2026年6月5日 06:45:19 美东夏令时 / 福克斯新闻
穆迪分析公司估计，这场冲突已让美国家庭在三个月内每户平均损失约750美元
作者：摩根·菲利普斯 福克斯新闻
发布于2026年6月5日 上午6:45 美东夏令时
前退役将军杰克·基恩：伊朗在耍花招，欲将冲突拖至中期选举
福克斯新闻高级战略分析师、退役将军杰克·基恩在《汉尼蒂秀》中谈及伊朗的战略，即推迟核协议谈判至2026年中期选举。
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在特朗普政府权衡对伊朗采取外交与军事施压之际，美国国内的政治时钟已开始倒计时。
据Kpler石油分析师马特·史密斯称，即便因伊朗袭击而基本停运的全球石油咽喉要道霍尔木兹海峡立即重新开放，由于受困油轮、库存高企和石油基础设施受损等物流瓶颈，石油运输恢复仍需数月时间，这将导致全球能源市场正常化的时间推迟至11月3日中期选举前后。
“届时要到今年第四季度，局势才能恢复正常。”史密斯说道。
共和党面临的问题是，这场冲突的经济影响是否会比冲突本身持续更久。尽管白宫仍在寻求与伊朗达成外交解决方案，但战略分析师和能源专家表示，全球能源市场的 disruption 可能在任何协议达成后仍持续许久，让选民在中期选举前的数月里都要承受高企的生活成本。
特朗普证实与内塔尼亚胡发生“疯狂”冲突，外界对其推动暂停打击真主党恐怖分子的质疑升温
经济影响已经显现。
美国汽车协会（AAA）数据显示，周四美国全国普通汽油均价为每加仑4.241美元，高于一年前的3.144美元，涨幅近35%。
穆迪分析公司估计，在过去三个月里，这场冲突已让美国民众因燃油、运输及相关成本上涨损失约1000亿美元，即每户约750美元。
在一些人看来，这场冲突已经持续了足够久，足以产生持久的政治影响。
“我们已经过了那个时间节点。”共和党战略学家道格·海在接受福克斯新闻数字频道采访时表示。
白宫驳斥了这场冲突可能成为长期政治负担的说法，辩称任何经济 disruption 都将是暂时的。
“特朗普总统始终专注于保障美国民众安全、降低工薪家庭的生活成本，并让我们的国家比以往任何时候都更强大。”白宫发言人泰勒·罗杰斯在接受福克斯新闻数字频道采访时说道。“总统和他的能源团队预计到了短期市场波动，并已向美国民众公开通报，同时实施了积极计划以减轻任何影响。”
罗杰斯表示，特朗普“绝不会允许伊朗拥有核武器”，并辩称“当总统成功结束这场冲突时，汽油价格将回落至多年来的低位，全球能源市场也将在长期内更加稳定”。
即便霍尔木兹海峡立即重新开放，由于物流瓶颈，石油运输恢复仍需数月。（阿米尔侯赛因·霍尔古伊/伊朗伊斯兰共和国通讯社 via 美联社）
“我们曾被承诺这将是一场短期行动，还 repeatedly 被告知会在24至48小时内结束。”他继续说道，“这已经不再是一过性的小问题了。”
其他人则认为剩余窗口狭窄。
“我认为局势确实需要在7月4日前得到解决。”共和党战略学家约翰·菲赫里在接受福克斯新闻数字频道采访时表示，“如果到7月4日还不能解决，我认为经济将没有时间在各个层面真正复苏。”
菲赫里设定的7月4日基准，恰逢白宫希望将公众注意力转向美国建国250周年庆祝活动启动的时期。
本届政府时而暗示协议即将达成，时而警告军事行动仍有可能。最近，特朗普对谈判进度表示不满，称谈判变得“非常无聊”，并表示他“一点也不在乎”谈判因伊朗拖延而破裂，同时预测油价将在不久后“像石头一样暴跌”，并坚称协议仍有达成可能。
但无论谈判结果如何，战略分析师们认为，如果共和党希望避免将冲突的余波带入中期选举，经济缓解措施必须尽快到位。
共和党此次中期选举需要捍卫众议院的微弱多数席位，许多分析师认为这一席位易受针对执政党传统中期反弹效应的冲击。参议院局势对共和党更为有利，但北卡罗来纳州、缅因州、俄亥俄州和德克萨斯州等州的多场竞选预计将受到密切关注。
菲赫里认为，这场冲突的政治影响最终与铀库存、浓缩水平或任何最终协议的细节关系不大，而更多取决于选民是否感到经济安全。
美国汽车协会数据显示，周四美国全国普通汽油均价为每加仑4.241美元，高于一年前的3.144美元，涨幅近35%。（乔娜·卡辛格/彭博社 via 盖蒂图片社）
“他们根本不在乎这个。”当被问及潜在协议的实质内容时，菲赫里说道，“在选民心中，他们并不担心遥远的问题。他们担心的是国内的经济状况。”
特朗普威胁要“炸毁”阿曼——为何这个小型海湾王国夹在华盛顿和伊朗之间
“乔治·H·W·布什将萨达姆·侯赛因赶出科威特，其支持率一度达到91%左右，但他在下次选举中落败了。”菲赫里说道。
即便未来几周取得外交突破，美国人可能也不会立即看到加油站的价格回落。
史密斯表示，由于美国国内的石油产量，该国一直免受最严重的供应 disruption 影响，但美国正日益成为受中东石油供应中断影响地区的能源供应国。
最近，特朗普对谈判进度表示不满，称谈判变得“非常无聊”，并表示他“一点也不在乎”谈判因伊朗拖延而破裂，同时预测油价将在不久后“像石头一样暴跌”，并坚称协议仍有达成可能。（美联社照片/保罗·桑西亚 资料图）
