2026年5月5日美国东部时间05:00:18 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
美国国债自二战以来首次超过该国国内生产总值，标志着政府财政负担大幅加重。
根据负责任联邦预算委员会最近的一份分析报告，截至4月底，公众持有的国债规模达到31.27万亿美元，略高于2025年4月至2026年3月期间美国31.22万亿美元的GDP总量。
这家专注于财政问题、支持削减赤字的无党派智库表示：“除了新冠疫情早期GDP短暂暴跌的短暂时期外，国债超过GDP的情况仅在二战结束后的两年出现过。”
彼得·G·彼得森基金会的数据显示，二战期间联邦支出大幅飙升。相比之下，此次国债激增是由减税、政府利息支出增加以及人口老龄化带来的挑战共同推动的，这使得医疗保险和社会保障等项目的成本更高。
利息支出超过医疗保险支出
不断膨胀的国债正转化为更高的联邦利息支出，美国现在为偿还债务支付的费用超过了国防或医疗保险的拨款。
无党派组织美国立法交流委员会（ALEC）的主席兼首席经济学家乔纳森·威廉姆斯在接受哥伦比亚广播公司新闻采访时表示：“除此之外，按照当前的债务水平，超支和国债威胁着我们未来的国防和军事战备能力。举个例子，目前国债的净利息支出每年超过1万亿美元。”
公众持有的国债指的是联邦政府欠外部主体的债务，包括企业、个人、州或地方政府以及外国政府。根据美国财政部的数据，包括联邦政府欠自身债务在内的总国债规模已接近39万亿美元。
现在的问题是，这种迅速增长的债务是预示着潜在的金融灾难，还是对于一个经济持续增长且仍具活力的国家来说是可控的。尽管未来数年形势可能仍不明朗，但像负责任联邦预算委员会这样的财政鹰派人士已经敲响了警钟。
美国国债激增的原因是什么？
自2008-2009年全球金融危机以来，美国国债规模从当时的约5万亿美元持续膨胀。彼得森基金会表示，问题的核心在于收入与支出之间的失衡。
换句话说，美国的支出持续超过通过税收和其他渠道获得的收入，迫使政府发行更多债务来为联邦项目融资。
国债增长速度有多快？
国会预算办公室预测，未来十年联邦债务将持续攀升，预计到2036年，公众持有的国债将达到53万亿美元。该机构在2月份的一份报告中表示，国债占美国GDP的比例预计将从今年的约101%升至2036年的120%，超过1946年106%的历史峰值。
诚然，这一预测基于一系列政策选择，而非一成不变的经济力量。一些专家表示，美国可以通过实施财政纪律来稳住局面。例如，负责任联邦预算委员会周一提议将赤字——即联邦支出与税收收入之间的差额——降至GDP的3%，约为当前水平的一半。
该组织表示，这将“使债务与GDP之比走上下行轨道，并留有一定的调整空间”。“将赤字控制在GDP的3%这一目标，提供了一条可信且可实现的路径，有助于稳定债务、促进经济增长、保留财政灵活性，并增强市场对国家财政状况的信心。”
存在哪些风险？
彼得森基金会指出，不断上升的国债可能引发一系列经济问题。经济学家表示，这些问题包括利息成本上升，这可能挤占联邦项目支出，以及金融危机风险加剧。投资者也可能对美国的财政稳定性失去信心，导致美国信用评级被下调。
耶鲁大学预算实验室的数据显示，增加债务还会推高物价，意味着美国家庭的日常开支会增加。
美国立法交流委员会的威廉姆斯告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻：“无论提高债务上限多少次，当前的联邦债务显然都是不可持续的。如果国会不开始以无党派的方式实施负责任的财政政策，美国人将为此付出代价，包括更高的税收、缓慢的经济增长以及严重的通货膨胀。”
市场传递了什么信号？
一些专家指出，美国拥有充满活力且持续增长的经济，信用评级强劲，这意味着尽管国债上升是一个担忧因素，但至少目前美国有能力应对。
摩根大通美国投资策略主管雅各布·马努基安在2025年的一份报告中写道，在过去五年中的四年里，美国经济增速都高于债务的平均利息成本，这一“正向差距应该能抑制债务与GDP之比的增长”。
他补充道，几乎没有证据表明利息支出会变得过高，以至于“压倒货币政策并加剧通货膨胀”。
与此同时，美国国债仍保持高需求，这表明投资者并未认为美国的财政状况存在直接风险。
马努基安表示：“家庭（直接通过或通过共同基金）和外国投资者一直是新发行美国国债的热情买家。”
本文由阿兰·谢特编辑
The U.S. debt now exceeds the country’s GDP. Should we worry?
