2026年2月27日 下午5:41 UTC / 路透社
作者:安·萨菲尔
[图片] 美国加利福尼亚州帕洛阿尔托斯坦福大学胡佛研究所的货币政策会议上,前美联储理事凯文·沃什发言。路透社/安·萨菲尔/档案照片
- 摘要
- 美国参议院将决定是否确认沃什为下一任美联储主席
- 鲍威尔担任美联储主席的任期将于5月15日结束
- 司法部对鲍威尔的调查使沃什的提名复杂化
- 特朗普希望美联储主席能大幅降息
2月27日(路透社)- 唐纳德·特朗普总统尚未正式提名凯文·沃什接替杰罗姆·鲍威尔担任美联储主席,这一延误虽然并非前所未闻,但也并不典型,并且在美联储面临政治压力担忧的迷雾中,为这一过程增添了不确定性。
[图片] 显示2010年以来美联储理事提名宣布到向参议院提交正式文件之间天数的柱状图。
特朗普在四周前提名了前美联储理事沃什。自2010年以来,只有两位美联储主席和央行理事会其他职位的候选人在白宫宣布提名与向参议院提交开启正式确认程序的文件之间,间隔超过了四周。
沃什提名被延长的原因尚不清楚,尽管共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯承诺,只要司法部对鲍威尔关于美联储在华盛顿翻新大楼的国会证词的调查仍在进行,他就会阻止任何美联储提名。
蒂利斯表示,这项调查是荒谬的,是特朗普政府的一种恐吓形式。特朗普政府毫不掩饰对鲍威尔未能按照其期望的速度和幅度降息的不满。
预测公司LH Meyer的分析师德里克·唐表示:”沃什提名没有任何进展,这确实让我感到奇怪。” “白宫似乎没有更接近克服蒂利斯的阻挠:即除非鲍威尔调查结束,否则这位参议员不会让任何美联储提名人通过参议院银行委员会。”
白宫发言人库什·德赛表示:”白宫继续与参议院合作,迅速确认凯文·沃什为我们的下一任美联储主席。” 他补充说,沃什”完全有资格恢复美联储决策的能力和信心”。
美联储不受短期政治考虑的影响,以及能够无视特定总统偏好来设定利率,被广泛认为是其控制通胀和引导经济健康发展能力的核心要素。
财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示,共和党控制的参议院银行委员会已同意,一旦沃什正式提名,就会推进确认听证会。该小组的共和党成员,包括蒂利斯,都表示认为沃什非常有资格,是该职位的合适人选。
但如果没有蒂利斯的投票来推进沃什的提名以提交给参议院全体议员审议,该委员会微弱的共和党多数派没有权力推翻统一的民主党反对。
沃什和美联储发言人拒绝置评。
鲍威尔调查
鲍威尔在1月份披露了司法部的调查,称这是特朗普政府”对美联储降息的威胁和持续压力”的一部分。
《华尔街日报》周四报道称,央行已要求法官撤销调查中的政府传票。美联储拒绝对此报道置评。
调查并不是特朗普长期以来希望安装一位支持降息的美联储主席以取代鲍威尔的唯一障碍。
时钟滴答
距离5月15日鲍威尔任期结束还有11周,这一时间比美联储现任大多数理事从提名到参议院确认所需的时间要短。
这个时间并不十分紧迫,正如参议院去年秋天所示,当时他们在总统提名后不到两周就确认了时任特朗普经济顾问斯蒂芬·米伦担任美联储理事。
但沃什确认程序的长期延误将使提名人——以及央行——陷入尴尬的不确定状态,因为时间正在向美联储6月16-17日会议逼近,这是讨论降息(即使不是实施)的最早预期时间。
美联储的人事变动?
预计特朗普将提名沃什填补目前由米伦担任的职位,米伦的任期已于1月31日到期,但他可能会在继任者被参议院确认前继续留任。这一调换将用一位降息支持者取代另一位,使得特朗普任命的成员在七人制美联储理事会中失去多数席位。
总统正以史无前例的努力解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克,称其在抵押贷款申请中存在不实陈述。库克由前总统乔·拜登任命,否认有不当行为,并正在最高法院审理的案件中抗争被解雇。鲍威尔在1月份出席了口头辩论,称这是”美联储113年历史上最重要的法律案件”,因为其对央行独立性的影响。
鲍威尔会留任吗?
如果鲍威尔愿意,他至少可以留任到2028年1月31日担任美联储理事。他拒绝说明在其央行主席任期结束后是否会离开董事会,而他的几乎所有前任都这样做了。
打破这一先例将是一个非凡的举动,将标志着鲍威尔对美联储继续独立于政府运作能力的深切担忧。
这种担忧的原因包括:特朗普将支持降息作为他提名任何取代鲍威尔的人的明确条件,以及总统政府试图通过司法部调查等前所未有的手段向央行领导人施压。
但留任几乎肯定会遭到特朗普政府和其他人的批评,被视为阻挠总统任命新美联储理事的党派行为。
领导权问题
即使鲍威尔继续担任理事,几乎毫无疑问,美联储的联邦公开市场委员会将遵守机构规范,并选举沃什领导政策制定小组。
但这将使沃什面临艰巨的任务:说服分歧的委员会支持他希望的降息,同时还要应对与曾经担任他职位的人分享决策桌的复杂性。
报道:安·萨菲尔;补充报道:大卫·摩根和安德里亚·沙拉尔;编辑:安娜·德莱弗和保罗·西马奥
Trump’s Fed chief nominee faces hurdles as clock ticks on Powell’s term
February 27, 2026 5:41 PM UTC / Reuters
By Ann Saphir
节点运行失败
Former U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh speaks during a monetary policy conference at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution in Palo Alto, California, U.S. May 9, 2025. REUTERS/Ann Saphir/File Photo
- Summary
- US Senate will decide whether to confirm Warsh as next Fed chief
- Powell’s term as head of US central bank ends on May 15
- Department of Justice investigation into Powell complicates Warsh nomination
- Trump wants a Fed chief who will deliver big interest rate cuts
Feb 27 (Reuters) – President Donald Trump has yet to formally nominate Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as head of the Federal Reserve, a delay that while not unprecedented is also not typical and adds to uncertainty in a process clouded by concerns about political pressure on the U.S. central bank.
