2026年4月13日 美国东部时间凌晨12:01 / CNN
作者：斯蒂芬·科林森 分析报道
4月11日，唐纳德·特朗普总统在白宫南草坪接受媒体采访。
何塞·路易斯·马加尼亚/美联社
美伊和谈失败后，唐纳德·特朗普总统面临一系列棘手选择，不太可能为他带来决定性或快速的胜利。
但他正加码推行一项封锁霍尔木兹海峡的计划，这一计划本身就存在引发严重且不可预见后果的风险。
美国政府对巴基斯坦伊斯兰堡周末会谈的描述显示，美方曾希望伊朗在多项要求上屈服，包括承诺不寻求核武器以及重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。
但伊朗拒绝放弃这一关键筹码，也不接受美国所谓“战争已经结束”的说法。由此陷入的僵局，正挑战特朗普的核心信条之一：美国的军事力量会让所有对手屈服于他的意志。
因此，特朗普如今正面临缩小伊朗选择空间的压力。
他在周日晚间告诉记者，他已下令美国军方从美国东部时间上午10点起实施海峡封锁。其目的是扼杀伊朗的石油收入，拖垮其经济。这项措施还旨在挫败德黑兰通过向这条关键航道的油轮收取安全通行费来增加收入的计划。
特朗普的计划无疑会对伊朗经济造成毁灭性打击——该国经济已因多年制裁和新爆发的战争濒临崩溃。但这也可能加剧战争对美国乃至全球经济的负面影响。
封锁消息传出后，油价再次飙升，布伦特原油每桶上涨8%，达到104美元。
这一反应将考验特朗普的决心，因为美国民众早已对食品和住房价格高企感到不满，如今汽油平均售价每加仑已超过4美元。油价上涨推动美国3月通胀率从2月的2.4%跃升至3.3%，并对整个经济产生负面影响。
“卡利斯托号”油轮3月10日停泊在阿曼马斯喀特港外的霍尔木兹海峡。
贝诺瓦·泰西耶/路透社
总统周日早些时候在福克斯新闻频道解释了封锁计划，但并未详细说明具体执行方式。“这就是所谓的‘全进全出’，没错，就是全进全出，”特朗普说道。
“总有一天，我们会让他们全都进港、全都离港，”特朗普补充道，他指的是滞留在波斯湾的数百艘油轮。“但不会有比例之分。不会照顾你的朋友，比如盟友或友好国家。要么全进，要么全不进。而且不会等太久。”
美国中央司令部周日表示，将对所有进出伊朗港口的船只实施封锁。该机构在X平台的帖子中称：“中央司令部部队不会妨碍为往返非伊朗港口而通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只的航行自由。”
诸多糟糕选项
美伊双方在巴基斯坦结束马拉松式会谈后，互相指责对方缺乏灵活性。这一僵局立即引发外界对上周开始的为期两周停火协议能否持续的质疑。但特朗普周日告诉记者，停火“进展顺利”。
封锁海峡的计划本身就存在风险。但特朗普的其他选择同样糟糕。
总统可以重新加大美以联合空袭力度，但目前尚不清楚，在已经重创伊朗军事和工业设施的基础上，进一步扩大攻势是否会让伊朗领导人更有可能屈服。如果特朗普兑现袭击发电厂和桥梁的严厉威胁，他可能会伤害到他曾誓言要保护的平民，还可能招致伊朗对美国盟友的报复，推高这场战争本已高昂的成本。
如果特朗普在宣布美军作战目标达成后撤离该地区，伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡这一全球石油出口关键咽喉的控制，以及其仍保留的浓缩铀库存，都将破坏这一计划。
特朗普别无选择，只能设法开放海峡
美国前驻联合国大使妮基·黑利表示，特朗普别无选择，只能设法开放海峡。“如果我们不采取行动阻止他们，他们不仅会掌握更多筹码，还会拥有比以前更多的资金，用于资助其代理人武装、购买弹道导弹补给物资，并继续推进核计划，”黑利周日在接受CNN记者达纳·巴什的《国情咨文》节目采访时说道。
伊朗哈尔克岛石油码头，2017年3月12日。
法特梅·巴哈拉米/阿纳多卢通讯社/盖蒂图片社/资料图
