2026年3月2日 / 美国东部时间下午5:01 / CBS新闻
与伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊的命运以及美国在伊朗发动军事打击的时机相关的热门预测市场投注，因可能存在内幕交易和对死亡下注的伦理问题而受到审视。
近几周，Kalshi和Polymarket的用户纷纷涌入这些平台，就可能涉及伊朗的行动投注数百万美元。例如，1月份一份Polymarket合约就美国或以色列是否会率先打击伊朗的问题吸引了400万美元的投注。
有关伊朗的投注已为部分用户带来巨额收益。根据Polymarket的数据，一位使用账户名“Magamyman”的交易员在关于美国和以色列对伊朗发动打击的时机的投注中获利近60万美元。
这些投注的时机引发一些立法者质疑，这些投注是否基于内幕信息。来自康涅狄格州的民主党参议员克里斯·墨菲誓言将提出立法来遏制此类做法。与此同时，人们对允许用户就某些问题进行投机的伦理担忧日益加剧。
特朗普总统宣布哈梅内伊在周六由美国和以色列领导的打击中死亡。伊朗官员当天晚些时候证实了他的死亡。
“这是合法的，简直太疯狂了”
在Polymarket用户对美国打击伊朗的时机下注后，可能存在内幕交易的担忧浮出水面。交易员在该平台名为“美国将在…之前打击伊朗？”的合约上投注了超过50万美元。
在区块链分析公司Bubblemaps在X平台上发布“六名疑似内部人员在预测美国对伊朗打击时下注120万美元”后，审视进一步升级。Bubblemaps表示，交易员在打击前几小时下注“是”。《华尔街日报》称，一名用户投注2.6万美元，赢得超过20万美元。
康涅狄格州的墨菲参议员在X平台上回应Bubblemaps的帖子时写道：“这是合法的，这太疯狂了。特朗普身边的人正从战争和死亡中获利。我将尽快提出立法禁止这种行为。”
参议员办公室和白宫未立即回应置评请求。
“光天化日之下的内幕交易。这毫无疑问应该是非法的，”亚利桑那州民主党参议员鲁本·加列戈3月1日在社交媒体上写道。
加列戈未立即回应置评请求。
“对死亡下注？”
一些批评者表示，预测市场对伊朗最高领袖命运的投注也引发了伦理问题。专注于金融改革的无党派倡导组织Better Markets的政策主任兼首席运营官阿曼达·菲舍尔在2月28日的社交媒体帖子中表示，此类合约“或多或少是在提供暗杀的代理市场”。
一份关于哈梅内伊被罢免伊朗领导人职位时机的Kalshi合约交易量接近5500万美元，而Polymarket的合约交易量超过5800万美元。
预测市场用户对政治、体育和许多其他事件的结果进行金融投注。这涉及购买每份价格在0至1美元之间的“合约”，反映交易员认为可能发生的事件的0%至100%概率。用户可以在事件发生前交易这些合约，预测市场在交易双方之间进行匹配。
投注正确的用户将获得赔付。如果交易员的投注错误，他们将一无所获并损失投注金额。
Kalshi的“死亡除外条款”
Kalshi告诉CBS新闻，它不允许客户就公众人物的死亡进行投注。公司发言人在电子邮件中表示：“该公司在这个市场上采取了一切预防措施，确保人们无法就死亡结果进行交易。”
Kalshi联合创始人塔雷克·曼苏尔在3月1日的社交媒体帖子中写道，关于哈梅内伊是否会“下台”的Kalshi合约包含一个“死亡除外条款”，旨在防止市场实际上成为对其死亡的投注。
曼苏尔指出，该除外条款规定，如果一位领导人因死亡而“下台”，市场将立即结算并根据该人死亡前的最后交易价格进行赔付。
他补充说：“死亡除外条款很重要；作为一家受联邦监管的预测市场，我们有责任且认为不应该允许直接从战争、暗杀、恐怖主义或其他暴力结果中获利。”
Kalshi表示，它也不提供有关军事打击的市场，因为根据《商品交易法》，军事打击相关合约是非法的。“唯一提供此类市场的平台是不受美国执法机构管辖的离岸、未受监管平台，”一位发言人在电子邮件中表示。
Polymarket未回应置评请求。其关于哈梅内伊的合约显示“正在最终审查中”。
立法者的担忧
在伊朗战争爆发前，一些立法者表达了对这些平台通过举办某些合约煽动暴力或构成国家安全风险的担忧。
六位参议员在给监管预测市场的商品期货交易委员会的一封信中要求该机构重申将“明确禁止任何解决方式或与个人死亡密切相关的合约”。立法者给予该机构3月9日前的回应期限。
专注于安全和公平预测市场的行业组织“预测市场联盟”在X平台上回应CNBC关于这封信的文章时表示：“我们同意涉及死亡的合约不应出现在美国交易所。”
商品期货交易委员会已经禁止与恐怖主义、暗杀和战争相关的合约，未立即回应置评请求。
Kalshi的内幕交易禁令
今年早些时候，另一份Polymarket投注引发了类似的强烈反对。一名交易员在特朗普总统宣布罢免前，就前委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗被抓捕下注。
当时，专家表示，这位用户在投注中获利43.6万美元，可能获得了有关美国行动的机密信息。
与此同时，Kalshi上月暂停并处罚了两名内幕交易者，其中包括受欢迎的YouTube博主MrBeast的一名员工。Kalshi的声明称，与MrBeast视频相关的投注因“在低概率市场中近乎完美的交易成功率”被其监控团队标记。
编辑：艾米·皮基
Prediction markets draw scrutiny over Iran bets: “Insider trading in broad daylight,” senator says
March 2, 2026 / 5:01 PM EST / CBS News
Wagers on popular prediction markets tied to the fate of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the timing of U.S. military strikes in the country are drawing scrutiny over possible insider trading and the ethics of betting on death.
