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特朗普相信是中国促使伊朗重返谈判桌

2026年4月8日 11:13 / 联合早报

特朗普4月7日傍晚贴文说，已收到伊朗提出的10点建议，他认为这是一个可行的谈判基础。 （路透社）

美国总统特朗普接受法新社采访时说，他相信是中国促使伊朗重返谈判桌，暂时与美国和以色列停火。

美国总统特朗普星期二（4月7日）傍晚6时32分（新加坡时间8日早上6时32分）在社交媒体宣布，他已同意暂停对伊朗的轰炸和攻击两周。

特朗普说：“这将是一项双向停火！”他还说，已收到伊朗提出的10点建议，并认为这是一个可行的谈判基础。

伊朗外长阿拉格齐8日凌晨代表伊朗最高国家安全委员会发表声明说，德黑兰将停止反击，并确保霍尔木兹海峡的安全通行。而伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书处说，伊朗将在巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡与美国展开为期两周的政治谈判，“以确认在地面作战中取得的胜利成果”。

特朗普此前限令伊朗在美东时间7日晚8时之前达成协议或开放运输要道霍尔木兹海峡，否则“一整个文明将在今晚消亡，永远也无法恢复。”

特朗普4月7日傍晚贴文说，已收到伊朗提出的10点建议，他认为这是一个可行的谈判基础。 （路透社）

美国总统特朗普接受法新社采访时说，他相信是中国促使伊朗重返谈判桌，暂时与美国和以色列停火。

美国总统特朗普星期二（4月7日）傍晚6时32分（新加坡时间8日早上6时32分）在社交媒体宣布，他已同意暂停对伊朗的轰炸和攻击两周。

特朗普说：“这将是一项双向停火！”他还说，已收到伊朗提出的10点建议，并认为这是一个可行的谈判基础。

伊朗外长阿拉格齐8日凌晨代表伊朗最高国家安全委员会发表声明说，德黑兰将停止反击，并确保霍尔木兹海峡的安全通行。而伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书处说，伊朗将在巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡与美国展开为期两周的政治谈判，“以确认在地面作战中取得的胜利成果”。

特朗普此前限令伊朗在美东时间7日晚8时之前达成协议或开放运输要道霍尔木兹海峡，否则“一整个文明将在今晚消亡，永远也无法恢复。”

Trump-backed Republican pads GOP’s fragile House majority by winning showdown for MTG’s former seat

April 7, 2026 8:26pm EDT / Fox News

The seat was vacated when Marjorie Taylor Greene quit Congress after a public falling out with Trump

By Paul Steinhauser Fox News

GOP candidate Clay Fuller, who won Tuesday’s special congressional election in northwest Georgia, tells Fox News Digital President Trump was ‘the key factor in us winning.’

RINGGOLD, GA — Republican congressional candidate Clay Fuller just gave House Speaker Mike Johnson a little bit of breathing room as the GOP clings to a razor-thin majority in Congress.

Fuller, who was backed by President Donald Trump, on Tuesday defeated Democrat Shawn Harris in a special election to fill the empty U.S. House seat in Georgia’s solidly red 14th Congressional District, the Associated Press reported.

“He was the difference maker,” Fuller told Fox News Digital following his victory, as he pointed to Trump. “He was the key factor in us winning…. Our results prove that President Trump means a ton to Georgia-14.”

The seat was left vacant when MAGA firebrand Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene stepped down at the beginning of January. Greene quit Congress with a year left in her term, after a bitter falling out with Trump.

The special election came as Republicans cling to a razor-thin 218–214 majority in the House. The GOP was under the gun to make sure the Democrats didn’t pull off an upset in the special election, in a district in northwest Georgia that Trump carried by a whopping 37 points in his 2024 presidential victory.

PRIMARY PAUSE, POLITICAL FIRESTORM: HIGH-STAKES ELECTIONS THIS MONTH TAKE CENTER STAGE

Republican congressional candidate Clay Fuller, left, speaks next to President Donald Trump, during a visit to the Coosa Steel Corporation in Rome, Georgia, Feb. 19, 2026.(Kevin Lamarque/Reuters)

“It’s extremely crucial, and we need the reinforcements,” Fuller told Fox News Digital on the eve of the runoff election.

