随着阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊在空袭中身亡，数名高级官员遇难，以及各派系争夺控制权，伊朗动荡是否会引发难民危机的疑问日益增多。
然而，根据美国移民研究所（Center for Immigration Studies）公认的国家安全和移民专家安德鲁·“阿特”·亚瑟（Andrew “Art” Arthur）的说法，考虑到伊朗的地理和环境，大规模难民外流似乎不太可能。
“这实际上是个有趣的问题，有几点需要记住，”亚瑟在最近的一次采访中表示。
“一是伊朗大约是得克萨斯州的两倍大。我认为，它大致相当于阿拉斯加州的面积。它是一个非常大的国家，我想那里有9300万人口，但它仍然是一个大国，大部分地区未受冲突影响，所以个人完全可以在国内重新安置并确保安全。”
他补充说，与阿富汗不同，美国和西方此前在伊朗没有地面部署，也没有人在该国境内提供援助。
“我们没有能力像拜登总统那样，用C-130运输机装满能找到的所有人，然后飞往美国。这是一个巨大的区别。”
2021年阿富汗撤离期间，喀布尔哈米德·卡尔扎伊国际机场一片混乱，美军飞机上挤满了难民，而塔利班武装分子则在道路上设置致命路障，让试图逃离的人充满不确定性。
这一行动导致大量未经审查的阿富汗人涌入美国，许多移民鹰派人士将国内出现的部分移民暴力归咎于此。
亚瑟表示，这种情况是罕见的，因为大多数难民不会或无法飞往“半个地球外”来逃避动荡。
“美国的阿富汗撤离行动、盟友难民安置计划和盟友欢迎计划，在美国历史上前所未有，因为一般来说，难民会在邻近国家重新定居，前提是他们能在当地重新安置，”他说。
本世纪的另一场主要难民潮——2011年“阿拉伯之春”期间的叙利亚危机——也是如此。
时任叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德以武力回应和平民抗议，导致约1100万叙利亚人在欧洲流离失所多年，最终只有一小部分人前往美国。
根据移民政策研究所的数据，奥巴马政府设定了通过难民重新安置接纳1万名叙利亚人的目标，截至2017年，全球注册难民人数接近500万。
美国的叙利亚人口中，很大一部分早在难民危机之前就已存在，有些甚至超过100年，例如宾夕法尼亚州阿伦敦估计有5000名叙利亚人。
关于伊朗可能发生的难民危机，亚瑟表示，实际上美国可以向邻国提供资源，但没有义务接纳难民。
“事情不是这样运作的，”他指出，在20世纪80年代的阿富汗-苏联冲突期间，阿富汗人迁往巴基斯坦，而美国从远处提供帮助。
“我们没有把他们带到美国，”他补充说，美国帮助执行禁飞区，以协助库尔德等结盟派系维持更安全的领土。
福克斯新闻数字版还向白宫询问了在中东国家再次出现动荡的情况下，是否会发生另一场难民危机的前景。
白宫将福克斯新闻数字版的问题指向了战争部长皮特·赫格塞斯（Pete Hegseth）最近对此事的评论，当时有人问他，像伊朗这样的冲突是否倾向于迫使数千人逃离冲突地区并进入美国，以及是否有任何“保障措施”来防止这种情况。
“我认为可以肯定地说，美国没有计划接纳一波新的中东难民，”赫格塞斯表示。
“正如总统长期以来指出的那样，如果有必要，该地区有很多国家有能力提供这种支持。”
“但我们当然没有计划这么做，”他说。
查尔斯·克里茨（Charles Creitz）是福克斯新闻数字版的记者。
他于2013年加入福克斯新闻，担任撰稿人和制作助理。
查尔斯为福克斯新闻数字版报道媒体、政治和文化。
查尔斯是宾夕法尼亚州本地人，毕业于天普大学，获得广播新闻学士学位。新闻线索可发送至 charles.creitz@fox.com。
Iran’s instability is unlikely to trigger a Syrian- or Afghanistan-style refugee crisis, a top immigration expert told Fox News Digital, even as questions mount over what comes next for the Iranian people once the fighting subsides.
