2026年6月6日 / 美国东部时间上午9:00 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
今年年初，托马斯·克里斯琴·欧文斯决定首次尝试预测市场交易。他在1月注册了Kalshi账户。三个月后，在存入500美元保证金后，他开始下注。
“给自己买个生日礼物，投点钱进去图个乐子，”这位29岁的制造工程师告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻。
欧文斯并没指望大赚一笔。他告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻，他只是想多赚点钱贴补自己和部分家人。他初期小有斩获，但开始交易仅一个多月后，这位俄克拉荷马城居民就出现了亏损。
像欧文斯这样的年轻男性表示，他们被预测市场吸引，是为了寻求刺激、快速赚钱，在某些情况下也是为了获得财务保障。
民意调查机构Navigator Research今年4月的一项调查显示，18至34岁的年轻男性中，近40%会使用预测市场。美国领先的预测市场平台之一Kalshi的400万活跃用户中，约有300万为男性。该平台总用户中，六成年龄在18至34岁之间。
近期，预测市场因涉嫌内幕交易遭到审查，多起备受关注的案件核心人物均为男性。其中包括一名谷歌员工，他被指控利用公司机密信息在Polymarket下注，获利超过120万美元。一名美国特种部队士兵被捕，原因是在美国突袭委内瑞拉的消息公开前，他就下注押向前委内瑞拉领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗下台。纽约前众议员乔治·桑托斯也因在Kalshi平台涉嫌内幕交易受到审查。
专家表示，鉴于男性倾向于冒险，他们成为预测市场的主要客户并不令人意外。
“在金融决策和承担风险方面，年轻男性往往比女性表现得更自信，”行为金融专家、投资咨询公司埃德曼金融引擎首席规划官迈克尔·利尔施表示，“这源于他们强烈的‘自己是对的’信念。”
预测市场的刺激感
预测市场允许用户对各类潜在事件下注。在这些平台交易时，用户通常会针对被称为“事件合约”的“是/否”问题下注，合约价格在0美元至1美元之间。预测正确的话，每份合约可获得1美元回报，预测错误则会亏损。
用户可以下注的范围极广，从美国政府是否会承认外星人存在，到哪支男子球队将赢得今年世界杯冠军。身为篮球迷的欧文斯主要交易体育相关赛事，包括下注他家乡的NBA球队俄克拉荷马城雷霆队。
俄克拉荷马城居民托马斯·克里斯琴·欧文斯今年首次在预测市场平台Kalshi交易。托马斯·克里斯琴·欧文斯 供图
他早期的一笔篮球“组合投注”——允许用户将多个事件合约打包成一笔交易——让他用50美元的赌注赚了456美元，回报率超过800%。在另一笔组合投注中，他准确预测了三场职业篮球比赛的结果，将196美元变成了近1700美元。
预测市场用户的另一项热门下注方式是所谓的“提及市场”，用户可以押注政客、名人等在活动中会使用的特定词汇或短语。
加州大学洛杉矶分校学生史蒂文·张就是通过这种方式首次接触到Polymarket。2024年，20岁的他和朋友在图书馆学习时，看到一则社交媒体广告，邀请人们押注特朗普总统在总统辩论中会说什么。张之前已经看过几次这则广告，这次他和朋友们决定投入点资金试试水。
“我记得我们往加密钱包里充了20美元到Polymarket，然后下了注，结果全赔光了，”他说。
20岁的史蒂文·张现在主要在Kalshi的提及市场交易，该平台允许用户押注某人在活动中是否会说出特定词汇或短语。史蒂文·张 供图
张现在会在Kalshi平台下注高度不确定的结果，比如NBA比赛中电视解说员会说什么，以及美伊冲突走向。“我一开始投的钱很少，账户里大概只有150美元，”他说，“我投的是自己输得起的钱。”
哥伦比亚广播公司新闻就Kalshi的男性用户群体问题联系了该平台，但在发稿前未收到回复。
对张来说，预测市场的刺激之处在于“用行动证明自己的判断”。
“知道自己可能对也可能错，我觉得这才是游戏的一部分，”他说。
专家表示，男性青睐预测市场的部分原因可以归结为简单的生理差异。与女性相比，男性更愿意考虑投机性资产，也更不怕赔钱。
“他们可能不太具备经济学家所说的‘禀赋效应’，也就是当他们拥有一定数量的财产时，不像女性那样在意是否会全部损失，”弗吉尼亚理工大学副教授戴维·比耶里告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻。
当男性在预测市场走运时，他们收获的不仅仅是金钱：还有炫耀的资本，比耶里说。
“在这些高声望的市场中取得成功，会获得社会地位，”他告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻，“哪个年轻人不想成为‘华尔街之狼’呢？”
一场必输的游戏？
欧文斯表示，他开通Kalshi账户时，希望赚到的钱能补贴收入，还能给家人提供经济支持。
“我现在还不用抚养谁，但有几个家人目前经济状况很差，所以也想帮衬他们一下，”他说。
除了赚外快，男性可能还会通过预测市场寻求财务保障。西北互助人寿保险公司近期的一项调查发现，75%的男性觉得自己财务状况落后，认为包括预测市场在内的投机性投资可以帮助他们迎头赶上。这一比例在女性中为69%。
“当人们感到落后时，有时冒险的选择看起来像是一条捷径，”西北互助人寿保险公司首席业务官约翰·罗伯茨在一封电子邮件中告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻，并补充说，物价上涨和社会保障可能削减的新闻报道会加剧这种压力。
但大多数用户的实际情况与他们加入平台时的期望大相径庭。经过一连串亏损后，欧文斯的账户余额最近降到了1700美元——低于他存入的2500美元。出于谨慎，他现在把每笔预测市场下注的金额控制在100美元以内，他说。
“我曾一度有近4600美元，但确实都亏光了，”欧文斯在一条短信中写道。
少数Kalshi用户已经赚了数亿美元，但对绝大多数用户来说，这几乎是不可能的。据《华尔街日报》分析，Polymarket上超过67%的利润流向了0.1%的账户。
Polymarket的一位发言人没有回应哥伦比亚广播公司新闻为撰写本文提出的一系列问题，仅发表声明称：“Polymarket对符合条件的18岁及以上成年人开放，我们将继续推进我们的使命，通过开放的、由资本支持的市场与世界分享人类的知情知识。”
