2026年4月24日 / 美国东部时间下午4:27 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
自伊朗战争爆发以来的八周里，这场冲突推高了每加仑汽油超过4美元的价格，给购房者带来压力，并将通胀推至近两年来的最高水平。经济学家表示，即使战争很快结束，美国人仍可能在未来数月内感受到经济冲击。
“我认为损失已经造成，部分原因是油价无法回落，至少在近期内不会，”穆迪分析公司首席经济学家马克·赞迪对哥伦比亚广播公司新闻表示。
这场战争扰乱了霍尔木兹海峡的航运，这条战略水道通常承载着全球五分之一的石油供应量。油价因此飙升，给美国人加油和预订旅行带来了广泛影响。截至周五午间，国际原油基准布伦特原油交易价格为每桶105美元，较战争爆发前上涨了44%。
赞迪表示，由于中东地区能源设施遭受广泛破坏，石油产量需要很长时间才能恢复到战前每日1亿桶的水平。
多项预测显示，尽管经济学家预计油价将在今年晚些时候回落，但2026年全年油价都可能维持在战前水平之上。
“我们的观点是，全面正常化仍需时间，尤其是在供应链和能源产能方面，”安永帕特农高级经济学家莉迪亚·布苏尔说道，她指出了战争带来的“持续影响”。
白宫没有立即回应置评请求。
需要明确的是，伊朗战争并不是美国经济面临逆风的唯一因素。人工智能也正在重塑劳动力市场，包括Meta和微软在内的公司本周宣布了大规模裁员。特朗普政府的关税政策带来的不确定性和成本上升也持续存在，此前最高法院驳回了其“解放日”关税政策，该政府已承诺将征收额外进口关税。
通胀预计将居高不下
经济学家对哥伦比亚广播公司新闻表示，他们预计4月通胀数据将居高不下，并在2026年全年维持高位。上个月，消费者价格指数同比达到3.3%，为2024年5月以来的最高水平，能源价格上涨是主要推动因素。
无党派智库卡托研究所通用经济学副总裁斯科特·林西科姆表示，另一个关键通胀指标——个人消费支出价格指数——到今年年底可能达到4%，是美联储2%目标利率的两倍。该指标2月份同比上涨2.8%。
“当然，消费者希望通货紧缩，但我们绝对没有看到这种情况，”他说。“我们应该预期物价仍将高于人们的预期。”
高能源价格带来的财务压力可能会促使消费者缩减开支，这可能对GDP增长造成逆风，因为每1美元GDP中约有70美分来自消费者支出。
安永帕特农首席经济学家格雷戈里·达科预计，这场战争今年可能拖累GDP增速0.3个百分点，全年GDP增长率为1.8%。这较2025年记录的2.1%增速有所放缓。
消费者的缩减开支是“我们预计经济活动拖累显现的关键渠道”，同样来自安永帕特农的布苏尔说道，她补充说，疲软的劳动力市场和低迷的工资增长也可能削弱购买力。
自战争爆发以来，消费支出一直保持韧性，尽管美国银行的数据显示，大部分增长是由高收入家庭推动的。这些消费者往往在股市中有更多投资，尽管伊朗战争给经济带来拖累，股市仍持续创下新高。
直击美国人的痛处
对许多美国人来说，伊朗战争最大的影响可能体现在加油站。由于全球石油供应短缺，平均汽油价格自冲突爆发以来每加仑上涨了超过1美元。根据美国汽车协会的数据，截至周五，美国全国平均汽油价格为每加仑4.06美元。
赞迪表示，在最乐观的情况下，到今年年底汽油价格可能稳定在每加仑3.50美元左右。这虽然能为驾车者提供一些缓解，但仍高于战前2.98美元的水平。
由于航空公司提高机票价格并收取行李费以抵消航空燃油成本——截至本月初，航空燃油价格每加仑上涨了超过2美元——夏季旅行的成本也越来越高。
尽管目前大部分经济痛苦集中在旅游业，但经济学家表示，随着柴油价格上涨推高货物运输成本，进而推高食品杂货和其他商品价格，美国人可能很快会在生活的其他方面感受到压力。
“任何用卡车运输的东西都会更贵，”赞迪说。“从食品杂货到亚马逊包裹，无一例外。”
经济学家表示，化肥生产和供应的中断可能给食品价格带来压力。化肥生产使用天然气，而战争导致天然气供应紧张。在周五发布的一份报告中，国际能源署预测，中东地区的冲突将使全球天然气供应紧张状况持续两年。
“批发商、分销商和零售商可以各自承担部分冲击，”林西科姆在谈到战争造成的供应链中断时说道。“因此，可能不会完全转嫁给消费者，但总会有一部分影响传递下去。”
In 8 weeks, the Iran war has dented the U.S. economy. The damage could linger, economists say.
