分析：斯蒂芬·科林森
更新于 2026年1月22日，美国东部时间上午8:18
发布于 2026年1月21日，美国东部时间晚上8:07
唐纳德·特朗普总统于2026年1月21日抵达苏黎世机场后走向“海军陆战队一号”直升机。
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唐纳德·特朗普 北约 关税
唐纳德·特朗普总统在格陵兰岛问题上的退缩，标志着一位现代总统在世界舞台上经历的最反复无常的事件之一达到了顶峰。
周三几个小时内，特朗普从要求对这个半自治丹麦领土拥有“权利、所有权和主权”，突然转变为庆祝一份关于其未来的“无限”、“永久”框架协议。
这一“突破”似乎取决于北约额外驻军以确保北极安全——这其实是他本周混乱局势发生前就能通过正常途径获得的，只要他开口请求。
总统周四告诉福克斯商业新闻频道，正在谈判的框架协议将给予美国“完全准入权”，对格陵兰岛没有时间限制，特别是用于他提议的“金色穹顶”导弹防御系统。这可能与华盛顿现有的与丹麦条约实质上并无太大不同。但关键在于，一份更新的协议能给总统一个可以载入史册的“遗产成就”。
如果这一切的代价是与欧洲的关系严重受损，以及人们对他对北约防御承诺忠诚度的新质疑，那么对一个专注于个人目标的总统而言，这可能只是“做生意”的成本。
无论如何粉饰太平，都没有迹象表明特朗普会从达沃斯世界经济论坛带回可以插上星条旗的广袤冰原的“地契”。北约秘书长马克·吕特在福克斯新闻上说，在与总统的会面中，丹麦对格陵兰岛的主权问题甚至没有被提及——这反而会巩固这位“特朗普密语者”的声誉。
但瑞典副首相埃芭·布施警告称，这场风暴可能尚未结束。
“今天的进展可能成为明天的麻烦，”布施在接受CNN的吉姆·西库托采访时表示，“现在还为时过早，无法确定这项协议的真正内容。”
特朗普对盟友领导人连日来的侮辱引发了北约即将崩溃的担忧，随后上演了一系列荒诞场景。他最初拒绝排除派遣军队占领格陵兰岛（该岛已是北约成员国的领土）的可能性，这一行为仿佛出自一部糟糕的未来主义惊悚片。
特朗普在华盛顿和瑞士多日的语无伦次、令人困惑的公开露面进一步混淆了问题。周三，他甚至把格陵兰岛和冰岛弄混了。
他一直受一时兴起和社交媒体爆发的支配。但在摆脱他自己引发的危机时，特朗普暴露了围绕其日益不受欢迎的总统任期的另类事实现实。
而特朗普两届任期以来最令人困惑的事件之一，将加深人们对其易变情绪在未来三年将把国家和世界带向何方的担忧。
“我对特朗普总统和特朗普政府的信息是：是时候清醒过来，冷静下来了，”布施说。
“我不会因为一条新推文就改变我的政策。”
2026年1月20日，格陵兰岛努克上空出现北极光。
Evgeniy Maloletka/AP
两个相互矛盾的现实
在保守派媒体中，特朗普再次被吹捧为一位“下一盘大棋”的战略大师，他采取强硬立场迫使软弱的欧洲人达成“协议”。这种说法认为，总统以威胁北约解体和毁灭性关税为手段，换取了惊人的让步。
这很难让人信服，因为没有迹象表明欧洲向特朗普做出了任何实质性让步，也没有证据显示他真的获得了格陵兰岛的主权。无论如何，根据与丹麦现有的条约，美国长期以来一直有权派遣任何军事资产来加强这个世界最大岛屿的防御。
在右翼圈子之外，特朗普在威胁欧洲国家除非割让格陵兰岛否则将对其征收关税后又突然放弃，这被嘲笑为又一个“特朗普总是临阵退缩”（TACO）的时刻。就像他之前“解放日”关税威胁一样，总统可能被自己行动的结果吓住了。
总统甚至无法解释他声称达成的协议细节。当被CNN的凯特兰·柯林斯问及该协议是否意味着美国将拥有格陵兰岛时，他长时间沉默后坚称这是“最终的长期协议”，并将是“无限期”的。
在接受CNBC采访时，特朗普在谈论与吕特会面后，用“协议的概念”来吹嘘，细节同样模糊不清。“这有点复杂，但我们会稍后解释，”总统说，但透露这是“永久”的，这显示出作为总司令，他对细节的理解几乎令人难以置信。
前美国驻乌克兰大使威廉·泰勒告诉CNN的埃丽卡·希尔，特朗普说该协议会让所有人满意，这一点在某种程度上是对的。“这确实会让人们满意，因为我们可以不再谈论这个非问题。现在我们可以回到真正重要的事情上，也就是实现乌克兰的和平，”泰勒说。
在瑞士达沃斯发生的周三令人晕头转向的事件，并非唯一引发对79岁总统心态以及其行为可能对美国国家利益造成长期损害担忧的争议。
他提出的可能取代联合国的“和平委员会”计划也在达沃斯引起关注。希望获得永久席位的成员国需缴纳10亿美元的入会费，这让人联想到他私人俱乐部的会费，而非一个真正的国际外交机构。随后又有人透露，特朗普曾邀请俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京加入，尽管他在非法入侵乌克兰期间屠杀平民。“是的，我会在上面放一些有争议的人，但这些人能把事情做成，”特朗普说。
