2026-06-05T12:36:47.562Z / https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/us-posts-another-month-strong-job-gains-may-unemployment-rate-steady-43-2026-06-05/
- 摘要
- 5月非农就业人数增加17.2万人
- 3月和4月就业增长数据上调9.3万人
- 失业率连续第三个月维持在4.3%不变
华盛顿6月5日路透电——美国经济5月实现连续第三个月强劲就业增长，印证了劳动力市场在去年低迷后正重拾动能，同时也为美联储在中东战争推高通胀的背景下维持利率不变提供了更多空间。
周五劳工部发布的备受关注的就业报告描绘了就业市场的乐观图景。美国经济3月和4月的就业人数较此前预估增加9.3万人，失业率连续第三个月维持在4.3%。尽管金融市场上调了12月加息的概率，但经济学家表示，货币政策收紧的门槛仍然很高。
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经济学家表示，以税收和进口关税退税形式实施的财政缓冲，缓解了美国支持的对伊朗战争带来的影响——这场战争推高油价，进而刺激了通胀。自2025年第二季度以来，企业利润有所增长，使得企业无需大规模裁员。不过，经济学家警告称，如果战争持续，劳动力市场将面临风险。
“这份报告可能会让美联储确认劳动力市场处于稳定状态，使得通胀成为美联储6月会议前政策制定的唯一焦点和驱动因素，”FHN Financial高级经济学家索菲亚·基尼-莱德曼（Sophia Kearney-Lederman）说道。
劳工部劳工统计局表示，上月非农就业人数增加17.2万人，4月的数据经向上修正后为增加17.9万人。路透社调查的经济学家此前预测，在4月公布的就业增长11.5万人的基础上，5月非农就业人数将增加8.5万人。
就业增长的预估区间在5万至12.5万人之间。3月的就业人数统计被上调2.9万人，至21.4万人。经济学家认为，美国经济每月需要创造0至5万个就业岗位才能跟上劳动年龄人口的增长。由于移民管制打击了劳动力规模，这一所谓的收支平衡率有所下降，限制了失业率的上升。
去年特朗普政府实施全面关税政策带来的不确定性，曾阻碍了劳动力市场，企业因此对扩大招聘持谨慎态度。尽管企业仍在招聘，但就业增长的大部分改善可能得益于处于历史低位的裁员率。
金融市场上调加息概率
美国最高法院今年2月裁定关税违宪，部分企业已申请退税。大额所得税退税让消费者能够维持消费支出，不过这主要由高收入家庭贡献了大部分力量。
连续强劲的就业增长表明，劳动力市场可能正打破“慢聘慢裁”的平衡状态。根据LSEG的估算，美国利率期货市场目前计入了约65%的美联储12月加息概率，此前这一概率为48%。美国央行的基准隔夜利率目前处于3.50%-3.75%区间。
美元兑一篮子货币升值。美国国债收益率上升，对利率敏感的两年期国债收益率达到2025年2月以来的最高水平。美国股市开盘走低。
上月就业增长的主要推动力来自休闲和酒店业，新增就业7万人，远高于过去12个月平均每月1.4万人的增幅。餐厅和酒吧行业新增就业4.8万人。这些企业可能在为部分由美国主办的国际足联世界杯足球赛提前招聘人手。
地方政府就业新增5.5万个岗位。
医疗行业新增3.5万个岗位，其中大部分来自门诊服务领域。社会救助、采矿、采石以及油气开采行业的就业人数也有所增加。但金融活动相关行业就业减少2.2万个岗位，自2025年5月近期峰值以来已累计减少10.7万个岗位。保险承保及相关活动以及商业银行业均出现就业岗位流失。
年度工资增速从4月的3.6%放缓至3.4%。美国政府上周公布的数据显示，4月通胀增速达到三年来最快水平。经通胀调整后的家庭可支配收入已连续三个月下滑，储蓄率处于四年来低点，经济学家表示这可能会削弱消费者支出。
“没有令人信服的理由预期美联储今年会降息，”全国互助保险公司首席经济学家凯西·博斯蒂扬西克（Kathy Bostjancic）表示，“现在预测加息还为时过早。若要美联储考虑加息，能源价格上涨必须推动其他商品和服务价格上涨，摆脱直接影响范围，并打破迄今管控良好的债券市场通胀预期。”
卢西亚·穆蒂卡尼（Lucia Mutikani）报道；安德烈亚·里奇（Andrea Ricci）、千住千津（Chizu Nomiyama）和保罗·西马奥（Paul Simao）编辑
本报守则：路透社汤森路透信任原则。
US job market notches third straight month of solid growth
2026-06-05T12:36:47.562Z / https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/us-posts-another-month-strong-job-gains-may-unemployment-rate-steady-43-2026-06-05/
- Summary
- Nonfarm payrolls increase by 172,000 jobs in May
- March and April payroll gains revised up by 93,000
- Unemployment rate unchanged at 4.3% for third straight month
WASHINGTON, June 5 (Reuters) – The U.S. economy posted a third straight month of strong job gains in May, confirming the labor market was gaining traction after stumbling last year and giving the Federal Reserve more room to keep interest rates unchanged amid rising inflation due to the war in the Middle East.
