2026年4月2日 美国东部时间下午12:41 / 路透社
作者：普尔维·阿加瓦尔、拉希卡·辛格和约瀚·M·切里安
2026年4月2日 美国东部时间下午12:41 UTC 更新于3小时前
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2025年3月11日，一名男子走进美国纽约的纽约证券交易所（NYSE）大楼。路透社/香农·斯台普顿 购买授权，将在新标签页打开
- 3月国防股表现逊于大盘
- 投资者提及前期大量仓位布局、估值高企
- 产出周期长叠加预算担忧，盈利前景疲软
（路透社4月1日电）尽管伊朗战争持续胶着，美国国防股却出现下跌，这表明典型的“逢冲突买入”交易在数周前就已基本见顶，当时市场预期唐纳德·特朗普总统将采取更强硬行动。
追踪34家美国大型和小型国防企业的纽约证券交易所Arca国防指数（.DFII）3月下跌近8%，而同期标普500指数（.SPX）下跌5%。相比之下，2022年2月俄罗斯入侵乌克兰时，该指数曾上涨约12%。
路透社伊朗简报通讯将为您提供伊朗战争的最新动态和分析。点击此处订阅。
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策略师表示，这种疲软表现表明投资者在今年的强劲涨势后正在平仓，这并不反映需求减弱或对长期国防开支的疑虑。
“许多冲突溢价已经体现在它们的估值中，”德国资产管理公司德银（DWS）美洲区首席投资官大卫·比安科说道。
“我们看到黄金、石油和国防板块上涨，部分原因是政府传递的信号，当时特朗普派遣舰队前往中东。没人确切知道会发生什么，但他们看到了爆发冲突的可能性。”
比安科表示，他在中东冲突爆发前就开始减持国防股的“超配”仓位。
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早在2月下旬美以空袭开始之前，就有迹象表明华盛顿正准备与德黑兰对抗。
路透社在战争爆发前数周报道称，美国正在中东集结兵力，并准备在外交努力失败后展开为期数周的军事行动。
同样，欧洲国防板块（.SXPARO）3月下跌11%，创下疫情以来最大月度跌幅，原因是市场普遍担忧这场战争可能引发能源冲击并大举抛售。
此前数周，由于俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后欧洲各国政府宣布全面扩军计划，国防股曾出现上涨。
一张展示2022年以来冲突时期纽约证券交易所Arca国防指数表现的折线图
今年早些时候，特朗普提议2027年美国国防预算达到1.5万亿美元，远高于2026年获批的9010亿美元，但国会是否会通过这一增支计划仍存在不确定性。
伯恩斯坦分析师道格拉斯·哈纳德在近期一份报告中表示：“迄今为止发生的一切都表明，2027年1.5万亿美元的国防预算不太可能获批。基于这些原因，不应指望当前的冲突能带来股价上涨。”
2020年至2025年间，国防指数涨幅已超过150%，该板块估值处于历史高位。
根据路孚特（LSEG）数据，标普500航空航天与国防细分指数（.SPLRCAERO）的未来12个月市盈率约为32倍，远高于标普500指数约20倍的整体市盈率。
盈利预期受新订单、预算增长支撑仍强劲
尽管战争爆发，盈利预期依旧疲软
市场对五角大楼为补充耗尽的导弹和弹药库存而提高产量的举措反应也较为平淡。
分析师表示，由于生产周期长和产能限制，产量无法快速提升，任何收入增长都需要时间才能兑现。
路孚特数据与分析部门盈利与股票研究主管塔金德·迪隆表示，截至3月底，通用动力（GD.N）、洛克希德·马丁（LMT.N）、诺斯罗普·格鲁曼（NOC.N）、L3Harris（LHX.N）和RTX（RTX.N）这五家公司的2026年盈利增长预期约为12%，而2026年初这一数字约为15%。
“这场冲突需要持续更久，或是出现实质性扩大，（盈利）预估才会上调，”富国银行投资研究所全球股票主管萨米尔·萨马纳说道。
供应限制与政策压力
除估值因素外，投资者还提及生产灵活性有限。
海蓬子研究合伙人公司航空航天与国防高级分析师、董事总经理理查德·萨夫兰表示，冲突期间国防企业的资金会被转移到直接作战需求上，而非现代化或研发项目。
特朗普政府还向国防企业施压，要求其优先保障生产而非向股东派息，这加剧了资本回报方面的不确定性。
该板块的中期前景在很大程度上取决于美国的预算决策，彭博新闻报道称，关键支出细节预计将于4月21日公布。
数据反映实际支出情况
本报由普尔维·阿加瓦尔、拉希卡·辛格、阿维纳什·P和约瀚·切里安在班加罗尔报道；梅达·辛格撰稿；斯里拉吉·卡卢维拉编辑
我们的准则：路透社汤姆森路透信托原则。
US defense stocks see no Iran war lift after early surge
2026-04-02 12:41 PM UTC / Reuters
By Purvi Agarwal, Rashika Singh and Johann M Cherian
April 2, 2026 12:41 PM UTC Updated 3 hours ago
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A man walks into the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) building in New York City, U.S., March 11, 2025. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
- Defense stocks underperform broader market in March
- Investors cite heavy early positioning, high valuations
- Earnings outlook muted amid long output cycles, budget concerns
April 1 (Reuters) – U.S. defense stocks have declined even as the Iran war drags on, indicating that the typical “buy-on-conflict” trade had largely peaked in the weeks before in anticipation of tougher action by President Donald Trump.