金融机构Citizens负责游戏股权研究的董事总经理乔丹·本德表示，普通用户在预测市场中胜算渺茫。
Citizens的研究发现，预测市场用户的投资回报率中位数为-8%，也就是说每投入100美元，就会损失8美元。
“人们不应该指望进入任何形式的博彩，就能全身而退，”本德说。
Prediction markets offer the lure of fast money. Young men say they like their odds.
June 6, 2026 / 9:00 AM EDT / CBS News
Earlier this year, Thomas Christian Owens decided to try his hand at prediction market trading for the first time. He created a Kalshi account in January. Three months and a $500 deposit later, he started betting.
“It was a little bit of a birthday gift to myself to throw some money in there and just have some fun,” the 29-year-old manufacturing engineer told CBS News.
Owens wasn’t expecting to make a killing. He told CBS News that he wanted a little extra money in his pocket to support himself and some of his family members. He had some early successes, but just over a month after he started trading, the Oklahoma City resident found himself in the red.
Young men like Owens say they are drawn to prediction markets in search of thrills, fast money and in some cases, financial security.
Close to 40% of young men between 18 and 34 use prediction markets, according to an April survey from Navigator Research, a public opinion research organization. On Kalshi, one of the leading prediction markets in the U.S., roughly 3 million of the platform’s 4 million active users are male. Six in 10 of the platform’s total users are between the ages of 18 and 34.
Prediction markets have recently drawn scrutiny for alleged insider trading — with men at the center of several high-profile cases. That includes a Google employee who was accused of allegedly making more than $1.2 million on Polymarket betting on confidential company information. A U.S. special forces soldier was arrestedafter allegedly betting on the removal from office of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro before news of the U.S. raid was made public. Former Rep. George Santos of New York is alsounder scrutiny for alleged insider trading on Kalshi.
Experts say it’s not surprising that men are the primary customers of prediction markets, given their propensity for risk.
“Young men tend to express more confidence than women when it comes to financial decisions and taking risks,” said Michael Liersch, a behavioral finance expert and chief planning officer at investment adviser Edelman Financial Engines. “That has to do with a strong belief about being right.”
The thrill of prediction markets
Prediction markets allow users to bet on a wide range of prospective events. To trade on the platforms, users typically place wagers on “yes” and “no” questions called event contracts, which are priced between $0 and $1. A successful wager results in a $1 payout per contract, while an incorrect prediction loses money.
