2026年2月28日 16:23 UTC（路透社）
美国华盛顿特区白宫，2026年2月3日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普坐在办公桌后，其身后帽子上写着”美国重返”。（路透社/伊芙琳·霍克斯泰因/档案照片 [购买许可权，新标签页打开]）
- 摘要
- 特朗普的伊朗行动充斥风险与未知
- 通过空中力量实现”政权更迭”的目标被视为行不通
- 战争的走向可能定义特朗普的外交政策遗产
- 情报报告与特朗普宣称的伊朗导弹威胁美国的说法相矛盾
华盛顿，2月28日（路透社）- 唐纳德·特朗普对伊朗发动大规模袭击，抓住了一个决定其遗产的关键时刻，以展示他准备动用美国原始军事力量的决心。但此举也使他在总统任期内进行了最大的外交政策豪赌，充满了风险与未知。
周六，特朗普与以色列联手卷入对伊朗的战争，对美国公众几乎未作解释，这可能成为自阿富汗和伊拉克战争以来美国最大规模的军事行动。
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特朗普已从上个月对委内瑞拉闪电突袭等快速、有限的行动偏好转向专家警告可能演变为长期冲突的方向，这一冲突有升级为吞噬石油资源丰富的中东地区的区域大火的风险。
这位承诺避免”愚蠢战争”的总统，还设定了在德黑兰实现政权更迭的艰巨目标，他认为空袭可以煽动民众起义推翻伊朗统治者。
这一结果在其他冲突中，没有地面武装力量参与的情况下，从未通过外部空中力量直接实现过，而大多数分析人士怀疑这次在伊朗能否成功。
“大多数美国人周六早上醒来会疑惑，我们为何与伊朗开战，目标是什么，以及为何美国在中东的基地遭到袭击，”丹尼尔·夏皮罗说，他曾是五角大楼高级官员、美国驻以色列大使，现任职于华盛顿大西洋理事会智库。
特朗普对伊朗的执着已成为外交政策的最鲜明例子，包括他扩大使用军事力量，在其第二任期的前13个月中，外交政策优先于国内议题，如民调显示大多数美国人更关注的生活成本问题，常常被军事问题所掩盖。
他的助手们几周来一直私下敦促他更多关注选民的经济担忧，强调11月中期选举前的政治危险，特朗普所在的共和党有失去参众两院之一或两者的风险。
特朗普在其Truth Social平台发布的黎明前简短视频中，将五角大楼称为”史诗狂怒行动”，仅泛泛提及现在与这个美国数十年来一直交锋却避免全面敌对的国家开战的原因。
他坚称将结束他所谓的德黑兰弹道导弹威胁（大多数专家称这并不构成对美国的威胁），并给伊朗人一个推翻其统治者的机会。
特朗普表示，为实现目标，美军将摧毁伊朗大部分军事力量，并剥夺其拥有核武器的能力。伊朗否认其核计划具有军事目的。
外交希望破灭
特朗普突然诉诸武力，动用了近几周在该地区集结的庞大美军资产，这似乎已彻底关上了目前与伊朗外交的大门。周四在日内瓦举行的最新一轮核谈判未能取得突破。
一些特朗普助手此前曾暗示，他可能会轰炸德黑兰使其重返谈判桌，以迫使伊朗做出重大让步。
相反，伊朗周六回应，向以色列和几个托管美国基地的海湾阿拉伯产油国发射导弹。德黑兰还警告称，重要石油航线霍尔木兹海峡已被封锁。
特朗普在视频中强调伊朗弹道和核计划构成的威胁紧迫性，让人回想起2003年小布什总统为对伊拉克发动战争所做的陈述，后来证明这是基于有缺陷的情报和虚假指控。
据熟悉评估的消息人士透露，特朗普在周二国情咨文演讲中宣称伊朗将很快拥有可打击美国的导弹，这一说法未得到美国情报报告的支持，专家也对其助手最近声称的德黑兰能够快速推进核能力的说法表示怀疑。
随着周六的袭击，特朗普最初在1月份为支持面临暴力镇压的街头抗议者而威胁要打击伊朗的行动，也消除了所有疑虑——他现在部分寻求的目标是德黑兰的政权更迭。
但分析人士质疑，特朗普排除部署美军地面部队的情况下，是否有能推翻伊朗长期由神职人员主导的政府的战略，该政府在严厉制裁和周期性大规模抗议面前表现出韧性。
地图显示空袭在伊朗的打击地点。几个主要城市受到打击。
第一波打击主要针对伊朗官员。伊朗电视台称，尚未露面的最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊（Ayatollah Ali Khamenei）即将发表讲话。但以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡表示，有许多迹象表明哈梅内伊”已不在”，但未明确确认其死亡。
三位知情人士称，国防部长阿米尔·纳西尔扎德和革命卫队指挥官穆罕默德·帕克普尔在以色列袭击中丧生。
分析人士称，即使空袭成功消灭高层领导，也可能产生意想不到的后果——在拥有9300万人口的庞大国家播下混乱，甚至可能导致强硬派军方政府，这对西方可能更不妥协，对本国人民更具压迫性。
“他想改变政府，”华盛顿战略与国际研究中心智库的乔恩·阿尔特曼说，”但仅靠空袭很难改变政府，也很难通过空袭改变伊朗人的想法。”
现任职于大西洋理事会的前美国高级官员泰森·巴克说，特朗普呼吁伊朗人民起义的做法也不太可能奏效。
“他们通过说’站起来推翻你的政府，我们支持你’，实际上是在暴露这些可怜的伊朗人民，”巴克说。
军事风险承受力
一位美国官员告诉路透社，特朗普自第二任期开始以来，对军事行动的渴望不断增长，在对伊朗发动打击前获得了简报，其中既传达了美军重大伤亡的风险，也吹嘘了中东可能转向有利于美国利益的前景。
特朗普似乎受到了6月美军轰炸伊朗主要核设施的鼓舞，他认为这是重大成功，以及1月突袭并抓获委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗的行动，这让美国对这个石油资源丰富的OPEC国家拥有了相当大的影响力。
他可能通过频繁威胁军事行动同时在该地区集结庞大海军力量，而使自己陷入不得不采取行动的境地，这种力量无法在该地区无限期维持。
分析人士认为伊朗是比委内瑞拉更强大、装备更好的对手，尽管6月美以联合空袭严重削弱了其防空和导弹能力。
“伊朗是更强大的军事力量，即使是现在在海湾地区的反应，他们也愿意跨越以前不愿跨越的红线，”卡内基国际和平基金会的妮可·格拉夫斯基说。
但被认为亲以色列且对伊朗持强硬立场的非营利研究机构”捍卫民主基金会”首席执行官马克·杜波维茨表示，德黑兰处于如此脆弱的状态，特朗普值得冒风险以遏制德黑兰的核能力。
无论伊朗政府是否倒台，严重削弱伊朗的核和导弹计划都可能成为特朗普的胜利。
报道：马特·斯佩塔尼克、安德里亚·沙拉尔、伊德里斯·阿里；补充报道：贾勒特·伦肖，马特·斯佩塔尼克撰写；编辑：罗斯·科尔文、彼得·格拉夫和辛西娅·奥斯特曼
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Trump’s Iran strikes mark his biggest foreign policy gamble