“由于我们正面临稀缺问题，美国国内的油价很可能会继续走高。”史密斯说道。
他表示，随着亚洲国家替代失去的中东原油，欧洲寻求喷气燃料的替代来源，海外买家正越来越多地争夺美国能源出口。
“美国以外的国家正在推高美国的油价。”史密斯说道。
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对共和党而言，令人担忧的是，经济余波可能比冲突本身持续更久。
“即便明天一切都结束了，油价也不会立即恢复正常，而且即便或当油价恢复正常时，选民也不会得到他们已经支付的高额账单的退款。”海说道。
Republicans face ticking midterm clock as Iran fallout keeps pressure on gas prices
2026-06-05 06:45:19 EDT / Fox News
Moody’s Analytics estimates the conflict has cost American households roughly $750 each over three months
By Morgan Phillips Fox News
Published June 5, 2026 6:45am EDT
Gen Jack Keane: The Iranians are playing games, want to stretch conflict to midterms
Fox News senior strategic analyst Ret. Gen. Jack Keane discusses Iran’s strategy to delay nuclear deal negotiations until the 2026 midterm elections on ‘Hannity.’
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As the Trump administration weighs diplomacy and military pressure against Iran, a political clock is ticking at home.
Even if the Strait of Hormuz — the global oil choke point largely shuttered since the conflict with Iran due to Iranian attacks — reopened immediately, it could take months for oil flows to return due to logistical bottlenecks involving trapped tankers, swollen inventories and damaged oil infrastructure, according to Kpler oil analyst Matt Smith, pushing normalization of global energy markets closer to the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
“It’s then going to take until the fourth quarter of the year for things to return to normal,” Smith said.
The question facing Republicans is whether the economic consequences of the conflict will outlast the conflict itself. While the White House continues to pursue a diplomatic resolution with Iran, strategists and energy analysts say disruptions to global energy markets could linger long after any agreement is reached, leaving voters with months of elevated costs heading into the midterms.
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The economic effects are already visible.
The national average price of regular gasoline stood at $4.241 per gallon Thursday, according to AAA, up from $3.144 a year earlier — an increase of nearly 35%.