总统提出的封锁海峡计划，或许是在不派出美军地面部队袭击岸基导弹设施这一高风险行动的前提下，测试伊朗对该航道控制权的一种方式——直接派兵可能导致美军伤亡。但这一行动也可能让美国舰船更容易遭到伊朗袭击。
如果美国试图拦截任何同意伊朗通行条件的船只，封锁海峡还可能加剧与中国等大国的外交对抗。特朗普已为下月与中国国家主席习近平的峰会投入了大量政治资本，此次峰会已因战争推迟过一次。
美国封锁所有接受伊朗通行条款的船只的做法，还可能损害日本和欧洲等盟友的利益——这些国家本就因这场战争与美国产生嫌隙，且高度依赖海湾地区的石油供应。
难怪特朗普的一些批评者怀疑他最新的这场战争控制权争夺战能否奏效，认为这不过是其反复无常领导风格的又一例证：冲突理由不断变化、威胁愈发严重，最终却可能退缩。
“我不明白封锁海峡怎么能迫使伊朗开放海峡，我完全看不出其中的关联，”弗吉尼亚州民主党参议员马克·华纳在《国情咨文》节目中说道。
白宫解释美伊和谈破裂原因
白宫周日列出了伊朗拒绝接受的美国诉求，包括终止所有铀浓缩活动，并拆除去年美军空袭损毁的核设施。为防止伊朗未来重启核计划，美国政府希望追回超过400公斤被认为埋在伊朗核设施废墟中的高浓缩铀。
美国和以色列的战争目标还包括挫败伊朗多年来通过激进代理人网络在地区构成的威胁。率领美国代表团的副总统J·D·万斯因此要求伊朗停止资助哈马斯、真主党和也门胡塞武装。在他所称的华盛顿“最终且最佳提议”中，美方要求海峡恢复免费通行。
J·D·万斯副总统4月12日在伊斯兰堡与巴基斯坦和伊朗代表会谈后举行新闻发布会。
杰奎琳·马丁/ pooled/法新社/盖蒂图片社
从美国的角度来看，这些都是合理的战略诉求。但人们不禁要问，这场战争是否真的提升了特朗普达成这些目标的能力。
伊朗拒绝美国的诉求，也让人质疑华盛顿在六周战争中到底取得了哪些战略成果。自美国在开战前中断和谈以来，伊朗的立场几乎没有变化，如今它还多了一张新的王牌——对霍尔木兹海峡的控制权。
伊朗指责美国缺乏灵活性，其拒不妥协的态度似乎让特朗普除了考虑进一步军事行动外别无选择。伊朗谈判代表、议长穆罕默德·巴盖尔·加利巴夫表示，应由美国回应他所谓的建设性提议。“美国已经理解我们的逻辑和原则，现在是时候看看他们能否赢得我们的信任了，”他说道。
出于经济、政治和战略等多方面原因，美国政府正面临越来越大的快速结束战争的压力——这一因素很可能也是推动封锁海峡计划的考量之一。
伊朗的 defiant 态度再次挑战了美国政府的说法：即这场战争是一场不折不扣的胜利，数千次导弹和空袭摧毁了德黑兰的海军和防空系统；重创了其军事力量；并铲除了伊斯兰共和国的多名高级领导层成员。
J·D·万斯副总统4月11日在伊斯兰堡会见巴基斯坦总理谢巴兹·谢里夫。
杰奎琳·马丁/ pooled/美联社
特朗普原本希望这场战争能够快速且决定性地结束，但如今战事却遥遥无期，看不到尽头。经济损失巨大且还在不断扩大——这对特朗普不断下滑的支持率来说无疑是坏消息。与此同时，特朗普对美国欧洲盟友事先未获通报且不愿参战的愤怒，也加剧了北约内部的新分裂。现在判断这场战争是否会重塑伊朗政治格局还为时过早。但这个曾残酷镇压民众的政权，在顶住美国和以色列的军事打击后存活了下来，并且仍在威胁美国在海湾地区的盟友。
拟议中的封锁行动是特朗普最新一次试图推翻“总统发动对外战争容易，结束战争却很难”这一至理名言的尝试。但即便该计划奏效，其高昂的代价也将暴露出特朗普未能预见的诸多后果。
Trump’s strait blockade risks another serious blow to the global economy
2026-04-13 12:01 AM ET / CNN
Analysis by Stephen Collinson
President Donald Trump talks to the media on the South Lawn of the White House on April 11.