Fuller, a local district attorney and a lieutenant colonel in the Air National Guard who’s served in the Air Force since 2009, added, “I think the voters in Georgia 14 understand that, and they’re looking forward to sending a MAGA America first fighter up on Capitol Hill to support that agenda.”

TRUMP HITS CAMPAIGN TRAIL IN KEY BATTLEGROUND AS RACE TO REPLACE MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE HEATS UP

Asked if he was concerned that MAGA supporters would sit out what was expected to be a low-turnout election since the president is not on the ballot, Fuller said Trump voters “would crawl through glass to make sure they have a representative up there that fights for them and fights for President Trump.”

Harris, a cattle farmer who spent four decades in the military and retired as an Army brigadier general, needed the support of crossover Republicans in order to pull off an upset.

https://www.foxnews.com/video/6392653081112

“I am a Democrat, but I’m not tied to the party,” Harris highlighted as he spoke with Fox News Digital on Monday. And Harris argued, “My opponent, Clay, cannot say that. He actually sold his soul to President Trump.”

Harris narrowly edged Fuller amid a field of 17 candidates, including 12 Republicans, in the first round of voting in early March. Since no candidate topped 50%, Harris and Fuller advanced to Tuesday’s runoff.

HEAD HERE FOR THE LATEST FOX NEWS REPORTING FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL

The congressional seat — which stretches from Atlanta’s outer suburbs to the state’s northwest borders with Alabama and Tennessee — was left vacant when Greene quit Congress with a year left in her term, after a very public falling out with Trump mostly over her push to release the Jeffrey Epstein files.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., speaks during a news conference with 10 of the alleged victims of disgraced financier and sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein outside the U.S. Capitol on Sept. 3, 2025, in Washington, D.C.(Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

While Greene remains popular among Republicans in the district, Fuller said the voters he talked with on the campaign trail were “focused on the fights of the future, not anything that had happened in the past.”

Asked if he spoke with Greene, Fuller said he “reached out to Rep. Greene, had conversations with her and got advice on the district, and I’ll keep those conversations confidential.”

Harris, who as a first-time candidate lost to Greene by nearly 29 points in her 2024 re-election, emphasized that he wasn’t “running against Marjorie Taylor Greene anymore,” and that his name “carries more weight than any other name in this district.”

With the vast majority of votes tallied, Harris trailed Fuller by roughly 12 points, which was a significant improvement over his 2024 performance against Greene.

Democrats touted their over performance in the special election runoff.

“Tonight, in the deepest-red congressional district in Georgia – and despite more than $1.5 million in spending by Republicans to defend this Trump +37 seat – Democrat Shawn Harris notched a jaw-dropping more than 20-point over performance in Marjorie Taylor Greene’s backyard,” Democratic Party of Georgia Chair Charlie Bailey said in a statement.

And Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin highlighted that Shawn Harris ran a fearless campaign in the reddest district in all of Georgia, delivering a double-digit overperformance.”

Martin argued, “Enthusiasm for Democrats is growing everywhere. We’re closing the gap and Republicans are absolutely terrified.”

Democrats have repeatedly showcased their slew of special election victories and over performances in the nearly 15 months since Trump returned to the White House.

https://www.foxnews.com/video/6392721808112

But Fuller pushed back on the Democrats’ messaging.

“They lost. They’ve got to call me congressman, and they poured in millions of dollars, just lit millions of dollars on fire, and still got crushed,” he argued, in his Fox News Digital interview.

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

Fuller doesn’t get much time to enjoy his victory.

He’ll be running in next month’s primary in Georgia as aims to be the party’s nominee in the district in November, when he’ll seek a full two-year term in Congress.

And Harris said he would be running again as well in the midterms.