The closely watched employment report from the Labor Department on Friday painted an upbeat picture of the jobs market. The economy added 93,000 more jobs in March and April than previously estimated and the unemployment rate held at 4.3% for a third consecutive month. While financial markets boosted the chances of an interest rate hike in December, economists said the bar remains high for monetary policy tightening.
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Economists say fiscal stimulus, in the form of tax and import tariff refunds, has cushioned the impact of the U.S.-backed war with Iran, which has stoked inflation through a surge in oil prices. Corporate profits have increased since the second quarter of 2025, allowing businesses to refrain from large-scale layoffs. Economists, however, warned of risks to the labor market if the war persists.
“This report is likely to confirm to the Fed that the labor market is in a stable place, allowing inflation to be the only focus and driver of Fed policy heading into the June meeting,” said Sophia Kearney-Lederman, a senior economist at FHN Financial.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000 jobs last month after rising by an upwardly revised 179,000 in April, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls would increase by 85,000 jobs after a previously reported rise of 115,000 in April.
Estimates for job growth ranged from 50,000 to 125,000. The payrolls count for March was revised up by 29,000 jobs to 214,000. Economists estimated the economy needs to create between zero and 50,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population. The so-called break-even rate has dropped because of an immigration crackdown that has reduced the labor force, limiting the rise in the unemployment rate.
The labor market had been hampered by uncertainty over the Trump administration’s implementation last year of sweeping tariffs, which made businesses cautious about boosting hiring. Though businesses are hiring, much of the improvement in job growth is likely due to historically low layoffs.
FINANCIAL MARKETS RAISE ODDS OF RATE HIKE
The U.S. Supreme Court in February struck down the tariffs, and some businesses have filed for refunds. Large income tax refunds have allowed consumers to keep spending, though upper-income households are doing most of the heavy lifting.
The run of strong employment gains suggests the labor market could be breaking out of its “slow-hire, slow-fire” equilibrium. U.S. interest rate futures priced in about a 65% chance that the Fed would raise rates in December, compared with 48% earlier, according to LSEG estimates. The U.S. central bank’s benchmark overnight interest rate is currently in the 3.50%-3.75% range.
The dollar gained versus a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the interest rate-sensitive two-year note hitting its highest level since February 2025. U.S. stocks opened lower.
The leisure and hospitality sector led the broad increase in employment last month, with 70,000 jobs added, well above the average monthly gain of 14,000 over the past 12 months. Payrolls at restaurants and bars rose by 48,000 jobs. These establishments could be hiring in preparation for the FIFA World Cup soccer tournament, which is being partly hosted by the U.S.
Local government employment increased by 55,000 jobs.
The healthcare sector added 35,000 jobs, most of them in ambulatory services. There were also increases in payrolls in the social assistance, mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction industries. But employment tied to financial activities dropped by 22,000 jobs and is down by 107,000 since a recent peak in May 2025. There were employment losses for insurance carriers and related activities as well as commercial banking.
Annual wage growth slowed to 3.4% from 3.6% in April. Inflation increased at its fastest pace in three years in April, the government reported last week. Income at the disposal of households after adjusting for inflation has dropped for three straight months and the saving rate is at a four-year low, which economists said could undercut consumer spending.
“There is no compelling reason to expect the Fed to cut rates this year,” said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide. “At this point it is premature to anticipate a rate increase. For the Fed to consider a rate hike, the jump in energy prices would need to push up prices of other goods and services away from the immediate direct impact and dislodge the so-far well-contained bond market inflation expectations.”
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci, Chizu Nomiyama and Paul Simao
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