2026-04-21T04:00:55.087Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
斯蒂芬·科林森 分析
发布于 2026年4月21日，美国东部时间凌晨00:00
唐纳德·特朗普 中东 社交媒体
4月18日周六，唐纳德·特朗普总统在白宫椭圆形办公室。
朱莉娅·德马雷·尼克辛森/美联社
唐纳德·特朗普连日来一直在独自斡旋伊朗和平协议。
这位总统使出了他在企业家手册《交易的艺术》里的所有招数，试图制造谈判筹码、编造终局场景，迫使伊朗屈服。
但他全天候铺天盖地的网络言论和对随时待命的记者的表态，似乎违背了他自己定下的一条重要原则。
“在谈判中最糟糕的事，就是看起来急于达成协议，”特朗普在1987年出版的这本推崇投机钻营、同时也为自己造势的书中写道。
未来几天美伊高级谈判代表或将在巴基斯坦举行会谈，而这位总司令正险些踏入这一陷阱。
他不停地谈论达成协议的可能性。但由于他并未与伊朗领导人直接谈判，他的言行反而可能让谈判前景恶化。
上周晚些时候，他在Truth Social上宣布协议已经达成，声称伊朗已经同意了美国提出的所有要求：交出核库存、开放霍尔木兹海峡、停止支持恐怖组织。
当德黑兰方面否认这一说法时，他又威胁称，除非伊朗接受美国的条件，否则将“投放大量炸弹”，这让他看起来更像是一门心思只想达成协议。
通常情况下，比如在霍尔木兹海峡问题上，特朗普的言论会损害其可信度，因为这些说法明显与事实不符。源源不断的矛盾信息也让外界更加认为他没有任何战略规划，只是在即兴发挥——这也是外交政策专家在本轮冲突中对他的一贯批评。
他也丝毫没有对伊朗谈判代表或德黑兰幕后实权人物隐藏自己的意图，而这些幕后人士不像特朗普那样高调，始终保持沉默。
尽管人们已经记不清常态外交是什么样子，但各国总统在关键谈判前通常不会如此行事。罗纳德·里根在与苏联领导人米哈伊尔·戈尔巴乔夫举行峰会前，从未在1980年代的电视网络上大肆宣扬尚未达成的协议。
那么特朗普为何要如此行事？他不断主导舆论的需求，是否会破坏谈判？
在这张照片示意图中，2024年3月25日，伊利诺伊州芝加哥，人们在手机上展示特朗普的社交媒体平台Truth Social。
斯科特·奥尔森/盖蒂图片社/档案照片
社交媒体的力量
特朗普在首届任期内就发现，单条推文就能让他绕过媒体直接向世界发声。“我过去常盯着它看，”他说，“我发布一条精彩内容时，它就像火箭一样蹿红。”
因此，在这位总统看来，人人手中的智能手机是一股极其强大的力量。他不需要召开新闻发布会就能向世界喊话，只需发帖即可。这或许是第一场通过社交媒体开展的战争：特朗普在网上宣布空袭战果、警告伊朗文明可能“覆灭”，并宣称将实现和平。
社交媒体与特朗普堪称天作之合。他借助这一工具牢牢抓住了美国国民的心理，这种影响力已持续十余年。而且他无论昼夜都毫无顾忌地使用社交媒体。你可以删除社交应用，但全球媒体会立刻转发Truth Social上的每一条帖子。
在《交易的艺术》中，这个毫不掩饰地总想成为焦点的人坦言，驱使他的更多是对达成交易的追求，而非交易本身的实际内容。
对特朗普而言，外交几乎不是一个需要暗中进行的幕后过程。他与朝鲜领导人金正恩的峰会并未取得多少实质性成果，但让特朗普登上了全球头条。去年他为俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京举行的奢华欢迎仪式——陈列着战斗机、铺着红地毯的盛会——也未能在结束乌克兰战争上取得进展，但却制造了绝佳的拍照机会。
本周拟在伊斯兰堡举行的会谈，缺少了特朗普和平谈判剧本的一个关键要素：他不会亲自到场。这或许是出于礼仪考量，因为伊朗谈判代表的级别远低于国家元首，也可能是出于安全原因。不过特朗普上周对记者表示，如果协议签署，他“可能会到场”。
助手警告特朗普的发帖行为有损谈判
但达成协议依然希望渺茫——中东地区周末出现紧张局势后，无人能确定会谈是否能如期举行。
尽管特朗普态度乐观，但伊朗在这场对峙中也拥有巨大筹码。该国拒绝允许商船通过霍尔木兹海峡，足以挟持全球经济，且不太可能轻易让步。
即便按照大多数和平谈判的标准，双方之间的不信任程度之深也适得其反。近50年的激烈冲突包括针对美国人的恐怖袭击，以及美国军舰击落伊朗民用客机。特朗普在首届任期内暗杀了伊朗极具标志性的军事领导人，并于去年轰炸了其核设施。
4月17日，唐纳德·特朗普总统乘坐海军陆战队一号直升机抵达后，穿过南草坪走向白宫。
塞缪尔·科拉姆/盖蒂图片社
特朗普的社交媒体闹剧可能只会让局势雪上加霜。
特朗普的一些官员私下向CNN的阿莱娜·特里恩和凯文·利普塔克承认，他的公开言论有损谈判，并指出双方此前本就存在严重的不信任。特朗普上周谎称伊朗已同意美国几乎所有要求——包括交出浓缩铀——这让在国内处境艰难的谈判代表们十分不满。
《华尔街日报》周末的一篇文章也提到，特朗普可能会妨碍自己的谈判目标。该报称，助手们不让特朗普进入获取伊朗美军飞行员大胆营救行动最新消息的房间，因为“他们认为他的急躁毫无益处”。
和平谈判，尤其是涉及浓缩铀、离心机和核查等复杂议题的谈判，极为敏感。通常需要通过幕后渠道进行数月甚至数年的磋商。双方都需要感受到自己取得了胜利，才能跨过终点线。
