2026-05-21T04:00:07.973Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/21/politics/trump-cuba-castro-indictment-iran-war-analysis
- 美国政府以谋杀罪和共谋杀害美国人的罪名起诉94岁的古巴前总统劳尔·卡斯特罗。
- 该起诉恰逢美国石油封锁在古巴造成严重人道主义危机，并威胁到该国社会崩溃之际。
- 在未能结束伊朗战争、导致其支持率受损后，特朗普试图在古巴取得政权更迭的胜利。
AI生成的摘要经CNN编辑审核。
唐纳德·特朗普总统正在古巴追求一场能改变政权的胜利，而这是他在伊朗未能做到的。但美国这支已经捉襟见肘的武装部队若采取更多行动，将面临巨大的政治和军事风险。
美国政府以谋杀和共谋杀害美国公民的罪名起诉94岁的古巴前总统劳尔·卡斯特罗，这是美国与这个共产主义岛国近70年对峙中的一个显著转折。
周三的起诉恰逢古巴独立日，也是特朗普升级行动阶梯上的重要一步。此次起诉与美国石油封锁同时进行，该封锁已造成严重的人道主义危机，并威胁到古巴社会的崩溃；与此同时，美国外交施压也在持续升级；此外，中央情报局局长约翰·拉特克利夫最近还向哈瓦那提交了一系列要求。
几周来，特朗普一直威胁古巴，称他可以对这个贫困国家“为所欲为”，或许还能“有幸拿下古巴”。周三，他表示正在“解放”这个国家。
“这是一个正在衰落的国家。你们都看到了，它正在分崩离析。他们没有石油，也没有钱，”特朗普对记者说，“但我们会提供帮助——我们会帮助那里的家庭和人民。”
针对1996年击落两架民用飞机、造成包括三名美国人在内的四人死亡事件的卡斯特罗起诉，看起来像是本届政府的双重策略。特朗普可能希望进一步削弱哈瓦那政权，或许可以通过罢免那些愿意谈判的温和或务实派成员。但这一新的法律攻势也可能成为军事行动或特种部队突袭的借口，就像今年1月推翻委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗的行动那样。
Quincy负责任国家战略研究所的研究员李·施伦克警告称，如果美国司法部在佛罗里达州公布的起诉旨在换取古巴的让步，那么这可能会适得其反。“我认为这将断送任何与古巴达成协议的可能性，”施伦克说。
“这将产生‘团结在国旗周围’的效应，并强化古巴领导层的围堵心态，”他补充道。
古巴博弈是本届政府战略的最新考验：通过实施封锁加剧经济压力，同时以使用武力为威胁，迫使对手屈服。这一策略在委内瑞拉奏效，帮助确定了高级官员德尔西·罗德里格斯的身份，她后来成为代理总统，并与特朗普团队进行接触。但委内瑞拉民众尚未看到他们对民主的希望成真。类似的策略在伊朗则彻底失败，以至于特朗普可能别无选择，只能重启战争。
古巴总统米格尔·迪亚斯-卡内尔抨击该起诉是政治伎俩，展现了美国帝国的“傲慢与挫败感”。古巴的反抗挑战了特朗普外交政策的核心信念：任何局势都是一笔待达成的交易，美国对弱小对手动用暴力的可能性可以迫使它们屈服，向美国企业开放边境、房地产和原材料。
目前，古巴附近尚未出现美国在委内瑞拉和伊朗发动军事行动前那样的大规模军事集结。但CNN报道称，美国在古巴海岸外的军事侦察飞行次数激增。此类活动的增加曾 precede（先于）对伊朗和委内瑞拉的袭击。
但特朗普因伊朗战争而暴跌的支持率意味着，他几乎没有政治资本来支持新的军事行动。CNN、《纽约时报》等机构最近的民调显示，大多数美国人反对伊朗战争。许多人已经开始将特朗普的政策与他们个人的经济困境直接联系起来。民调还显示，大多数美国人反对特朗普的古巴政策。
美国与古巴的直接对抗——尽管无疑会受到佛罗里达州反共流亡者的欢迎，这些人是重要的政治力量——将给共和党在中期选举中带来另一项巨大挑战。共和党本就背负着特朗普创历史新低的支持率包袱，而新的冲突将印证民主党人的说法，即总统对选民的痛苦视而不见。即使在古巴取得外交政策的胜利，对于那些难以支付住房和食品费用的选民来说也可能意义不大。
“美国民众并不想要另一场战争。他们希望我们专注于在亚利桑那州建造住房——而不是轰炸哈瓦那的住房，”民主党参议员鲁本·加列戈在上个月民主党未能阻止美国军队对古巴采取任何未经授权的军事行动时，在一份声明中说道，“他们希望我们降低医疗成本——而不是让一代退伍军人终生与医院为伴。他们希望我们让他们的生活更负担得起——而不是用他们的税款打不必要的战争。”
