2026-06-01T18:54:42.837Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
- 共和党此前曾因提名存在个人丑闻或发表争议言论的候选人，而输掉原本稳拿的参议院席位，但民主党在2026年也可能面临这一问题。
- 多场竞争最激烈的参议院选举都涉及存在各类负面包袱的候选人，最近的案例是缅因州的格雷厄姆·普拉特纳和得克萨斯州的肯·帕克斯顿。
- 但越来越多证据表明，个人负面包袱和政治争议言论已不再像过去那样，是美国政坛的“致命败笔”。
本文由AI生成摘要，经CNN编辑审核。
有问题的候选人近年来大多是参议院共和党人的障碍。但到2026年，他们可能会成为两党共同的棘手问题，甚至可能决定参议院的控制权归属。
近期出现了两起最值得关注的相关事件。本周末，缅因州民主党参议院候选人格雷厄姆·普拉特纳的混乱过往被更多曝光——具体而言，他的妻子去年曾向其竞选团队举报，丈夫曾向其他女性发送露骨短信。
而在党派另一端，背负争议的得克萨斯州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿上周在该州共和党初选 runoff 中击败参议员约翰·科宁获胜。
但这并非仅有的几起提名（或潜在提名）候选人可能在关键选举中拖累本党的情况，尽管每位候选人面临的争议性质、严重程度以及争议的社会反响在不同竞选活动中各不相同。
在佐治亚州，共和党人面临众议员迈克·柯林斯带来的潜在风险，他是本月晚些时候初选 runoff 的热门人选。他将带着一些可能造成损害的过往言论和近期竞选失误，与民主党参议员乔恩·奥索夫展开大选对决。
在密歇根州，民主党提名阿卜杜勒·埃尔赛义德的可能性似乎越来越大，这位桑德斯式的候选人被党内一些建制派人士认为因其政策观点和人脉关系而无法胜选。他曾称以色列与哈马斯一样邪恶，近期还与左翼网红哈桑·皮克勒一同参加竞选活动，而皮克勒此前曾多次发表煽动性言论。
这四场选举占据了《库克政治报告》评级为最具竞争力的8场参议院选举的一半。
这些候选人最终是否会比本党其他候选人表现更差，还有待观察。越来越多证据表明，个人负面包袱和政治争议言论已不再像过去那样，是美国政坛的“致命败笔”。
但近年来，一些候选人——尤其是与特朗普结盟的共和党人——确实因个人丑闻或极端言论，让本党错失了原本稳拿的席位。
而如今，这一因素在参议院席位争夺战中的重要性与日俱增。
缅因州与得克萨斯州
或许没有哪个地方比缅因州和得克萨斯州更能体现这些潜在问题的影响力。
民主党人要想拿下参议院多数席位，大概率需要普拉特纳击败缅因州共和党现任参议员苏珊·柯林斯。这位连任五届的参议员是唯一一位在2024年卡玛拉·哈里斯拿下的州内寻求连任的共和党人。（民主党需要净增四个席位才能翻转参议院控制权，拿下缅因州后，他们的目标将转向更偏向共和党的州。）
普拉特纳此前曾因一个被认为是纳粹标志的纹身（现已遮盖）以及诋毁警察和白人等群体的网络言论陷入争议，但当时似乎已翻篇。他最近在民主党初选中击败了州长珍妮特·米尔斯的支持者，并在有限的大选民调中保持对柯林斯的领先。
但随后《华尔街日报》和《纽约时报》曝出，普拉特纳2023年迎娶的妻子曾向竞选团队举报，丈夫曾向其他女性发送露骨短信。
尽管普拉特纳对民主党赢得多数席位至关重要，但国会民主党人对他的支持似乎越来越不积极。
得克萨斯州的情况略有不同，但重要性可能不相上下。民主党人要想赢得参议院多数席位，可能需要至少在2024年特朗普以两位数优势拿下的两个州翻转参议院席位。帕克斯顿在初选中击败科宁，似乎让得克萨斯州成为这两个州之一，其他候选州还包括阿拉斯加、艾奥瓦和俄亥俄州。
帕克斯顿的负面包袱包括一系列刑事和民事法律问题、2023年被本党弹劾，以及近期前妻对其不忠的指控——这些问题曾让全国共和党人极为头疼，他们为支持科宁投入大量精力和资金，以保住这一席位的红色属性。
如今，民主党人希望州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科能借此机会，让该州三十年来首次变蓝，而且有理由相信他有可能做到。
佐治亚州与密歇根州
鉴于奥索夫长期以来一直是热门人选，佐治亚州的参议院选举对参议院多数席位的影响可能没那么关键。但如果共和党在6月16日的初选中提名柯林斯而非前田纳西大学橄榄球教练德里克·杜利，可能会进一步巩固奥索夫在本党必须守住的席位上的优势。
