quarter of strong sales growth. The company’s low prices are drawing shoppers across the income spectrum who are spending more on essentials, particularly gas. Other retailers have also recently reported strong results, including Home Depot, Target and TJ Maxx owner TJX.
Retail sales nationwide slowed in April from the previous month but remained healthy, showing resilience despite the surge in prices at the pump driven by theIran war.
But higher gas prices are adding up: The typical U.S. household is paying an additional $188 in fuel costs since the start of the war in late February, according to an estimate by Brown University researchers. Inflation, meanwhile, reached 3.8% in April, its highest level in almost three years.
The disconnect between gloomy consumers and resilient spending matters because consumer spending drives about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. For now, spending is holding up mostly because wealthier households are continuing to open their pocketbooks and because of temporary supports, such as larger tax refunds.
Economists warn that the picture could change quickly if gas prices stay elevated.
“At present, there are a lot of negative vibes about the economy and its trajectory that are making people feel gloomy. However, the reality is that most consumers do have some firepower to keep on spending,” Neil Saunders, an analyst and managing director of retail at GlobalData, told CBS News.
And while gauges of consumer confidence have weakened, these measures reflect people’s willingness to spend more than their ability to spend, he noted.
Many households are also holding up, and continuing to spend, thanks in part to larger tax refunds this spring. IRS data shows the average refund is about 12% higher than last year, with the typical refund for the 2026 tax season at $3,276.
“This is a temporary effect, but it has been helpful,” Saunders said.
Why high-income shoppers matter
Although Americans continue to shop, the distribution of spending could point to trouble ahead. Data shows that consumer spending these days is increasingly driven by higher-income earners.
Economists have termed this trend the “K-shaped economy,” which refers to the divergent fortunes of wealthier consumers compared with lower-income households. The upward arm of the “K” represents the strong spending and income growth among upper-income Americans.
On the downside of the K, many households of modest means face difficult tradeoffs amid rising gas prices and stubborn inflation, according to economists. In April, higher-income consumers “continued to power forward,” while lower- and middle-income consumers pulled back on discretionary spending, Bank of America Institute said in a recentanalysis of spending data.
“The largest divergences in discretionary spending growth appeared to be on ‘bigger ticket’ services like travel, perhaps reflecting lower-income households’ hesitancy around vacation plans, given uncertainty over wage growth and gas prices,” Bank of America Institute analysts wrote.
Many higher-income consumers are also shopping at discount retailers. Walmart Chief Financial Officer, John David Rainey, said in an earnings call on Thursday that “the high-income customer is spending with confidence into many categories, while the lower-income consumer is more budget conscious and perhaps navigating financial distress.”
Can consumers keep up?
The question is whether consumers can keep opening their wallets if gas prices remain elevated, and what happens if higher energy prices trickle through to other goods and services, such as groceries. Heightening the challenge for Americans is that wages failed to keep pace with inflation in April, a trend that could weaken their purchasing power if it persists.
“We will start to see some cracks appear if gas prices remain too high for too long,” Saunders said. “Over recent months, the impact has been offset by a windfall from higher tax refunds, but this will eventually fade.”
But he added that consumers have complex coping mechanisms, meaning some might opt to cut back on travel to save on gas rather than curtail spending on other goods and services.
Higher gas prices can also lift retail sales because fuel purchases are included in the data, meaning rising gas costs can inflate topline sales figures, Saunders noted.
“Lower sentiment shows up in many ways, including changing where people shop and how they shop, even if they are still spending,” Saunders said.
Edited by Alain Sherter
REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo