2026年4月15日 / 美国东部时间下午1:08 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
作者：艾丹·斯特雷奇
基辅电——在彼得·马扎尔于周日具有里程碑意义的选举中击败匈牙利长期领导人维克多·欧尔班的数小时前，马扎尔的支持者涌上布达佩斯街头，高呼“俄罗斯人滚出去！”
这位当选总理的竞选纲领清晰明了：他在竞选演讲中曾将欧尔班称为“克里姆林宫的傀儡”，并长期承诺削弱俄罗斯在匈牙利的影响力。
如今的问题是，马扎尔能否兑现这一承诺。在他试图将匈牙利拉出俄罗斯势力范围的过程中，面临着一个核心障碍：他必须找到办法让本国摆脱俄罗斯的廉价能源产品。而在两国多年密切合作期间，俄罗斯能源一直是匈牙利疲软经济的生命线。
专家表示，俄罗斯能源并非无可替代，但他们警告称，新总理及其选民必须接受经济层面的代价，才能完成这一转型。
![Hungary’s prime minister-elect Peter Magyar delivers a press statement in front of the Presidential Palace in Budapest on April 15, 2026. Janos Kummer / Getty Images]
在执政的16年间，欧尔班加深了匈牙利对俄罗斯石油、天然气和核电的依赖。匈牙利大部分原油通过俄罗斯的德鲁日巴管道进口，大部分天然气则通过与俄罗斯国有天然气巨头俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司签订的合同获得。匈牙利的核电站严重依赖俄罗斯国有能源公司俄罗斯原子能集团，该集团自2014年起就在匈牙利帕克斯核电站建设反应堆。
某种程度的依赖本就难以避免。匈牙利是内陆国家，难以直接进入全球能源市场，管道基础设施是其能源供应的核心。其大部分原油通过德鲁日巴管道运输，国内炼油厂也专门适配俄罗斯原油，因此能源多元化在技术和经济层面都颇具挑战。
但替代方案确实存在。
“从技术上讲，匈牙利可以脱离俄罗斯的石油和天然气，”卡内基俄罗斯欧亚中心高级研究员谢尔盖·瓦库连科在接受哥伦比亚广播公司新闻采访时表示。
瓦库连科称，匈牙利的国内石油消费可以通过亚得里亚管道得到满足，该管道将原油从亚得里亚海运输到克罗地亚、塞尔维亚、匈牙利和斯洛伐克的炼油厂。他还指出，匈牙利也可以更多依赖欧洲大陆的能源电网来满足天然气需求，尽管成本会更高。
在整个竞选期间，马扎尔都表明他会认真考虑转向这些替代能源。预计将担任外交部长的阿妮塔·欧尔班（与维克多·欧尔班无亲属关系）已将减少俄罗斯能源依赖列为新政府的核心优先事项。
“二十年来，她一直致力于降低对俄罗斯能源的依赖，”布达佩斯政策分析研究所创始人巴拉日·瓦拉迪在接受哥伦比亚广播公司新闻采访时表示。
转型将耗资巨大。
瓦库连科指出，通过亚得里亚管道进口的石油的国际市场价格，远高于匈牙利此前为俄罗斯原油支付的折扣价。匈牙利的核电站仍在大量依赖俄罗斯燃料。
摆脱对俄罗斯天然气的依赖对匈牙利来说同样复杂。
作为欧盟成员国，匈牙利曾承诺在2027年前取消俄罗斯天然气进口，但就连马扎尔在竞选期间也承认，该国不太可能在这一截止日期前实现目标。他转而将2035年定为切断进口的目标日期。
“他可能会就截止日期讨价还价，”瓦拉迪说，“马扎尔的政策方向很明确，但他的政府将面临严重的资金短缺，因此我预计他们会就欧盟提供更多结构性资金作为交换条件进行激烈谈判。”
在4月12日选举后的首次新闻发布会上，马扎尔对这些挑战保持清醒认识。
“没有人能改变地理现状。俄罗斯和匈牙利都将继续存在。政府将以最廉价、最安全的方式采购原油和天然气，”他说道。
尽管如此，专家们仍对逐步调整能源结构的前景持谨慎乐观态度。
“这些问题没有一个是致命的，”瓦库连科说，“但这是原则与经济的抉择。”
Hungary’s new leader has vowed to wean his country off Russian energy. It will be a painful transition.