February 28, 2026 4:23 PM UTC / Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump sits at his desk, behind a hat that reads “America is back” at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., February 3, 2026. REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein/File Photo [Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab]
- Summary
- Trump’s Iran campaign is fraught with risks, unknowns
- Trump’s goal of “regime change” via air power seen as unworkable
- How war unfolds could help define Trump’s foreign policy legacy
- Intelligence reports contradict Trump’s claim of Iran missile threat to U.S.
WASHINGTON, Feb 28 (Reuters) – With his large-scale attack on Iran, Donald Trump has seized a legacy-defining moment to demonstrate his readiness to exercise raw U.S. military power. But in doing so, he is also taking the biggest foreign policy gamble of his presidency, one fraught with risks and unknowns.
Trump joined with Israel on Saturday to plunge into war against Iran, providing little explanation to the American public for what could become the biggest U.S. military campaign since the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.
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Trump has pivoted away from a preference for swift, limited operations like last month’s lightning raid in Venezuela to what experts warn could be a more protracted conflict with Iran that risks escalating into a regional conflagration engulfing the oil-rich Middle East.
The president, who came to office promising to avoid “stupid wars,” has also set out a daunting objective of regime change in Tehran, pushing the idea that air strikes can incite a popular uprising to oust Iran’s rulers.
It is an outcome that outside air power has never directly achieved in other conflicts without the involvement of some kind of armed force on the ground, and which most analysts doubt will succeed this time in Iran.
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“Most Americans will wake up Saturday morning and wonder why we are at war with Iran, what is the goal, and why U.S. bases in the Middle East are under attack,” said Daniel Shapiro, a former senior Pentagon official and U.S. ambassador to Israel who is now at the Atlantic Council think-tank in Washington.
Trump’s fixation on Iran has emerged as the starkest example yet of how foreign policy, including his expanded use of military might, has topped his agenda in the first 13 months of his second term, often overshadowing domestic issues like the cost of living that public opinion polls show are much higher priorities for most Americans.
His own aides have been privately urging him for weeks to focus more on voters’ economic worries, highlighting the political dangers ahead of November’s midterm elections in which Trump’s Republican Party is at risk of losing one or both chambers of Congress.