和平委员会的“小字条款”凸显了这个想法的荒谬性。例如，它暗示总统即使卸任后，仍将继续管理这个俱乐部，指导全球外交。由于这一计划暗示联合国将被边缘化，几个美国盟友已与其保持距离。然而在特朗普看来，这是“有史以来最伟大的委员会”。
2026年1月21日，在第56届世界经济论坛年会上，与会者聆听美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的讲话。
Jonathan Ernst/Reuters
特朗普领导下美国命运的新疑问
从格陵兰岛风波中可以得出几个重要结论。
首先，特朗普的外交政策行为正变得越来越自恋和不合逻辑。围绕格陵兰岛的奇怪转折可能会损害他精心塑造的“钢铁硬汉”形象，尤其是在特种部队突袭成功推翻委内瑞拉独裁者尼古拉斯·马杜罗之后。
格陵兰危机主要由总统个人的执念驱动。他告诉《纽约时报》，拥有这个大岛对他而言“在心理上很重要”。他随后在给挪威首相的短信中暗示，他应该获得格陵兰岛作为“参与奖”，因为他没有获得诺贝尔和平奖。
五角大楼从未透露过关于格陵兰岛的具体军事计划。但特朗普的反复无常和第二任期的好战意味着没有人能确定他的下一步行动。许多外部人士曾怀疑特朗普会对伊朗核项目采取行动，或者会驱逐委内瑞拉总统，但他冒险行动并为其威胁建立了可信度。
特朗普对盟友领导人的怨恨也令人瞩目。最近几天，他猛烈抨击英国首相基尔·斯塔默、法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙和瑞士——尽管他称赞瑞士的制表工艺。他向加拿大总理马克·卡尼发出了严厉警告，而卡尼一天前在演讲中警告称美国造成了国际体系的“裂痕”。
“加拿大的生存依赖于美国，”特朗普说，“记住这一点，马克，下次你发表声明时。”
不言而喻，这一切都不是正常的总统行为。
特朗普还对他是否会在未获得格陵兰岛的情况下履行北约《北大西洋公约》第五条共同防御承诺提出了新的质疑。“他们有选择。你可以说‘是’，我们会非常感激；或者说‘不’，我们会记住，”特朗普在达沃斯演讲中表示。
特朗普过去对北约成员国利用美国军事支持、削减自身国防预算的抱怨是合理的。但他最近几周的敌意可能进一步削弱了联盟。事实上，他的行为加剧了盟友们对西方联盟因美国领导不稳定而衰落的担忧。
尽管如此，特朗普最终还是退缩了。
在他周末威胁要对欧洲国家加征关税以换取格陵兰岛后，原本一路飙升的个人退休账户（401k）遭遇股市暴跌——他将其视为自己经济表现的晴雨表。当他收回关税威胁时，全球股市反弹。当不可避免的下一场争议出现时，欧洲可能再次愿意威胁动员其贸易力量来安抚这个“美国霸王”——尤其是在中期选举年，美国选民对新的经济动荡更加敏感。
对欧洲而言，这一事件的教训是，通过团结起来对抗特朗普，他们似乎迫使他退缩。在此之前，只有中国通过使用稀土“王牌”冻结了他的贸易战，才成功阻止了他。
此前，欧洲领导人通过奉承和屈服于特朗普以避免其愤怒，这是多么的失败。他对英国关于格陵兰岛的关税威胁表明，去年的皇家访问可能暂时触动了总统的心弦，但并未留下任何善意的余波。
与此同时，欧洲国家对丹麦的支持，成为卡尼在达沃斯呼吁“中等强国”团结起来的范例，这一演讲可能被铭记为西方后美国时代的第一个可信蓝图。
但这不会是白宫决心以实力和武力统治而引发的最后一次对抗。
尽管如此，在特朗普退缩后，北约内部冲突的可能性已有所降低。他可以在他声称已经结束的战争名单上再添一笔。
本文已更新以增加更多信息。
唐纳德·特朗普 北约 关税
Trump’s latest TACO moment puts his increasingly erratic temperament in the spotlight
Analysis by Stephen Collinson
Updated Jan 22, 2026, 8:18 AM ET
PUBLISHED Jan 21, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
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President Donald Trump walks toward Marine One after arriving at Zurich Airport on January 21, 2026.