The NYSE Arca Defense index (.DFII), which includes 34 small and large-cap U.S. companies, fell nearly 8% in March, compared with the broader S&P 500’s (.SPX) 5% drop. In contrast, it had gained about 12% in February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine.
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The sluggish performance, strategists said, signaled investors were unwinding positions after a strong run this year and does not reflect fading demand or doubts about longer-term defense spending.
“A lot of conflict premium was in their valuations,” said David Bianco, Americas chief investment officer at German asset manager DWS.
“We saw gold and oil and defense rally, part of the reason was messages from the administration, when Trump was sending the armada to the Middle East. Nobody knew anything, but they saw chances of a conflict.”
Bianco said he began reducing his “overweight” position on defense stocks before the Middle East conflict began.
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There were signs well before the U.S.-Israeli bombing began in late February that Washington was preparing for a confrontation with Tehran.
Reuters reported in the weeks leading up to the war that the U.S. was building up forces in the Middle East and preparing for a weeks-long operation if diplomacy failed.
Similarly, the European defense sector (.SXPARO) fell 11% in March, marking its biggest monthly loss since the pandemic amid a broad selloff on worries of a potential energy shock due to the war.
Defense shares had rallied for weeks as European governments announced sweeping rearmament plans following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
A line chart showing the performance of the NYSE Arca Defence Index since 2022 in times of conflict
Earlier this year, Trump proposed a $1.5 trillion U.S. military budget for 2027, well above the $901 billion approved for 2026, but uncertainty remains over whether Congress will pass such an increase.
“Nothing that has happened so far suggests that a $1.5 trillion 2027 defense budget could be exceeded. For these reasons, one should not expect upside to come from the current conflict,” Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned said in a recent note.
The defense index has surged more than 150% between 2020 and 2025, leaving the sector at historically elevated valuations.
The S&P 500 Aerospace & Defense sub-index (.SPLRCAERO) trades at about 32 times 12-month forward earnings, well above the broader S&P 500’s multiple of roughly 20 times, according to LSEG data.
Strong earnings expectations on new orders, budget growth propel shares
EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS MUTED DESPITE WAR
Market reaction has also been subdued to the Pentagon’s attempts to boost production to replenish depleted missile and ammunition stockpiles.
Any revenue gains will take time to materialize as long production cycles and capacity constraints limit how quickly output can ramp up, analysts say.
Expectations for 2026 earnings growth hovered around 12% at the end of March versus about 15% at the start of 2026 for General Dynamics (GD.N), Lockheed Martin (LMT.N), Northrop Grumman (NOC.N), L3Harris (LHX.N) and RTX (RTX.N), according to Tajinder Dhillon, head of earnings and equity research at LSEG Data & Analytics.
“The conflict would need to last longer, or expand materially, for (earnings) estimates to move higher,” said Sameer Samana, head of global equities at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS, POLICY PRESSURE
Beyond valuations, investors pointed to limited production flexibility.
Richard Safran, senior analyst and managing director of aerospace and defense at Seaport Research Partners, said funding of defense firms gets diverted to immediate operational needs rather than modernization or development needs during conflicts.
The Trump administration is also pressuring defense firms to prioritize production over shareholder payouts, exacerbating uncertainty around capital returns.
The sector’s medium-term outlook depends heavily on U.S. budget decisions, with key spending details expected on April 21, Bloomberg News reported.
Figures reflect actual spending
Reporting by Purvi Agarwal, Rashika Singh, Avinash P and Johann Cherian in Bengaluru; writing by Medha Singh; Editing by Sriraj Kalluvila
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.