Jose Luis Magana/AP
The failure of US-Iran peace talks leaves President Donald Trump with a set of unattractive options that are unlikely to hand him a decisive or swift victory.
But he’s doubling down with a plan to impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz that comes with its own risks of serious and unforeseen consequences.
The administration’s depiction of weekend talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, suggested it was hoping to win capitulation from Iran on demands including a promise not to seek nuclear weapons and the reopening of the strait.
But Iran is refusing to cede this critical leverage and doesn’t accept the US claim that it’s already lost the war. The result is a deadlock that challenges one of Trump’s core beliefs: that US military might will bend all adversaries to his will.
So Trump is now under pressure to narrow Iran’s options.
He told reporters Sunday evening that he ordered the US military to enforce a blockade on the strait from 10 a.m. ET. The idea is to strangle Iran’s oil revenues and collapse its economy. The measure is also designed to frustrate Tehran’s plan to raise revenues by charging safe passage for oil tankers in the vital waterway.
Trump’s plan could certainly be disastrous for Iran’s economy, already devastated by years of sanctions and the new war. But it also threatens to worsen the war’s economic impact on the US and global economies.
Oil prices immediately spiked again on news of the blockade, with the price of a barrel of Brent crude rising 8% to $104.
This reaction will test Trump’s resolve, since Americans are already frustrated by high prices for food and housing and are now paying more than $4 a gallon on average for gasoline. Rising oil prices helped spike the inflation rate up to 3.3% in March from 2.4% in February and are having a negative impact throughout the economy.
The Callisto tanker sits anchored in the Strait of Hormuz in Muscat, Oman, on March 10.
Benoit Tessier/Reuters
The president explained the blockade on Fox News earlier Sunday. But he did little to clarify how it would work. “It’s called all in, all out. Yes, it’s called all in and all out,” Trump said.
“There will be a time when we will have them all come in and all come out,” Trump added, referring to hundreds of oil tankers stranded in the Persian Gulf. “But it won’t be a percentage. It won’t be a friend of yours, like a country that’s your ally or a country that’s your friend. It’s all or nothing. And that won’t be in too long a distance.”
US Central Command said Sunday the blockade would be enforced on all traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports. “CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports,” it said in a post on X.
A lot of bad options
The United States and Iran each left their marathon talks in Pakistan accusing the other of inflexibility. The impasse immediately raised doubts about the durability of a two-week ceasefire that began last week. But Trump told reporters Sunday that it was “holding well.”
The plan to blockade the strait will bring its own risks. But Trump’s other options are bad.
The president could recommit to the relentless US and Israeli bombing campaign, but it’s unclear whether redoubling an onslaught that has already devastated Iran’s military and industrial complex will make its leaders more likely to cave. Should Trump follow through on a chilling threat to take out power plants and bridges, he could hurt the civilians he once vowed to help and risk Iranian reprisals against US allies, raising the war’s already-steep costs.
And any attempt by Trump to leave the region after declaring US military goals complete would be undermined by Iran’s stranglehold on the strait — a vital global oil exporting choke point — and its retention of its enriched uranium stockpile.