施压恐吓很少奏效。在社交媒体上大肆宣扬谈判进程只会让事情更难推进。特朗普周一表示，他不太可能延长本周即将到期的伊朗停火协议。这或许是在试图加大施压力度，但也可能给伊朗方面提供了不出席会谈的借口。考虑到特朗普社交媒体上的言论反复无常，他接下来可能会发布完全相反的内容。
伊朗谈判代表、议会议长穆罕默德·巴盖尔·加利巴夫仍在批评特朗普的做法。他在X平台上发帖指责特朗普试图“将这个谈判桌——在他的想象中——变成投降桌，或是为重新发动战争找借口”。
但如果“交易的艺术”奏效，特朗普 somehow 解除了伊朗对世界其他国家的威胁，他将取得现代其他总统都未能实现的胜利。有一点可以肯定：他会是第一个向全世界宣布这一消息的人。
Trump’s craving for the spotlight risks Iran deal hopes
2026-04-21T04:00:55.087Z / CNN
Analysis by Stephen Collinson
PUBLISHED Apr 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Donald Trump The Middle East Social media
President Donald Trump in the Oval Office of the White House on Saturday, April 18.
Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP
Donald Trump has spent days negotiating peace in Iran — with himself.
The president has rolled out every trick in his entrepreneur’s manual “The Art of the Deal” in trying to create leverage, spin endgame scenarios and force Iran to capitulate.
But his round-the-clock avalanche of online outbursts and quotes to reporters who have him on speed dial seem to ignore one of his big rules.
“The worst thing you can possibly do in a deal is seem desperate to make it,” Trump wrote in the 1987 book that lionized wheeler-dealing and himself.
The commander in chief risks walking into that very trap ahead of possible talks in Pakistan between top US and Iranian negotiators in the coming days.
He can’t stop talking about the possibility of a deal. But since he’s not at the table with Iran’s leaders, he might be worsening the prospects.
Late last week, he announced on Truth Social that it was already done, claiming Iran had agreed to every US demand on handing over nuclear stocks, opening the Strait of Hormuz and halting support for terror groups.
When Tehran pushed back, his threats to send “lots of bombs” unless it agreed to US terms made him look even more fixated on a deal.
Often, as in the case of the strait, Trump’s statements undermine his credibility because they are demonstrably not true. The constant stream of contradictory information also bolsters impressions that he’s got no strategy and is winging it — a constant critique from foreign policy experts during the war.
And he’s hardly offering a poker face to Iran’s negotiators — or the real powers behind them back in Tehran, who, unlike Trump, are in the shadows and silent.