April 24, 2026 / 4:27 PM EDT / CBS News
In the eight weeks since the Iran war started, the conflict has driven gas prices above $4 a gallon, strained homebuyers and pushed inflation to its highest level in nearly two years. Even if the war ends soon, Americans are likely to feel the financial sting for months, economists say.
“I think the damage has already been done, in part because there’s no going back on oil prices, at least not any time in the near future,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told CBS News.
The war has disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway through which one-fifth of the world’s oil supply normally flows. Oil prices have jumped as a result, creating widespread consequences for Americans as they fuel their cars and book travel. As of midday Friday, Brent crude, the international benchmark, was trading at $105 a barrel, up 44% since before the war started.
Oil production will take a long time to ramp up to prewar levels of 100 million barrels a day because of the widespread damage to energy facilities across the Middle East, Zandi said.
While economists forecast that oil prices will dip later this year, they are likely to remain above pre-war levels throughout 2026, according to multiple forecasts.
“Our view is that full normalization will still take time, especially when it comes to supply chains, when it comes to energy capacity,” said Lydia Boussour, a senior economist at EY-Parthenon, noting the “lingering impacts” of the war.
The White House didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
To be sure, the Iran war isn’t the only factor creating headwinds for the U.S. economy. Artificial intelligence is also reshaping the labor market, with companies including Meta and Microsoft announcing major job cuts this week. Uncertainty and higher costs tied to the Trump administration’s tariff policies also persist, as it has pledged to pursue additional import duties after the Supreme Court struck down its “liberation day” tariffs.
Inflation expected to run hot
Economists told CBS News they expect inflation to come in hot in April and remain elevated throughout 2026. Last month, the Consumer Price Index reached 3.3% on an annual basis, the highest level since May 2024, driven by a jump in energy prices.
Another key inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price Index, could hit 4% by the end of the year, double the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%, according to Scott Lincicome, vice president of general economics at the Cato Institute, a nonpartisan think tank. The measure rose by 2.8% on an annual basis in February.
“Consumers, of course, want deflation, and we’re definitely not getting that,” he said. “We should expect things to remain higher than what people want.”
The financial pinch from higher energy prices could prompt consumers to pull back, potentially creating a headwind for GDP growth because about 70 cents of every $1 of GDP stems from consumer spending.
EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco projects the war could drag GDP down by 0.3 percentage points this year, with GDP growing by 1.8% for the year. That represents a slowdown from the 2.1% pace recorded in 2025.
Cutbacks from consumers are “really the key channel through which we’re expecting the drag on economic activity to materialize,” said Boussour, also with EY-Parthenon, adding that a softer labor market and weak wage growth could also erode purchasing power.
Spending has remained resilient since the war started, although Bank of America data shows most of the growth is being driven by higher-income households. These consumers tend to have more money invested in the stock market, which has continued to hit new records despite the economic drag from the Iran war.
Hitting Americans where it hurts
For many Americans, the biggest impact of the Iran war may be at the gas station, where average prices are up over $1 per gallon since the conflict started due to the global oil supply shortage. As of Friday, the average cost for a gallon of gas in the U.S. was $4.06, according to AAA.
Zandi said under the most optimistic scenarios, gas could settle closer to $3.50 a gallon by the end of the year. While that could offer some relief to motorists, it’s still above the pre-war level of $2.98.
Summer travel is also growing more expensive as a result of the Iran war, as airlines hike ticket prices and introduce bag fees to help offset the cost of jet fuel, which is up more than $2 a gallon as of earlier this month.
While much of the economic pain so far has been concentrated in travel, economists say Americans could soon feel the strain in other parts of their lives as higher diesel prices increase the cost to transport goods, pushing up grocery costs and prices of other items.
“Anything that’s put on a truck is going to cost more,” Zandi said. “That goes from groceries to Amazon packages.”
Disruptions to fertilizer production and supply could put pressure on food prices, economists say. Fertilizer is produced using natural gas, which has been constrained due to the war. In a report released Friday, the International Energy Agency predicted that the conflict in the Middle East will keep global natural gas supplies tight for two years.
“Wholesalers and distributors and retailers can each absorb some of the hit,” Lincicome said, speaking about supply chain disruptions caused by the war. “So it might not be a full pass through to consumers, but it’s going to be some.”
