2026-04-02 12:38:02 UTC / 路透社
作者：露西娅·穆蒂卡尼
2026年4月2日 12:38 UTC 发布，1小时前更新
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2021年9月3日，美国纽约曼哈顿发布就业报告后，第五大道上的招聘会标牌。路透社/安德鲁·凯利
- 内容摘要
- 每周首次申领失业救济金人数减少9000人，至20.2万人
- 持续申领失业救济金人数增加25000人，至184.1万人
- 2月贸易逆差扩大4.9%，至573亿美元
华盛顿，4月2日（路透社）——尽管经济学家警告称，中东地区旷日持久的战争带来了下行风险，但由于裁员人数低迷，美国上周首次申领失业救济金人数意外下降，表明3月劳动力市场状况保持稳定。
美国与以色列针对伊朗的为期一个月的战争，给正努力应对不断变化的贸易政策的企业增添了一层不确定性。这场战争已推动全球油价飙升逾50%。本周美国全国零售汽油均价突破每加仑4美元，为三年多来首次。
路透社伊朗简报通讯将为您提供伊朗战争的最新动态和分析。点击此处订阅。
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经济学家警告称，能源成本上升将放缓消费者支出，增加企业成本，并进一步抑制招聘。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周三誓言将对伊朗发动更猛烈的打击。
“我们预计2026年的就业增长将放缓，失业率将高于我们在这场战争爆发前的预测，”牛津经济研究院首席美国经济学家南希·范登·豪滕表示。“但战争对劳动力市场的影响还需要更多时间才能显现。”
美国劳工部周四表示，在截至3月28日的一周内，州政府失业救济金的首次申领人数经季节调整后下降9000人，至20.2万人。路透社对经济学家的调查显示，他们此前预测当周申领人数为21.2万人。
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今年以来，首次申领失业救济金人数一直在20.1万至23万的区间波动，这与经济学家所说的“低招聘、低裁员”的劳动力市场相符。他们将劳动力市场停滞归咎于特朗普激进的进口关税政策带来的持续不确定性。截至2月的三个月里，私营非农就业岗位平均每月仅增长1.8万个。
经济学家表示，特朗普政府强硬的移民政策导致劳动力供应减少，也阻碍了就业增长。由于首次申领失业救济金的统计周期不在备受关注的3月就业报告的调查范围内，因此这份报告对3月就业报告没有影响。路透社对经济学家的调查显示，非农就业岗位预计将反弹6万个。
2月非农就业岗位减少9.2万个，部分原因是医疗保健工人罢工和恶劣天气。预计3月失业率将维持在4.4%不变。美国劳工统计局将于周五发布3月就业报告。耶稣受难日并非美国联邦假日，但部分金融市场将休市。
申领报告显示，在截至3月21日的一周内，首次申领失业救济金一周后继续申领救济金的人数（这是衡量招聘情况的指标）经季节调整后增加25000人，至184.1万人。
所谓的持续申领失业救济金人数已从去年的高位回落。但在大多数州，失业救济金的领取期限仅为26周，那些用尽救济金资格的人可能拉低了这一数字。本周劳工统计局的数据显示，2月职位空缺数降幅超出预期，招聘人数降至近六年来的最低水平。
美国股市开盘走低。美元兑一篮子货币升值。美国国债收益率上升。
2月进口反弹
贸易政策转变继续引发波动，影响贸易数据。美国商务部经济分析局和人口普查局的另一份报告显示，2月贸易逆差扩大4.9%，至573亿美元。经济学家此前预测贸易逆差将升至610亿美元。
这两个机构仍在弥补去年政府停摆后积压的数据发布工作。美国最高法院2月裁定特朗普的广泛关税无效，这些关税是他根据一项旨在应对国家紧急状态的法律推行的。但特朗普随即实施了一项为期150天的全球关税政策。特朗普为关税辩护称，其对于解决贸易逆差和重振美国工业基础是必要的，不过自2025年1月以来，美国已有10万个工厂岗位流失。
贸易平衡
经济学家预计，由于战争导致的航运限制——已影响到从能源产品到通过霍尔木兹海峡的化肥等各类商品——将减少贸易量。
2月进口增长4.3%，至3721亿美元。商品进口增长5.0%，至2915亿美元。资本品进口增长78亿美元，主要是计算机、计算机配件和半导体的进口增加。这些进口可能与人工智能和数据中心建设有关。
工业用品和材料进口增加31亿美元，主要得益于原油进口。消费品进口增加22亿美元，其中医药制剂进口增长10亿美元。汽车、零部件和发动机进口增加16亿美元。
出口激增4.2%，至创纪录的3148亿美元。商品出口飙升5.9%，至2069亿美元的历史新高。
由于货币黄金和天然气出口增长，工业用品和材料出口增加102亿美元，达到创纪录水平。非石油商品出口也创下历史新高。
2月商品贸易逆差扩大3.0%，至846亿美元。经通胀调整后，商品逆差增加5亿美元，或0.6%，至835亿美元，这可能意味着贸易仍将在第一季度对经济增长构成拖累。
贸易在第四季度拖累了国内生产总值增长。亚特兰大联邦储备银行预计，第一季度国内生产总值将按年率计算增长1.9%。第四季度经济增长率为0.7%。
服务出口增加11亿美元，至创纪录的1079亿美元，其中旅行、其他商业服务、金融服务和知识产权使用收费均有所增长。但运输服务出口有所下降。
受知识产权使用收费推动，服务进口激增13亿美元，至806亿美元的历史新高。
路透社记者露西娅·穆蒂卡尼报道；编辑：千住纪子和安德里亚·里奇
我们的准则：汤森路透信托原则。
US labor market remains stable; trade deficit widens in February
2026-04-02 12:38:02 UTC / Reuters
By Lucia Mutikani
April 2, 2026 12:38 PM UTC Updated 1 hour ago
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Signage for a job fair is seen on 5th Avenue after the release of the jobs report in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., September 3, 2021. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly
- Summary
- Weekly jobless claims fall 9,000 to 202,000
- Continuing claims increase 25,000 to 1.841 million
- Trade deficit widens 4.9% to $57.3 billion in February
WASHINGTON, April 2 (Reuters) – New applications for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week amid low layoffs, suggesting labor market conditions remained calm in March, though economists warned that a prolonged war in the Middle East posed a downside risk.
