2026年4月3日 / 美国东部时间早上6:00 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻（CBS News）
作者：
凯特琳·伊利克 政治记者
凯特琳·伊利克是CBSNews.com驻华盛顿特区的政治记者。她曾供职于《华盛顿考察家报》和《国会山报》，并入选2022年美国国家新闻基金会保罗·米勒华盛顿报道奖学金项目。
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华盛顿讯 —— 特朗普总统仍在放出对古巴采取军事行动的可能性信号，其政府对委内瑞拉和伊朗的干预似乎让他更加有恃无恐。
1月美国军方抓获委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗后，特朗普警告称，他已经将目标对准了古巴。1月3日，在特朗普出席关于此次突袭行动的新闻发布会时，国务卿马可·卢比奥一同在场，他表示古巴政权“应当感到担忧”。
自从伊朗最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊于2月在美国对伊朗的空袭中遇刺身亡后，特朗普对古巴的言论愈发升级。3月16日，特朗普在椭圆形办公室对记者表示，他认为自己将“有幸拿下古巴”。
“以某种形式拿下古巴，没错，”他说，“拿下古巴。我的意思是，不管是我解放它，还是接管它——说实话，我觉得我可以为所欲为。”
“古巴将是下一个，”特朗普周日在空军一号上对记者说道。
身为古巴移民之子的卢比奥，就美国政府可能在古巴的目标直言不讳。他在1月的国会听证会上表示：“我们非常乐见古巴政权更迭”，并称这将对美国“大有裨益”。几周后，卢比奥称古巴必须“彻底改变”。
“我的意思是，古巴的经济运转不灵，政治和政府体制也无力解决问题，”卢比奥3月17日在椭圆形办公室说道，“掌权的那些人不知道该如何解决问题。所以，他们必须换一批新的领导人。”
卢比奥周二在接受福克斯新闻采访时再次强调了经济和政治改革的必要性，表示政府“很快就会发布更多相关消息”。
“如果不改变政治体制，你就无法挽救他们的经济，”他说。
目前，该地区问题专家认为，美国对古巴采取军事行动的威胁不过是虚张声势。他们表示，由于古巴的政治体制，对其采取军事行动需要投入远比委内瑞拉更多的精力。专家们称，通过经济崩溃和其他制裁威胁，迫使古巴逐步进行经济变革，同时迫使古巴总统米格尔·迪亚斯-卡内尔辞职，这是更有可能出现的情况。
“我认为政府内部存在多个派系：如果能让企业获得更多准入机会，尤其是让古巴裔美国人回国投资，那么有些派系会很高兴与现有的大部分古巴政府达成协议，”2001年至2004年担任英国驻古巴大使的保罗·黑尔在接受CBS新闻采访时表示，“而另一个派系，我认为，坚持要求彻底的政权更迭。”
特朗普政府一直试图通过实施石油封锁来扼杀古巴经济。专家表示，这一封锁已让这个由共产党执政的岛国陷入自苏联解体以来最严峻的困境——苏联曾长期为古巴经济提供补贴。
尽管如此，两国政府仍在进行谈判。迪亚斯-卡内尔3月初曾表示，双方“离达成协议仍有很大差距”。古巴副外长卡洛斯·费尔南德斯·德科西奥在接受NBC采访时表示，古巴认为美国的军事行动“不太可能”，但古巴军方已做好应对任何美国侵略的“准备”。科西奥补充道，政权更迭“绝对”不在考虑范围内。
政权更迭可能会是什么样子，这是另一个问题。
战略与国际研究中心美洲项目高级研究员兼副主任克里斯托弗·埃尔南德斯-罗伊表示，“政权管理”是“唯一现实的选择”。
“政权更迭可能比在委内瑞拉更难实现。我也认为，政权管理可能也比在委内瑞拉更难，因为古巴的权力架构已经存在了近70年，且深谙镇压和甄别异见之道。那么，是否存在某个压力节点，让古巴国内某些势力认为改弦更张更好？我认为这有可能。但这会像在委内瑞拉一样容易吗？我不这么认为。我认为这可能更难，”他在接受CBS新闻采访时说道。
“不依托任何胁迫手段的纯外交解决方案，我认为是不可能的，”他补充道。
劳尔·卡斯特罗于2018年将总统职位交给迪亚斯-卡内尔，这是自1959年以来首次有非卡斯特罗家族成员正式担任国家领导人。但迪亚斯-卡内尔被广泛认为是傀儡，卡斯特罗兄弟仍拥有相当大的影响力。
“他并不是该国真正掌握权力的人，但这会被美国视为一场象征性的胜利，”埃尔南德斯-罗伊说道。
目前也不清楚谁会接手管理国家。
曾在特朗普第一任期内领导美国驻哈瓦那大使馆的职业外交官劳伦斯·冈比纳表示，一种可能的情况是出现一位类似德尔西·罗德里格斯的人物，“在很大程度上配合美国并在美国压力下”领导这个岛国。
“第一步将是经济开放，”冈比纳在谈及美国如何向与政权结盟的领导人施压时说道，“我认为明确的信息会是——就像对待罗德里格斯女士那样——你要么按我们说的做，要么别无选择。”
冈比纳表示，“别无选择”背后暗含军事威胁，尽管他认为这类威胁的可能性很小，同时还有可能发起起诉。迈阿密的联邦首席检察官一直在调查针对古巴共产党领导层的潜在指控，包括经济犯罪、毒品犯罪、暴力犯罪和移民相关违规行为。
黑尔表示，一个更大胆的举措可能是引入政权之外的人士，推动宪法改革。
冈比纳称，特朗普并不太关心政治变革，而是将古巴视为美国企业的巨大机遇。
“无论是航运、运输、旅游还是建筑业，我认为特朗普都将古巴视为一片处女地，这里已经沉寂了六十年，美国商界可以进入这里并真正主导市场，”他说。
冈比纳表示，卢比奥可能比特朗普更希望看到古巴发生更广泛的变革，但他补充道，“这一目标的实现有诸多复杂因素”。这位前外交官表示，对该国政治结构进行彻底变革“将需要美国付出巨大努力”。