节点运行失败
A bar chart showing the number of days between nomination announcement and official nomination to the senate of the Fed’s governors since 2010.
Trump named Warsh, a former Fed governor, as his nominee four weeks ago. Since 2010 only two nominees for the Fed chief job and other seats on the central bank’s Board of Governors have experienced a gap longer than four weeks between the White House announcement and the filing of paperwork to the Senate that kicks off the official confirmation process.
The reason for the extended wait in Warsh’s case is unclear, though Republican Senator Thom Tillis has promised to block any Fed nomination as long as a Department of Justice investigation into Powell regarding his testimony to Congress about central bank building renovations in Washington remains open.
Tillis says the probe is frivolous and a form of intimidation by the Trump administration, which has made no secret of its frustration with Powell for not cutting interest rates as quickly or deeply as it would like.
“It does strike me as odd that there’s been no forward movement on the Warsh nomination,” said Derek Tang, an analyst with forecasting firm LH Meyer. “The White House seems no closer to overcoming the Tillis block: that the senator won’t let any nominee for the Fed get past the Senate Banking Committee unless and until the Powell probe goes away.”
“The White House continues to work with the Senate to swiftly confirm Kevin Warsh as our next Federal Reserve chairman,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said, adding that Warsh is “eminently qualified to restore competence and confidence in Fed decision-making.”
The Fed’s insulation from short-term political considerations and the ability to set interest rates without regard to the preferences of a given president is widely considered essential to its ability to keep inflation under control and steer the economy to a healthy footing.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said the Republican-controlled Senate Banking Committee has agreed to move forward with a confirmation hearing once Warsh is formally nominated. The panel’s Republican members, including Tillis, have said they see Warsh as well qualified and a good pick for the job.
But without Tillis’ vote to advance Warsh’s nomination to consideration by the full Senate, the committee’s slim Republican majority does not have the power to override unified Democratic opposition.
Warsh and Fed spokespersons declined to comment.
THE POWELL PROBE
Powell disclosed the DOJ’s probe in January, describing it as part of the Trump administration’s “threats and ongoing pressure” on the Fed to cut rates.
The central bank has asked a judge to quash the government’s subpoenas in the probe, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday. The Fed declined to comment on the report.
The probe is not the only hurdle to Trump’s long-held goal of installing a rate-cut-friendly Fed chief in place of Powell.
TICKING CLOCK
The 11 weeks until the end of Powell’s term on May 15 is less time than it took for most of the Fed’s current governors to go from their nominations to Senate confirmation.
The timing is by no means overly tight, as the Senate showed last fall when it moved to confirm then-Trump economic adviser Stephen Miran as a Fed governor less than two weeks after the president nominated him.
But a long delay on the Warsh confirmation would leave the nominee – and the central bank – in uncomfortable limbo as the clock ticks toward the central bank’s June 16-17 meeting, the earliest expected time for a serious debate on, if not delivery of, a rate cut.
MUSICAL CHAIRS AT THE FED?
Trump is expected to nominate Warsh to fill a seat currently occupied by Miran, whose term expired on January 31 but who may remain in his role until his successor is confirmed by the Senate. The switch would replace one rate-cut advocate with another, leaving Trump-appointees one seat short of a majority on the seven-member Fed board.
The president has made an unprecedented effort to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook for what he says were misrepresentations on her mortgage applications. Cook, who was appointed by former President Joe Biden, denies wrongdoing and is fighting her removal in a case that is before the Supreme Court. Powell attended oral arguments in January, calling it “the most important legal case in the Fed’s 113-year history” because of its implications for the central bank’s independence.
COULD POWELL STAY PUT?
Powell could, if he chooses, stay on as a Fed governor at least until January 31, 2028. He has declined to say if he will leave the board when his term as head of the central bank ends, as nearly all his predecessors have done.
Bucking that precedent would be an extraordinary move that would signal Powell’s abiding concern about the Fed’s ability to continue to operate independently from the administration.
Reasons for such concern range from the fact that Trump made support for rate cuts an explicit condition for anyone he nominated to replace Powell, and the unprecedented means by which the president’s administration has sought to pressure central bank leaders, including through the DOJ probe.
But staying on would almost certainly draw criticism from the Trump administration and others as a partisan bid to thwart the president’s prerogative to name a new Fed governor.
LEADERSHIP QUESTIONS
Even if Powell did remain as a governor, there’s little doubt that the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee would stick with institutional norms and elect Warsh to lead the policy-setting panel.
But it would leave Warsh, who already faces the daunting task of convincing a divided committee to support the rate cuts he says he wants – contending with the complications of sharing the policymaking table with the person who used to have his job.
Reporting by Ann Saphir; Additional reporting by David Morgan and Andrea Shalal; Editing by Anna Driver and Paul Simao