2026-04-21T16:51:11.133Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
撰稿：
艾伦·布莱克
发布时间：2026年4月21日，美国东部时间下午12:51
整整20年前的这个时候，乔治·W·布什的支持率开始崩盘。2006年冬末春初，布什的多数民调支持率首次跌破40%，跌至30%区间，其罪魁祸首一目了然：伊拉克战争。
如今历史似乎正重演在2026年的唐纳德·特朗普总统身上，只需将伊拉克战争替换为伊朗问题即可。
周二上午公布的两项最新民调显示，特朗普的支持率处于35%至36%的区间：路透社-益普索民调为36%，“力量数字-韦拉赛特”民调为35%。此前周末公布的美国全国广播公司（NBC）民调更显示特朗普支持率跌至37%，创下新低。
过去一个月以来，CNN追踪的9项权威民调中有8项显示特朗普的支持率处于30%区间。
唯一的例外是福克斯新闻的民调，其支持率为41%，但即便如此，这也是该民调自2017年以来给出的特朗普最低支持率。
我们不妨将这些数据放在背景中审视。
特朗普的反对率再创新高
并非所有民调都显示特朗普的支持率探底。
部分民调机构的数据显示，特朗普在2017年就职首年，或是在2021年1月6日国会山骚乱后的支持率略低于当前水平。
但在CNN的民调综合平均值中，特朗普的平均反对率已达62%，高于上述两次历史低点时期任何民调机构给出的数据。
2017年，特朗普的单次民调最高反对率分别为：皮尤研究中心的63%、昆尼皮亚克大学的61%、路透社-益普索的60%。1月6日骚乱后，特朗普的反对率在CNN民调中达到62%，昆尼皮亚克民调为61%，《华盛顿邮报-美国广播公司新闻》民调为60%。
如今特朗普的反对率在所有民调中都维持在这一水平，意味着反对特朗普的美国民众比例达到史上最高。
支持率下滑趋势持续稳定
对特朗普而言更棘手的是，他第二任期的支持率下滑趋势异常稳定——且持续走低。
尽管外界普遍认为特朗普在首个总统任期内就相当不受欢迎，但他曾从2017年的低点中恢复，在总统任期的大部分时间里维持在40%上下的支持率，这在当今美国总统中算是较为正常的水平，包括2018年中期选举以及2020年连任竞选期间皆是如此。特朗普首个任期的支持率整体基本平稳。
但在第二任期，这一数字始终缓慢却稳步下滑。
这一趋势早在伊朗问题升温前就已显现，但伊朗问题似乎进一步加剧了特朗普的主要软肋，导致此前从未放弃支持他的群体倒戈。
经济评价再创新低
这一变化的一大原因似乎是民众对其经济施政的评价，伊朗问题及其伴随的油价上涨令该评价跌至历史新低。
具体来看：
- CNN上月末的民调显示，特朗普的经济施政支持率跌至31%，创下历史新低。
- 本月哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）的民调显示，特朗普在经济和通胀议题上的支持率再创新低。
- “力量数字”民调和NBC民调也得出了相同结论。
- 特朗普的通胀政策反对率目前普遍达到70%左右。
通胀长期以来都是特朗普的最薄弱议题，选民常指责他忽视民众对物价上涨的担忧。但民调 increasingly显示，伊朗问题正与通胀共同成为他的失分重灾区。
NBC民调显示，三分之二的美国人不认可特朗普在伊朗问题上的表现，仅略低于不认可其通胀政策处理方式的68%。
此前CNN的民调则显示，67%的受访者不认可特朗普对伊朗问题的处理，经济议题反对率为69%，通胀议题反对率为72%。
他正踏入布什当年的政治境地
支持率趋势当然有可能改变，伊朗问题的解决或许能帮助特朗普挽回局面。
但如果特朗普的支持率稳定在35%上下的区间，他将跻身少数几位身处这一境地的总统。近几十年来，能达到这一支持率区间的总统仅有一位：乔治·W·布什。
根据盖洛普的数据，20年前布什的支持率跌至30%区间时，他是自吉米·卡特以来首位长期维持这一支持率的总统。乔·拜登也曾有相当长一段时间支持率处于30%区间，但普遍集中在38%至39%的较高区间。
如今总统不受欢迎已是常态；事实上，这几乎已成为一种惯例。
但特朗普正摇摇欲坠地踏入相当罕见且危险的政治境地。
The bottom could be falling out in Trump’s polls
2026-04-21T16:51:11.133Z / CNN
Analysis by
Aaron Blake
PUBLISHED Apr 21, 2026, 12:51 PM ET
President George W. Bush speaks at the White House in April 2006.