“重要的是要认识到，特朗普不想搞国家建设，”他说，“如果要按照民主、多元的模式重塑古巴，重建古巴将是一项国家建设工程。而逐步进行经济变革则更容易些。”
在特朗普政府不断加大的压力下，古巴政府宣布将允许居住在海外的古巴国民投资岛内企业。这标志着该国的重大转变——直到最近几年，古巴还严格限制居民创办私营企业。
本周，美国允许一艘俄罗斯油轮抵达古巴。特朗普周日表示，这是一项人道主义姿态。
“他们必须生存下去，”他说。
Why is Trump talking about action on Cuba and what could that look like?
April 3, 2026 / 6:00 AM EDT / CBS News
By
Caitlin Yilek Politics Reporter
Caitlin Yilek is a politics reporter at CBSNews.com, based in Washington, D.C. She previously worked for the Washington Examiner and The Hill, and was a member of the 2022 Paul Miller Washington Reporting Fellowship with the National Press Foundation.
Read Full Bio
Washington — President Trump continues to dangle potential military action against Cuba, appearing to be emboldened by his administration’s interventions in Venezuela and Iran.
After the U.S. military captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January, Mr. Trump warned that he had his sights set on Cuba. Standing alongside Mr. Trump at a news conference about the raid on Jan. 3, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the regime should be “concerned.”
Since Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was assassinated in U.S. strikes on Iran in February, Mr. Trump’s rhetoric against Cuba has escalated. On March 16, Mr. Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he believed he would have “the honor of taking Cuba.”
“Taking Cuba in some form, yeah,” he said. “Taking Cuba. I mean, whether I free it, take it — I think I could do anything I want with it, if you want to know the truth.”
“Cuba’s going to be next,” Mr. Trump told reporters Sunday on Air Force One.
Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, has been more direct about the administration’s possible goals in Cuba, testifying to Congress in January, “we would love to see the regime there change,” saying it would be of “great benefit” to the U.S. Weeks later, Rubio said Cuba has to “change dramatically.”
“I mean Cuba has an economy that doesn’t work and a political and governmental system that can’t fix it,” Rubio said on March 17 in the Oval Office. “The people in charge, they don’t know how to fix it. So, they have to get new people in charge.”
Rubio reiterated the need for economic reform and political reforms on Tuesday, telling Fox News the administration will “have more news on that fairly soon.”
