2026-04-03 04:12:11 UTC / 路透社
作者：露西娅·穆蒂卡尼
2026年4月3日 美国东部时间凌晨4:12 更新于3小时前
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2026年3月30日，美国加利福尼亚州恩西尼塔斯的一家塔吉特百货门店外张贴的招聘启事。路透社/迈克·布莱克 购买授权，将在新标签页打开
- 3月非农就业岗位预计增加6万个
- 经济学家称油价冲击影响劳动力市场尚需时日
- 失业率预计维持在4.4%
华盛顿，4月3日（路透社）——随着医疗保健工人罢工结束以及气温回升，美国3月就业增长或出现反弹，但持续的中东战争正给劳动力市场带来越来越多的下行风险。
经济学家表示，预计出现的反弹将回到去年近乎停滞的增长速度。劳动力市场一直受到不确定性的冲击，最初是唐纳德·特朗普总统的激进进口关税政策。就在部分阴云开始消散之际，美国最高法院于2月推翻了特朗普根据一项专为国家紧急情况制定的法律推行的关税措施。
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不过特朗普随即宣布征收为期最多150天的全球关税。2月底，美国和以色列对伊朗发动空袭，推动全球油价飙升逾50%，推高了国内汽油价格。经济学家表示，这场持续一个月的战争给企业增添了一层不确定性，他们预计本季度劳动力市场将受到冲击。
“我们去年就见过这种情况，不确定性会让企业在招聘方面畏首畏尾，”FHN金融公司高级经济学家索菲亚·基尼-莱德曼说道。“去年最大的不确定性围绕关税展开。今年，则是中东地区的冲突以及油价上涨将带来何种影响。”
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路透社对经济学家的调查显示，美国劳工统计局将于周五发布的备受关注的就业报告预计显示，上月非农就业岗位增加6万个。2月非农就业岗位减少9.2万个，为2025年1月以来的第六次下滑，也是第二大降幅。
失业率预计维持在4.4%不变，但部分经济学家认为可能会升至4.5%。尽管部分金融市场休市，但耶稣受难日并非美国联邦假日。
加州和夏威夷的凯撒医疗集团约3.1万名罢工护士于2月底重返工作岗位，这应该会推动3月医疗保健行业的就业岗位增长。医疗保健一直是就业增长的主要支柱，经济学家援引人口结构变化的理由，预计这一趋势仍将持续。
在受恶劣冬季天气影响出现下滑后，建筑业就业以及休闲和酒店业就业也预计出现反弹。
上月的就业增长可能仅限于少数几个行业，包括社会援助领域。劳工统计局本周公布的数据显示，2月职位空缺降幅创近1.5年来最大，表明劳动力需求正在下滑。
“一切都进展得极为缓慢，不确定性太多，而且我们仍在驱逐移民，”Lightcast公司高级劳动力经济学家罗恩·赫特里克说道。
劳动力供给增长处于历史低位
经济学家表示，特朗普政府的大规模驱逐移民行动也加剧了劳动力市场的停滞，减少了劳动力供给，最终削弱了商品和服务需求以及对工人的需求。经济学家估计，劳动力供给增长处于历史低位意味着，每月只需新增不到5万个就业岗位就能跟上劳动年龄人口的增长步伐。
部分估算甚至认为盈亏平衡点为零甚至为负。摩根大通的经济学家警告称，“单月非农就业数据出现负值将变得更加常见”，并补充道，“即便就业增长足以稳定失业率，至少有三分之一的时间可能会出现非农就业数据为负的情况。”
尽管3月可能还无法体现中东冲突的后续影响，但部分经济学家表示，最早可能会在4月的就业报告中显现这一影响。本周美国全国零售汽油均价突破每加仑4美元，为三年多来首次。
这将推高通胀，削弱家庭购买力，抵消部分工资增长带来的利好，并减缓消费支出。
平均时薪预计上月增长0.3%，这将意味着工资同比增长3.7%。
这场战争在3月令股市市值蒸发约3.2万亿美元。特朗普于周三誓言将对伊朗发动更具攻击性的打击。
“企业将在一段时间内收缩战线，退回保守状态，”波士顿学院经济学教授布莱恩·贝瑟恩说道。“我猜这段时间可能会持续一到两个月。我们可能会在4月和5月看到这种影响。第二季度的前景并不乐观。”
经济学家表示，3月的就业报告不会对利率前景产生任何影响，因为冲突导致的供应链中断的影响仍在经济中传导。
今年降息的可能性已大幅降低。美联储上月将基准利率维持在3.50%-3.75%的区间。
“除非裁员人数上升，否则我们认为‘低招聘、低裁员’的均衡状态虽然令人不安，但具有可持续性，也不需要美联储提前出台政策支持，”法国巴黎银行证券部高级经济学家安德鲁·赫斯比说道。
露西娅·穆蒂卡尼报道；安德里亚·里奇编辑
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US employment growth likely rebounded in March, war casting shadow over labor market
2026-04-03 04:12:11 UTC / Reuters
By Lucia Mutikani
April 3, 2026 4:12 AM UTC Updated 3 hours ago
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A sign posted outside a Target store states the company is hiring in Encinitas, California, U.S., March 30, 2026. REUTERS/Mike Blake Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
- Nonfarm payrolls forecast increasing 60,000 in March
- Economists say it will take time for the oil price shock to impact the labor market
- Unemployment rate is expected to have held steady at 4.4%
WASHINGTON, April 3 (Reuters) – U.S. job growth likely rebounded in March as a strike by healthcare workers ended and temperatures warmed up, but downside risks to the labor market are mounting from the dragging war in the Middle East.