Trump has no choice but to try to open the strait
Former US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley said Trump had no choice but to try to open the strait. “If we did not do anything to stop them, not only would they have leverage; they would have even more money than they had before to funnel money to their proxies, even more money to buy supplies for ballistic missiles and continue their nuclear production,” Haley told CNN’s Dana Bash on “State of the Union” on Sunday.
The Port of Kharg Island Oil Terminal in Iran on March 12, 2017.
Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images/File
The president’s idea of blockading the strait might be a way of testing Iran’s control over the waterway without the high-risk move of committing US ground troops to attack shore-based missile facilities, which could lead to American casualties. But the operation might also make US ships more vulnerable to Iranian attacks.
Blocking the strait would also raise the risks of diplomatic confrontations with large powers such as China if the US sought to halt any of their vessels transiting the strait. Trump has invested substantial political capital in his summit next month with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, which has already been postponed once because of the war.
A US blockade halting all ships that agreed to Iran’s terms of passage might also harm allies like Japan and those in Europe that Trump has already alienated with the war and which rely heavily on Gulf oil supplies.
Small wonder that some Trump critics doubt his latest attempt to wrest control of the war will work, seeing it as another example of erratic leadership featuring shifting rationales for the conflict, grave threats and climb downs.
“I don’t understand how blockading the strait is going to somehow push the Iranians into opening it. I don’t get the connection there,” Sen. Mark Warner, a Virginia Democrat, said on “State of the Union.”
White House explains how the Iran talks foundered
The White House on Sunday listed the US demands that Iran refused to accept. They included an end to all uranium enrichment and the dismantling of nuclear facilities damaged during US raids last year. To forestall future development of nuclear programs, the administration wants to ensure the retrieval of more than 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium believed to be buried in the wreckage of Iran’s nuclear facilities.
US and Israeli war aims also include thwarting of Iran’s regional threat, which it’s imposed for years through a network of proxy radical groups. Vice President JD Vance, leading the US delegation, therefore asked the Iranians to end funding for Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen. In what he said was Washington’s “final and best offer,” he included a demand for the opening of the strait for toll-free navigation.
Vice President JD Vance speaks during a news conference after meeting with representatives from Pakistan and Iran in Islamabad on April 12.
Jacquelyn Martin/Pool/AFP/Getty Images
From a US perspective, these are all reasonable strategic demands. But it’s arguable whether the war has advanced Trump’s capacity to deliver them.
Iran’s rejection of US demands raises the question of exactly what Washington has achieved strategically in six weeks of war. Iran’s position is little changed since talks the US broke off before launching the conflict. And it now has a new point of leverage — its control of the strait.
Iran is accusing Washington of being inflexible, and its intransigence seems to give Trump no option but to consider more military action. Iranian negotiator and Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said it’s up to the US to respond to what he described as constructive proposals. “America understood our logic and principles, and now it is time for it to decide whether it can gain our trust or not,” he said.
For economic and political reasons, as well as strategic ones, the administration is under increasing pressure to end the war quickly — a factor likely playing into the calculations of a blockade of the strait.
Iran’s defiance is again challenging administration claims that the war is an unqualified success and that thousands of missile and air strikes have destroyed Tehran’s navy and air defenses; exacted a harsh toll on its military; and eliminated layers of the Islamic Republic’s senior leadership.
Vice President JD Vance meets with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on April 11 in Islamabad.
Jacquelyn Martin/Pool/AP
A war that Trump had hoped would be quick and decisive is dragging on with no end in sight. The economic damage is huge and growing — bad news for the president’s eroded approval ratings. Trump’s fury that US European allies refused to join a war they were not informed about in advance and did not want has meanwhile caused new splits in NATO. It is too soon to make definitive judgments on whether the war will reshape Iranian politics. But a regime that brutally represses its people has survived after defying US and Israeli military might, and it continues to threaten US Gulf allies.
The proposed blockade is Trump’s latest attempt to disprove the maxim that foreign wars are easy for presidents to start and hard for them to stop. But even if it works, it will come with heavy costs that reflect the many consequences Trump failed to foresee.