2026年3月2日 / 美国东部时间下午4:50 / CBS新闻
作者
梅根·塞鲁洛（Megan Cerullo）
记者，MoneyWatch
梅根·塞鲁洛是总部位于纽约的CBS MoneyWatch记者，报道小型企业、职场、医疗保健、消费者支出和个人理财等主题。她经常出现在CBS新闻24/7频道讨论自己的报道。
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美国和以色列对伊朗的袭击使人们的注意力集中到霍尔木兹海峡，这是该地区一条狭窄但战略上至关重要的水道，是全球石油运输的关键动脉。
华尔街分析师周一表示，自上周敌对行动爆发以来，通过该海峡的海运已放缓至涓滴状态，加剧了人们对冲突可能限制石油供应并大幅推高能源成本的担忧。英国海事贸易运营中心报告称，海峡两侧的多艘船只遭到袭击，并警告称船舶导航系统面临的电子干扰风险增加。
“整个地区的基础设施都面临风险，这不仅是蓄意袭击造成的，意外袭击也会带来风险，”Clearview Energy Partners董事总经理凯文·布克（Kevin Book）表示，”导弹拦截产生的弹片和碎片可能会落到设施上并使其瘫痪，因此在能源产量如此高的地区，这类冲突会带来诸多挑战。”
以下是关于霍尔木兹海峡需要了解的要点。
1. 什么是霍尔木兹海峡？
这条具有战略意义的海上通道位于伊朗南部边境，连接波斯湾与阿曼湾和阿拉伯海。长期以来，霍尔木兹海峡一直是重要的商业贸易航线，通常可输送全球约20%的石油和液化天然气。专家称其为原油的战略”咽喉点”。
约20%的世界石油供应通过霍尔木兹海峡。
Murat Usubali/Anadolu via Getty Images
该海峡长约100英里，最窄处宽21英里，允许全球最大的船只将石油和天然气从中东运往中国、欧洲和美国。大部分原油来自沙特阿拉伯、阿拉伯联合酋长国、伊拉克、科威特、卡塔尔和伊朗。
2. 霍尔木兹海峡目前发生了什么？
伊朗战争导致油轮通过海峡的运输几乎停滞，航运巨头马士基（Maersk）和赫伯罗特（Hapag-Lloyd）均表示暂停所有经海峡的运输。
结果，周一油价飙升，市场担忧该地区原油供应长期中断可能大幅推高包括美国汽油价格在内的能源成本。
“实际上已经关闭，因为没人敢通行，”能源市场分析机构Global Risk Management首席分析师阿恩·洛曼·拉斯穆森（Arne Lohmann Rasmussen）告诉CBS新闻，”你可能会遭到袭击，而且无法获得保险或保险成本极高，因此必须等到安全形势好转。”
“如果海峡的油气运输中断，将对市场产生重大影响，”他补充道，”虽然没有实际封锁，但伊朗的威胁以及无人机和导弹袭击意味着油轮不会通过海峡。”
分析师表示，未来关键问题是战争持续时间以及海峡何时恢复通航安全。
“油轮运输量减少如果持续一周左右将具有历史意义，超过一周则对石油市场具有划时代影响，油价将上涨至稀缺供应水平，并对金融市场产生冲击，”标普全球原油研究主管吉姆·伯基德（Jim Burkhard）在报告中表示。
3. 如果海峡关闭，油价可能上涨至多高？
分析师称，随着美国和以色列削弱伊朗的海军及其他军事能力，伊朗可能难以无限期阻止霍尔木兹海峡的船舶交通。专家指出，封锁伊朗石油出口至海外市场也将严重破坏伊朗脆弱的经济。
“伊朗基本上有两种关闭海峡的方式：骚扰或攻击船只，或布设水雷，”Clearview Energy的布克告诉美联社，”但没有海军，这两者都难以实现。”
但Global Risk Management的拉斯穆森表示，海峡长期关闭可能导致油价飙升。
“目前只有几天时间，但如果延长至数周或数月，后果可能相当严重，油价可能突破三位数，”他告诉CBS新闻，”届时将严重拖累全球经济，甚至可能引发衰退。从这个意义上说，这是一种强大的武器。”
油价比肩甚至超过每桶100美元并非必然。金融数据提供商PitchBook高级能源分析师黄 Benny Wong 指出，美国目前石油供应过剩，如果海峡运输仅中断几天，消费者将不会受到油价上涨的影响。
他表示，美国是全球最大石油生产国且储备增加，而近年来受全球经济增长放缓影响，全球石油需求疲软。
4. 是否有替代霍尔木兹海峡的路线？
原本通过霍尔木兹海峡海运的石油可通过其他路线出口。
这些替代路线包括：
- 东西管道（Petroline）：沙特阿拉伯一条近750英里长的管道，将石油输送至红海港口；
- 阿布扎比原油管道：阿拉伯联合酋长国一条约400英里长的管道，将石油运往阿曼湾的设施。
然而，专家表示，这些替代路线只能满足通常每日通过霍尔木兹海峡运输量的一小部分。
“没有真正的替代这种运输量的方案，”黄 Benny Wong 表示。
由 Alain Sherter 编辑
美联社对本文亦有贡献。
Strait of Hormuz ship traffic slows to a crawl. Here’s what to know about the key oil waterway.