The month-long U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has added another layer of uncertainty for businesses, which were trying to navigate a forever-shifting trade policy. The war has sent global oil prices soaring more than 50%. The national average retail gasoline price this week topped $4 a gallon for the first time in more than three years.
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Higher energy costs would slow consumer spending and increase costs for business, and further restrain hiring, economists warned. President Donald Trump on Wednesday vowed more aggressive strikes on Iran.
“We expect weaker job growth and a higher unemployment rate for 2026 than we had been forecasting prior to the war,” said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. “But the war’s impact on the labor market will take a bit more time to materialize.”
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 202,000 for the week ended March 28, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 212,000 claims for the latest week.
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Claims have moved in a 201,000-230,000 range this year, consistent with what economists describe as a “low hire, low fire” labor market. They have blamed the labor market stagnation on lingering uncertainty caused by Trump’s aggressive import tariffs. Growth in private nonfarm payrolls has averaged just 18,000 jobs per month in the three months through February.
Reduced labor supply because of the Trump administration’s hard-line immigration policy was also hampering job growth, economists said. The claims report has no bearing on the closely watched employment report for March as it falls outside the survey periods. Nonfarm payrolls likely rebounded by 60,000, a Reuters survey of economists showed.
Payrolls dropped by 92,000 jobs in February partly because of a strike by healthcare workers and harsh weather. The unemployment rate is forecast to have held steady at 4.4% in March. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release March’s employment report on Friday. Good Friday is not a federal holiday in the United States, though some financial markets are closed.
The number of people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, increased 25,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.841 million during the week ended March 21, the claims report showed.
The so-called continuing claims have declined from last year’s lofty levels. But people exhausting their eligibility for benefits, limited to 26 weeks in most states, could be holding the number down. BLS data this week showed a larger-than-expected drop in job openings in February and hiring falling to the lowest level in nearly six years.
U.S. stocks opened lower. The dollar gained versus a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury yields rose.
IMPORTS REBOUND IN FEBRUARY
Trade policy shifts continue to cause volatility impacting trade data. A separate report from the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau showed the trade deficit widened 4.9% to $57.3 billion in February. Economists had forecast the trade deficit rising to $61.0 billion.
The two agencies are still catching up on data releases following last year’s government shutdown. The U.S. Supreme Court in February struck down Trump’s broad tariffs, which he pursued under a law meant for use in national emergencies. But Trump responded by imposing a global tariff for up to 150 days. Trump has defended the tariffs as necessary to address the trade deficit and revive the nation’s industrial base, though 100,000 factory jobs have been lost since January 2025.
Trade balance
Economists expect shipping restrictions due to the war, which have affected goods ranging from energy products to fertilizers through the Strait of Hormuz, to reduce trade volumes.
Imports increased 4.3% to $372.1 billion in February. Goods imports rose 5.0% to $291.5 billion. They were boosted by imports of capital goods, which increased $7.8 billion, mostly reflecting computers, computer accessories and semiconductors. These imports are likely linked to artificial intelligence and the construction of data centers.
Imports of industrial supplies and materials increased $3.1 billion, mostly lifted by crude oil. Consumer goods imports rose $2.2 billion amid a $1.0 billion increase in pharmaceutical preparations. Imports of automotive vehicles, parts and engines increased $1.6 billion.
Exports jumped 4.2% to a record high $314.8 billion. Goods exports soared 5.9% to an all-time high of $206.9 billion.
Exports of industrial supplies and materials increased $10.2 billion to a record high amid rises in monetary gold and natural gas. Non-petroleum goods exports also hit a record high.
The goods trade deficit widened 3.0% to $84.6 billion in February. When adjusted for inflation, the goods deficit increased $0.5 billion, or 0.6%, to $83.5 billion, potentially keeping trade on track to remain a drag on economic growth in the first quarter.
Trade subtracted from gross domestic product growth in the fourth quarter. The Atlanta Federal Reserve is forecasting GDP increasing at a 1.9% annualized rate in the first quarter. The economy grew at a 0.7% pace in the fourth quarter.
Exports of services increased $1.1 billion to a record $107.9 billion amid rises in travel, other business services, financial services and charges for the use of intellectual property. But exports of transport services fell.
Imports of services jumped $1.3 billion to an all-time high of $80.6 billion, boosted by charges for the use of intellectual property.
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Andrea Ricci
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.