与此同时，任何美国的袭击或特种部队突袭，都比美国特工针对马杜罗的闪电袭击面临更大的反对风险和潜在的美军伤亡。古巴军队资源匮乏，装备往往过时。但它仍然能够对任何美国远征军造成伤亡。
为了防范类似马杜罗式的特种部队突袭抓捕行动，针对卡斯特罗的安保可能会极其严密。
尽管据报道特朗普政府与劳尔·卡斯特罗的孙子兼保镖劳尔·吉列尔莫·罗德里格斯·卡斯特罗有接触，但政权与民众数十年的协同作用可能意味着，委内瑞拉所见的与美国官员和外交官的合作在古巴不太可能出现。
施伦克指出，古巴奉行全民在外国入侵时响应的防御性国防政策。“这将造成美军伤亡，同时也会导致数十甚至数百名古巴平民和安全人员死亡，”他说，“我们根本不会看到古巴政府的全面变革。恰恰相反，我们会看到镇压加剧，向民主和自由市场迈进的进展微乎其微。”
与此同时，美国对古巴石油进口的收紧封锁，正通过造成极端贫困、引发社会崩溃的风险，制造不稳定局势。这可能导致大规模难民外流，迅速演变为移民危机，而本届政府曾誓言要保卫美国边境。
然而，本届政府对迅速果断的军事行动的偏好——至少在伊朗战争之前——意味着美国的军事行动永远不能被排除。特朗普在演讲中常常怀念对马杜罗的突袭行动。这次行动可能让他错误地认为，推翻伊朗政权并赢得战争会很容易。
本届政府为何认为在古巴胜算在握
考虑到特朗普军事冒险的风险和质疑——这与他不再发动更多外国战争的誓言格格不入——本届政府为何还会考虑在古巴引发新的危机？
首先，总统迫切需要一场胜利来提振其外交政策。其团队称该政策恢复了美国在海外的威望和尊重，但实际上，鉴于他未能结束伊朗战争、至今未能解决乌克兰冲突或推进加沙停火计划的各个阶段，该政策看起来相当受损。
成为继约翰·F·肯尼迪等历任总统之后，成功推翻已故独裁者菲德尔·卡斯特罗政权的总统，这一前景有望带来特朗普梦寐以求的历史性认可。而他的国务卿马可·卢比奥是古巴移民之子，长期以来一直以破坏哈瓦那政府为其职业生涯的核心目标。
将古巴从对手转变为盟友，将巩固“多诺罗主义”——本届政府控制整个西半球的努力。除了突袭马杜罗之外，该政策还包括华盛顿为阿根廷一位支持“让美国再次伟大”的总统提供金融救助，并支持拉美各地选举中的右翼民粹主义者。
特朗普的古巴政策在某些方面可能与往届政府相似。美国政府长期以来一直担忧俄罗斯和中国等对手在古巴沿海开展间谍和监视活动。推翻该政权也将剥夺这些势力在哈瓦那的政治盟友。
古巴民众几十年来一直生活在压迫和经济困境之中。推翻政权也将为他们带来政治自由和更繁荣生活的希望——尽管本届政府的过往记录让人怀疑其在此方面的诚意。
而特朗普采用的严厉强制手段正在对古巴民众造成毁灭性影响，这意味着他面临着不人道和违反国际法的指控。
联合国专家在2月份警告称，美国的石油封锁和相关制裁正威胁到“电力生产、供水和卫生系统、医院、公共交通以及包括灌溉、收割、冷藏和食品分销在内的粮食生产所不可或缺的燃料”。
但周三，卢比奥在一段视频信息中对古巴民众表示，“你们没有电、燃料或食物的真正原因是那些控制你们国家的人掠夺了数十亿美元”。根据翻译后的文字记录，他补充道，“没有任何东西被用于帮助人民”。
没有人会质疑古巴政府的残酷和压迫性。伊朗也是如此，特朗普在伊朗实施的封锁加剧了平民的痛苦，而这些平民多年来也一直面临着国内的迫害。
但两个政权都尚未倒台。而总统为了提升自己的历史地位所使用的策略意味着，任何胜利都将付出高昂的代价。
Trump seeks redemption in Cuba after his regime-change failure in Iran
2026-05-21T04:00:07.973Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/21/politics/trump-cuba-castro-indictment-iran-war-analysis
- The US government has indicted 94-year-old former Cuban President Raúl Castro for murder and conspiracy to kill Americans.
