发布时间：2026年2月16日，美国东部时间上午12:00
分析员：[卡西·亨特]
2小时前
唐纳德·特朗普 亚历山德里娅·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯
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加州州长加文·纽森周五在德国慕尼黑举行的慕尼黑安全会议上发表讲话。
莱萨·约翰森/路透社
慕尼黑，德国——
本周末参加慕尼黑安全会议的许多民主党人[希望成为总统]。但即便其中一人能在2028年赢得白宫，他们可能会发现自己再也无法宣称自20世纪40年代以来每一位美国总统都拥有的头衔：“自由世界的领导者”。
加州州长加文·纽森走上讲台，坚称他的州比总统唐纳德·特朗普更稳固。但他在接受CNN采访时承认，他遇到的领导人认为跨大西洋联盟遭受的损害是不可挽回的。
纽约进步派明星议员亚历山德里娅·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯前来推销左翼民粹主义外交政策，却因一次重大失误而成为头条新闻。
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一些希望在可能的总统竞选中提升外交政策资质的民主党参议员，在与丹麦首相会面时陷入了尴尬的境地，因为一些民主党人试图淡化共和党参议员林赛·格雷厄姆在会议开始时发表的好战言论，格雷厄姆暗示特朗普并未放弃对[格陵兰岛]——丹麦的一个半自治领土——的企图。
计划参加的大多数众议院议员根本没有前来，因为共和党议长迈克·约翰逊取消了国会代表团的行程。
美国国务卿马尔科·卢比奥周六在德国慕尼黑举行的第62届慕尼黑安全会议上发表讲话。
托马斯·肯兹勒/法新社/盖蒂图片社
欧洲思想领袖们仅对国务卿[马尔科·卢比奥]报以短暂的起立鼓掌，他的演讲远比副总统JD·万斯[去年]在同一场合发表的演讲更为和解。但卢比奥在开始行程时告诉美国记者：“旧世界已经消失。”他还离开会议前往斯洛伐克和匈牙利，这两个国家由同情特朗普的强人领导。
德国总理弗里德里希·默茨在会议上的开幕致辞，在这个似乎正迅速成为后美国世纪的时代，凸显了欧洲的新现实。
“欧洲和美国之间出现了分歧，”默茨周五表示。“美国的领导权主张受到了挑战，而且可能已经失去。”
这不仅仅是言语。默茨表示，他与法国就欧洲核威慑进行了“秘密会谈”。这一令人震惊的承认表明，美国是否会为其跨大西洋盟友采取必要行动，已不再有无条件的信任。
“我现在听到的是，即使我们能够修复这些关系，也需要几代人才能让他们感到舒适，”亚利桑那州民主党参议员马克·凯利表示，他是一位可能的总统候选人，在得知特朗普政府试图因他制作的一段视频（视频中他告诉士兵不要服从非法命令）起诉他失败后不久便前往慕尼黑。
衰落的美国
慕尼黑的场景与已故共和党参议员约翰·麦凯恩的鼎盛时期相去甚远，麦凯恩曾是让该会议成为任何希望在领导自由世界中发挥作用的人的关键一站。
美国参议员约翰·麦凯恩于2017年2月17日在德国慕尼黑巴伐利亚霍夫酒店举行的第53届慕尼黑安全会议（MSC）第一天发表讲话。
托马斯·肯兹勒/法新社/盖蒂图片社
会议第一晚仍有一个以他命名的晚宴——他的儿子吉米·麦凯恩今年出席了——他的照片和语录挂在历史悠久的巴伐利亚霍夫酒店一楼的墙上。“我拒绝接受我们世界秩序的消亡，”2017年的语录写道。“我是西方的骄傲而毫不掩饰的信徒。我相信我们必须永远、永远为之奋斗。因为如果我们不这样做，谁会呢？”
试图接过火炬的是特拉华州民主党参议员克里斯·库恩斯，他周五晚上像麦凯恩过去那样，在地下室的Trader Vic’s tiki酒吧喝桃子利口酒，早早结束了行程。
但今年主舞台上没有人以麦凯恩的名义发言，而且相对较少的国会议员参加了德国总理主持的代表团招待会。
通常爱开玩笑的格雷厄姆——麦凯恩的老朋友、坚定的特朗普盟友——似乎情绪低落，他告诉记者，他敦促特朗普在伊朗采取行动，否则将助长俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京和中国国家主席习近平的气焰。
“如果美国不推翻伊朗政权‘那将是一场灾难’，”格雷厄姆在接受《政治报》采访时表示。“这意味着你不能依赖美国。……这意味着西方世界一团糟。他们只会空谈，当需要行动时，他们什么都不做。”
实力与软弱
在慕尼黑的许多民主党当选官员很可能希望在2028年取代特朗普：纽森、奥卡西奥-科尔特斯和凯利，以及前商务部长吉娜·雷蒙多、密歇根州长格雷琴·惠特默和参议员克里斯·墨菲、埃莉萨·斯洛特金和鲁本·加列戈。
[相关文章 慕尼黑，德国——2月13日：代表纽约第14国会选区的亚历山德里娅·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯在第62届慕尼黑安全会议的民粹主义专题小组讨论会上发言。该会议汇集了政府领导人、安全专家和国防部长，正值传统西方政治和军事联盟因美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的政策而面临破裂之际。（肖恩·加卢普/盖蒂图片社）肖恩·加卢普/盖蒂图片社 随着特朗普考验盟友，有2028年野心的民主党人在慕尼黑会议上提供安抚 5分钟阅读]
