2026年4月21日 美国东部时间下午3:33 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
近期美国各地的驾车者在加油站感受到了些许缓解，汽油价格回落至每加仑4美元附近。但专家表示， motorists不应指望燃油价格能很快回到伊朗战争爆发前的水平。
穆迪分析首席经济学家马克·赞迪（Mark Zandi）预计，除非发生经济衰退等重大经济冲击，否则今年汽油价格不会跌破3美元。
“在最乐观的情况下，我预计到年底汽油价格将稳定在接近3.50美元的水平，”他在一封邮件中告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻。
2月28日美国和以色列对伊朗发动军事打击时，全国平均汽油价格为每加仑2.98美元。但这场冲突严重影响了具有战略重要性的霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输，推动汽油价格在4月9日升至每加仑4.17美元的近期高点。
未来数月燃油价格或将居高不下
燃油成本与油价密切相关，自伊朗战争爆发以来油价一直处于高位。对驾车者来说不幸的是，原油价格上涨后汽油价格的上涨速度通常远快于油价下跌时汽油价格的回落速度——经济学家将这一模式称为“火箭与羽毛”原则。
赞迪估计，由于战争对中东地区石油基础设施造成破坏，全球石油供应反弹可能需要数月甚至数年时间。霍尔木兹海峡何时能完全重新开放也尚不明确。
赞迪表示，因此全球石油供应减少可能会在未来数月内持续推高美国燃油价格。他预测，即使冲突结束，由于通过该海峡运输石油的风险上升，油价也不太可能回到战争前的水平。
根据美国汽车协会（AAA）的数据，截至周二，美国汽油平均价格为每加仑4.02美元，较冲突爆发以来上涨了逾1美元。
“如果霍尔木兹海峡明天就能重新开放——也许要到10月下旬、11月或12月——全国平均油价有望跌破每加仑3美元，” GasBuddy石油专家帕特里克·德哈恩（Patrick De Haan）周一对哥伦比亚广播公司新闻表示，“但这绝非板上钉钉。”
在周日接受美国有线电视新闻网采访时被问及何时预计汽油价格会跌破3美元时，美国能源部长克里斯·赖特（Chris Wright）表示：“今年晚些时候有可能出现这种情况。也可能要等到明年。”
但特朗普总统似乎与赖特的说法相矛盾，他周一在接受《国会山报》采访时表示，他的能源部长在这个时间线问题上“错了”。特朗普本人则表示，汽油价格将“一旦冲突结束”就会下跌，他指的是伊朗战争。
汽油价格可能上涨的原因
德哈恩表示，鉴于油价持续波动，汽油价格也存在回升风险。
上周五伊朗表示霍尔木兹海峡“完全开放”后，油价下跌了约10%，但周末美伊紧张局势升级后油价迅速回升。
赖特告诉美国有线电视新闻网，汽油价格已经见顶，并将持续下跌。
德哈恩表示，如果特朗普推进袭击伊朗民用基础设施的威胁，汽油价格可能会暴涨。特朗普周日表示，如果伊朗不同意和平协议，美国将“摧毁每一座发电厂和每一座桥梁”。
“我认为美伊之间的争端不会很快结束，”德哈恩说，“所以说价格已经见顶，我倒是希望如此，但这可能还是一厢情愿。”
德哈恩还预计，在6月至11月的飓风季期间，汽油价格将出现波动。
政治风险咨询公司欧亚集团的能源分析师格雷戈里·布鲁（Gregory Brew）也认为，价格上涨尚未结束。他在周一的一份研究报告中表示，随着夏季出行需求上升，汽油价格“可能会上涨”。
受影响最严重的群体
高盛集团的研究显示，汽油价格上涨对美国收入最低的20%家庭造成的负担尤为沉重。该投行的分析师发现，与收入最高的20%家庭相比，低收入家庭税后收入中用于汽油支出的比例大约是前者的四倍。
其他研究显示，汽油价格上涨可能会大幅抵消美国民众今年获得的更丰厚的退税，这得益于去年通过的共和党“庞大而完美的法案”减税和支出法案。
斯坦福经济政策研究所的经济学家估计，由于伊朗战争推高了油价，美国普通家庭今年在汽油上的支出将增加740美元。
相比之下，根据美国国税局的数据，今年的平均退税金额为3397美元，较2025年增长11%，即约350美元。
编辑：埃米·皮奇（Aimee Picchi）
民调：65%的美国人将高油价归咎于特朗普
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/65-percent-americans-blame-trump-gas-prices-poll/
Will gas dip below $3 a gallon this year? Here’s what experts predict.
