2026年3月27日 / 美国东部时间上午10:31 / MoneyWatch
据经济学家和华尔街分析师称，伊朗战争增加了美国在未来12个月内陷入衰退的风险。
高盛分析师本周估计，全球能源价格上涨将使美国通胀率在年底提高0.2个百分点至3.1%，这将拖累消费者支出和经济增长。该投资银行将未来一年出现衰退的可能性提高至30%。
咨询和研究公司EY-Parthenon的经济学家认为，未来12个月内出现严重衰退的概率为40%，高于2月28日美国和以色列袭击伊朗之前的35%。他们指出，冲突对全球石油供应的破坏导致持续的通胀压力。通常约有20%的原油和天然气通过霍尔木兹海峡运输，由于战争原因，该海峡几乎不对油轮和其他航运交通开放。
EY-Parthenon首席经济学家格雷戈里·达科告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻：”金融环境趋紧、不确定性增加和通胀上升的综合影响将削弱经济增长。我们下调了增长预期，并提高了衰退可能性，因为如果冲突加剧或持续，经济下滑的风险将更加明显。”
他补充说，同时”我们看到汽油价格大幅上涨，这给许多家庭带来压力，他们仍在从疫情造成的高通胀和其他经济混乱中恢复。”
美国汽车协会(AAA)数据显示，周五美国全国平均汽油价格为每加仑3.98美元，较一个月前上涨1美元。柴油价格涨幅更大，目前为每加仑5.37美元，较一个月前的3.75美元大幅上升，而柴油广泛用于农业、卡车运输和建筑等行业。
其他价格面临上涨压力
伊朗战争还对美国经济的其他关键行业产生不利影响。
高盛经济学家预计，中东动荡导致的化肥供应中断可能使今年美国食品价格上涨约1.5%。自战争爆发以来，尿素和氨等关键化肥产品价格已上涨。这意味着美国农民的投入成本增加，消费者面临更高的食品通胀。
运输行业也受到冲击。航空公司已宣布征收附加费并提高票价，以应对航空燃油成本上升。美国邮政服务周三宣布临时8%的邮资附加费，以抵消不断增加的运输成本。
达科表示：”通胀上升将抑制经济活动，因此增长将低于之前的预期。”
PNC金融服务集团首席经济学家格斯·福彻告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻，如果油价升至每桶150美元，经济衰退的可能性将超过50%。
他解释说：”能源价格上涨意味着企业和消费者可用于其他商品和服务的资金减少，从而拖累经济活动。”
目前，油价仍远低于这些水平。国际基准布伦特原油周四上涨1.4%至每桶101.89美元，因伊朗战争升级的新迹象出现。美国基准原油上涨4.5%至每桶94.43美元。按这些标准，自2月28日敌对行动爆发以来，油价已上涨约40%。
对经济最大的风险可能是不确定性增加抑制消费者支出——消费者支出约占美国经济活动的三分之二——并拖累金融市场，损害投资者信心。
福彻表示：”如果你是消费者，你可能会推迟大额购买计划，因为不确定几个月后的经济状况。经济目前主要依靠高收入人群支撑，如果他们削减支出，可能会将经济推向衰退。”
他补充说，如果高能源价格持续，企业也可能缩减计划中的投资。”如果你试图做计划，油价在每桶60美元和120美元时情况会大不相同，因此企业可能会推迟投资决策，直到前景明朗。”
美国可能避免经济衰退的原因
尽管存在上述担忧，专家强调经济衰退并非迫在眉睫，指出美国有能力抵御这场冲突带来的影响。
首先，美国经济已很大程度上摆脱了近期其他经济冲击的影响，包括特朗普政府对数十个贸易伙伴实施的高额关税。达科还指出，美国受中东冲突经济影响的脆弱性低于其他地区。中东大部分原油运往亚洲和欧洲，而美国目前是全球最大的石油生产国。
美国石油协会的数据显示，如今消费者在能源商品和服务上的支出占收入的比例比过去更低。
ClearBridge Investments分析师乔希·贾姆纳指出，汽车燃油效率提高，车主不必频繁加油，共和党”一揽子美丽法案”中相关条款带来的更大退税也将有助于抵消加油成本上升。
阿波罗全球管理公司首席经济学家托尔斯滕·斯洛科也强调，伊朗战争前美国经济增长势头强劲，这得益于人工智能数据中心支出和国内制造业投资增加。
他告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻：”在伊朗冲突之前，增长的推动力非常强劲。”
斯洛科预测通胀将上升0.1%，GDP下降0.1%，失业率上升0.1%。
“中东局势的影响相当有限，”他补充说，将美国经济衰退的可能性仅定为10%。
Iran war fallout raises odds of a U.S. recession, economists say
March 27, 2026 / 10:31 AM EDT / MoneyWatch
The Iran war raises the risk that the U.S. will tumble into a recession within the next 12 months, according to economists and Wall Street analysts.