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Donald Trump NATO Tariffs
President Donald Trump’s climbdown on Greenland capped one of the most erratic episodes involving a modern president on the world stage.
Within hours Wednesday, Trump flipped from demanding “right, title, and ownership” of the semiautonomous Danish territory to celebrating an “infinite,” “forever” framework deal over its future.
The breakthrough seems to hinge on extra NATO forces to secure the Arctic — something he could have got before his week of mayhem — if only he’d asked.
The president told Fox Business on Thursday that the framework deal under negotiation would give the US “total access” with no time limit to Greenland for the United States, especially for his proposed Golden Dome missile defense system. This may turn out not to differ substantially from Washington’s existing treaty with Denmark. But crucially, an updated deal would give the president a legacy achievement to sign into history.
If the cost of all this is badly damaged relations with Europe and new questions about his fealty to NATO defense guarantees, then that may simply be the cost of doing business for a president fixated on personal goals.
And whatever the face-saving spin, there’s no sign Trump will return home from the World Economic Forum in Davos with the deeds to a vast, icy land on which he can plant the Stars and Stripes. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said on Fox News that the question of Danish sovereignty over Greenland didn’t even come up during a meeting with the president that will bolster the smooth Dutchman’s reputation as a “Trump whisperer.”
But Sweden’s Deputy Prime Minister Ebba Busch warned the storm may not yet be over.
“Today’s progress might be tomorrow’s headache,” Busch told CNN’s Jim Sciutto on “The Brief.” “It’s still too soon to tell what this deal really entails.”
Farcical scenes unfolded after Trump flung days of insults at allied leaders, raising fears that NATO was about to implode. His initial refusal to rule out sending troops to take Greenland — which is already alliance territory — seemed torn from a bad futuristic thriller.
Trump further confused the issue with several days of rambling and baffling public appearances in Washington and Switzerland. On Wednesday, he even got Greenland and Iceland confused.
He’s always governed by whim and social media outbursts. But in extricating himself from a crisis that he triggered, Trump laid bare the alternative factual reality that surrounds his increasingly unpopular presidency.
And one of the most perplexing episodes so far of Trump’s two terms will deepen concern about where his volatile moods will lead the nation and the world in the next three years.
“My message to President Trump and the Trump administration is: It’s time to come to your senses and calm down,” Busch said.
“I’m not going to change my policy tomorrow in a new tweet.”
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The northern lights are seen in the sky above Nuuk, Greenland, on January 20, 2026.
Evgeniy Maloletka/AP
Two dueling realities
On conservative media, Trump was again being lionized as the master strategist playing 4-D chess who staked out a maximalist position to pressure feckless Europeans into a “deal.” This line of argument relies on the belief that the president threatened Europe with the implicit breakup of NATO and devastating tariffs, thereby securing stunning concessions.
This is hard to take seriously because there is no sign Europe gave Trump anything, nor that he secured Greenland as an addition to US territory as he demanded. In any case, under existing treaties with Denmark, Washington has long had the capacity and right to send any military assets that it wants to reinforce the world’s largest island.
Outside the right-wing bubble, Trump is being mocked for another “TACO” (“Trump always chickens out”) moment after dropping the threat of tariffs on European nations until they agreed to give him Greenland. Just as with his “Liberation Day” tariffs, the president may have been spooked by the result of his own actions.
The president couldn’t even explain the deal he claimed to have clinched. When he was asked by CNN’s Kaitlan Collins whether the agreement meant the US would own Greenland, there was a prolonged pause before he insisted it was the “ultimate, long term deal” and would be “infinite.”
In an interview on CNBC, the details were equally foggy as Trump boasted about “the concept of a deal” after talking to Rutte. “It’s a little bit complex, but we will explain it down the line,” the president said, but revealed that this was for “forever,” showing a barely believable lack of grasp of detail for a commander-in-chief.