Moody’s Analytics estimates the conflict has cost American households roughly $100 billion throughout the past three months, or about $750 per household, through higher fuel, transportation and related costs.
To some, the conflict already has gone on long enough to create lasting political consequences.
“There is a timeline and we’ve already passed it,” GOP strategist Doug Heye told Fox News Digital.
The White House rejected the notion that the conflict could become a long-term political liability, arguing that any economic disruption would be temporary.
“President Trump remains laser-focused on keeping the American people safe, lowering costs for working families, and making our country greater than ever before,” White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers told Fox News Digital. “The President and his energy team anticipated short-term market disruptions, communicated them openly to the American people, and implemented an aggressive plan to mitigate any impacts.”
Rogers said Trump “will never allow Iran to possess a nuclear weapon” and argued that “when the President forces this conflict to a successful end, gas prices will drop back to multi-year lows and global energy markets will be much more stable in the long term.”
Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened immediately, it could take months for oil flows to return due to logistical bottlenecks.(Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA via AP)
“We were promised that this would be a short operation, and repeatedly told it would all be over in 24–48 hours,” he went on. “This is no longer a blip.”
Others see a narrow window remaining.
“I think that it really needs to be resolved by July Fourth,” Republican strategist John Feehery told Fox News Digital. “If it’s not resolved by July Fourth, I don’t think the economy is going to have time to really kind of get going on all levels.”
Feehery’s July 4 benchmark coincides with a period in which the White House hopes to shift public attention toward the kickoff of America’s 250th anniversary celebrations.
The administration has alternated between signaling that a deal is near and warning that military action remains possible. More recently, Trump has expressed frustration with the pace of negotiations, saying they had become “very boring” and that he “couldn’t care less” if the talks collapsed because Iran was taking too long, while also predicting that oil prices would “be dropping like a rock” in the near future and maintaining that a deal remains possible.
But regardless of how the negotiations conclude, strategists argue that economic relief must arrive soon if Republicans hope to avoid carrying the conflict’s fallout into the midterms.
Republicans enter the midterms defending a narrow House majority that many analysts view as vulnerable to the traditional midterm backlash against a president’s party. The Senate landscape is more favorable to Republicans, though several races in states such as North Carolina, Maine, Ohio and Texas are expected to be closely watched.
Feehery argued that the political impact of the conflict ultimately will have less to do with uranium stockpiles, enrichment levels or the details of any final agreement than with whether voters feel economically secure.
According to AAA, the national average price of regular gasoline stood at $4.241 per gallon Thursday, up from $3.144 a year earlier — an increase of nearly 35%.(Chona Kasinger/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
“They don’t care about that,” Feehery said when asked about the substance of a potential deal. “From the voters’ minds, they’re not worried about far-flung issues. They’re worried about the economy at home.”
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“George H. W. Bush kicked Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait and his approval ratings were around 91%, and he lost the next election,” Feehery said.
Even if a diplomatic breakthrough comes in the coming weeks, Americans may not see immediate relief at the pump.
Smith said the U.S. has been insulated from the worst supply disruptions because of its own domestic production, but the country is increasingly serving as an energy supplier to regions cut off from Middle Eastern flows.
More recently, Trump has expressed frustration with the pace of negotiations, saying they had become “very boring” and that he “couldn’t care less” if the talks collapsed because Iran was taking too long, while also predicting that oil prices would “be dropping like a rock” in the near future and maintaining that a deal remains possible.(AP Photo/Paul Sancya, File)
“We’re likely going to be seeing higher prices coming through in the U.S. because of that because, you know, we’re getting to a scarcity issue,” Smith said.
As Asian countries replace lost Middle Eastern crude and Europe seeks alternative sources of jet fuel, overseas buyers are increasingly competing for American energy exports, he said.
“Countries outside of the U.S. are bidding up U.S. prices,” Smith said.
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For Republicans, the concern is that the economic fallout could outlast the conflict itself.
“Even if this were all over tomorrow, prices won’t immediately come back to normal and if or when they do, voters don’t get a refund from the high bills they’ve already paid,” Heye said.