2026-04-27T20:19:00-0400 / 哥伦比亚广播公司
作者：詹妮弗·德·平托、弗雷德·巴克斯
更新时间：2026年4月27日 / 美国东部时间晚上8:25 / 哥伦比亚广播公司
加州州长初选以及周二的辩论，正处于这样一个背景之下：选民认为该州的生活成本高得难以承受，许多人觉得著名的“加州梦”遥不可及。
那么，初选选民当下希望如何解决这一问题？
民主党选民往往比其他选民更认可本州的经济状况，他们希望候选人至少在某些政策上与州长加文·纽瑟姆保持一致，并且绝大多数希望候选人能反对特朗普总统。而共和党选民则对本州的状况描绘得更为黯淡。
这一切都意味着，这场竞争仍然非常开放，有众多候选人参与其中，包括分歧严重的民主党阵营，未表态的选民比例超过了任何单一候选人的支持率。而且，许多选民对多位候选人都有所考量，而非只支持当前自己意向的那一位。
选择的标准
“价值观”和“判断力”是候选人身上最引人注目的优秀品质。民主党选民还希望候选人有“从政经验”——这或许一定程度上反映出他们是现任执政党。
更多共和党选民则希望候选人能带给他们“变革”。
多数选民表示辩论至少有一定意义，这一切都预示着初选前的最后一个月将充满变数。
生活成本
认为加州生活成本“难以承受”的加州民众比例较五年前有所上升，这在一定程度上反映了新冠疫情后数年间的通胀压力。
从更广泛、或许更长期的角度来看，民众对“加州梦”能否实现缺乏信心。
不过，年轻人相对更乐观，50岁以下人群的信心高于年长加州民众，民主党选民的信心也高于共和党选民。
整体经济状况
除了个人层面，不同党派人士对本州经济状况的看法略有不同。这进而影响了他们对州长的施政诉求。
总体而言，与其他选民相比，民主党选民对加州的发展状况印象更好。
民主党选民还普遍认为，加州总体上为美国其他州树立了良好榜样。共和党选民则认为加州树立了坏榜样。
因此，民主党初选选民希望候选人的政策至少在某些方面，即便不是完全一致，也与纽瑟姆的政策相似。
在民主党阵营内部，那些希望候选人政策与纽瑟姆非常相似的选民，更倾向于前卫生与公众服务部部长泽维尔·贝塞拉；而希望候选人政策有所不同的民主党选民，则更青睐慈善家汤姆·施泰尔。
对共和党选民来说，他们对本州的描绘要严峻得多。他们认为加州现状不佳，经济不仅糟糕，而且比全美整体经济更差。
对于下一任州长应优先采取哪些措施来帮助中产阶级和工薪阶层，两党存在分歧。
民主党选民希望下一任州长优先采取多项措施，其中包括建设更多住房；而共和党选民则将降低税收列为首要任务。
汽油价格
汽油价格的影响尤其显著。（这并非加州独有，我们的全国民调也显示了这一点。）
针对加州如何应对汽油价格问题，选民对下一任州长是否应暂停征收部分州汽油税意见不一，略多的人表示不应这么做。
经济、就业和通胀问题都是两党选民心中的头等或次等大事。移民和犯罪问题对共和党选民而言重要性更高，而气候变化和医疗保健则是民主党选民更关注的议题。
在全国范围内，美国民众已将汽油价格上涨与伊朗冲突联系起来。
绝大多数加州选民反对美国在伊朗的军事行动，并表示候选人在该问题上的立场对他们的投票至关重要。
特朗普因素
民主党选民绝大多数希望候选人始终反对特朗普，尤其是不会在移民海关执法局的行动上与特朗普政府合作。
这在一定程度上是因为，他们和大多数选民一样，认为特朗普政府对加州的待遇比对其他州更差。
共和党选民则希望候选人通常——即便不是始终——支持特朗普。
投票意向
从投票意向来看，候选人阵营仍然分散，整体竞争非常开放，目标是争取进入11月大选的前两名。没有任何两位候选人脱颖而出，支持率最高的两位分别是共和党人史蒂夫·希尔顿和民主党人汤姆·施泰尔，支持率处于15%左右的区间，其他多数候选人之间的支持率差距仅为个位数。事实上，未表态的选民数量超过了任何单一候选人的支持率，这凸显了这场选举的潜在波动性。
该州民主党选民人数远多于共和党选民。然而，由于多位民主党候选人参选并分散了民主党选票，民主党内部有人担心最终会有两位共和党候选人跻身前两名，导致民主党人被排除在大选之外。
话虽如此，民主党选民尚未集体团结支持某一位或两位候选人。
我们还询问了选民可能会考虑支持哪些候选人——即便他们目前并未支持这些人——选民可以选择任意数量的候选人。
下图展示了愿意考虑支持每位候选人的选民比例，这或许反映了候选人目前的潜在支持上限，如果他们能将这种考量转化为最终支持的话。
此外，对许多选民来说，还有很多候选人他们尚未充分了解。
民主党选民目前表示会考虑多位候选人，但几乎清一色都是民主党候选人。例如，在考虑支持贝塞拉和施泰尔的选民中，几乎没有人同时也考虑支持共和党候选人希尔顿或比安科。同样，考虑支持共和党候选人的选民中，也很少有人同时考虑支持民主党候选人。
数量众多的未表态选民，部分原因可能是相当一部分初选选民对当前的候选人选择不满意。无党派人士最希望能有更多选择。但这些不满意的选民同时也不太可能参加投票，因此如果他们不参与投票，选民群体可能会发生变化。
本次哥伦比亚广播公司/舆观调查于2026年4月23日至27日期间进行，调查对象为1479名具有代表性的加州登记选民。样本根据性别、年龄、种族、教育程度和地理区域进行了加权，加权依据为选民档案和美国人口普查数据，以及2024年总统选举投票情况。登记选民的误差幅度为±4.2个百分点，可能参加初选的选民误差幅度为±4.1个百分点。
CBS News poll on California governor’s race: What are primary voters looking for?
