更新于：2026年3月2日 / 美国东部时间上午10:23 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
美国股市周一开盘走低，因全球油价飙升，此前有迹象显示美国-以色列对伊朗的军事打击正在该地区扩大，引发了人们对全球石油供应可能中断的担忧。
标准普尔500指数下跌53点，跌幅0.8%，报6,826点；道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.9%；纳斯达克综合指数下滑0.7%。油价大幅上涨，国际基准布伦特原油周一飙升近9%，达到每桶79.31美元，为一年多以来的最高水平。根据FactSet的数据，美国标准西德克萨斯 Intermediate（WTI）原油价格上涨6.3%，至每桶71.28美元。
华尔街分析师周一警告称，不断升级的冲突可能扰乱全球石油运输，全球约20%的石油供应通过波斯湾狭窄入口处的霍尔木兹海峡运输。经济学家表示，任何中断都可能推高原油价格，增加美国消费者的汽油成本，并提高企业的能源支出。
摩根士丹利旗下E*Trade的交易与投资董事总经理克里斯·拉金在电子邮件中表示：“油价不确定性可能在很大程度上影响更广泛的市场情绪。”“目前疑问多于答案，但能源形势稳定可能产生积极的连锁反应，而对长期中断的担忧则可能产生相反效果。”
为何影响可能较为温和
一些分析师预计经济影响相对温和。资本经济首席市场经济学家约翰·希金斯在一份研究报告中指出，油价上涨带来的拖累可能不会像过去几十年那样严重，因为美国“已从石油净进口国转变为净出口国”。
希金斯补充说，因此，股市表现可能会好于20世纪70年代，当时1973-74年石油禁运导致油价飙升、通胀加剧，进而引发经济衰退。
关键“咽喉要道”
短期内，华尔街关注的是霍尔木兹海峡石油运输可能中断的问题。据美国能源部下属的能源信息署称，该海峡最窄处仅21英里宽，每天有数百万桶石油和石油产品通过。
伊朗控制着海峡北侧（沿其边境），阿曼和阿联酋控制着南侧。专家表示，随着该地区敌对行动升级，有迹象显示油轮正推迟通过海峡。
欧亚集团分析师在3月1日的报告中称：“卫星数据显示，由于石油公司和贸易公司担心伊朗可能会袭击通过这一海上咽喉要道的船只，霍尔木兹海峡的石油和天然气油轮运输几乎陷入停滞。”
他们补充说，即使霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输中断几天，“也会对全球供应造成重大扰乱”。
中国面临风险
伊朗每天出口约160万桶石油，主要销往中国。如果伊朗的出口中断，中国可能需要寻找其他供应来源，这也是可能推高能源价格的另一个因素。
周五公布的一份报告也令大盘承压：上月美国批发通胀率为2.9%，远高于经济学家预期的1.6%。
这可能迫使美联储推迟降息。降息将提振经济和投资价格，但也可能加剧通胀。
由Alain Sherter编辑
美联社对本报告有贡献。
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/how-iran-closing-the-strait-of-hormuz-could-impact-the-global-economy/
Stocks fall and oil rise as U.S. war in Iran rattles investors
Updated on: March 2, 2026 / 10:23 AM EST / CBS News
U.S. stocks opened lower on Monday as globaloil prices jumped amid signs thatU.S.-Israel military strikes in Iran were expanding across the region, raising concerns about potential disruptions to global petroleum supplies.
The S&P 500 dropped 53 points, or 0.8%, to 6,826, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average 0.9% and the Nasdaq Composite sank 0.7%. Oil prices rose sharply as Brent crude, the international price benchmark for crude, jumped nearly 9% to $79.31 per barrel on Monday, its highest point in more than a year. The price of West Texas Intermediate oil, the U.S. standard, rose 6.3% to $71.28, according to FactSet
Wall Street analysts warned on Monday that the growing conflict could disrupt global oil shipments, with roughly 20% of the world’s supply moving through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf. Any interruption would likely lift crude prices, driving up gasoline costs for U.S. consumers and raising energy expenses for businesses, according to economists.
“Uncertainty about oil prices may play a big role in determining broader market sentiment,” said Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley, in an email. “There are more questions than answers right now, but a stabilizing energy picture could have a positive ripple effect, while concerns about a longer-term disruption could have the opposite.”
Why the impact could be modest
Some analysts expect a relatively modest economic impact. The drag from higher oil prices isn’t likely to be as severe as in past decades because the U.S. “has switched from being a net importer to being a net exporter of oil,” noted John Higgins, chief markets economist at Capital Economics, in a research note.
As a result, stock prices are likely to perform better than during the 1970s, when the 1973-74 oil embargo caused surging oil prices and rising inflation, contributing to a recession, Higgins added.
Vital “choke point”
In the near term, Wall Street is focused on a potential disruption in the flow of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, which is just 21 miles wide at its narrowest point. The strait facilitates the transit of millions of barrels of oil and petroleum products per day,accordingto the Energy Information Administration, a branch of the U.S. Department of Energy.
Iran controls the northern side of the strait, which runs along its border, and Oman and the United Arab Emirates control the southern side. With hostilities in the region escalating, there are signs that tankers are holding off on traveling through the strait, experts said.
“Oil and gas tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has ground to a near halt, satellite data show, as oil firms and trading houses have put voyages on hold out of fear that Iran might target vessels passing through this maritime choke point,” Eurasia Group analysts said in a March 1 report.
They added that even a break of a few days for oil deliveries through the Strait of Hormuz “would cause a significant disruption to global supply.”
China at risk
Iran exports roughly 1.6 million barrels of oil a day, mostly to China. It may need to look elsewhere for supply if Iran’s exports are disrupted, another factor that could increase energy prices.
Also hurting the broad market was a report Friday showing that inflation at the U.S. wholesale level was at 2.9% last month, much higher than the 1.6% that economists expected.
That could pressure the Federal Reserve tohold off longer on its cutsto interest rates. Lower rates would give the economy and prices for investments a boost, but they risk worsening inflation.
Edited by Alain Sherter
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/how-iran-closing-the-strait-of-hormuz-could-impact-the-global-economy/