April 15, 2026 / 1:08 PM EDT / CBS News
By Aidan Stretch
Kyiv – In the hours before Peter Magyar defeatedHungary’s longtime leader Viktor Orbán in Sunday’s landmark election, Magyar’s supporters filled the streets of Budapest chanting “Russians out!”
The mandate was clear for the incoming prime minister, who had described Orbán as a “puppet of the Kremlin” in his campaign speeches and long pledged to reduce Russia’s influence in Hungary.
The question now is whether Magyar will make good on that promise. As he attempts to pull Hungary out of Russia’s sphere of influence, he faces a central roadblock: Magyar will have to find ways to wean his country off Russia’s cheap energy products, which have, during many years of close ties, been a lifeline for Hungary’s ailing economy.
Experts say there are alternatives to Russian energy — but they warn that the new prime minister and his constituents will have to accept financial trade-offs to make the transition.
Hungary’s prime minister-elect Peter Magyar delivers a press statement in front of the Presidential Palace in Budapest on April 15, 2026. Janos Kummer / Getty Images
During his 16 years in power, Orbán deepened Hungary’s reliance on Russian oil, gas and nuclear power. Hungary gets the majority of its crude oil via Russia’s Druzhba pipeline, and most of its natural gas through contracts with Russia’s state-owned gas giant Gazprom.
Hungary’s nuclear power plants rely heavily on Russia’s state-owned energy company Rosatom, which has been building reactors at the Hungarian Paks Nuclear Power Plant since 2014.
Some degree of reliance was difficult to avoid. Hungary is a landlocked country with limited direct access to global energy markets, making pipeline infrastructure central to its supplies. Much of its crude oil arrives via the Druzhba pipeline, and its refineries are calibrated specifically for Russian-grade crude, making diversification technically and financially challenging.
But there are alternatives.
“Technically, Hungary could do without Russian oil and gas,” Sergey Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, told CBS News.
Hungary’s domestic oil consumption, Vakulenko said, could be covered by the Adria pipeline, which transports crude from the Adriatic Sea to refineries in Croatia, Serbia, Hungary and Slovakia. Vakulenko noted that Hungary could also rely more on the continental European energy grid to fulfil its gas needs, albeit at higher costs.
Throughout his campaign, Magyar signaled that he is serious about turning to these alternative sources of energy. Anita Orbán, the woman expected to serve as his foreign minister (no relation to Viktor Orbán), has identified reducing consumption of Russian energy as a key priority for the new government.
“Less dependence on Russian energy has been her thing for 20 years,” Balázs Váradi, founder of the Budapest Institute for Policy Analysis, told CBS News.
The transition will be expensive.
Vakulenko noted that oil imported via the Adria pipeline would carry an international market price much higher than the discounted rates Hungary has been paying for Russian crude. Hungary continues to rely heavily on Russian fuel to power its nuclear power plant, too.
Quitting a Russian natural gas habit will also be complicated for Hungary.
The European Union, of which Hungary is a member, has pledged to eliminate Russian natural gas imports by 2027, but even Magyar admitted during his campaign that it would likely be infeasible for his country by that deadline.
He is targeting a 2035 cutoff instead.
“He might bargain about a deadline,” Varadi said. “The thrust of Magyar’s policy will be clear, but he will be quite cash-strapped, so I expect them to bargain hard with the EU for more structural funds as a quid pro quo.”
In his first press conference since the April 12 elections, Magyar was clear-eyed about these challenges.
“No one can change geography. Russia and Hungary are here to stay. The government will procure crude oil and gas in the cheapest and safest way possible,” he said.
Still, experts remain cautiously optimistic that a gradual realignment may soon be underway.
“None of these points is a complete killer,” Vakulenko said. “But this is a decision of principles versus economics.”
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