March 2, 2026 / 4:50 PM EST / CBS News
By
Megan Cerullo Reporter, MoneyWatch
Megan Cerullo is a New York-based reporter for CBS MoneyWatch covering small business, workplace, health care, consumer spending and personal finance topics. She regularly appears on CBS News 24/7 to discuss her reporting.
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The U.S. and Israel attacks on Iran are focusing attention on the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but strategically vital waterway in the region that serves as a key artery for global oil shipments.
Marine traffic through the strait has slowed to a trickle since the outbreak of hostilities last week, heightening concerns that the conflict could constrain oil supplies and sharply drive up energy costs, Wall Street analysts said on Monday. The U.K. Maritime Trade Operations Center reported attacks on several vessels in the area on either side of the strait and warned of elevated electronic interference to ship navigation systems.
“Infrastructure is at risk throughout the region, and it’s not just at risk because of deliberate attacks, but also inadvertent attacks,” said Kevin Book, managing director at Clearview Energy Partners. “Shrapnel and debris from missile interceptions can fall onto facilities and disable them too, and so there are a number of challenges that come from this kind of conflict in an area with so much energy production.”
Here’s what to know about the Strait of Hormuz.
What is the Strait of Hormuz?
The strategic sea passage, located on Iran’s southern border, connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. Long an important commercial trade route, the Strait of Hormuz ordinarily enables the flow of about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Experts describe it as a strategic “choke-point” for crude.
Roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply flows through the critical Strait of Hormuz. Murat Usubali/Anadolu via Getty Images
The strait — almost 100 miles long and 21 miles wide at its narrowest point — allows the world’s largest vessels to transport oil and gas from the Middle East to China, Europe and the U.S. Most of that crude comes from Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and Iran.
What is happening in the Strait of Hormuz?
The Iran war has brought the passage of oil tankers through the strait to a virtual standstill, with shipping giants Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd saying they were suspending all shipments through the strait.
As a result, oil prices spiked on Monday on concerns that a prolonged disruption of crude supplies in the region could sharply boost energy costs, including U.S. gas prices.
“It is de facto closed in that no one dares to go through,” Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management, a provider of energy market insights, told CBS News. “You can be attacked, and you can’t get insurance or it is extremely expensive, so you have to wait until the security situation is better.”
“If oil and gas coming from the strait is cut off, that has significant ramifications for the market,” he added. “While there is no physical blockade, threats from the Iranians, plus drone and missile attacks, mean tankers are not going through the strait.”
A critical question moving forward is the duration of the war and how long the strait remains too dangerous to traverse, analysts said.
“If the reduction in tanker traffic continues for a week or so, it will be historic. Beyond that, it would be epochal for the oil market with prices rising to ration scarce supply and impacts in financial markets,” S&P Global head of crude oil research Jim Burkhard said in a report.
How high could oil prices rise if the strait remains closed?
Iran could struggle to indefinitely throttle ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz as the U.S. and Israel degrade the country’s navy and other military capabilities, according to analysts. Blocking Iranian oil from being exported to markets overseas would also badly damage the company’s fragile economy, experts note.
“Iran has essentially two ways to close the strait. One is to harass or attack ships, and the other is to lay down mines,” Book of Clearview Energy told the Associated Press. “And without a navy, both of those things would be difficult.”
But an extended closure of the strait would likely cause oil prices to skyrocket, Rasmussen of Global Risk Management said.
“So far, it has just been a few days, but if this extends for weeks or months, the ramifications could be pretty severe, and we could see oil prices in the triple digits,” he told CBS News. “Then, there will be a significant drag on the world economy, and it could potentially trigger a recession. So in that sense, it’s a powerful weapon.”
Oil approaching or exceeding $100 a barrel is not a certainty. Benny Wong, senior energy analyst at Pitchbook, a provider of financial data and analysis, noted that the U.S. currently has a glut of oil that will insulate consumers from rising prices if tanker traffic through the strait is shut down for only a few days.
The U.S. is today the world’s largest oil producer and has boosted its reserves, while global oil demand has been soft in recent years amid tepid world economic growth, he said.
Are there alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz?
Oil that ordinarily would pass through the Strait of Hormuz by ship could be exported via other routes.
Those include the East-West Pipeline, also known as Petroline, a nearly 750-mile-long pipeline in Saudi Arabia that delivers oil to ports on the Red Sea. Shipments could also be diverted to the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline, a roughly 400-mile pipeline in the United Arab Emirates that transports oil to a facility on the Gulf of Oman.
Yet such alternative routes can only accommodate a fraction of the volume of oil that ordinarily passes through the Strait of Hormuz on a daily basis, according to experts.
“There are no meaningful alternatives to that flow,” Wong said.
Edited by Alain Sherter
The Associated Press contributed to this report.