柯林斯近年来在社交媒体上的表现活跃且有时颇具争议，其中包括对一个暗示某记者是犹太人的种族主义账号作出肯定回应。（柯林斯辩称自己的本意并非如此，但尽管账号所有者澄清原帖是在说该记者是犹太人，他仍未删除该帖子。）
柯林斯的竞选团队近期还与一名长期助手断绝了关系，这名助手曾使用竞选账号嘲笑一位支持杜利的战略家的妻子，该妻子声称自己曾被名誉扫地的记者马特·劳尔强奸。《石板》杂志上周还报道称，柯林斯的另一名高级助手曾加入一个与知名白人至上主义者同在的群聊。
（这名助手告诉《石板》杂志，他“完全以个人身份”帮助一名“在拘留期间遭受虐待、被剥夺基本医疗服务”的熟人，并称自己“没有使用官方资源，也没有与群聊中的其他人协调”。）
柯林斯在上月的初选中以10个百分点的优势领先杜利，近期还聘请了一些关键的特朗普顾问，而杜利则得到佐治亚州州长布莱恩·坎普的支持。
在密歇根州，局势更加不明朗，埃尔赛义德仍在8月4日的民主党初选中与众议员黑利·史蒂文斯和州参议员马洛里·麦克莫罗展开激烈竞争。但民主党内部有人担忧，如果埃尔赛义德获得提名，可能会危及本党必须守住的另一个关键州的席位。
埃尔赛义德曾呼吁废除移民海关执法局，称以色列总理内塔尼亚胡是“战争罪犯”，并指责以色列对巴勒斯坦人实施“种族灭绝”。史蒂文斯批评他与皮克勒一同参加竞选，皮克勒曾发表过诸如“哈马斯比以色列好一千倍”和“美国活该遭遇9·11”等煽动性言论。皮克勒后来收回了后一句话。
“我认为有一种观点认为，选举吸引力在于最不招人反感，”埃尔赛义德今年4月告诉CNN，“如果真是这样，唐纳德·特朗普怎么能两次当选总统？”
每位候选人的潜在问题各不相同，但密歇根州的民主党初选很好地说明了，他们的问题在11月的大选中会产生何种影响尚不可知。
当地有限的大选民调并不一定表明埃尔赛义德会成为本党的重大拖累——至少在目前这个早期阶段是这样。而支持他的佛蒙特州独立参议员桑德斯尽管是民主社会主义者，但在全国范围内仍是颇具人气的人物。
同样，在得克萨斯州，帕克斯顿在与塔拉里科的对决中民调表现与 supposedly 更具 electability 的科宁不相上下。在缅因州，目前几乎没有证据表明普拉特纳的个人问题损害了他的竞选——实际上几乎没有任何影响（尽管最近的爆料曝光后还没有新的民调）。
有可能在这个政治时代，这些因素的影响越来越小——而党派归属的重要性则大大提升。
但近年来，不乏有问题的候选人表现不佳，尤其是在共和党方面。一些令人难堪的个人爆料加上不稳定的竞选表现，导致赫歇尔·沃克在2022年佐治亚州参议院选举中输掉了原本稳拿的席位。2024年北卡罗来纳州州长选举中的马克·罗宾逊也是如此。
事实上，共和党曾多次提名非常规的参议院和州长候选人，这些候选人并不受选民欢迎，比如亚利桑那州的布莱克·马斯特斯和卡里·莱克、新罕布什尔州的唐·博尔达克、宾夕法尼亚州的道格·马斯特里亚诺，甚至包括2022年首次参选俄亥俄州参议员的副总统JD·万斯。（尽管万斯的得票率远低于俄亥俄州其他共和党全州候选人，但他还是获胜了。）其中一些人的得票率比特朗普低了两位数。
在此之前，内华达州的莎伦·安格尔、密苏里州的托德·阿金、印第安纳州的理查德·莫尔杜克和特拉华州的克里斯汀·奥唐奈（记得“我不是女巫”）都在2010年代的共和党选举中失利。
2026年的不同之处在于，民主党在近年来招募候选人表现相对不错且避免了重大失误后，有理由担忧本党的一些候选人在关键选举中的表现。
尽管共和党此次也面临同样的问题，但民主党如果想在11月拿下参议院席位，犯错的空间更小。
The battle for the Senate could come down to candidate baggage
2026-06-01T18:54:42.837Z / CNN
- Republicans have previously lost otherwise winnable Senate seats because of nominees with personal scandals or controversial statements, but Democrats could be confronting this possibility in 2026 too.