Users can trade on anything from whether the U.S. government will confirm the existence of aliens to which men’s team will win this year’s World Cup. Owens, a basketball fan, mostly trades on sports-related events, including bets on his hometown NBA team, the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Oklahoma City resident Thomas Christian Owens started trading on the prediction market platform Kalshi for the first time this year. Provided by Thomas Christian Owens
One of his early basketball “combo” bets, which lets users bundle multiple event contracts into a single trade, netted him $456 from a $50 wager — a more than an 800% return. On another combo bet, he accurately predicted the outcome of three pro basketball games, turning $196 into nearly $1,700.
Another popular wager for prediction market users is so-called “mention markets,”which allow users to put money on specific words or phrases that politicians, celebrities and other people will use during events.
That’s how Steven Zhang, a student at the University of California, Los Angeles, first heard about Polymarket. The 20-year-old was studying in the library with a friend in 2024 when he came across a social media ad inviting people to bet on what President Trump would say during a presidential debate. Zhang had seen the ad a few times before. This time, he and his friends decided they wanted some skin in the game.
“I remember we put $20 into Polymarket, in a crypto wallet, and then we made some bets, and we lost it all,” he said.
Twenty-year-old Steven Zhang trades mostly on Kalshi mention markets, which allow users to bet on whether someone will say a specific word or phrase during an event. Provided by Steven Zhang
Zhang now trades on Kalshi, betting on highly uncertain outcomes such as what TV announcers will say during NBA games and the U.S.-Iran conflict. “I’m starting really small. I think I have like $150 in my account,” he said. “I have the amount of money that I’m comfortable losing.”
CBS News reached out to Kalshi with questions about its male customer base but did not receive a response prior to publication.
For Zhang, the thrill of prediction markets is putting your money where your mouth is.
“Knowing that you could be right or wrong, I think, is part of the game,” he said.
Experts say that part of why men seek out prediction markets can boil down to a simple biological differentiation. Men are more likely to consider speculative assets and are less afraid to lose money than their female counterparts.
“They have maybe less of what economists call an endowment effect, which is when they have a certain amount, they don’t care if they lose it all as readily as maybe women do,” David Bieri, an associate professor at Virginia Tech, told CBS News.
When men strike it lucky on prediction markets, they walk away with more than just money: they earn bragging rights, Bieri said.
“There is social status from being seen as successful in these high-prestige markets,” he told CBS News. “Which young man does not want to be the ‘Wolf of Wall Street’?”
A losing game?
When Owens opened a Kalshi account, he said he hoped any winnings would supplement his income and enable him to offer financial support to his family.
“I’m not supporting anybody as a dependent right now, but I have a few family members that are really down on their finances at the moment, so trying to help them out, too,” he said.
Beyond making extra money, men may also turn to prediction markets in search of financial security. In a recent survey, Northwestern Mutual found that 75% of men feel financially behind and think speculative investments, including prediction markets, can help them catch up. That’s compared to 69% of women.
“When people feel behind, sometimes risky choices can look like a shortcut,” John Roberts, chief field officer at Northwestern Mutual, told CBS News in an email, adding that headlines about rising prices and possible Social Security cuts can add to the pressure.
But the reality for most users differs from the expectations that brought them to the site. After a string of losses, Owens’ account balance recently dropped to $1,700 — below the $2,500 he had deposited. Out of caution, he is now keeping his prediction market bets to under $100, he said.
“I had almost $4,600 at one point but squandered that, for sure,” Owens wrote in a text message.
A handful of Kalshi users have made hundreds of millions of dollars. But that’s highly unlikely for the vast majority of users. According to a Wall Street Journal analysis, more than 67% of profits on Polymarket went to 0.1% of accounts.
A Polymarket spokesperson didn’t address a series of questions posed by CBS News for this story, instead responding with a statement saying: “Polymarket is open to eligible adults 18 and older, and we continue to build on our mission to share human-informed knowledge with the world through open, capital-backed markets.”
The average user prediction market has the odds stacked against them, according to Jordan Bender, managing director of gaming equity research at the financial firm Citizens.
Research from Citizens found that the median return on investment for a prediction market user was -8%, meaning they would lose $8 for every $100 spent.
“People shouldn’t expect to walk into betting of any type and walk away a winner,” Bender said.