The brief pre-dawn video that Trump posted on his Truth Social platform announcing what the Pentagon has dubbed “Operation Epic Fury” provided only broad reasons for going to war now with a country the U.S. has jousted with for decades while averting all-out hostilities.
He insisted he would end what he said was Tehran’s ballistic missile threat – which most experts say does not pose a threat to the U.S. – and give Iranians a chance to topple their rulers.
Trump said that to accomplish his goals U.S. forces would lay waste to much of Iran’s military as well as deny it the ability to have a nuclear weapon. Iran denies that its nuclear program has military aims.
DASHING HOPES FOR DIPLOMACY
Trump’s sudden resort to force, using huge U.S. military assets built up in the region in recent weeks, appeared all but certain to close the door for now on diplomacy with Iran. The latest round of nuclear talks in Geneva on Thursday failed to achieve a breakthrough.
Some Trump aides have previously suggested that he might be able to bomb Tehran back to the negotiating table to force deep concessions.
Instead, Iran responded on Saturday by launching missiles at Israel and several Gulf Arab oil-producing states that host American bases. Tehran also issued a warning that the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil route, had been closed.
Trump’s focus in the video on the urgency of the threat posed by Iran’s ballistic and nuclear programs had echoes of the case President George W. Bush made for war against Iraq in 2003, which later turned out to be based on faulty intelligence and false claims.
Trump’s assertion in Tuesday’s State of the Union address that Iran will soon have a missile that can hit the United States is not backed by U.S. intelligence reports, according to sources familiar with the assessments, and experts have also cast doubt on his aides’ recent claims of Tehran’s ability to quickly advance its nuclear capabilities.
With Saturday’s strikes, Trump, who had originally threatened to strike Iran in January in support of street protesters facing a violent crackdown, also erased all doubt that part of what he seeks now is regime change in Tehran.
But analysts question whether Trump, who has ruled out deploying U.S. troops on the ground, has a strategy that could unseat Iran’s longtime cleric-dominated government, which has proved resilient in the face of crippling sanctions and periodic mass protests.
Map showing where the airstrikes hit in Iran. Several major cities were hit.
The first wave of strikes mainly targeted Iranian officials. Iranian television said Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – yet to be heard from on Saturday – was due to give a speech soon. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said there were many signs indicating Khamenei “is no longer”, without explicitly confirming his death.
Defense Minister Amir Nasirzadeh and Revolutionary Guards commander Mohammed Pakpour were killed in Israeli attacks, three sources familiar with the matter said.
Even if the strikes do succeed in eliminating the top leadership, that could have the unintended consequences of sowing chaos across a sprawling nation of 93 million or even lead to a hardline military-run government that might be even more intransigent with the West and oppressive to its people, analysts said.
“He wants to change the government,” said Jon Alterman at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think-tank in Washington. “But it’s hard to change the government from the air. It’s hard to change the minds of Iranians through the air.”
Tyson Barker, a former senior U.S. official who is now with the Atlantic Council, said Trump’s call for the Iranian people to rise up was also not likely to work.
“They’re really exposing these poor Iranian people by saying, ‘Stand up and overthrow your government. We got your back’,” Barker said.
APPETITE FOR MILITARY RISK
Trump, whose appetite for military operations has grown since the start of his second term, received briefings ahead of the Iran strikes that delivered blunt assessments about the risk of major U.S. casualties but also touted the prospect of a shift in the Middle East in favor of U.S. interests, a U.S. official told Reuters.
Trump appears to have been emboldened by U.S. bombing of Iran’s main nuclear facilities in June, which he considered a major success, and the in-and-out raid that captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in January and has given the U.S. considerable sway over the OPEC country’s vast oil reserves.
He may have forced his own hand with Iran with his frequent threats of military action while building up a huge naval force that he could not sustain indefinitely in the region.
Analysts see Iran as a much tougher, better-armed foe than Venezuela, even though its air defenses and missile capabilities were severely degraded in joint U.S.-Israeli strikes in June.
“Iran is a more formidable military power, and even what the response is right now in the Gulf – they’re willing to cross lines that they weren’t willing to cross before,” said Nicole Grajewski, with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
But Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, a nonprofit research institute considered pro-Israel and hawkish on Iran, said Tehran is in such a weakened state that it is worth Trump taking the risks to curb Tehran’s nuclear capabilities.
Whether or not the Iranian government falls, he said severely degrading Iran’s nuclear and missile programs could be a victory for Trump.
Reporting By Matt Spetalnick, Andrea Shalal and Idrees Ali; additional reporting by Jarrett Renshaw, writing by Matt Spetalnick Editing by Ross Colvin, Peter Graff and Cynthia Osterman
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