The anticipated bounce back will be a reversion to last year’s near stall-speed growth pace, economists said. The labor market has been buffeted by uncertainty, starting with President Donald Trump’s aggressive import tariffs. Just as some of the clouds were starting to clear, the U.S. Supreme Court in February struck down the duties, which Trump had pursued under a law meant for use in national emergencies.
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Trump, however, responded by imposing a global tariff for up to 150 days. At the end of February, the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran, sending global oil prices soaring more than 50%, and boosting domestic gasoline prices. Economists said the month-long war added another layer of uncertainty for businesses, and they expected the hit on the labor market this quarter.
“We saw this last year, uncertainty puts businesses on the back foot when it comes to hiring,” said Sophia Kearney-Lederman, a senior economist at FHN Financial. “Last year, the big uncertainty was around tariffs. This year, it’s around what the conflict in the Middle East and rising oil prices will mean.”
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The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ closely watched employment report on Friday is likely to show nonfarm payrolls increased by 60,000 jobs last month, a Reuters survey of economists predicted. Payrolls dropped by 92,000 jobs in February, the sixth decline since January 2025 and the second-largest.
The unemployment rate is forecast unchanged at 4.4%, but some economists believe it could rise to 4.5%. Good Friday is not a federal holiday in the United States, though some financial markets are closed.
About 31,000 striking nurses at Kaiser Permanente in California and Hawaii returned to work in late February, which should boost healthcare payrolls in March. Healthcare has been the main pillar of job growth and economists expect it will remain so, citing demographic shifts.
A rebound is also expected in construction employment as well as leisure and hospitality payrolls after declines that were blamed on harsh winter weather.
Job growth last month was likely confined to a few industries, including social assistance. Data from the BLS this week showed job openings decreased by the most in nearly 1-1/2 years in February, pointing to slipping labor demand.
“Everything is just moving at a snail’s pace, lots of uncertainty, and we are still deporting people,” said Ron Hetrick, a senior labor economist at Lightcast.
HISTORICALLY LOW LABOR SUPPLY GROWTH
Mass deportations by the Trump administration have also contributed to labor market paralysis, economists said, by reducing supply, which ultimately hurts demand for goods and services, and workers. Historically low labor supply growth means less than 50,000 jobs per month were needed to keep up with growth in the working-age population, economists estimated.
Some estimates have put the break-even rate at zero or even negative. Economists at JPMorgan cautioned that “negative payroll readings in any given month will become more common,” adding that “even with job growth sufficient to stabilize the unemployment rate, there could be negative payroll readings at least a third of the time.”
While March was probably too early to capture the fallout from the Middle East conflict, some economists said that could become evident as soon as April’s employment report. The national average retail gasoline price this week topped $4 a gallon for the first time in more than three years.
This will feed through to higher inflation and erode households’ purchasing power, offsetting some of the strength in wage growth, and slowing spending.
Average hourly earnings are forecast to have gained 0.3% last month, which would translate to a 3.7% annual increase in wages.
The war wiped off about $3.2 trillion from the stock market in March. Trump on Wednesday vowed more aggressive strikes on Iran.
“Businesses are going to hunker down and go back in the bunker for a period of time,” said Brian Bethune, an economics professor at Boston College. “My guess is that period will likely be one or two months. So we will probably see that in April and May. The prospects for the second quarter are just not good.”
March’s employment report will not have any impact on the interest rate outlook, economists said, with the effects of supply chain disruptions from the conflict still to work their way through the economy.
The odds of a rate cut this year have greatly diminished. The Federal Reserve left its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range last month.
“Absent a pickup in layoffs, we see the ‘low-hire, low-layoff’ equilibrium as uncomfortable but sustainable and one that doesn’t call for pre-emptive Fed policy support,” said Andrew Husby, a senior economist at BNP Paribas Securities Corp.
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci
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