In a statement, Harris emphasized, “This wasn’t the result we wanted, but the message is clear — people here are ready for leadership that puts them first. The fight continues. On to November!”

Paul Steinhauser is a politics reporter based in the swing state of New Hampshire. He covers the campaign trail from coast to coast.

Republican Clay Fuller projected to win Georgia runoff to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene in House, helping GOP’s narrow majority

April 7, 2026 8:49 PM EDT / CBS News

Washington — Republican Clay Fuller won Tuesday’s runoff election to replace former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene in Georgia’s 14th Congressional District, CBS News projects, padding the House GOP’s razor-thin margin by an additional vote.

Fuller beat Democrat Shawn Harris in the northwest Georgia district after the two advanced from a crowded field of candidates in a special election on March 10.

A candidate had to receive a majority of the vote to avoid a runoff. Harris, a retired Army general, pulled in more votes than Fuller, a district attorney, in last month’s contest as Republicans split their votes among several candidates. Though it injected a jolt of optimism into the possibility that Democrats could pull off a major upset, Harris faced long odds in a one-on-one matchup in the reliably conservative district.

The outcome gives House Republicans — who had a 217 to 214 majority leading up to Fuller’s victory — another seat as any one defection has threatened to derail their legislative agenda in recent months. Another seat is held by an independent, who switched his party affiliation in March, but still caucuses with Republicans. Fuller’s win bumps up Republicans’ margin to two votes.

Fuller, who had President Trump’s backing, will serve out the remainder of Greene’s two-year term, which ends in January 2027.

Greene resigned in January after a falling-out with Mr. Trump.

https://www.cbsnews.com/atlanta/video/clay-fuller-wins-georgias-14th-district-replaces-marjorie-taylor-greene/

4月2日，美国贸易代表格里尔在白宫外接受媒体采访。 （彭博社）

美国贸易代表格里尔星期二（4月7日）称，美国与中国的经济和贸易关系保持稳定，美国总统特朗普将在下个月与中国国家主席习近平会晤时，致力于延续这一态势。

据路透社报道，格里尔在哈德逊研究所主办的一场活动上说：“我们并不寻求与中国发生大规模对抗或类似情况。”

格里尔说，美中已进入一种稳定状态，美国能获得中国的稀土资源，并对中国商品维持较高关税。

他说：“谈到总统此次会晤的预期，我们将致力于维持这种稳定，并确保能继续从中国获得稀土。”

特朗普此前宣布，将于5月14日至15日访问中国，为因伊朗军事行动推迟的美中元首会晤设定新日期。

延伸阅读

中美元首会晤前夕 美国罕见向中国移交涉走私贩毒逃犯 分析：特朗普习近平会晤延后 中美或累积更多摩擦

白宫此前单方面向媒体透露，特朗普将在3月31日至4月2日访问中国。但特朗普3月16日在白宫告诉媒体，他已要求中国把美中元首会晤推迟约一个月，让他集中精力处理对伊战争。

彭博社上周引述战略资源研究机构Trivium China地缘政治分析师梅兹尔认为，自去年10月釜山会晤以来，中美关系的稳定出乎预料，但“两国领导人越长时间不对话，贸易战重回最黑暗时期的风险就越大。”

以色列总理内坦亚胡办公室4月8日说，美国已告知以色列，将在与伊朗的谈判中致力于实现美以的共同目标。 （法新社档案照片）

以色列总理内坦亚胡办公室说，以色列支持美国总统特朗普暂停对伊朗空袭两周的决定，前提是伊朗开放霍尔木兹海峡并停止袭击。

路透社报道，内坦亚胡办公室星期三（4月8日）发表声明说，美国已告知以色列，将在与伊朗的谈判中致力于实现美以的共同目标。以色列支持美国为确保伊朗不再构成核威胁、导弹威胁或“恐怖威胁”所做的努力。

声明也说，为期两周的停火安排不包括黎巴嫩。

以色列新闻网YNET早前引述以色列安全部门消息说，与伊朗的停火协议将涵盖黎巴嫩。

伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书处8日发布消息，伊朗将在巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡与美国展开为期两周的政治谈判，“以确认在地面作战中取得的胜利成果”。

