摩根·菲利普斯 | 福克斯新闻
发布于 2026年2月27日 美国东部时间上午7:07
唐纳德·特朗普总统警告称，伊朗正致力于制造”很快就能抵达美利坚合众国”的导弹，这加剧了人们对一个武器计划的担忧——该计划已使美国在中东的部队处于其射程之内。
官员们表示，伊朗目前尚未拥有能够打击美国本土的导弹。但它现有的弹道导弹 arsenal 可以瞄准海湾地区的主要美国军事设施，美国官员称，这一问题已成为正在进行的核谈判中的一个关键症结。
以下是伊朗目前能够打击的目标，以及它距离打击美国有多近。
伊朗目前能够打击的目标
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一张地图显示了从伊朗发射的弹道导弹的射程范围。(福克斯新闻)
西方国防分析家普遍认为，伊朗拥有中东地区规模最大的弹道导弹部队。其 arsenal 主要由短程和中程弹道导弹组成，射程可达约2000公里——约1200英里。
这一射程使美国在海湾地区的广泛军事基础设施网络处于打击范围内。
在这一范围内的设施包括：
- 卡塔尔的乌代德空军基地，美国中央司令部的前进总部。
- 巴林的美国海军支持活动基地，美国第五舰队的所在地。
- 科威特的阿里夫贾恩军营，一个主要的陆军后勤和指挥中心。
- 科威特的阿里·萨利姆空军基地，美国空军部队使用。
- 沙特阿拉伯的苏丹王子空军基地。
- 阿拉伯联合酋长国的达夫拉空军基地。
- 约旦的穆瓦法克·萨尔蒂空军基地，驻有美国飞机。
近几个月来，美军已从一些地区据点撤军，包括2026年初将伊拉克的阿萨德空军基地交还给伊拉克控制。但主要的海湾设施仍然在伊朗现有导弹库存的射程范围内。
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2025年6月16日，以色列特拉维夫上空，以色列防空系统拦截伊朗导弹。(MATAN GOLAN/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)
多名美国官员告诉福克斯新闻，在紧张局势升级的情况下，巴林美国海军第五舰队总部的人员配备已减少到”执行关键任务”的水平。另一名美国官员对这一说法提出异议，称尚未发布人员或家属的撤离命令。
与此同时，美国最近几天已向该地区及其周边地区增派了大量海军和空中资产。
亚伯拉罕·林肯号航母打击群正在阿拉伯海与多艘驱逐舰一起行动，另外几艘驱逐舰部署在地中海东部、红海和波斯湾。
杰拉尔德·R·福特号航母打击群也正前往该地区。根据福克斯新闻最近的一次军事简报，美国空军战斗机——包括F-15、F-16、F-35和A-10——驻扎在约旦、沙特阿拉伯和巴林，由空中加油机、预警飞机和监视平台提供支持。
伊朗此前曾表现出使用弹道导弹打击美国目标的意愿。
2020年1月，在美国空袭杀死伊斯兰革命卫队将军卡西姆·苏莱曼尼之后，伊朗向伊拉克的美国阵地发射了十多枚弹道导弹。后来，数十名美国军人被诊断出患有创伤性脑损伤。
这一事件凸显了在伊朗导弹 arsenal 射程内的前沿部署部队的脆弱性。
伊朗能打到欧洲吗？
大多数公开的伊朗导弹系统的最大射程约为2000公里。
根据发射地点的不同，这可能使东南欧的部分地区——包括希腊、保加利亚和罗马尼亚——处于潜在的打击范围内。美国在欧洲部署了约8万名士兵，包括在这三个国家。
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西方国防分析家普遍认为，伊朗拥有中东地区规模最大的弹道导弹部队。(Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)
要深入欧洲，需要比伊朗公开展示的更先进的远程系统。
伊朗能打到美国吗？
伊朗目前尚未部署能够打击美国本土的洲际弹道导弹(ICBM)。
要到达美国东海岸，导弹需要约10000公里的射程——远远超出伊朗已知的作战能力。
然而，美国情报机构警告称，伊朗的太空运载火箭计划可能为未来的远程导弹提供技术基础。
在最近的一份威胁概述中，美国国防情报局指出，伊朗”拥有可以用来发展具有军事可行性的洲际弹道导弹的太空运载火箭，如果德黑兰决定追求这一能力的话，到2035年”。
这一评估认为，任何潜在的伊朗洲际导弹能力大约在十年内实现——且取决于德黑兰的政治决定。
美国官员和国防分析家特别指出了伊朗最近的太空发射，包括 Zuljanah 等使用固体燃料推进的火箭。固体燃料发动机可以比液体燃料火箭更快地储存和发射——这一特点对军用弹道导弹也很重要。
太空运载火箭和远程弹道导弹依赖类似的多级火箭技术。分析家表示，如果德黑兰选择将该技术用于军事用途，伊朗太空计划的进展可能会缩短洲际射程导弹的研发路径。
然而，就目前而言，伊朗尚未部署可操作的洲际弹道导弹，美国本土仍然不在其现有弹道导弹 arsenal 的射程之内。
美国导弹防御系统——有能力但有限
美国依赖分层导弹防御系统——包括末段高空区域防御系统(THAAD)、爱国者和舰载拦截器——来保护部队和盟友免受中东地区弹道导弹威胁。
这些系统在技术上是有能力的，但拦截器库存是有限的。
2025年6月伊朗-以色列导弹交换期间，据报道，美军发射了150多枚THAAD拦截器——大约是五角大楼迄今为止资助的总数的四分之一，根据国防分析家。
经济因素也凸显了这种不平衡：开源估计显示，伊朗的短程弹道导弹每枚成本可能在几十万低美元，而先进的美国拦截器如THAAD每枚导弹约1200万美元或更多。
精确的库存水平是机密的。但追踪五角大楼采购数据的专家警告说，补充先进拦截器可能需要数年时间，这意味着即使美国的防御仍然有效，长期高强度的导弹交换也可能耗尽库存。
导弹计划使谈判复杂化
弹道导弹问题也成为华盛顿和德黑兰之间持续外交努力中的一个关键断层线。
国务卿马尔科·卢比奥表示，伊朗拒绝就其弹道导弹计划的限制进行谈判是”一个大问题”，这表明政府将该 arsenal 视为长期区域安全的核心。
虽然目前的谈判主要集中在伊朗的核计划和铀浓缩活动上，但美国官员认为，运载工具——包括弹道导弹——不能与潜在核武器的担忧分开。
然而，伊朗官员坚称，他们的导弹计划是防御性的，不属于以核为重点的谈判的一部分。
随着外交谈判的继续，战略现实仍然清晰：伊朗目前无法用弹道导弹打击美国本土。但美国在中东的部队仍然在德黑兰现有 arsenal 的射程内——未来能力仍是情报关注的问题。