2026-04-27T20:19:00-0400 / CBS News
By Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus
Updated on: April 27, 2026 / 8:25 PM EDT / CBS News
The California governor’s primary — and Tuesday’s debate — take place against a backdrop of voters calling the cost of living in the state unmanageable, with many feeling the famous “California Dream” is out of reach.
So, what would primary voters want done about that right now?
Democrats, who tend to see the state’s economy as better than other voters do, are looking for at least some similarity with Gov. Gavin Newsom’s policies and overwhelmingly want a candidate who’d oppose President Trump. Republicans, however, paint a much bleaker picture of the state.
All that means it’s still a wide-open contest with a lot of candidates in the mix, including a heavily fractured Democratic field, as the percentage of undecided voters outweighs any single candidate’s support. And candidates are often being considered by more people than those who are currently voting for them.
Describing a choice
The descriptors “values” and “judgment” stand out as desirable qualities in a candidate. Democrats also want “experience” — perhaps partly reflecting that they are the incumbent party.
More Republicans want a candidate they associate with “change.”
With most voters saying debates matter at least somewhat, it all suggests a dramatic final month before the primary.
Cost of living
More Californians call the cost of living in California “unmanageable” than did five years ago, partly reflecting the inflationary pressures over the ensuing years after COVID.
More broadly, and perhaps more long term, there is a lack of confidence that the California Dream is attainable.
That said, younger people remain relatively more optimistic, and there’s more confidence among those under 50 than among older Californians, and among Democrats more so than Republicans.
The economy overall
Beyond the personal, partisans have slightly different takes on what’s happening to the state’s economy. That, in turn, shapes what they want from a governor.
Democrats tend to have a better impression of how things are going in California, compared to other voters overall.
Democrats also tend to say California more generally sets a good example for the rest of the nation. Republicans think it sets a bad one.
So, Democratic primary voters want a candidate with policies at least somewhat, if not very, similar to Newsom’s.
Within the Democratic ranks, those who want a candidate with very similar policies to Newsom are a little more for former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra, while Democrats who want someone with different policies are a bit more for philanthropist Tom Steyer.
Republicans, for their part, paint a much more dire picture of the state. They see a state where things aren’t going well, where the economy is not just bad, but is worse than the nation’s.
And there is a difference of opinion on what the next governor should prioritize in their approach to helping the middle and working class.
Democrats want the next governor to prioritize a mix that includes building more housing, whereas Republicans largely identify the top priority as lowering taxes.
Gas prices
Gas prices in particular have hit hard. (This is not unique to California, as our polling nationally has also shown.)
As one potential policy to address gas prices in California, voters are mixed on whether they want the next governor to suspend part of the state’s gas tax, with slightly more saying not to do so.
The issues of the economy and jobs and inflation are at or near the top for both parties. Immigration and crime are higher in importance for Republicans, and climate change and healthcare are higher for Democrats.
Nationally, Americans have perceived a connection between the rise in gas prices and the conflict in Iran.
Large majorities of California voters are opposed to the U.S. military action in Iran and say a candidate’s position on it is important to their vote.
The Trump factor
Democrats overwhelmingly want a candidate who always opposes Mr. Trump, and in particular would not cooperate with the administration on ICE operations.
This is partly because they — like the majority of voters overall — believe the Trump administration treats California worse than other states.
Republicans want a candidate who usually, if not always, supports Mr. Trump.
Vote choice
On vote choice, it remains a fractured field and a very open contest overall to secure the top two positions that advance to the November general election. No single two candidates have pulled away, and the two highest — Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Tom Steyer — are in the mid-teens, with most of the others separated from each other by single digits. In fact, there are more “undecided” voters than any single candidate has support, underscoring the potential volatility of the race.
The state’s Democratic voters greatly outnumber its Republican voters. However, with many Democratic candidates running and splitting up all those Democratic votes, there is concern among Democrats that the two Republican candidates could then finish on top. That would leave the Democrats shut out of the general election.
That said, individual Democrats haven’t yet consolidated behind any one or two candidates en masse.
We also asked which candidates voters might consider —even if they’re not backing them now — and voters could pick as many or as few as they liked.
The chart below shows the percentage who would consider supporting each candidate, perhaps reflecting their ceiling at the moment, if they can translate that consideration into support down the road.
Also, for many voters, there are a lot of candidates about whom they have not heard enough.
Democratic voters say they would consider multiple candidates right now, but almost exclusively Democratic candidates. For instance, very few of those considering Becerra and Steyer are also considering Republicans Hilton or Bianco. Similarly, very few who are considering GOP candidates are also considering Democratic ones.
That large number of undecided voters could be partially because a sizable portion of primary voters are not satisfied with the current choice of candidates. It’s independents who most wish there were more choices. But those unsatisfied are also less likely to say they will vote, so it may be that the electorate shifts as well if they don’t show up.
This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a representative sample of 1,479 registered voters in California interviewed between April 23-27, 2026. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, and geographic region based on the voter file and U.S. Census data, as well as to 2024 presidential vote. The margin of error is ± 4.2 points for registered voters and ± 4.1 points for likely primary voters.