以色列总理内坦亚胡办公室4月8日说，美国已告知以色列，将在与伊朗的谈判中致力于实现美以的共同目标。 （法新社档案照片）

以色列总理内坦亚胡办公室说，以色列支持美国总统特朗普暂停对伊朗空袭两周的决定，前提是伊朗开放霍尔木兹海峡并停止袭击。

路透社报道，内坦亚胡办公室星期三（4月8日）发表声明说，美国已告知以色列，将在与伊朗的谈判中致力于实现美以的共同目标。以色列支持美国为确保伊朗不再构成核威胁、导弹威胁或“恐怖威胁”所做的努力。

声明也说，为期两周的停火安排不包括黎巴嫩。

以色列新闻网YNET早前引述以色列安全部门消息说，与伊朗的停火协议将涵盖黎巴嫩。

伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书处8日发布消息，伊朗将在巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡与美国展开为期两周的政治谈判，“以确认在地面作战中取得的胜利成果”。

New DHS chief Markwayne Mullin visits town devastated by Hurricane Helene, promises reforms to FEMA

April 7, 2026 / 9:32 PM EDT / CBS News

Chimney Rock, North Carolina — From the well-worn interior of a fire department in Western North Carolina, Markwayne Mullin reassured local officials that as homeland security secretary, he intends to reform the Federal Emergency Management Agency — not eliminate it.

Mullin, on his first official visit in his new role, traveled to Chimney Rock, a tiny mountain town that was devastated by Hurricane Helene in September 2024 after 22.5 inches of rain devoured roughly half of all homes along the Rocky Broad River, carrying 1.2 million tons of sediment and wreckage to nearby Lake Lure — creating a 15 foot deep debris field. The lake will reopen in two weeks.

It was this backdrop where Mullin told officials that his goal is to shift FEMA’s role away from being a primary responder and toward funding state and local governments. “We shouldn’t be the first ones in and the last ones out,” Mullin said. “The state is much more equipped… but we can be there to get them past the first heavy lift.”

It took several lifts to dig out Chimney Rock — a process local, state and federal officials told Mullin is still ongoing, 18 months later — challenged by some uniquely stubborn red tape afflicting the mountainous region that was not built to withstand major hurricanes. The discussion, led by GOP Sen. Ted Budd, brought together emergency responders, elected leaders and FEMA officials who talked about the scale of devastation in tens of millions of dollars and in years.

Asked about delays and a backlog of FEMA projects, Mullin said the agency is working to accelerate approvals before the fast approaching hurricane season on June 1. “We’re trying to push this stuff forward as fast as possible … so we aren’t entering hurricane season behind,” he said, noting FEMA is still managing 22 open and pending major disasters nationwide.

The new secretary bounced a small, pink rubber ball — his signature quirk — as he shook hands with locals and acknowledged frustration from residents who feel forgotten, pointing to recent funding approvals as progress. His visit came one day after FEMA announced $26 million to buy out 75 homes in North Carolina — a move aimed at helping families relocate out of high-risk flood zones and clearing the way for long-term mitigation.

Still, the fix comes as thousands of cases remain unresolved. “We got the first 75 out, but we’re looking at the other ones,” he said, referring to housing assistance. “We’re honestly… working from the easiest to the hardest ones. We got to get the money flowing at some point. That’s part of the backlog.”

DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin visits the fire department in Chimney Rock, North Carolina. Nicole Sganga

Officials like Budd applauded Mullin’s decision to rescind a memo from DHS Secretary Kristi Noem last summer requiring her office’s approval on all DHS contracts and grants over $100,000 — including FEMA disaster relief. “That’s leadership,” Budd offered pointedly.

In June 2025, President Trump told reporters he wanted to “wean” states off FEMA assistance after the 2025 hurricane season, and had at one point floated closing the disaster relief agency. In response to questions about the future of FEMA, Mullin pushed back on suggestions the agency could be shuttered for good.