Win McNamee/Getty Images/File
It was almost exactly this time 20 years ago that the bottom began to fall out on George W. Bush’s approval ratings. And as Bush’s numbers in most polls fell into the 30s for the first time in late winter and early spring, the culprit was clear: the Iraq war.
History could be repeating itself with President Donald Trump in 2026. Just swap Iraq with Iran.
Two new polls released Tuesday morning showed Trump’s approval rating in the mid-30s: 36% in a Reuters-Ipsos poll and 35% in a Strength in Numbers-Verasight poll. They follow an NBC News poll over the weekend that showed Trump hitting a new low of 37%.
Over the past month now, eight of nine quality polls tracked by CNN have shown Trump in the 30s.
The only exception was a Fox News poll pegging Trump at 41%, but even that showed Trump with his worst numbers in its polls since 2017.
Let’s put those numbers in context.
Trump’s disapproval is hitting new highs
Not every poll shows Trump plumbing new depths with his approval rating.
Some pollsters showed him slightly lower in his first year in office in 2017, or after the January 6, 2021, Capitol attack.
But Trump’s 62% average disapproval rating in the CNN Poll of Polls — which averages the quality surveys mentioned above — is higher than just about any pollster indicated in either of those past instances.
Trump’s highest disapproval ratings in individual polls in 2017 were as follows: 63% in a Pew Research Center poll, 61% in a Quinnipiac University poll and 60% in Reuters-Ipsos polls. After January 6, he hit 62% in a CNN poll, 61% in a Quinnipiac poll and 60% in a Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Trump is now averaging those kinds of numbers across all polls, suggesting more Americans than ever are opposed to Trump.
The trendline is consistent
President Donald Trump talks to members of the media aboard Air Force One, on April 17.
Evan Vucci/Reuters
And perhaps more troubling for Trump, the trendline in his second term has been remarkably consistent — consistently down.
While there may have been a general perception that Trump was pretty unpopular in his first term as president, he recovered from the lows of 2017 to spend most of his presidency with an approval rating in the low 40s, which is somewhat normal for a president these days. That included ahead of the 2018 midterm elections and in his 2020 reelection race.
Trump’s approval rating in his first term was, for the most part, pretty flat.
But in his second term, those numbers have trended slowly but steadily downward.
That trend predated the Iran war. But the war also appears to be solidifying some of Trump’s major liabilities, costing him the support of the kinds of people who hadn’t ditched him before.
New lows on the economy
A big reason for that appears to be views of his handling of the economy, which the Iran war — and the rising gas prices that have accompanied it — has sent to new lows.
To wit:
- A CNN poll late last month showed Trump’s economic approval rating hitting a new all-time low of 31%.
- A CBS News poll this month showed Trump hitting new lows on the economy and inflation.
- The Strength in Numbers and NBC News polls showed the same thing.
- Trump’s disapproval on inflation is now routinely around 70%.
Inflation has long been Trump’s worst issue, with voters often saying he has neglected concerns about rising costs. But increasingly, polls show it has some competition for that mantle from the Iran war.
The NBC poll showed two-thirds of Americans disapproved of Trump on the Iran war — just a tick less than the 68% who disliked how he’s handled inflation.
And the earlier CNN poll showed 67% disapproved of Trump’s handling of Iran, compared to 69% for the economy and 72% for inflation.
He’s getting into Bush territory
It’s certainly possible that the trend line could change and that a resolution to the Iran war could help Trump.
But if the president’s approval rating solidifies in the mid-30s, he would be in some pretty rare company. It would be territory mostly inhabited in recent decades by just one man: George W. Bush.
When Bush dropped into the 30s two decades ago, he was the first president to spend a sustained period there since Jimmy Carter, according to Gallup data. Joe Biden, like Bush, spent some significant time in the 30s, but generally in the high 30s.
It’s not unusual for presidents to be unpopular these days; in fact, it’s kind of the norm.
But Trump is teetering into some pretty unusual and dangerous political territory.
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