While it’s hard to remember what normal used to feel like, presidents don’t usually conduct themselves in such a manner before critical talks. Ronald Reagan never warmed up for summits with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev by blitzing 1980s TV networks hailing agreements before they even met.
So why is Trump behaving this way? And does his need to constantly be driving the narrative risk scuppering the talks?
In this photo illustration Donald Trump’s social media platform Truth Social is seen on a cellphone on March 25, 2024, in Chicago, Illinois.
Scott Olson/Getty Images/File
The power of social media
Trump observed during his first term that a single tweet gave him extraordinary power to bypass the media and talk to the world. “I used to watch it,” he said. “It’d be like a rocket ship when I put out a beauty.”
It follows, then, that the president sees the small device always in every citizen’s hands as a source of incredible power. He doesn’t need to call a news conference to talk to the world. He can just post. This must be the first war conducted by social media: Trump has announced results of air strikes, warned Iranian civilization might “die” and proclaimed peace online.
Social media and Trump were made for each other. He used it to grab a hold on America’s national psyche that has lasted more than a decade. And he shows no restraint in using it, day or night. You can delete social media apps. But every Truth Social post will be instantly transmitted by global media anyway.
In “The Art of the Deal,” a man who unapologetically seeks always to be at the center of the action admits that what drives him is more the quest for a deal than what is actually in it.
And diplomacy for Trump is hardly a whispered backstage process. His summits with North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un didn’t produce much, but they put Trump in the global spotlight. His lavish welcome to Russian President Vladimir Putin last year — a pageant of parked fighter jets and red carpets — was a bust on ending the war in Ukraine. But it made for a great photo-op.
This week’s proposed talks in Islamabad lack one key ingredient of the Trump peace playbook: He will not be there. This may be for reasons of protocol, since Iran’s negotiators will be well below head-of-state level, or it may be down to security. Trump, however, told reporters last week he “might go” if a deal is signed.
Aides warn Trump’s posts are detrimental to talks
But an agreement remains a long shot — in talks that no one can be certain will take place after a weekend of tension in the Middle East.
For all Trump’s bullishness, Iran also has great leverage in the showdown. Its refusal to allow commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has allowed it to hold the global economy hostage, and it’s unlikely to give up easily.
And even by the standards of most peace negotiations, distrust is deep and counterproductive between the sides. Nearly 50 years of bitter conflict have included terror attacks on Americans and the downing of an Iranian civilian airliner by a US warship. Trump assassinated Iran’s talismanic military chief in his first term and bombed its nuclear plants last year.
President Donald Trump walks across the South Lawn toward the White House after landing in Marine One on April 17.
Samuel Corum/Getty Images
Trump’s social media antics may be only making things worse.
Some of Trump’s officials privately acknowledged to CNN’s Alayna Treene and Kevin Liptak that his public commentary has been detrimental to talks, noting that prior sense of deep distrust. The president’s false claims last week that the Iran had agreed to almost all US demands — including on handing over enriched uranium — were not appreciated by negotiators who are on thin ice at home.
The sense that Trump might be getting in the way of his own aspirations was also raised by a Wall Street Journal article over the weekend. The paper said he was kept out of a room where aides were getting updates on the daring rescue of a US airman in Iran because “they believed his impatience wouldn’t be helpful.”
Peace negotiations, especially those involving the complex issues of enrichment, centrifuges and monitoring, are deeply sensitive. They often require back-channeling and months or even years of discussions. Each side needs to feel they have claimed vindication to get over the line.
Bullying rarely works. Blaring about the process on social media makes it even harder. Trump on Monday said that he was unlikely to extend a ceasefire with Iran due to expire this week. This might have been an attempt to turn the screws, but it also risked giving the Iranian side an excuse not to show. Still, given Trump’s wildly gyrating social media record, he might post the complete opposite next.
Iranian negotiator and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is still faulting Trump’s methods. In a post on X, he accused the president of seeking “to turn this negotiating table— in his own imagination— into a table of surrender or to justify renewed warmongering.”
But if the “art of the deal” works and somehow, Trump ends Iran’s threat to the rest of the world, he’ll have a win that no other modern president managed. One thing’s for sure: He’ll be the first to tell the world.