2026年4月16日 美国东部时间凌晨4:00 / CNN政治频道
亚伦·布莱克 分析
最高法院 唐纳德·特朗普 最高法院大法官
塞缪尔·阿利托大法官与克拉伦斯·托马斯大法官
盖蒂图片社
唐纳德·特朗普总统似乎正着重推动一项构想：年迈的保守派大法官塞缪尔·阿利托与克拉伦斯·托马斯或许会考虑在今年选择一个“恰逢其时”的退休时机。
特朗普在接受福克斯商业台主持人玛丽亚·巴尔蒂罗莫采访时，对两位大法官的司法理念和决策程序表达了尊重。但他也多次暗示，两人尽快退休具有政治效用：
- “我认为他是有史以来最优秀的大法官之一，”特朗普在评价阿利托时说道，随后补充道：“如果能有一位继任者，那将是件好事，我能为未来40年做安排。”
- 特朗普表示，他已经拟定了一份潜在继任者的简短名单。
- 他似乎以已故自由派大法官露丝·巴德·金斯伯格作为警示案例，指出她当初拒绝退休，最终在特朗普得以任命保守派继任者时去世。“她在民主党内部真的害了自己，”特朗普说道。
- 他两次提及，大法官可以通过任命理念相似的继任者，将自身的司法意识形态在最高法院延续数十年。
和往常一样，特朗普关于最高法院的言论带有极强的政治色彩。
但他也提出了一些合理观点。出于诸多原因，这是2026年最重大的政治议题之一。76岁的阿利托与77岁的托马斯所做出的决定，可能会在诸多方面产生深远影响。
首先需要明确的是，阿利托和/或托马斯退休将完全符合最高法院的运作惯例。最近七位退休的大法官（而非像金斯伯格或安东宁·斯卡利亚那样在任上去世）都是在与他们政治立场一致的政党同时掌控总统职位和参议院时选择退休——从而能够确认一位理念相似的继任者。
尽管法官们总爱谈论司法部门并非只是另一个政治分支，但他们选择退休时机的规律似乎并非巧合。
阿利托和托马斯已接近正常退休年龄，即便两人都相对年轻。最近退休的10位大法官平均年龄为80岁。
两人都可能继续留任，但如果共和党在11月的选举中失去参议院多数席位，那么大法官们可能要等到80多岁，共和党才能再次同时掌控白宫和参议院。
（不过托马斯选择留任的一个原因是：他距离成为美国历史上任职时间最长的大法官仅剩约两年时间。）
此外，无论来自特朗普还是其他共和党人，都可能会面临巨大的政治压力，以避免重演金斯伯格给民主党带来的困境。（在金斯伯格事件发生后，斯蒂芬·布雷耶在乔·拜登总统任期内面临提前退休的压力，并最终于2022年退休。）
特朗普面临的政治风险颇高，因为目前的迹象越来越表明，民主党将在2026年的选举中取得重大进展，至少在众议院是如此。（民主党要拿下参议院将困难得多，因为这需要赢得一些特朗普以两位数优势拿下的红州席位，但也不能完全排除这种可能性。）
更重要的是，即便民主党在11月未能拿下参议院，今年以53票共和党多数席位提名大法官，与在任期后半段以50或51票提名，结果可能会大相径庭。在后一种情况下，他可能需要依靠阿拉斯加州丽莎·穆尔科斯基和缅因州苏珊·柯林斯（如果她今年能连任的话）等温和派参议员的支持。
尼尔·戈萨奇大法官与艾米·科尼·巴雷特大法官
盖蒂图片社/路透社
考虑到特朗普最近对自己任命的两位大法官在关税案中作出不利于他的裁决感到不满——艾米·科尼·巴雷特和尼尔·戈萨奇——他可能更希望拥有一定的选择空间，任命一位他认为更忠诚的大法官。
但总统推动这一方向可能还有其他原因，而非仅仅是确认提名的可行性因素。
首先，确认大法官的斗争可能会为共和党基础选民带来急需的投票热情提振，目前共和党选民对中期选举的热情远低于民主党。
有人认为，2018年大选前夕民主党试图阻止特朗普任命布雷特·卡瓦诺的举动，帮助共和党在原本对其不利的选举中赢得了一些脆弱的红州参议院席位。
但或许更重要的原因是特朗普的政治遗产。
替换阿利托、托马斯或两人中的一位，并不会改变最高法院目前6比3的保守派多数席位格局。但这可能会将保守派多数席位的稳固性维持更长时间。
特朗普在接受福克斯商业台采访时谈到，要任命一位能任职40年的大法官。例如，如果他用一位40多岁的大法官替换阿利托或托马斯中的一人，保守派大法官的平均年龄将低于60岁。如果他用两位40多岁的大法官替换两人，这一平均年龄将降至55岁左右。
这种变动将让特朗普对最高法院产生更深远的影响，在其第一和第二任期内，他将任命9位大法官中的4位，甚至5位。
这似乎是一个让他颇为感兴趣的构想。
在福克斯商业台采访的该环节尾声，巴尔蒂罗莫试图转换话题。但特朗普打断她，提出了最后一个观点：暗示他可能需要处理的不只是阿利托和托马斯的退休事宜。
“理论上来说，他们告诉我会有两到三位大法官退休。如果你看看统计数据，可能是两位，可能是三位，也可能是一位。我不确定，”特朗普说道，随后补充道：“我已经准备好采取行动了。”
Trump leans in on a major 2026 issue: possibly replacing Justices Alito and Thomas
Apr 16, 2026, 4:00 AM ET / CNN Politics
Analysis by
Aaron Blake
Supreme Court Donald Trump Supreme Court justices
Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas
Getty Images
President Donald Trump seems to be leaning in on the idea that elderly conservative Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas might think about a conveniently timed retirement this year.