- The indictment coincides with a US oil blockade causing a grave humanitarian crisis in Cuba and threatening societal collapse.
- Trump seeks a regime-change victory in Cuba after failing to end the war in Iran, which has damaged his approval ratings.
AI-generated summary was reviewed by a CNN editor.
President Donald Trump is chasing the kind of regime-altering triumph in Cuba that has eluded him in Iran. But any move toward yet more action by the stretched US armed forces would come with high political and military risks.
The US government’s indictment of 94-year-old former Cuban President Raúl Castro for murder and conspiracy to kill US nationals is a remarkable twist in a nearly 70-year American showdown with the communist island.
Wednesday’s indictment — which came on Cuban Independence Day — is also a significant step up Trump’s escalation ladder. It coincides with a US oil blockade that has caused a grave humanitarian crisis and threatens to collapse Cuban society; steadily rising diplomatic pressure; and a recent list of demands delivered in Havana by CIA Director John Ratcliffe.
Trump has been threatening Cuba for weeks, saying he can do “anything” he wants with the impoverished state and may have “the honor of taking Cuba.” On Wednesday, he said he was “freeing up” the country.
“It’s a failing nation. You see that. It’s falling apart. They have no oil, they have no money,” Trump told reporters. “But we’re there to help — we’re there to help the families, the people.”
The Castro indictment, over the 1996 shooting-down of two civilian aircraft that killed four people, including three Americans, looks like an administration double play. Trump may hope to further strain the regime in Havana, perhaps by dislodging weaker or more pragmatic members who might be willing to talk. But the new legal front could also be a pretext for military action or a special forces raid like the one that ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January.
Lee Schlenker, a research associate at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, warned that the Justice Department indictment unsealed in Florida could backfire on the White House if it was meant to elicit Cuban concessions. “I think this is going to be a death sentence for any potential deal with Cuba,” Schlenker said.
“This is going to produce a rally-around-the-flag effect and harden the Cuban leadership siege mentality,” he added.
The Cuba gambit is the latest test of the administration’s strategy of ratcheting up economic duress by imposing a blockade while raising the prospect of the use of force to get enemies to capitulate. This worked in Venezuela and helped identify Delcy Rodríguez, a senior regime figure who became acting president and is dealing with the Trump team. But Venezuelans are yet to see their hopes for democracy made good. A similar approach has also been such a failure in Iran that Trump may have no option but to restart the war.
Cuban President President Miguel Díaz-Canel blasted the indictment as a political maneuver that shows the “arrogance and frustration” of the US empire. His country’s defiance challenges the foundational belief of Trump’s foreign policy: that every situation is a deal waiting to happen and that the possibility of violent US action against smaller adversaries can lead them to fold and to open their borders, real estate and raw materials to US firms.
There is currently no sign near Cuba of the large-scale military buildups that preceded US military action in Venezuela and Iran. But CNN reports that US military intelligence flights are surging off the Cuban coast. An uptick in such activity preceded the attacks on Iran and Venezuela.
But Trump’s tanking approval ratings over the war in Iran mean he has little political capital to support a new military venture. Recent polling from CNN, the New York Times and other outlets shows that majorities of Americans oppose the Iran war. Many have started to directly connect Trump’s policies to their personal economic challenges. And polls also show that majorities of Americans oppose Trump’s Cuba policy.
A direct US confrontation with Cuba — while it would no doubt be popular with anti-communist exiles in Florida, who are a significant political force — would pose another enormous challenge for Republicans in midterm elections. The GOP is already saddled with Trump’s historically low approval ratings, and a new conflict would play into Democratic claims the president is oblivious to voters’ pain. Even a foreign policy triumph in Cuba might mean little to voters struggling to pay for housing and groceries.