- A handful of the most competitive Senate races involve candidates with various kinds of baggage, the most recent being Graham Platner in Maine and Ken Paxton in Texas.
- But there is increasing evidence that personal baggage and politically controversial statements aren’t the deal-breakers they once were in American politics.
AI-generated summary was reviewed by a CNN editor.
Problematic candidates have mostly been a hurdle for Senate Republicans in recent years. But in 2026, they could be a real problem for both parties — and could potentially decide Senate control.
The two most significant developments on this front came in recent days. More revelations about Maine Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner’s messy past emerged this weekend — specifically, that his wife had flagged to his campaign last year that her husband had sent sexual text messages to other women.
On the other side of the aisle, baggage-laden Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton won his state’s GOP primary runoff over Sen. John Cornyn last week.
But these aren’t the only races where a nominee (or potential nominee) risks underperforming for his party in an important race, although the nature and extent of the controversy each is facing — and how it’s resonating — differs across campaigns.
In Georgia, Republicans face some potential liability with Rep. Mike Collins, who’s the favorite to win a primary runoff later this month. He would bring some potentially harmful past statements and recent campaign missteps into a general election matchup against Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff.
And in Michigan, it appears increasingly possible Democrats could nominate Abdul El-Sayed, a Bernie Sanders-type candidate who some in the party establishment fear is unelectable because of his policy views and associations. He’s said Israel is as evil as Hamas and recently campaigned with left-wing streamer Hasan Piker, who has a history of inflammatory comments.
These four races account for half of the eight Senate races that the Cook Political Report rates as the most competitive.
Whether any of these candidates ultimately underperforms how another candidate from their party would do is to be determined. There is increasing evidence that personal baggage and politically controversial statements aren’t the deal-breakers they once were in American politics.
But some candidates — especially Trump-aligned Republicans — have potentially cost their party winnable races in recent years, thanks to either personal scandal or extreme comments.
And right now, it’s an increasingly significant variable in the battle for the Senate.
Maine and Texas
Perhaps nowhere do these potential issues matter like they do in Maine and Texas.
Democrats likely need Platner to defeat Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins to have any shot at the Senate majority. The five-term senator is the only Republican facing reelection in a state that Kamala Harris carried in 2024. (Democrats need a net gain of four seats to flip the chamber, and after Maine, their targets are in redder territory.)
Platner seemed to have moved past controversies about a tattoo recognized as a Nazi symbol, which he has now covered up, as well as online comments denigrating police and White people, among others. He recently nudged Gov. Janet Mills out of the Democratic primary and has maintained a lead over Collins in the limited general election polling.
But then came reporting from The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times that Platner’s wife, whom he married in 2023, flagged to the campaign the explicit text messages sent to other women.
Congressional Democrats’ vouching for Platner appears increasingly tepid, despite his importance to their majority math.
The situation is somewhat different in Texas — but could be nearly as important. Democrats likely need to flip Senate seats in at least two states that President Donald Trump carried by double digits in 2024 to win a majority. And Paxton’s runoff victory over Cornyn would seem to put Texas in play to be one of those two, alongside states like Alaska, Iowa and Ohio.