April 21, 2026 3:33 PM EDT / CBS News
Drivers around the U.S. have seen some modest relief at the pump lately as gasoline prices retreat toward $4 a gallon. But motorists shouldn’t bank on fuel costs returning to where they were just before the Iran war anytime soon, according to experts.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, doesn’t expect gas prices to drop below $3 this year absent a major economic shock, such as a recession.
“Under the most optimistic scenarios, I would expect gas prices to settle closer to $3.50 by year’s end,” he told CBS News in an email.
When the U.S. and Israel launched military strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, the national average price of gas was $2.98 a gallon. But the conflict has crippled oil shipments passing through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, pushing gas prices to a recent high of $4.17 a gallon on April 9.
Expect higher fuel prices for months
Fuel costs are closely tied to oil prices, which have been elevated since the Iran war started. And unfortunately for motorists, gas prices typically rise much faster after crude spikes than they recede when oil drops — a pattern known by economists as the “rockets and feathers” principle,
Zandi estimates it will take months, if not years, for the global oil supply to rebound due to the damage inflicted by the war on oil infrastructure across the Middle East. It’s also unclear when the Strait of Hormuz will fully reopen.
As a result, diminished global oil supply is likely to keep U.S. fuel prices elevated for months to come, Zandi said. Oil prices are unlikely to return to pre-war levels even when the conflict ends, given the heightened risk of transporting oil through the strait, he predicted.
As of Tuesday, the average U.S. gas price was $4.02, according to AAA, up more than a dollar since the conflict started.
“If the strait were to reopen by tomorrow — maybe late October, November, December — the national average could make a run at falling below $3 a gallon,” Patrick De Haan, a petroleum expert at GasBuddy, told CBS News on Monday. “But that is certainly not a guarantee.”
Asked when he thinks gas will retreat below $3 a gallon during a CNN interview on Sunday, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said, “That could happen later this year. That might not happen ’til next year.”
President Trump, however, appeared to contradict Wright, telling The Hill on Monday his energy secretary was “wrong” on that timeline. For his part, Mr. Trump said that gas prices will drop, “as soon as this ends,” referring to the Iran war.
Why gas prices could rise
De Haan said there’s also a risk that gas prices could go back up, given the continuing volatility of oil prices.
Oil prices fell by around 10% on Friday after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz was “completely open,” but quickly rose after tensions with the U.S. flared up over the weekend.
Wright told CNN that gas prices have already peaked and will continue to drop.
De Haan said gas prices could jump if Mr. Trump moves forward with threats to attack Iran’s civilian infrastructure. The president on Sunday said the U.S. would “knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge” if Iran does not agree to a peace deal.
“I don’t think the saga between the U.S. and Iran is going to end anytime soon,” De Haan said. “So to say that prices have peaked, I mean, I’d like to agree, but I think that might still be wishful thinking.”
De Haan also expects gas prices to fluctuate during hurricane season, which stretches from June through November.
Gregory Brew, an energy analyst with political risk consulting firm Eurasia Group, also believes we haven’t seen the last of price hikes. Gas prices will “likely rise as demand rises moving into the summer,” he said in a research note on Monday.
Who gets hit hardest
Research from Goldman Sachs shows that higher gas prices disproportionately weigh on the bottom 20% of U.S. income earners. Compared with the top 20%, poorer households spend roughly four times as much of their after-tax income on gas, analysts from the investment bank found.
Other research shows that higher gas prices could also largely wipe out the fatter tax refunds Americans are receiving this year as a result of the “one big, beautiful bill,” the Republican tax cut and spending law passed last year.
Economists from the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research estimate that the average U.S. household will spend an additional $740 on gas this year due to higher oil prices from the Iran war.
By comparison, the average tax refund this year is $3,397, up 11%, or around $350, from 2025, according to IRS data.
Edited by Aimee Picchi
65% of Americans blame Trump for high gas prices, poll finds
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/65-percent-americans-blame-trump-gas-prices-poll/
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