US intelligence agencies assess Iran could develop intercontinental ballistic missile capability by 2035 using space launch technology
By Morgan Phillips | Fox News
Published February 27, 2026 7:07am EST
President Donald Trump warned that Iran is working to build missiles that could “soon reach the United States of America,” elevating concerns about a weapons program that already places U.S. forces across the Middle East within range.
Iran does not currently possess a missile capable of striking the U.S. homeland, officials say. But its existing ballistic missile arsenal can target major American military installations in the Gulf, and U.S. officials say the issue has emerged as a key sticking point in ongoing nuclear negotiations.
Here’s what Iran can hit now — and how close it is to reaching the U.S.
What Iran can hit right now
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A map shows what is within range of ballistic missiles fired from Iran.(Fox News)
Iran is widely assessed by Western defense analysts to operate the largest ballistic missile force in the Middle East. Its arsenal consists primarily of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles with ranges of up to roughly 2,000 kilometers — about 1,200 miles.
That range places a broad network of U.S. military infrastructure across the Gulf within reach.
Among the installations inside that envelope:
- Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, forward headquarters for U.S. Central Command.
- Naval Support Activity Bahrain, home to the U.S. 5th Fleet.
- Camp Arifjan in Kuwait, a major Army logistics and command hub.
- Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait, used by U.S. Air Force units.
- Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia.
- Al Dhafra Air Base in the United Arab Emirates.
- Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, which hosts U.S. aircraft.
U.S. forces have drawn down from some regional positions in recent months, including the transfer of Al Asad Air Base in Iraq back to Iraqi control earlier in 2026. But major Gulf installations remain within the range envelope of Iran’s current missile inventory.
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Israel’s air defense targets Iranian missiles in the sky of Tel Aviv in Israel, June 16, 2025.(MATAN GOLAN/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)
Multiple U.S. officials told Fox News that staffing at the Navy’s 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain has been reduced to “mission critical” levels amid heightened tensions. A separate U.S. official disputed that characterization, saying no ordered departure of personnel or dependents has been issued.