纽森在形象和身高上都高出一筹，他的身高即使在旧酒店狭窄拥挤的大厅里也很容易被认出。
欧洲领导人“视我们为破坏球”，纽森在会议间隙接受采访时表示。“他们认为我们不可靠，而且很多人认为这是不可挽回的。他们认为我们永远不会回到原来的状态。”
纽森坚称，他相信美国与欧洲的关系仍能修复。尽管他承认自己来慕尼黑是为了学习，“我不是在试图提供外交政策建议，我需要建议”，但他也向欧洲和他的民主党同僚传达了一个信息。
“我说的是，在美国行之有效的是，实力产生实力，”纽森说。他还引用了前总统比尔·克林顿的话：“如果必须选择，美国人民总是会支持强硬但错误的决定，而非软弱但正确的决定。我认为这其中有一个教训。”
国会代表亚历山德里娅·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯周日在德国慕尼黑举行的慕尼黑安全会议上发言。
莱萨·约翰森/路透社
令人谦卑的首秀
进步派明星、伯尼·桑德斯运动的无可争议的继承人亚历山德里娅·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯，在她首次全球舞台考验中表现不佳。
她和她的团队将她在慕尼黑的露面宣传为这位著名但专注于美国的纽约人的全球首秀。《纽约时报》一篇预告她行程的文章标题为“亚历山德里娅·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯踏上更广阔的舞台”。
她参加了周五下午一场乏味的民粹主义政治圆桌会议。但深夜的露面却让头条新闻变得糟糕（《纽约时报》周六的报道称：“奥卡西奥-科尔特斯在慕尼黑提出工人阶级愿景，却有些失误”），并导致她的团队缩短了她在会议中的公开露面和媒体日程。
问题出在：台湾，一个中美关系的关键支点，是世界上两个最大经济体和超级大国关系的核心。主持人问：如果中国入侵，她是否支持派遣美军保卫这个自治岛屿？
“嗯，你知道，我认为这是一个非常长-standing的……我认为这是一个非常长的问题，”她回答。
“我认为我们希望确保我们永远不会走到那一步，”她说。
这一时刻在社交媒体上引发了一些批评。但这也表明，她还没有准备好回答可能成为定义下个世纪地缘政治核心挑战之一的问题。
即使奥卡西奥-科尔特斯表达她想要传达的信息，那也是对二战后建立的世界秩序精英的怀疑。
她此次行程的外交政策顾问（也曾是桑德斯的顾问）周日晚上仍在慕尼黑，而奥卡西奥-科尔特斯早已离开。
唐纳德·特朗普周五抵达佛罗里达州西棕榈滩国际机场时做着手势。
伊丽莎白·弗兰茨/路透社
国内变革，国外质疑
当然，在国内，民主党人的前景正在快速改善。特朗普的支持率下降，民主党有机会在今年的中期选举中重新夺回众议院控制权。
“特朗普将在中期选举中惨败。他知道这一点。我认为，世界正越来越熟悉这个现实，”纽森在慕尼黑告诉CNN。
代表团被取消后，少数民主党众议员独立前往慕尼黑，包括科罗拉多州的杰森·克劳议员。这位陆军退伍军人和国家安全问题的关键发言人，也在领导民主党人试图在今年秋天重新夺回众议院的招募工作。
在会议厅里，他试图向欧洲领导人保证，民主党准备从特朗普手中夺回华盛顿的部分权力。但他也与奥卡西奥-科尔特斯站在一起，警告二战后基于规则的秩序正在让普通民众失望。
“虽然许多机构和规则创造了和平，但我们现在正处于一个许多机构和规则未能为我们大多数社区和国家的工人阶级提供服务的时刻，”克劳周六在新闻发布会上告诉记者。
而欧洲领导人也与美国公众经历了同样的反复无常。在特朗普第一个任期内，他们愿意相信他的当选是一种反常现象。特朗普的连任以及他在第二个任期内在国际舞台上更加大胆的态度，让欧洲相信这并非正常状态的奇怪偏离。
“基于权利和规则的国际秩序正在被摧毁，”默茨在他的演讲中表示。“这个秩序——即使在最好的时候也不完美——不再以这种形式存在。”
唐纳德·特朗普 亚历山德里娅·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯
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Trump’s damage is done. Democrats – and Europe – are struggling to define what’s next
PUBLISHED Feb 16, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Analysis By
[Kasie Hunt]
2 hr ago
Donald Trump AOC
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California Governor Gavin Newsom speaks during the Munich Security Conference in Munich, Germany, on Friday.