Trump couched his comments to Fox Business’ Maria Bartiromo in respect for the jurisprudence and decision-making processes of both justices. But he also repeatedly gestured at the political utility of them retiring soon:
- “I think he is one of the great justices of all time,” Trump said of Alito, before adding: “It’d be nice to say, now I have somebody for 40 years.”
- Trump said he already had a short list of possible replacements.
- He seemed to point to the late liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg as a cautionary tale, noting she declined to retire and then died when Trump was able to appoint a conservative replacement. “She really hurt herself within the Democrat Party,” Trump said.
- He twice alluded to how justices can preserve their ideology on the court for decades to come by allowing for a like-minded replacement.
As they often are, Trump’s comments about the Supreme Court were remarkably political.
But he also made some good points. This is one of the biggest political questions of 2026, for a host of reasons. And the decisions made by Alito, 76, and Thomas, 77, could reverberate in many ways.
The first thing to note is that Alito and/or Thomas retiring would be very much in keeping with how things work on the Supreme Court. The last seven justices to retire (as opposed to dying in office like Ginsburg or Antonin Scalia) have done so when the party more aligned with them controlled both the presidency and the Senate — and could confirm a like-minded replacement.
While judges like to talk about how the judiciary isn’t just another political branch of government, the pattern of their retirement timing doesn’t seem like a coincidence.
Alito and Thomas are close to the normal retirement age, even if both are a bit on the young side. The last 10 justices to retire were 80 years old on average.
Both could stick it out, but if Republicans lose the Senate in November, the justices could be well into their 80s before the GOP holds the White House and the Senate again.
(One reason Thomas could hang on, though: He’s about two years from becoming the longest-serving justice ever.)
And there will also likely be significant political pressure to avoid the situation that Ginsburg put Democrats in — whether it comes from Trump or other Republicans. (Stephen Breyer faced pressure to retire early in Joe Biden’s presidency after the Ginsburg episode. He eventually did in 2022.)
The political risk for Trump is great because it’s looking increasingly likely that Democrats will make significant gains in the 2026 election, at least in the House. (It’ll be much harder for Democrats to flip the Senate since it involves winning some red states that Trump won by double digits, but it can’t be ruled out.)
And what’s more, even if Senate Democrats come up short in November, there could be a big difference between Trump nominating a justice with 53 Republican votes this year and trying to do so with 50 or 51 in the second half of his term. In the latter cases, he could be relying on more moderate senators like Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski and Maine’s Susan Collins (if she wins reelection this year).
Justice Neil Gorsuch and Justice Amy Coney Barrett
Getty Images/Reuters
Given Trump’s recent disenchantment with two of his appointees who ruled against him on the tariffs case — Justices Amy Coney Barrett and Neil Gorsuch — he would likely prefer to have some cushion to choose someone he might view as more loyal.
But the president may have other reasons, apart from the confirmability factor, to try and usher things in this direction.
First, a confirmation fight could provide a sorely needed turnout boost for a GOP base that is significantly less enthusiastic about the midterms than Democrats are.
There is some thought that Democrats’ attempts to defeat Trump’s nomination of Brett Kavanaugh in the runup to the 2018 election helped the GOP win some vulnerable red-state Senate races in what was otherwise a tough election for the party.
But perhaps the more significant reason could be Trump’s legacy.
Replacing Alito, Thomas or both with younger justices would not change the court’s 6-3 conservative majority. But it would likely help cement it for much longer.
Trump in his comments to Fox Business spoke about appointing someone who could serve for 40 years. If he replaced even one of Alito or Thomas with someone in their 40s, for example, the average age of the conservative justices would be less than 60. If he replaced both with justices in their 40s, that average age would drop into the mid-50s.
Such a change would give Trump an even more significant imprint on the court, appointing either 4 out of 9 justices or 5 out of 9 justices between his first and second terms.
Which is an idea that seems to interest him quite a bit.
At the end of that section of the Fox Business interview, Bartiromo sought to switch topics. But Trump cut in to make one last point: suggesting maybe he could be dealing with more than just Alito and Thomas retiring.
“In theory, it’s two or three, they tell me. If you just read statistics, it could be two, could be three, could be one. I don’t know,” Trump said, before adding: “I’m prepared to do it.”