“I think the president was talking about reforming FEMA,” he said. “We want to make sure we get the dollar closer to the state… because when you’re dealing with federal contracts… the price seems to double because of the amount of bureaucracy.”

Mullin also confirmed the administration is working on naming a permanent FEMA administrator, though he declined to provide specifics. “We may have identified someone, but it’s a long process,” he said, adding that Senate confirmation remains a significant hurdle.

A thousand-year storm

Local leaders and first responders described widespread destruction from Helene’s historic rainfall and flooding as a “thousand-year storm” that wiped out roads, severed homes, damaged utilities and left some communities still struggling to restore basic services.

Several pointed to the strain on smaller, rural counties that must front the costs for recovery projects and wait for months on federal reimbursement — often with limited staff and resources. Officials bemoaned overlapping rules, slow approvals and rigid policies that have complicated rebuilding efforts while burying survivors in paperwork.

Mullin indicated he was open to trying to streamline processes, reduce backlogs and give more decision-making flexibility to local leaders. But for residents of western North Carolina who are still waiting for aid, Mullin struck a cautious tone.

“We’re going to do everything we can possibly do to make it happen,” he said. “But the federal government isn’t going to take care of everybody’s problems … we’re there to help ease the pain.”

During the visit, Mullin also promised that FEMA workers would be paid for their hours worked during the first six weeks of the shutdown by Friday, with all pay checks reaching their bank accounts by Monday, the latest.

A house along the Rocky Broad River in Chimney Rock, North Carolina illustrates storm damage 18 months following Hurricane Helene. Nicole Sganga

“This is my hometown”

Eighteen months after Helene, trailers are still visible along the banks of the Rocky Broad River. Debris falls from homes spliced open by the floodwaters.

The Chimney Rock Fire Department served as both refuge and command post when Helene tore through western North Carolina, bringing mudslides and flash flooding that ripped apart homes and washed away roads. Chimney Rock State Park closed for nine months as a result of the hurricane.

Inside the fire station, Fire Chief Chris Melton, gestured toward a torn-up American flag hanging in the back of the hall.

“I haven’t brought that flag out until yesterday,” Melton said, his voice catching. “It was pulled out of the river as we was doing some rescues.” As he wiped away a tear, he could offer only, “This is my hometown.”

Mullin listened, and then pointed toward the flag. “I think it should be framed.” He asked Melton, “Would you allow me to pay for that frame?” The chief nodded. Mullin directed one of the FEMA employees to send him the bill directly.

A torn-up American flag in Chimney Rock, North Carolina’s fire station. Nicole Sganga

For the new secretary, the test will be whether the symbolic gestures and promises made in rooms like this translate into faster help before hurricane season begins.

Hours earlier, traversed the banks of the Broad River with local leaders, jumping over boulders and surveying what residents here still refer to as “the town that washed away” — where floodwaters piled debris, ripped apart mountain cottages and reshaped the now winding and jagged landscape.

Along the river, residents at River Watch Bar and Grille watched the spectacle, remarking that they couldn’t remember the last time they saw this many people crowded along its banks. The parking lots in the once tourist-lined street overflowed with black SUVs and white vans, as Mullin shuffled into a nearby gift shop advertising “homemade fudge.”

“I guess this is what happens when the government comes to town,” one remarked.

Another chuckled, calling it a “dog and pony show.”

The bartender smiled, noting the kitchen had been slammed for days, ever since Interstate-64 reopened traffic from nearby Asheville into the town last week. “But hey, we’re not mad at it,” she said. “We’re just happy that everybody is finally here.”