Goldman Sachs analysts this week estimated that higher global energy prices would boost U.S. inflation by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1% by the end of the year, putting a drag on consumer spending and economic growth. The investment bank increased the probability of a recession over the next year to 30%.
Economists with consulting and research firm EY-Parthenon see a 40% chance of a severe downturn over the 12 months, up from 35% before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, citing persistent inflation due to the conflict’s disruption of global oil supply. Roughly 20% of crude and natural gas normally flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which remains all but closed to oil tankers and other shipping traffic because of the war.
“The combination of tighter financial conditions, more uncertainty and higher inflation is going to erode growth,” EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco told CBS News. “We’ve curbed our growth forecast down and increased the odds of recession on the basis that if this conflict becomes more severe or prolonged, then you would see a more visible risk of a downturn in the economy.”
At the same time, “we have seen an increase in gasoline prices that’s been quite significant,” he added, hitting many households as they continue to recover from the soaring inflation and other economic disruptions caused by the pandemic.
The national average gas price in the U.S. on Friday was $3.98 a gallon, up a dollar from a month ago, according to AAA. The cost of diesel, which is widely used in farming, trucking and construction, among other industries, has leaped even more and now stands at $5.37 a gallon, versus $3.75 a month ago.
Other prices set to rise
The Iran war is also adversely affecting other key sectors of the economy.
Goldman Sachs economists expect that a disruption in fertilizer supplies due to turmoil in the Middle East is likely to drive up U.S. food prices by roughly 1.5% this year. Key fertilizer products like urea and ammonia have risen in price since the war began. That means higher input costs for U.S. farmers, and higher food inflation for consumers.
The transportation industry is also taking a hit. Airlines have announced surcharges and hiked ticket prices to account for rising jet fuel costs. The U.S. Postal Service on Wednesday announced a temporary 8% postage surcharge to offset growing transportation costs.
“And that higher inflation will curtail economic activity, so you’re going to see less growth than previously anticipated,” Daco said.
PNC Financial Services Group chief economist Gus Faucher told CBS News that if oil prices rise to $150 a barrel, the odds of a recession would top 50%.
“Higher energy prices mean companies and consumers have less money to spend on other goods and services, so there is a drag on economic activity,” he explained.
For now, to be sure, oil prices remain well short of those levels. A barrel of Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose 1.4% on Thursday to $101.89 amid fresh signs of escalation in the Iran war. Benchmark U.S. crude climbed 4.5% to $94.43 per barrel. By those measures, oil prices are up roughly 40% since the outbreak of hostilities on Feb. 28.
Perhaps the biggest risk to the economy is that rising uncertainty dampens consumer spending, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, and weighs on financial markets, hurting investors.
“If you’re a consumer, you may want to hold off on making a big purchase because you’re not sure how the economy is going to look a few months from now,” Faucher said. “The economy has been propped up by higher-income people, and if they cut back on spending, it could push the economy into a recession.”
Businesses could also curtail planned investments if high energy prices persist, he added. “If you are trying to plan, there’s a big difference if oil is at $60 a barrel versus $120, so businesses may put investment decisions on hold until the outlook becomes clear.”
Why the U.S. may avert a recession
Despite such concerns, experts underline that a slump isn’t imminent, noting that the U.S. is well-positioned to weather the conflict.
For one, the economy has largely shrugged off other recent economic shockwaves, including the Trump administration’s move to impose steep tariffs on dozens of U.S. trading partners. Daco also noted that the U.S. is less vulnerable to economic fallout from the conflict than other regions. Most of the crude from the Middle East is destined for Asia and Europe, while the U.S. is today the world’s largest oil producer.
“That insulates to some extent the U.S. from the shock we’re seeing in the Middle East,” Daco said.
Consumers today also spend a smaller share of their incomes on energy goods and services than they did in the past, according to the American Petroleum Institute.
Relatedly, automobiles are more fuel-efficient, so motorists don’t have to fill up as frequently, ClearBridge Investments analyst Josh Jamner points out. He also thinks that larger tax refunds related to provisions in Republicans’ “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” will also help offset higher prices at the pump.
Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Slok also underscores the strength of the U.S. economy before the Iran war, boosted by spending on AI data centers and increased investment in domestic manufacturing.
“Before Iran, the tailwinds to growth were strong,” he told CBS News.
Slok is forecasting inflation to rise by 0.1%, for GDP to dip 0.1%, and for unemployment to rise 0.1%.
“The impact of what’s happening in the Middle East is quite limited,” he said, adding that he puts the probability of a recession in the U.S. at just 10%.