更新于 2026年3月2日，美国东部时间下午12:52 / 发布于 2026年3月2日，美国东部时间中午12:00 / CNN政治版
作者：詹妮弗·阿吉埃斯塔（Jennifer Agiesta）、阿里尔·爱德华兹-莱维（Ariel Edwards-Levy）
Majid Asgaripour/Wana News Agency/Reuters
根据SSRS开展的一项新CNN民调，近60%的美国人不赞成美国对伊朗采取军事行动，且多数人认为美伊两国长期军事冲突或将不可避免。
该民调在美以两国发动对伊朗的军事打击后迅速展开，结果显示多数民众对唐纳德·特朗普总统处理局势的方式表示怀疑。多数受访者称，他们不信任特朗普能就美国在伊朗的武力使用做出正确决策：60%的受访者认为特朗普没有清晰的局势应对计划，62%认为他在采取任何进一步军事行动前应获得国会批准。
略超四分之一（27%）的受访者认为，美国在动用武力前已充分进行了对伊朗的外交努力；39%认为美国此前外交努力不足，33%表示不确定。
民调于周六和周日开展，当时有报道称伊朗最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊在袭击中死亡，但主要报道尚未提及四名美军士兵的死亡。
总体而言，59%的美国人不赞成对伊朗的初步打击决定，41%表示支持。强烈反对（31%）的比例约为强烈支持（16%）的两倍。略高比例（44%）的受访者支持美国试图推翻伊朗政府，56%反对这一做法。
然而，仅有12%的受访者支持向伊朗派遣美军地面部队，60%反对，28%不确定。
多数（56%）受访者认为美伊之间至少“有一定可能”爆发长期军事冲突，其中24%认为“非常可能”。周一被问及战争可能持续多久时，特朗普回应称：“我不希望战争持续太久。我原以为会是四周，现在我们稍微提前了一点。”
1月份开展的另一项CNN民调显示，绝大多数美国人视伊朗为“不友好”或“敌国”（89%持此看法）。自2000年以来的民调数据显示，美国民众中始终有超70%将伊朗视为“不友好”或“敌国”。
但新民调显示，很少有人认为此次军事行动会降低美国面临的伊朗威胁。54%的受访者认为伊朗会因此次军事行动而对美国构成更大威胁，仅有28%认为打击会削弱伊朗威胁。即便在总体支持军事行动的人群中，约40%的人也不相信此举能减轻伊朗威胁。
民调结果与去年夏天美国对伊朗发动旨在削弱其核能力的空袭后的民调趋势高度吻合。此后整体民意变化不大，但总体倾向于反对对伊朗采取军事行动。
共和党人支持最新伊朗打击行动，出现“MAGA阵营”与非MAGA阵营分歧
共和党人远比独立派或民主党人更可能支持周末的军事行动（77%共和党人支持，而独立派仅32%、民主党18%），也更可能认为行动能降低美国面临的伊朗威胁（58%共和党人持此观点，独立派21%，民主党9%）。83%的共和党人认为特朗普有清晰的局势应对计划，而独立派（70%）和民主党（88%）则广泛质疑这一点。
在两个问题上，共和党人的立场不太统一：他们对军事行动是否会导致美伊长期冲突的看法近乎平分（44%认为“至少有一定可能”，44%认为“不可能”）；38%反对向伊朗派遣地面部队，35%表示不确定，仅有27%支持。值得注意的是，共和党人支持向伊朗派遣地面部队的比例较去年上升了11个百分点。
共和党内部，自认为属于“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）运动的群体与其他共和党人存在显著分歧：MAGA共和党人对军事行动的强烈支持率比非MAGA共和党人高出30个百分点，认为行动能降低伊朗威胁的比例高出34个百分点，且对特朗普在武力决策上的信任度高出近50个百分点。
特朗普核心支持者对军事行动的初期支持，与更广泛公众的意见形成对比。多数群体（包括男性和女性、白人和少数族裔、各年龄段）均反对此次行动。
CNN于2月28日至3月1日进行的民调通过短信对全国1004名成年人进行了访问，受访者为SSRS短信代表性样本。全样本误差范围为±3.9个百分点。
CNN poll: 59% of Americans disapprove of Iran strikes and most think a long-term conflict is likely
Updated Mar 2, 2026, 12:52 PM ET / Published Mar 2, 2026, 12:00 PM ET / CNN Politics
By Jennifer Agiesta, Ariel Edwards-Levy
Smoke rises following an explosion in Tehran, Iran, on Sunday.