特朗普为什么宣布停火？

2026年4月8日 / 联合早报 吴汉钧

特朗普为什么宣布停火？

美国总统特朗普在社媒宣布停火两周（左），随后也贴出伊朗的停火声明。 （社媒截图）

就在美国总统特朗普发出的“最最最后通牒”到期前约10小时，新闻室里还在讨论：美国和伊朗会不会大打出手，还是最终偃旗息鼓。新加坡时间星期三清晨7时前，特朗普却在社交媒体上宣布，美伊已同意达成为期两周的停火安排。前一晚那句“让伊朗文明在一夜间覆灭”的威胁，终究没有成真。

是什么原因，让双方在剑拔弩张之际选择踩刹车？

这场停火，与其说是“胜利宣言”，不如说是多重现实压力下的战略妥协。

首先，这是对“战争不可承受之重”的理性回归。尽管特朗普宣称已达成既定军事目标，但现实远比话语更严峻：区域内的军事折损、国际法专家对战争罪的预警，以及国内舆论持续施压，都让华盛顿意识到，一旦冲突进一步波及民用基础设施，代价将极为高昂，后果难以收拾。

更关键的是，特朗普显然误判了伊朗的政治生态和社会韧性。他以为只要打掉伊朗政权和革命卫队的高层，就能触发大规模街头运动，推翻神权体制；却忽略了在美以密集炮火之下，伊朗社会会本能地回到民族主义立场。

美国军方内部的道德压力也在累积。数据显示，美军内部申请“良心拒服兵役”（Conscientious Objection）的人数在2026年3月激增1000％，增幅甚至超过伊拉克与阿富汗战争最激烈时期，反映基层官兵对这场战争正当性的质疑。

美国非营利组织“良知与战争中心”（Center on Conscience & War）理事长普莱斯纳向当地媒体说：“我还没接过任何一通电话是说，‘我害怕在一场自己不认同的战争中死去。’他们真正害怕的，是在一场自己不认同的战争中杀害别人。”

这类“良心抗命”迹象，很可能已从基层蔓延至军方高层。战争部长赫格塞斯在3月至4月间对军中高层进行大规模人事调整，被外界解读为试图处理军队内对战争存有道德与专业异议的问题。

其次，是冷冰冰的“经济账”。伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡，掐住全球能源运输要道。布伦特原油价格在最后通牒前一度逼近每桶110美元，油价飙升已开始反噬全球经济。

对特朗普而言，要在确保霍尔木兹海峡能源通道基本安全的前提下，与伊朗开启谈判，是稳定国内政治局势与全球市场的必要步骤。

战事与能源危机若持续拖延，将越来越逼近今年11月美国中期选举，对共和党选情构成直接压力，特朗普本人也有可能提前陷入“跛脚鸭”处境。

民调显示，约六成美国民众对特朗普处理战争的方式表示不满。共和党高层极度担心，这场昂贵的战争最终会导致众议院甚至参议院控制权旁落。

财政压力同样惊人。战争开打一个多月，特朗普政府就向国会提出2027财年1.5万亿美元（约1.93万亿新元）的国防预算申请，比本财年的1万亿美元高出五成，是二战以来年度国防预算最大涨幅之一。仗还没打完，就要选民为未来多年高额军费埋单，这在政治上难以长期承受。

第三，大国博弈的制衡作用也不容忽视。在最后通牒到期前的联合国安理会表决中，中国与俄罗斯联手否决了由巴林提案、旨在保障霍尔木兹海峡航行安全的决议草案，明确反对国际社会被美国及其盟友“绑架”，集体卷入对伊军事行动。

在缺乏安理会授权的情况下，美国在霍尔木兹海峡的军事选项进一步收窄，继续升级冲突的政治与法律风险大幅增加。

伊朗提出的“十点建议”最终能被华盛顿视为可供谈判的基础，说明双方都已意识到，在全面战争的悬崖边，外交几乎是唯一可行的出路。再打下去，对两国而言都是高成本、低回报的消耗。

然而，两周停火转瞬即逝。这段时间究竟会成为通往更持久和平的坚实台阶，还是双方重整军力、调整部署的喘息窗口，仍有待观察。

中东和平的曙光已隐约可见，但战争阴霾尚未散去。

特朗普为什么宣布停火？

2026年4月8日 11:57 / 联合早报

美国总统特朗普在社媒宣布停火两周（左），随后也贴出伊朗的停火声明。 （社媒截图）

就在美国总统特朗普发出的“最最最后通牒”到期前约10小时，新闻室里还在讨论：美国和伊朗会不会大打出手，还是最终偃旗息鼓。新加坡时间星期三清晨7时前，特朗普却在社交媒体上宣布，美伊已同意达成为期两周的停火安排。前一晚那句“让伊朗文明在一夜间覆灭”的威胁，终究没有成真。