Liesa Johannssen/Reuters
Munich, Germany—
Many of the Democrats who came to the Munich Security Conference this weekend [want to be president]. But even if one of them can win the White House in 2028, they may find they can no longer claim the title every American president since the 1940s has borne: leader of the free world.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom went on stage to insist his state is more permanent than President Donald Trump. But he acknowledged in an [interview] with CNN that the leaders he met with believe the damage to the transatlantic alliance is irrevocable.
Progressive star Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York came to pitch a left-wing populist foreign policy but made headlines for a massive stumble instead.
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A number of Democratic senators hoping to burnish their foreign policy credentials ahead of possible presidential bids found themselves in a painfully awkward moment with the Danish prime minister, as some Democrats tried to smooth over pugnacious remarks Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham made at the start of the meeting that suggested Trump has not given up his designs on [Greenland] – a semiautonomous territory of Denmark.
And most members of the House of Representatives who planned to attend didn’t come at all after Republican Speaker Mike Johnson pulled the plug on the congressional delegation.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks during the 62nd Munich Security Conference in Munich, Germany on Saturday.
Thomar Kienzle/AFP/Getty Images
European thought leaders were reduced to offering a brief standing ovation to Secretary of State [Marco Rubio], whose speech was far more conciliatory than the one Vice President JD Vance [delivered] at the same gathering last year. But Rubio had kicked off his trip telling American reporters: “The old world is gone.” He also left the conference to fly onward to Slovakia and Hungary, two countries led by strongmen sympathetic to Trump.
The conference’s opening remarks from [German Chancellor Friedrich Merz] crystallized Europe’s new reality in what seems to be rapidly becoming a post-American century.
“A divide has opened up between Europe and the United States,” Merz said Friday. “The United States’ claim to leadership has been challenged, and possibly lost.”
It’s more than just words. Merz has said he held “confidential talks” with France on European nuclear deterrence. It’s a stunning admission there’s no longer unconditional trust that the US will do what needs to be done for its transatlantic allies.
“What I’m hearing now is, even if we are able to repair these relationships, it’s going to take generations before they feel comfortable,” said Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly, of Arizona, a possible presidential hopeful who traveled to Munich not long after learning the Trump administration had tried and failed to indict him over a video he made telling troops not to obey illegal orders.
A diminished America
The scene in Munich was a far cry from the heyday of the late Republican Sen. John McCain, who was central to making the conference a critical stop for anyone hoping to play a role in leading the free world.
US senator John McCain speaks on the first day of the 53rd Munich Security Conference (MSC) at the Bayerischer Hof hotel in Munich, southern Germany, on February 17, 2017.
Thomas Kienzle/AFP/Getty Images
There’s still a dinner named for him on the first night of the conference – his son Jimmy McCain represented the family there this year – and his photo and quote hang on the wall on the ground level of the historic Bayerischer Hof hotel. “I refuse to accept the demise of our world order,” the 2017 quote reads. “I am a proud, unapologetic believer in the West. I believe we must always, always stand up for it. For if we do not, who will?”
Trying to carry the torch was Democratic Sen. Chris Coons of Delaware, who closed down the basement Trader Vic’s tiki bar Friday night with shots of peach schnapps, as McCain used to.
But there was no one named McCain speaking on the main stage this year, and relatively few members of Congress attended a reception for the delegation hosted by the German chancellor.
The usually jocular Graham, McCain’s old friend turned staunch Trump ally, seemed instead in a dark mood, telling reporters he was urging Trump to take action in Iran or risk emboldening Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
If America doesn’t take down the Iranian regime “it will be a disaster,” Graham said in an interview with Politico. “It means you can’t rely on America. … It means the Western world is full of crap. All they do is talk, and when rubber meets the road, they don’t do a damn thing.”