Former US Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor told CNN’s Erica Hill that Trump was right in one sense when he said the proposed deal would make everybody happy. “It does make people happy because we can get off talking about this non-problem. Now we can get back to what really matters and that is getting peace in Ukraine,” Taylor said.
Wednesday’s head spinning events in Davos, Switzerland, were not the only controversy raising concerns about the 79-year-old president’s mindset and the long-term damage that his behavior may wreak on US national interests.
His plans for a Board of Peace that he said might replace the United Nations also came into focus in Davos. The $1 billion joining fee for member states who want permanent membership recalled the dues at one of his private clubs more than a bona fide international diplomatic institution. Then it emerged that Trump had asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to join, despite his butchering of civilians during his illegal invasion of Ukraine. “Yeah, I have some controversial people on it, but these are people that get the job done,” Trump said.
The small print for the peace board underscores the absurdity of the idea. It implies, for instance, that the president would continue to run the club, directing global diplomacy, even after he’s left the White House. Several US allies have distanced themselves from the plan since it implies the eclipsing of the United Nations. Yet in Trump’s mind, it’s “the greatest board ever assembled.”
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Attendees listen to President Donald Trump’s remarks during the 56th annual World Economic Forum in Davos on January 21, 2026.
Jonathan Ernst/Reuters
New questions raised over America’s destiny under Trump
There are several significant takeaways from the Greenland storm.
The first is that Trump’s conduct of foreign policy is becoming ever more narcissistic and illogical. The odd twists and turns over Greenland may tarnish the image of a steely commander in chief he’s cultivated, in particular after a special forces raid that extracted Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro.
The Greenland crisis was largely driven by a personal presidential obsession. He told the New York Times that owning the vast island was “psychologically important for me.” He then implied in a text message to Norway’s prime minister that he was owed Greenland as a sort of participation trophy since he was not awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.
The Pentagon never revealed tangible plans to move on Greenland. But Trump’s tempestuousness and second-term belligerence mean no one could be sure. Many outsiders doubted that Trump would strike Iran’s nuclear program last year or that he would oust Venezuela’s president — but he took on the risks and built credibility for his threats.
Trump’s bitterness towards allied leaders was also remarkable. In recent days, he’s savaged British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron and Switzerland — although he praised its prowess in watchmaking. He delivered a dark warning to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who a day earlier had warned in a speech that the US had caused a “rupture” in the international system.
“Canada lives because of the United States,” Trump said. “Remember that, Mark, the next time you make your statements.”
It goes without saying that none of this is normal presidential behavior.
Trump also raised fresh doubts about whether he’d honor NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense guarantee if he didn’t get Greenland. “They have a choice. You can say ‘yes’, and we will be very appreciative, or you can say ‘no’, and we will remember,” Trump said in his Davos speech.
Trump has been justified in his past complaints that NATO members were taking advantage of US military support by tanking their own defense budgets. But his antipathy in recent weeks may have further weakened the alliance. In fact, he’s justified the growing understanding among fellow alliance members that the Western alliance is waning because of unstable American leadership.
Still, Trump did ultimately back down.
Following his weekend threat to tariff European states into handing over Greenland, a stock slump hit the previously soaring 401k accounts which he uses as a barometer of his economic performance. Global stocks bounced back when he walked back his tariff threats. When the inevitable next controversy emerges, Europe may again be willing to threaten to mobilize its trading might to calm the American bully — especially in a midterm election year when US voters are already hypersensitive to new economic upsets.
For Europe, one lesson from this saga will be that by standing together and standing up to Trump they appear to have forced him to back down. Before now, only China among foreign nations had halted him in his tracks by using its rare earths trump card to ice his trade war.
Previously, European leaders flattered and genuflected to Trump to avoid his wrath. What a failure. His tariff threat to Britain over Greenland showed that last year’s royal visit might have touched the president’s heart in the moment, but it left no half-life of goodwill.
European solidarity behind Denmark, meanwhile, was an object lesson of Carney’s call in Davos for “middle powers” to stick together, in a speech likely to be remembered as the first credible blueprint for the West’s post-American era.
But this will not be the last confrontation stirred by the White House’s determination to rule by strength and force.
Still, after Trump backed down, the idea of NATO-on-NATO conflict has receded. He can add another data point to the ever-lengthening list of wars he claims to have ended.
This story has been updated with additional information.
Donald Trump NATO Tariffs