2026-03-19T16:05:00-0400 / CBS新闻
专家表示，中东局势持续升级可能导致油价猛涨至历史最高水平以上，加剧通胀风险并抑制经济增长。
“最大的受害者将是消费者，”牛津经济研究院首席全球经济学家瑞安·斯威特(Ryan Sweet)表示。“从实际情况来看，汽油价格每上涨一美分，一年内消费者支出就会减少15亿美元。”
在能源基础设施遭到新袭击后，布伦特原油周四一度突破每桶119美元，分析师称，如果供应中断加剧，油价可能会大幅攀升——这一变化将推高汽油价格，压缩家庭预算，并对整体经济产生连锁反应。
消费者已经在加油站感受到了影响：普通汽油价格现在比战争爆发前高出近1美元。美国汽车协会(AAA)的数据显示，周四价格达到每加仑3.88美元。与此同时，航空燃油成本上升，导致一些航空公司提高机票价格。
根据FactSet的数据，2008年7月油价达到历史高点，当时布伦特原油和美国基准西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)均达到约每桶145美元，经通胀调整后约为每桶215美元。
诚然，经通胀调整后的这一数字仍远高于当前水平。然而，道明证券上周在研究报告中表示，如果冲突持续，油价最终可能突破每桶200美元。
美国虽有缓冲但非免疫
专家称，如果油价接近2008年水平，欧洲和亚洲可能出现轻度经济收缩，但美国可能不会陷入衰退。他们解释说，美国作为全球主要石油生产国，且消费者支出中用于能源的比例较低，因此受全球能源价格飙升的影响较小。
“我认为美国的处境比大多数国家要好，”潘兴宏观经济研究公司(Pantheon Macroeconomics)美国首席经济学家塞缪尔·汤姆斯(Samuel Tombs)告诉CBS新闻。
尽管如此，即便美国避免衰退，经济仍无法完全免疫。根据3月11日牛津经济研究院的研究报告，如果布伦特原油价格升至每桶140美元并维持两个月，美国企业将因成本上升而裁员，失业率可能上升。
“这时你就会开始担心恶性循环，”他说。“企业开始裁员，而这又会影响消费。”
斯威特表示，股市可能下跌，导致高收入家庭减少支出。低收入家庭将首当其冲承受汽油价格上涨的压力，迫使一些家庭削减非必要开支。
“令人担忧的是连锁反应，包括对美国股市的影响，因为消费支出主要集中在高收入家庭，”他说。
通胀风险加剧
经济学家称，油价上涨还可能通过航运成本上升向美国经济注入通胀压力。
“尽管美国通过霍尔木兹海峡进口的石油不多，但这仍会在全球供应链中造成瓶颈，可能引发通胀，”斯威特表示。
潘兴宏观经济研究公司最近的分析发现，如果油价上涨至每桶150美元并维持三个月，消费者价格指数(CPI)年增长率可能从2月份的2.4%跃升至6%。
专家警告称，冲突导致柴油价格上涨（柴油是运输美国货物的卡车和驳船使用的燃料），消费者可能会看到食品价格上涨。本周早些时候，柴油价格自2022年以来首次超过每加仑5美元。
“即使油价稳定，较高的运费、更长的运输路线和保险成本也会使燃料和中间产品的交付价格居高不下，”GlobalData经济研究与企业部主任拉尼瓦·蒙达达(Ramnivas Mundada)周四在研究报告中表示。“这种组合增加了通胀比预期更顽固的可能性。”
消费者能否抵御冲击？
专家表示，今年由于“大而美法案”(Big, Beautiful Bill)，更大规模的退税将帮助消费者应对伊朗战争相关的部分成本增加。
无党派税收基金会估计，平均退税金额为748美元，大致相当于美国家庭今年因汽油价格上涨面临的额外燃料成本。
“家庭仍有相当数量的储蓄来度过能源价格暂时上涨的时期，”汤姆斯说。
冲突持续时间越长，对美国消费者的财务风险就越大。
“美国消费者可以承受几周的高能源价格，但随着时间的推移，经济成本确实会累积，”斯威特表示。
Oil prices could reach record highs, analysts warn. Here’s what it could mean for the U.S. economy.