At the same time, the U.S. has surged significant naval and air assets into and around the region in recent days.
The USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group is operating in the Arabian Sea alongside multiple destroyers, while additional destroyers are positioned in the eastern Mediterranean, Red Sea and Persian Gulf.
The USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group is also headed toward the region. U.S. Air Force fighter aircraft — including F-15s, F-16s, F-35s and A-10s — are based across Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, supported by aerial refueling tankers, early warning aircraft and surveillance platforms, according to a recent Fox News military briefing.
Iran has demonstrated its willingness to use ballistic missiles against U.S. targets before.
In January 2020, following the U.S. strike that killed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Gen. Qassem Soleimani, Iran launched more than a dozen ballistic missiles at U.S. positions in Iraq. Dozens of American service members were later diagnosed with traumatic brain injuries.
That episode underscored the vulnerability of forward-deployed forces within reach of Iran’s missile arsenal.
Can Iran reach Europe?
Most publicly known Iranian missile systems are assessed to have maximum ranges of around 2,000 kilometers.
Depending on launch location, that could place parts of southeastern Europe — including Greece, Bulgaria and Romania — within potential reach. The U.S. has some 80,000 troops stationed across Europe, including in all three of these countries.
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Iran is widely assessed by Western defense analysts to operate the largest ballistic missile force in the Middle East.(Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)
Reaching deeper into Europe would require longer-range systems than Iran has publicly demonstrated as operational.
Can Iran hit the US?
Iran does not currently field an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of striking the U.S. homeland.
To reach the U.S. East Coast, a missile would need a range of roughly 10,000 kilometers — far beyond Iran’s known operational capability.
However, U.S. intelligence agencies have warned that Iran’s space launch vehicle program could provide the technological foundation for a future long-range missile.
In a recent threat overview, the Defense Intelligence Agency stated that Iran “has space launch vehicles it could use to develop a militarily-viable ICBM by 2035 should Tehran decide to pursue the capability.”
That assessment places any potential Iranian intercontinental missile capability roughly a decade away — and contingent on a political decision by Tehran.
U.S. officials and defense analysts have pointed in particular to Iran’s recent space launches, including rockets such as the Zuljanah, which use solid-fuel propulsion. Solid-fuel motors can be stored and launched more quickly than liquid-fueled rockets — a feature that is also important for military ballistic missiles.
Space launch vehicles and long-range ballistic missiles rely on similar multi-stage rocket technology. Analysts say advances in Iran’s space program could shorten the pathway to an intercontinental-range missile if Tehran chose to adapt that technology for military use.
For now, however, Iran has not deployed an operational ICBM, and the U.S. homeland remains outside the reach of its current ballistic missile arsenal.
US missile defenses — capable but finite
The U.S. relies on layered missile defense systems — including Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), Patriot and ship-based interceptors — to protect forces and allies from ballistic missile threats across the Middle East.
These systems are technically capable, but interceptor inventories are finite.
During the June 2025 Iran-Israel missile exchange, U.S. forces reportedly fired more than 150 THAAD interceptors — roughly a quarter of the total the Pentagon had funded to date, according to defense analysts.
The economics also highlight the imbalance: open-source estimates suggest Iranian short-range ballistic missiles can cost in the low hundreds of thousands of dollars apiece, while advanced U.S. interceptors such as THAAD run roughly $12 million or more per missile.
Precise inventory levels are classified. But experts who track Pentagon procurement data warn that replenishing advanced interceptors can take years, meaning a prolonged, high-intensity missile exchange could strain stockpiles even if U.S. defenses remain effective.
Missile program complicates negotiations
The ballistic missile issue has also emerged as a key fault line in ongoing diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said Iran’s refusal to negotiate limits on its ballistic missile program is “a big problem,” signaling that the administration views the arsenal as central to long-term regional security.
While current negotiations are focused primarily on Iran’s nuclear program and uranium enrichment activities, U.S. officials have argued that delivery systems — including ballistic missiles — cannot be separated from concerns about a potential nuclear weapon.
Iranian officials, however, have insisted their missile program is defensive in nature and not subject to negotiation as part of nuclear-focused talks.
As diplomacy continues, the strategic reality remains clear: Iran cannot currently strike the U.S. homeland with a ballistic missile. But U.S. forces across the Middle East remain within range of Tehran’s existing arsenal — and future capabilities remain a subject of intelligence concern.