Majid Asgaripour/Wana News Agency/Reuters
Nearly 6 in 10 Americans disapprove of the US decision to take military action in Iran, as most say a long-term military conflict between the two nations is likely, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.
The poll, fielded shortly after US and Israeli attacks launched the war with Iran, finds majorities express doubts about President Donald Trump’s handling of the situation. Most say they lack trust in Trump to make the right decisions about US use of force in Iran, with 60% saying they do not think he has a clear plan for handling the situation and 62% saying he should get congressional approval for any further military action.
Just over a quarter (27%) feel that the US made enough of an effort at diplomacy with Iran before using military force, with 39% saying the US did not try hard enough at diplomacy first and 33% unsure.
The poll was conducted Saturday and Sunday, after news reports that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, had died in the attacks and largely before reports emerged of the deaths of four US troops.
Overall, 59% of Americans disapprove of the initial decision to strike Iran, with 41% approving. Strong disapproval (31%) roughly doubles strong approval (16%). A marginally higher share (44%) say they favor the US trying to overthrow the Iranian government, with 56% opposed to that.
Just 12%, though, would favor sending US ground troops into Iran, while 60% would oppose it and 28% are unsure.
A majority, 56%, say they see long-term military conflict between the US and Iran as at least somewhat likely, including 24% who see that as a very likely outcome. Asked by CNN on Monday how long the war might last, Trump said, “I don’t want to see it go on too long. I always thought it would be four weeks. And we’re a little ahead of schedule.”
A separate CNN poll conducted in January found the vast majority of Americans viewed Iran as unfriendly or an enemy of the US (89% felt that way). In CNN’s polling dating to 2000, Iran has consistently been viewed as unfriendly or an enemy by more than 7 in 10 Americans.
But the new poll suggests few see this military action as likely to reduce the risk the US faces from Iran. Most, 54%, say Iran will become more of a threat to the US as a result of this military action, with just 28% saying the strikes will make Iran less of a threat. Even among those who approve of the military action overall, roughly 40% are unconvinced it will lessen the threat from Iran.
The poll’s findings closely track views last summer in a CNN poll conducted after the US launched airstrikes in Iran aimed at reducing the country’s nuclear capabilities. Shifts in overall opinion since then are small, but generally all tilt away from supporting military action against Iran.
Republicans back latest Iran strikes, with a MAGA vs. non-MAGA split
Republicans are far more likely than independents or Democrats to approve of the weekend’s military action (77% of Republicans approve, compared with 32% of independents and 18% of Democrats) and to see it as likely to reduce the threat the US faces from Iran (58% of Republicans feel that way vs. 21% of independents and 9% of Democrats). An 83% majority of Republicans also say Trump has a clear plan for handling the situation, while broad majorities of independents (70%) and Democrats (88%) doubt he does.
Republicans are less unified on two questions. They are about evenly split over whether this action is likely to lead to a long-term military conflict with Iran (44% say it is at least somewhat likely, 44% that it is not), and are more likely to say they oppose (38%) sending ground troops to Iran or that they’re unsure about the prospect (35%) than they are to say they support such an effort (27%). Still, that marks an 11-point increase in support among Republicans for ground troops in Iran compared with last year.
Within the Republican Party, there is a sharp divide between those who say they consider themselves part of the “Make America Great Again” movement and those who do not, a division that appears largely linked to trust in the president. MAGA Republicans are 30 points more likely than non-MAGA Republicans to say they strongly approve of the decision to take military action, 34 points likelier to say it will reduce the threat Iran poses to the US and nearly 50 points more likely to say they have a great deal of trust in Trump to make the right decisions about US use of force in Iran.
The initial support for military action among Trump’s base stands in contrast to opinions among the larger public. Majorities disapprove across most major demographic subgroups, including both men and women, White, Black and Latino adults, and all age groups.
CNN’s Edward Wu contributed to this report.
The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS on February 28 and March 1. Interviews with 1,004 adults nationwide were conducted by text message. People interviewed for the poll are members of the nationally representative SSRS Text Message Panel. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
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