是什么原因，让双方在剑拔弩张之际选择踩刹车？

这场停火，与其说是“胜利宣言”，不如说是多重现实压力下的战略妥协。

首先，这是对“战争不可承受之重”的理性回归。尽管特朗普宣称已达成既定军事目标，但现实远比话语更严峻：区域内的军事折损、国际法专家对战争罪的预警，以及国内舆论持续施压，都让华盛顿意识到，一旦冲突进一步波及民用基础设施，代价将极为高昂，后果难以收拾。

更关键的是，特朗普显然误判了伊朗的政治生态和社会韧性。他以为只要打掉伊朗政权和革命卫队的高层，就能触发大规模街头运动，推翻神权体制；却忽略了在美以密集炮火之下，伊朗社会会本能地回到民族主义立场。

美国军方内部的道德压力也在累积。数据显示，美军内部申请“良心拒服兵役”（Conscientious Objection）的人数在2026年3月激增1000％，增幅甚至超过伊拉克与阿富汗战争最激烈时期，反映基层官兵对这场战争正当性的质疑。

美国非营利组织“良知与战争中心”（Center on Conscience & War）理事长普莱斯纳向当地媒体说：“我还没接过任何一通电话是说，‘我害怕在一场自己不认同的战争中死去。’他们真正害怕的，是在一场自己不认同的战争中杀害别人。”

这类“良心抗命”迹象，很可能已从基层蔓延至军方高层。战争部长赫格塞斯在3月至4月间对军中高层进行大规模人事调整，被外界解读为试图处理军队内对战争存有道德与专业异议的问题。

其次，是冷冰冰的“经济账”。伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡，掐住全球能源运输要道。布伦特原油价格在最后通牒前一度逼近每桶110美元，油价飙升已开始反噬全球经济。

对特朗普而言，要在确保霍尔木兹海峡能源通道基本安全的前提下，与伊朗开启谈判，是稳定国内政治局势与全球市场的必要步骤。

战事与能源危机若持续拖延，将越来越逼近今年11月美国中期选举，对共和党选情构成直接压力，特朗普本人也有可能提前陷入“跛脚鸭”处境。

民调显示，约六成美国民众对特朗普处理战争的方式表示不满。共和党高层极度担心，这场昂贵的战争最终会导致众议院甚至参议院控制权旁落。

财政压力同样惊人。战争开打一个多月，特朗普政府就向国会提出2027财年1.5万亿美元（约1.93万亿新元）的国防预算申请，比本财年的1万亿美元高出五成，是二战以来年度国防预算最大涨幅之一。仗还没打完，就要选民为未来多年高额军费埋单，这在政治上难以长期承受。

第三，大国博弈的制衡作用也不容忽视。在最后通牒到期前的联合国安理会表决中，中国与俄罗斯联手否决了由巴林提案、旨在保障霍尔木兹海峡航行安全的决议草案，明确反对国际社会被美国及其盟友“绑架”，集体卷入对伊军事行动。

在缺乏安理会授权的情况下，美国在霍尔木兹海峡的军事选项进一步收窄，继续升级冲突的政治与法律风险大幅增加。

伊朗提出的“十点建议”最终能被华盛顿视为可供谈判的基础，说明双方都已意识到，在全面战争的悬崖边，外交几乎是唯一可行的出路。再打下去，对两国而言都是高成本、低回报的消耗。

然而，两周停火转瞬即逝。这段时间究竟会成为通往更持久和平的坚实台阶，还是双方重整军力、调整部署的喘息窗口，仍有待观察。

中东和平的曙光已隐约可见，但战争阴霾尚未散去。