Users of Kalshi and Polymarket have flocked to the platforms in recent weeks to wager millions on potential actions involving Iran. For instance, one Polymarket contract from January drew $4 million in bets on whether the U.S. or Israel would strike Iran first.
Wagers about Iran have translated to windfalls for some users. One trader, under the account name “Magamyman,” made nearly $600,000 on the timing of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, according to data from Polymarket.
The timing of these bets is prompting some lawmakers to question whether the wagers were made based on inside information, with Sen. Chris Murphy, a Democrat from Connecticut, vowing to introduce legislation to curb such practices. At the same time, ethical concerns are growing over allowing users to speculate on certain issues.
President Trump announced that Khamenei was killed in U.S. and Israel-led strikes on Saturday. Iranian officials confirmed his death later that day.
“It’s insane this is legal”
Concerns over possible insider trading surfaced after Polymarket users placed bets on the timing of U.S. strikes on Iran. Traders wagered over half a million dollars on the platform’s contract entitled “US strikes Iran by…?”.
Scrutiny escalated after Bubblemaps, a blockchain analytics firm, posted on X that “six suspected insiders made $1.2M betting on a U.S. strike on Iran.” Bubblemaps said traders bet “yes” hours before the strike. One user bet $26,000 and won more than $200,000, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Sen. Murphy of Connecticut responded to Bubblemaps’s post on X writing, “It’s insane this is legal. People around Trump are profiting off war and death. I’m introducing legislation ASAP to ban this.”
The senator’s office and the White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
“Insider trading in broad daylight. This should be illegal no question,” Senator Ruben Gallego, a Democrat from Arizona, wrote March 1 on social media.
Gallego didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Betting on death?
Some critics said that prediction market bets on the fate of Iran’s supreme leader also raised ethical questions. Such contracts are “more or less offering a proxy market on assassination,” said Amanda Fischer, the policy director and chief operating officer for Better Markets, a nonpartisan advocacy group focused on financial reform, in a Feb. 28 social media post.
A Kalshi contract on the timing of Khamenei’s ouster as Iran’s leader drew nearly $55 million in trade volume, while Polymarket’s contract generated more than $58 million.
Prediction market users place financial bets on the outcome of political, sporting and many other events. That involves purchasing a “contract” ranging in price from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what traders think could happen. Users may trade these contracts until the event occurs, with prediction markets matching buyers and sellers on either side of a trade.
Users who bet correctly get paid out. If the trader’s bet was wrong, they get nothing and lose whatever amount they wagered.
Kalshi’s carveout
Kalshi told CBS News it does not allow customers to place bets on the death of public figures. The company “included every precaution on this market to make sure people could not trade on the outcome of death,” a company spokesperson said in an email.
The Kalshi contract about whether Khamenei would be “out” as Iran’s leader included a “death carveout,” intended to prevent the market from effectively becoming a bet on his death, Kalshi co-founder Tarek Mansour wrote in a March 1 social media post.
That carveout states that if a leader is “out” due to their death, the market will immediately resolve and pay out based on the last traded price before the person’s demise, Mansour noted.
Mansour noted that Kalshi highlighted this carveout on the contract’s page to alert traders about the exception.
“Death carveouts are important; as a federally regulated prediction market, we are required and feel it is important not to enable direct profiting from war, assassination, terrorism or other violent outcomes,” he added.
Kalshi said it also doesn’t offer markets on military strikes, as they are illegal under the Commodities Exchange Act. “The only platforms that do offer them are offshore, unregulated platforms outside of the reach of U.S. law enforcement,” a spokesperson said in an email.
Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment. The platform’s contract on Khamenei says it’s under “final review.”
Lawmakers’ concerns
Before the war in Iran began, some lawmakers expressed concern that the platforms could incite violence or pose national security risks by hosting certain contracts.
In a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates prediction markets, six senators asked the agency to reiterate that it “will categorically prohibit any contract that resolves upon or closely correlates to an individual’s death.” The lawmakers gave the agency until March 9 to respond.
“We agree contracts involving death have no place on American exchanges,” the Coalition for Prediction Markets, an industry group focused on safe and fair prediction markets, wrote on X in response to a CNBC article about the letter.
The CFTC, which already bans contracts related to terrorism, assassination and war, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Kalshi’s insider trading bans
Another Polymarket wager sparked similar backlash earlier this year after a trader made a bet on the capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro just before President Trump announced his ouster.
At the time, experts said the user, who made $436,000 on the bet, may have had access to classified information regarding the U.S. operation.
Kalshi, meanwhile, last month suspended and fined two users for insider trading, including an employee of the popular YouTuber MrBeast. Bets related to MrBeast’s videos were flagged by Kalshi’s surveillance team for their “near-perfect trading success on markets with low odds,” according to the company’s statement.
Edited by Aimee Picchi
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