Paxton’s baggage — which includes a series of criminal and civil legal problems, a 2023 impeachment led by his own party, and recent allegations of infidelity from his ex-wife — gave national Republicans such heartburn that they campaigned hard and spent extensively for Cornyn in the name of keeping the set red.
Now, Democrats hope state Rep. James Talarico can take advantage and turn the state blue for the first time in three decades, and there’s some reason to believe he could.
Georgia and Michigan
The Georgia Senate race likely isn’t as instrumental for the majority math, given Ossoff has looked like a favorite for a while. But Republicans nominating Collins over former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley in the June 16 runoff could solidify Ossoff’s advantage in a must-hold seat for his party.
Collins’ active and at-times-dicey social media presence in recent years has included responding affirmatively to a racist account suggestively gesturing at how a reporter was Jewish. (Collins argued his meaning was different, but he has left his post up despite the account owner clarifying the original post was about the reporter being Jewish.)
The Collins campaign also recently cut ties with a longtime aide who used a campaign X account to mock the wife of a pro-Dooley strategist for claiming she had been raped by disgraced journalist Matt Lauer. And Slate reported last week about another top Collins aide being on a group chat with prominent White nationalists.
(The aide told Slate that he was acting “solely in my personal capacity” to help an acquaintance who “was being mistreated in custody and denied basic medical care.” He added that he did not “use official resources or coordinate with anyone else in the group chat.”)
Collins led Dooley by 10 points in the primary last month and has hired some key Trump advisers of late, while Dooley has the backing of Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp.
In Michigan, the situation is more up in the air, with El-Sayed still locked in a competitive August 4 Democratic primary with Rep. Haley Stevens and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow. But there is some concern in Democratic circles that an El-Sayed nomination could jeopardize another must-hold state for Democrats.
El-Sayed has advocated for the abolition of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a “war criminal” and accused Israel of a “genocide” against Palestinians. Stevens has criticized him for campaigning with Piker, who once said inflammatory things like Hamas is “a thousand times better” than Israel and that “America deserved 9/11.” Piker walked back the latter statement.
“I think there is this notion that electability is about being the least offensive,” El-Sayed told CNN in April. “If that were true, why would Donald Trump have won the presidency twice?”
Each of these candidates’ potential issues are different, but Michigan’s Democratic primary is a great example of how their impact in November is unknown.
The limited general-election polling there doesn’t necessarily indicate that El-Sayed would be a significant liability for his party — at least at this early juncture. And Sanders, the Vermont independent senator who’s backed him, has proven a pretty popular national figure, even with his democratic socialist views.
Similarly, in Texas, Paxton has polled about as well as the supposedly more-electable Cornyn in matchups with Talarico. And in Maine, there’s still very little evidence that Platner’s personal problems have hurt his campaign — at all, really (though there haven’t been any polls since the most recent revelations).
It’s possible these things simply matter less and less in this political age — and party affiliation matters much more.
But plenty of problematic candidates have underperformed in recent years, especially on the GOP side. Some ugly personal revelations, combined with an unsteady candidacy, contributed to Herschel Walker losing a winnable Georgia Senate race in 2022. Then there was Mark Robinson in the North Carolina governor’s race in 2024.
Indeed, Republicans have on several occasions nominated unorthodox candidates for Senate and governor who didn’t play well with voters, like Blake Masters and Kari Lake in Arizona, Don Bolduc in New Hampshire, Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania and even Vice President JD Vance in his first Senate campaign in Ohio in 2022. (Vance won despite far underperforming other statewide Ohio Republicans.) Some of their margins underperformed Trump by double digits.
Before them, Nevada’s Sharron Angle, Missouri’s Todd Akin, Indiana’s Richard Mourdock and Delaware’s Christine O’Donnell (think: “I’m not a witch”) lost races for the GOP last decade.
The difference in 2026 is that Democrats — after recruiting relatively well in recent years and avoiding major underperformances — have reason to worry about how some of their candidates might play in important races.
And while that issue also lingers for Republicans this time around, Democrats have less room for mistakes if they want to take the Senate come November.