“The American people are not asking for another war. They want us focused on building housing in Arizona – not bombing housing in Havana,” Democratic Sen. Ruben Gallego said in a statement last month when Democrats failed to block the use of US forces in any unauthorized military action against Cuba. “They want us to lower the cost of healthcare – not condemn a generation of veterans to a lifetime of hospital visits. They want us to make their lives more affordable – not spend their tax dollars on unnecessary wars.”
Any US assault or special forces raid, meanwhile, would risk far greater pushback and potential US casualties than the lightning strike by US operatives against Maduro. Cuba’s military is short on resources, with often-outdated equipment. But it could still inflict casualties on any US expeditionary forces.
And security around Castro is likely to be exceedingly tight in order to ward off any Maduro-type snatch-and-grab special forces spectacular.
Decades of synergy between the regime and its people might also mean that the cooperation with US officials and diplomats seen in Venezuela would be unlikely in Cuba, notwithstanding reported Trump administration contacts with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, Raúl Castro’s grandson and bodyguard.
Schlenker pointed out that Cubans subscribe to a defensive doctrine that requires the entire populace to respond in the event of a foreign invasion. “That would cause US casualties that would (also) lead to dozens, if not hundreds, of Cuban civilians and security forces dying,” he said. “We really wouldn’t see a wholesale transformation of the Cuban government. If anything, we would see increased repression, very little progress towards moving towards democracy and a free market.”
The tightening US blockade on Cuban oil imports, meanwhile, is setting up an unstable situation by causing extreme deprivation that risks societal collapse. This could cause a mass refugee exodus that might quickly turn into an immigration crisis for an administration that has vowed to secure US borders.
Yet the administration’s affinity for sharp, quick military operations — at least until the Iran war — means US military action can never be ruled out. Trump often fondly recalls the Maduro raid in speeches. The operation may have led him falsely to expect that toppling Iran’s regime and winning the war would be easy.
Why the administration thinks it’s got a winning hand in Cuba
Given the risks and skepticism of Trump’s military adventures, which sit uneasily with his vows to wage no more foreign wars, why would the administration even think of initiating a new crisis in Cuba?
Well, the president badly needs a victory to bolster a foreign policy that his team says has restored US prestige and respect overseas but that in reality is looking rather battered, given his inability to end the war in Iran and his failures thus far to end the Ukrainian conflict or advance through the stages of the Gaza ceasefire plan.
The prospect of becoming the president who succeeded where predecessors from John F. Kennedy onward failed in slaying the regime of late dictator Fidel Castro promises the kind of historic recognition that Trump craves. And his Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a son of Cuban immigrants, has long sought to undermine the government in Havana as a driving force of his career.
Turning Cuba from an adversary to a client would solidify the “Donroe Doctrine” — the administration’s push to control the entire Western Hemisphere. In addition to the Maduro raid, the policy has seen Washington offer a financial bailout to a MAGA-supporting president in Argentina and back right-wing populists in elections across the region.
Trump’s Cuba policy has some aspects that might be familiar to previous administrations. US governments have long worried about Cuba-based espionage and surveillance off the US coast by adversaries like Russia and China. Turning the regime would also deprive those powers of political soul mates in Havana.
Cuban civilians have lived in repressive and economically dire conditions for decades. Destroying the regime would also offer them hopes of political freedoms and more prosperous lives — although the administration’s track record raises doubts about its sincerity here.
And Trump’s embrace of harsh, coercive methods that are having a devastating impact on the population mean he faces accusations of inhumanity and infringing international law.
UN experts warned in February that the US oil blockade and associated sanctions were threatening “fuel indispensable for electricity generation, water and sanitation systems, hospitals, public transportation, and food production, including irrigation, harvesting, refrigeration and food distribution.”
But on Wednesday, Rubio told Cubans in a video message that “the real reason you don’t have electricity, fuel, or food is because those who control your country have plundered billions of dollars.” He added that “nothing has been used to help the people,” according to a translated transcript.
No one argues the Cuban government is anything but cruel and repressive. The same might be said for Iran, where another Trump blockade is exacerbating the pain endured by civilians who’ve also faced years of internal persecution.
But neither regime has yet fallen. And the tactics the president is using to try to bolster his own place in history means any triumphs will come at a high cost.