With Ayatollah Ali Khamenei killed in an airstrike, several top officials dead and competing factions vying for control, questions are mounting over whether Iran’s turmoil could trigger a refugee crisis.
However, given the geography and environment in Iran, a mass refugee exodus appears unlikely, according to Andrew “Art” Arthur – a nationally-recognized national security and immigration expert at the Center for Immigration Studies.
“It’s actually an interesting question, and there are a couple of things to keep in mind,” Arthur said in a recent interview.
“One is Iran is about twice the size of Texas. It’s, I think, roughly the size as Alaska. It is a huge country, and I think there are 93 million people there, but it’s still a big country and most of it is untouched by the conflict, so it’s not like individuals couldn’t relocate in-country and be perfectly safe.”
Unlike Afghanistan, he added, the U.S. and the West don’t have a previous footprint on the ground and don’t have people inside the country offering assistance.
“[W]e don’t have the ability to do something like President Biden did where we load up C-130s with everybody we can get our hands on and fly them to the United States. So, that’s a huge distinction.”
During the 2021 Afghanistan withdrawal, chaos reigned at Hamid Karzai International Airport as U.S. military planes with refugees hanging off of them flew in and out of Kabul while Taliban forces created deadly roadblocks and uncertainty for those trying to flee.
The operation led to a huge influx of largely unvetted Afghan nationals into the U.S., which many immigration hawks blame for some of the migrant violence seen domestically.
Arthur said that exemplar is rare, in that most refugees don’t or aren’t able to fly “halfway around the world” to escape unrest.
“The Afghanistan evacuation operation, Allies Refuge and Allies Welcome, was completely without precedent in U.S. history, because, generally, refugees resettle in an adjacent country assuming that they can resettle in-country,” he said.
Such was true during the other major refugee flow this century, the Syrian crisis during the 2011 “Arab Spring.”
Then-Syrian President Bashar al-Assad responded to peaceful civilian protests with military force, spurring years of outflows of about 11 million Syrian nationals around Europe with a smaller proportion ultimately making their way to the U.S.
The Obama administration set a goal of 10,000 admissions of Syrians through refugee resettlement, while nearly 5 million were registered globally as refugees as of 2017, according to the Migration Policy Institute.
A good proportion of the U.S.’ Syrian population also predates the refugee crisis, some by more than 100 years, like the estimated 5,000 in Allentown, Pennsylvania.
Addressing the potential for any Iranian refugee crisis, Arthur said that, in practice, the U.S. could offer resources to neighboring countries but would not be obligated to take in refugees.
“That’s not the way that this works,” he said, pointing out that during the 1980s Afghan-Soviet conflict, Afghans relocated to Pakistan and the U.S. helped them from afar.
“We didn’t bring them to the United States,” he said, adding that the U.S. helped enforce a no-fly zone to assist aligned factions, such as the Kurds, maintain safer territory.
Fox News Digital also asked the White House for its thoughts on the prospect of another refugee crisis amid another bout of instability in a Mideast country.
The White House directed Fox News Digital to recent comments by Secretary of War Pete Hegseth on the matter, when he was questioned about the proclivity for such conflicts as Iran to force thousands to flee from the conflict zone and into the U.S. – and whether there are any “safeguards” in place to prevent such.
“I think it’s safe to say there’s no plan for a wave of new Middle Eastern refugees to the United States of America,” Hegseth said.
“I think, as the president has pointed out for a long time, there are a lot of countries in the region who would be capable of providing that kind of support if need be.”
“But that’s certainly not something we’re planning on,” he said.
Charles Creitz is a reporter for Fox News Digital.
He joined Fox News in 2013 as a writer and production assistant.
Charles covers media, politics and culture for Fox News Digital.
Charles is a Pennsylvania native and graduated from Temple University with a B.A. in Broadcast Journalism. Story tips can be sent to charles.creitz@fox.com.