2026-05-05 05:00:18 EDT / CBS News
America’s national debt has surpassed the country’s gross domestic product for the first time since World War II, marking a stark increase in the government’s fiscal burden.
Debt held by the public stood at $31.27 trillion at the end of April, edging above the U.S. GDP of $31.22 trillion between April 2025 and March 2026, according to a recent analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
“Outside of a brief period early in the COVID-19 pandemic – when GDP temporarily crashed – debt only exceeded GDP for two years at the end of World War II,” found the nonpartisan think tank, which focuses on fiscal issues and which favors lower deficits.
Federal spending soared during World War II. By contrast, the recent debt surge has been fueled by a combination of tax cuts, increased government spending on interest payments and the challenge of serving an aging population, which is making programs such as Medicare and Social Security more costly, according to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation.
Interest payments top Medicare spending
The nation’s ballooning debt is translating into higher federal interest payments, with the U.S. now spending more to service that debt than to fund national defense or Medicare.
“Among other implications, at our current debt levels, overspending and the national debt threaten our future national defense and military readiness,” Jonathan Williams, the president and chief economist of the nonpartisan American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC), told CBS News. “Case in point, the net interest payments on the national debt now exceed $1 trillion annually.”
Debt held by the public represents the amount owed to parties outside the federal government, such as businesses, individuals, state or local governments, and foreign countries. The nation’s gross debt — which includes money the federal government owes to itself — is approaching $39 trillion, according to U.S. Treasury data.
The question is whether that burgeoning debt augurs potential financial calamity, or is manageable for a nation with a growing, still dynamic economy. Although the picture may remain unclear for years, fiscal hawks like the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget are sounding the alarm.
What’s causing the surge in U.S. debt?
The nation’s debt has swelled since the 2008-09 global financial crisis, when it hovered at around $5 trillion. At the heart of the issue is a mismatch between revenue and spending, according to the Peterson Foundation.
In other words, the U.S. is steadily spending more than it takes in through tax revenue and other sources, requiring the government to issue more debt to finance federal programs.
How fast is the debt climbing?
Federal debt is forecast to continue rising over the next decade, with the Congressional Budget Office projecting that debt held by the public will reach $53 trillion in 2036. Debt is forecast to rise from roughly 101% of U.S. GDP this year to 120% in 2036, exceeding its previous high of 106% in 1946, the agency said in a February report.
To be sure, that forecast represents a set of policy choices — not immutable economic forces. Some experts say the U.S. could steady the ship by exerting fiscal discipline. For instance, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget on Monday proposed reducing the deficit — the gap between federal spending and tax revenue — to 3% of GDP, or roughly half its current level.
That would “put the debt-to-GDP ratio on a downward path with a bit of wiggle room,” the group said. “A 3% of GDP deficit target offers a credible and achievable path forward to stabilizing the debt, growing the economy, preserving fiscal flexibility and bolstering market confidence in the nation’s finances.”
What are the risks?
The nation’s rising debt could lead to a host of economic problems, according to the Peterson Foundation. Those include rising interest costs, which could crowd out spending on federal programs, and a greater risk of a financial crisis, according to economists. Investors could also lose confidence in the nation’s fiscal stability, leading to U.S. credit downgrades.
Running up more debt also puts upward pressure on prices, which means everyday costs rise for American households, according to the Yale Budget Lab.
“The current federal debt is clearly unsustainable, no matter how many times the debt ceiling is raised,” ALEC’s Williams told CBS News. “If Congress doesn’t start implementing fiscally responsible policies in a nonpartisan fashion, Americans will pay the price in higher taxes and slowed economic growth and in the form of ugly price inflation.”
What are markets signaling?
Some experts point out that the U.S. boasts a vibrant, growing economy with a strong credit rating, meaning that while rising debt is a concern, it’s nothing the U.S. can’t handle — at least for now.
Notably, the economy has grown at a faster rate than the average interest paid on debt during four of the last five years, a “positive gap that should keep the growth of the debt-to-GDP ratio in check,” Jacob Manoukian, U.S. head of investment strategy at JPMorgan Chase, wrote in a 2025 report.
And there’s also little evidence that interest payments could become so large that they “overwhelm monetary policy and contribute to greater inflation,” he added.
In the meantime, U.S. debt remains in high demand, signaling that investors don’t see any immediate danger in the nation’s fiscal situation.
“Households (both directly and through mutual funds) and foreign investors have remained avid buyers of newly issued U.S. debt,” Manoukian said.
Edited by Alain Sherter