“You cannot fix their economy if you don’t change the system of government,” he said.
For now, experts on the region view the threats of military action in Cuba as bluster, saying it would involve much more effort than in Venezuela because of the political structure. Forcing gradual economic change, along with the resignation of Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel, through the threat of economic collapse and other sanctions is a more likely scenario, they said.
“I think there are a number of factions within the administration where some would be happy to do a deal with most of the existing Cuban government if it gave greater access to businesses, and particularly to Cuban Americans to come back and invest,” Paul Hare, who served as the British ambassador to Cuba from 2001 to 2004, told CBS News. “The other faction, I think, is insisting on a complete regime change.”
The Trump administration has been trying to choke Cuba’s economy by imposing an oil blockade that experts say has pushed the Communist-ruled island to its most dire state since the collapse of the Soviet Union, which heavily subsidized Cuba’s economy.
The two governments have been talking, though Díaz-Canel said earlier in March that they are “still far from an agreement.” The deputy foreign minister of Cuba, Carlos Fernández de Cossío, said in an interview with NBC that his nation does not see U.S. military action as “probable,” but their military is “prepared” for any U.S. aggression. Cossío added that regime change is “absolutely” off the table.
What regime change could look like is another question.
Christopher Hernandez-Roy, a senior fellow and deputy director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said “regime management” is the “only realistic option.”
“Regime change is probably harder to accomplish than in Venezuela. Regime management, I would also argue, is probably harder to accomplish than in Venezuela because you have a power structure that’s been in place for almost 70 years and is expert at repression and expert at sniffing out dissent. So is there a pressure point at which certain elements in Cuba think that it’s better to change course? I think it’s possible. But is it as easy as it is in Venezuela? I don’t think so. I think it’s probably harder,” he told CBS News.
“A purely diplomatic solution that doesn’t rest on any sort of coercion, I don’t think is possible,” he added.
Raúl Castro handed the presidency to Díaz-Canel in 2018, marking the first time since 1959 that a Castro was not formally leading the country. But Díaz-Canel is widely considered a figurehead and the Castros still have considerable influence.
“He’s not the person that actually wields the power in the country, but it would be seen as a symbolic win by the United States,” Hernandez-Roy said.
It’s also unclear who would step in to run the country.
One scenario could be a Delcy Rodríguez figure who would lead the island “very much in concert with and under the pressure of the United States,” according to Lawrence Gumbiner, a career diplomat who led the U.S. Embassy in Havana during Mr. Trump’s first term.
“The first steps would be economic openings,” Gumbiner said of how the U.S. could exert pressure over a regime-aligned leader. “I think the clear message will be like it is with Ms. Rodriguez — that you will do as we say, or else.”
Gumbiner said the “or else” carries the threat of military action, although he believes such a threat is minimal, and potential indictments. The top federal prosecutor in Miami has been exploring potential charges against Communist Party leadership, including economic crimes, drugs, violent crimes and immigration-related violations.
A more ambitious move would involve bringing in someone from outside the regime who would push for constitutional changes, Hare said.
Gumbiner said that Mr. Trump is less concerned about political change, instead seeing the nation as a big opportunity for U.S. businesses.
“Whether it’s shipping, whether it’s transportation, whether it’s tourism, whether it’s construction, I think Trump sees Cuba as kind of virgin territory, where it’s been been kind of dormant for six decades, and where the U.S. business community can come in and really dominate the scene,” he said.
Gumbiner said Rubio likely wants to see broader change in Cuba than Mr. Trump, but he added that “there are a number of reasons why that’s going to be complicated.” The former diplomat said an upheaval to the nation’s political structure “would involve tremendous U.S. effort.”
“It’s important to realize that Trump, he does not want to do nation building,” he said. “Rebuilding Cuba would be a nation building exercise if you want to redo it in a democratic, pluralist model. Whereas, making economic changes piecemeal is easier.”
Facing increasing pressure from the Trump administration, the Cuban government announced that it would allow Cuban nationals living abroad to invest in companies on the island. It marked a notable shift for the country, which had heavily restricted residents from starting private businesses until recent years.
This week, the U.S. allowed a Russian oil tanker to reach Cuba. Mr. Trump indicated Sunday it was a humanitarian gesture.
“They have to survive,” he said.