2026-03-19T16:05:00-0400 / CBS News
Intensifying violence in the Middle East could send oil prices careening above their all-time high, raising the risk of higher inflation and slower economic growth, experts said.
“The biggest hit will be the consumer,” said Ryan Sweet, a chief global economist at Oxford Economics. “To kind of put it into context, every penny increase in gasoline prices reduces consumer spending by one and a half billion dollars over the course of a year.”
Brent crude briefly topped $119 a barrel on Thursday after fresh attacks on energy infrastructure, and analysts say prices could climb much higher if supply disruptions worsen — a shift that would push up gas prices, squeeze household budgets and ripple across the broader economy.
Consumers are already feeling the impact at the pump, where average gasoline prices are now almost $1 higher than they were before the war started. On Thursday, prices reached $3.88 per gallon, according to data from AAA. At the same time, the cost of jet fuel is rising, leading some carriers to hike their ticket prices.
Oil prices hit record highs in July 2008, when both Brent and West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, reached around $145 per barrel, or about $215 a barrel on an inflation-adjusted basis, according to data from FactSet.
To be sure, that inflation-adjusted figure remains well above current levels. Yet oil could eventually top $200 a barrel if the conflict drags on, TD Securities said in a research note last week.
U.S. insulated, but not immune
If oil prices approach 2008 levels, experts say Europe and Asia could experience a mild economic contraction, but the U.S. likely won’t dip into a recession. The U.S., they explain, is more insulated from global energy spikes, given that the country is a top oil producer and because less consumer spending goes toward energy production.
“I think the U.S. stands better than most,” Samuel Tombs, a chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, told CBS News.
Still, even if the U.S. dodges a recession, the economy is not immune to disruption.If Brent oil prices rise to $140 per barrel and remain there for two months, U.S. layoffs could rise as companies cope with higher costs, pushing up the jobless rate, according to a March 11 Oxford Economics research note.
“This is when you start getting concerned about that vicious cycle,” he said. “Businesses start to lay off workers, and then that also hits consumption.”
Sweet said the stock market could fall, leading higher-income households to pull back on spending. Lower-income households would bear the brunt of rising gas prices, forcing some to cut back on discretionary spending, he added.
“The concern is the knock-on effects, including what it means for the U.S. stock market, because consumer spending is concentrated [among] higher-income households,” he said.
Inflationary risks
Economists say rising oil prices could also inject inflationary pressure into the U.S. economy as shipping costs rise.
“Even though the U.S. imports very little through the Strait of Hormuz, it’s still causing some bottlenecks in the global supply chains that could also be inflationary,” Sweet said.
A recent analysis from Pantheon Macroeconomics found that if oil prices increase to $150 per barrel and stay at that level for three months, the Consumer Price Index could jump to an annual pace of 6%, up from 2.4% recorded in February.
Experts have warned consumers could start to see higher food prices, as the conflict drives up the price of diesel, the fuel used by trucks and barges that transport U.S. goods. Earlier this week, diesel surpassed $5 a gallon for the first time since 2022.
“Even if oil prices stabilize, the persistence of higher freight costs, longer shipping routes, and insurance costs can keep delivered prices elevated for fuel and intermediate goods,” Ramnivas Mundada, director of Economic Research and Companies at GlobalData, said in a research note on Thursday. “That combination increases the likelihood that inflation proves stickier than expected.”
Can consumers weather the shock?
Experts said larger tax refunds, which are up this year due to the “big, beautiful bill” act, will help consumers weather some of the cost increases related to the Iran war.
The nonpartisan Tax Foundation estimates the average tax refund will be $748 — roughly equal to the additional fuel costs the typical U.S. household will face this year due to higher gas prices.
“Households do still have a reasonable amount of savings to get through a temporary period of higher energy prices,” Tombs said.
The longer the conflict drags on, the more financial risk it poses to U.S. consumers.
“The U.S. consumer can weather a couple of weeks of high energy prices, but with each passing month the economic costs really begin to mount,” Sweet said.