Strength vs. weakness
A significant percentage of the US Democratic elected officials who were in Munich are likely hoping to replace Trump in 2028: Newsom, Ocasio-Cortez and Kelly, along with former Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, and Sens. Chris Murphy, Elissa Slotkin and Ruben Gallego.
[Related article MUNICH, GERMANY – FEBRUARY 13: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, U.S. representative for New York’s 14th congressional district, speaks at a Townhall panel on populism at the 62nd Munich Security Conference on February 13, 2026 in Munich, Germany. The conference, which brings together government leaders, security experts and defence ministers, is taking place at a time when the traditional western political and military alliance is facing rupture due to the policies of U.S. President Donald Trump. (Photo by Sean Gallup/Getty Images) Sean Gallup/Getty Images As Trump tests alliances, Democrats with 2028 ambitions offer reassurance at Munich conference 5 min read]
Newsom towered figuratively and literally above the field, his height making him easy to spot even in the narrow, packed halls of the old hotel.
European leaders “see us as a wrecking ball,” Newsom said in an interview on the sidelines of the conference. “They see us as unreliable, and a lot of them think it’s irrevocable. They don’t think we’ll ever come back to our original form.”
Newsom insisted he believes the US relationship with Europe can still be repaired. And while he acknowledged he was in Munich to learn, saying, “I’m not trying to give foreign policy advice, I need it,” he also had a message for both Europe and his fellow Democrats.
“I’m saying what works in the United States is strength begets strength,” Newsom said. He also quoted former President Bill Clinton, adding: “Given the choice, the American people will always support strong and wrong versus weak and right. And I think there’s a lesson to that.”
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez speaks during the Munich Security Conference in Munich, Germany, on Sunday.
Liesa Johannssen/Reuters
A humbling debut
Far from her own strengths, the progressive star and arguable heiress to Bernie Sanders’ movement, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, struggled in her first major test on the world stage.
She and her team had billed her appearance in Munich as something of a global debut for the famous but US-focused New Yorker. A piece in The New York Times previewing her trip was headlined, “Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Steps Onto a Wider Stage.”
She participated in a forgettable roundtable on populist politics Friday afternoon. But a late-night appearance turned the headlines sour (Saturday’s New York Times story read: “Ocasio-Cortez Offers a Working-Class Vision in Munich, With Some Stumbles”) and led her team to curtail her public and media schedule at the conference.
The issue: Taiwan, a fulcrum of US foreign policy that’s definitional for the relationship between the world’s two largest economies and superpowers. The question, from the moderator: Would she support sending US troops to defend the self-governing island were China to invade?
“Um, you know, I think that this is such a, you know, I think that this is a um — this is, of course, a, um, very long-standing, um, policy of the United States,” she responded.
“And I think what we are hoping for is that we want to make sure that we never get to that point,” she said.
The moment generated some criticism on social media. But it also showed she was unprepared to answer what is likely to become one of the central foreign policy challenges that will define the next century in geopolitics.
Even when Ocasio-Cortez was on the message she wanted to deliver, it was one skeptical of the elites who now sit atop the world order created in the wake of World War II.
Ocasio-Cortez’s foreign policy adviser on the trip, who also previously advised Sanders, was still in Munich on Sunday night while Ocasio-Cortez was long gone.
President Donald Trump gestures as he arrives at Palm Beach International Airport in West Palm Beach, Florida, on Friday.
Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters
Change at home. Skepticism abroad
Back home, of course, Democrats’ prospects have been improving fast. Trump’s approval rating has dropped, and Democrats have an opportunity to win back control of the House in this year’s midterm elections.
“Trump’s going to get shellacked in the midterms. He knows that. The world is becoming, I think, more and more familiar with that reality,” Newsom told CNN in Munich.
A handful of Democratic House members made the effort to travel to the conference independently after the delegation was canceled, including Rep. Jason Crow of Colorado. The Army veteran and key voice on national security issues is also leading recruitment for Democrats trying to take back the House this fall.
In the conference halls, he was trying to reassure European leaders Democrats are poised to wrest at least some power in Washington back from Trump. But he also stood with Ocasio-Cortez to warn the post-World War II rules-based order was leaving average people behind.
“While many of those institutions and rules created peace, we now stand in a moment where many of them have failed to deliver for the working-class people in most of our communities and countries,” Crow told reporters at a press conference Saturday.
And Europe’s leaders have endured the same whiplash as the American public, spending the first Trump term willing to believe his election was an aberration. Trump’s reelection and his emboldened attitude on the world stage in his second term has Europe convinced this isn’t a strange departure from normal.
“The international order based on rights and rules is in the process of being destroyed,” Merz said in his speech. “This order – imperfect even its best times – no longer exists in this form.”
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