分析： 艾伦·布莱克
2小时前
发布时间： 2026年2月28日，美国东部时间中午12:06
美联社
众所周知，唐纳德·特朗普总统在其第二任期的外交政策更趋军事化。
特朗普曾扬言要吞并巴拿马运河、加拿大和格陵兰岛。2025年，他对七个不同国家发动了打击，甚至在委内瑞拉行动中复活了美国推翻拉美领导人的政策。他还通过法外打击杀死了150多名涉嫌贩毒的人员——这很可能构成战争罪。
但他针对伊朗的新攻击则完全是另一回事。
根据特朗普自己的说法，这些并非有限打击，而是与以色列并肩开展的“大规模且持续的”军事行动，他称之为“战争”，并预先警告这可能会造成美国人员伤亡。尽管他在2025年6月对伊朗的短暂打击旨在削弱其核计划，但他表示这次行动有着更广泛、更宏大的目标——政权更迭。
“我想要的只是伊朗人民获得自由，”特朗普在东部时间凌晨4点刚过不久，即首轮打击数小时后对《华盛顿邮报》说道。
但这与特朗普及其团队多年来（甚至最近）向美国民众承诺的内容截然不同。
事实上，在特朗普所有军事行动中，这次最具矛盾性。
特朗普曾强烈反对在中东进行政权更迭
总统明确表示自己反对在中东进行政权更迭，并主张将精力集中在本土。
2016年竞选期间，他经常强调这一立场，当时他批评邻国伊拉克的战争，并将民主党对手希拉里·克林顿描述为无可救药的“好战分子”。
“我们必须摒弃希拉里·克林顿在伊拉克、利比亚、埃及和叙利亚推行的失败的国家建设和政权更迭政策，”特朗普在2016年共和党全国代表大会上表示。
他称，在没有充分计划的情况下推翻政权会造成“权力真空，而恐怖分子会迅速填补这些真空”。
他还表示，自己将“打破政权更迭的循环”，“摒弃对手支持的鲁莽政权更迭政策”。
就在2019年，特朗普再次强调这一立场。
“我们永无止境的战争、政权更迭和国家建设政策正在被清晰地追求美国利益的做法所取代，”特朗普称，“我们的军队的职责是保护我们的安全，而不是成为世界警察。”
“介入中东是有史以来最糟糕的决定，”他同年在社交媒体上发帖称。
即便在本届任期内，他的政府也试图淡化政权更迭的意图。
12月的一次演讲中，国防部长彼得·黑格斯泰特承诺其部门将“不会被民主建设干预主义、定义不明的战争、政权更迭……分散注意力”。
6月特朗普打击伊朗核设施后，黑格斯泰特特别保证这并非为了政权更迭。
“这次行动过去不是、现在也不是为了政权更迭，”黑格斯泰特表示。
当然，特朗普在这一问题上的言论有时是针对考虑不周、仓促进行的政权更迭战争，而非完全反对政权更迭。
尽管如此，他和黑格斯泰特的言论核心显然是：这种冲突不是美国应该介入的，尤其是在中东地区，而且必须存在对美国的绝对威胁和明确的结局计划。
但政府在这一行动中几乎没有制定实质性的战略计划——甚至连一贯的理由都没有。
特朗普数月来称6月打击已“摧毁”伊朗核计划
特朗普数月来声称，2025年6月对伊朗核设施的打击“彻底摧毁”了伊朗的核计划，暗示美国直接面临的威胁已所剩无几。
他们曾称投票给卡玛拉·哈里斯会引发此类战争
对伊朗的政权更迭也与特朗普团队在2024年大选中提出的主张背道而驰。事实上，他们有时警告称，投票给卡玛拉·哈里斯将导致此类战争。他们表示，特朗普才是和平候选人。
这不仅仅是一个随意的宣传点；特朗普及其竞选团队核心成员在竞选最后几周强调了这一点，指出鹰派前共和党国会女议员莉兹·切尼支持哈里斯。
“你知道，当他们坐在华盛顿漂亮的大楼里说‘哦，天哪，我们让1万名士兵直接冲进敌人的腹地’时，他们都是战争鹰派，”特朗普在选举日前不到一周表示。
特朗普顾问斯蒂芬·米勒在社交平台X上补充道：“莉兹·切尼是卡玛拉的首席顾问。莉兹想入侵整个中东。卡玛拉=第三次世界大战。特朗普=和平。”
“投票给卡玛拉·哈里斯就是投票给迪克·切尼和战争、战争再战争，”特朗普现任国家情报总监图尔西·加巴德称，“投票给唐纳德·特朗普就是投票结束战争，而非发动战争。”
国家共和党将其候选人标签为“反战”选项。
米勒补充道：“卡玛拉会把你们的儿子送上战场。”
现在，特朗普明确告诉美国人，他们的子女可能会在一场政权更迭战争中丧生。
“勇敢的美国英雄可能会失去生命，我们可能会有伤亡——战争中经常发生这种情况，”特朗普周六清晨表示，“但我们这么做不是为了现在，而是为了未来，这是一项崇高的使命。”
副总统JD·万斯2023年也发表文章称“特朗普最好的外交政策是不发动战争”
奥巴马时期的言论
周六，社交媒体上的批评者迅速广泛传播了特朗普的其他言论——这些言论是在奥巴马担任总统期间发表的。
“还记得我之前说过——奥巴马总有一天会袭击伊朗以显示自己有多强硬，”特朗普2013年9月发帖称。
同年11月，他补充道：“奥巴马会攻击伊朗，因为他无法妥善谈判——他不擅长！”
2011年，他还说：“我们的总统会与伊朗开战，因为他根本没有谈判能力。”
这些言论在今天看来无疑是一种讽刺。奥巴马最终确实与伊朗达成了协议（无论人们认为该协议有多好），并且从未对伊朗发动攻击。而特朗普现在却多次攻击伊朗，包括在近期谈判失败后。
特朗普还错误地预测奥巴马会在2012年大选前夕攻击伊朗。
“现在奥巴马的民调数字暴跌——小心他会对利比亚或伊朗发动打击，”特朗普2012年10月发帖称，“他很绝望。”
今日情况
如今，特朗普的支持率在其第一任期内大幅下滑，共和党人因这一情况而面临艰难的中期选举。
伊朗外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格希在周六截图并分享了特朗普2012年的帖子，称此次袭击“完全无端、非法且不合法”。
2026年2月27日，特朗普总统从佛罗里达州西棕榈滩国际机场空军一号走下舷梯。（曼德尔·恩甘/法新社/盖蒂图片社）
2025年6月21日，特朗普总统在华盛顿特区白宫向全国宣布打击伊朗核设施。（克雷格·哈德森/《华盛顿邮报》/盖蒂图片社/档案）
美国东部时间2026年2月28日，本报道持续更新中
Trump launches the regime-change effort in Iran that he pledged to avoid | CNN Politics
Analysis by Aaron Blake
2 hr ago
PUBLISHED Feb 28, 2026, 12:06 PM ET
People watch as smoke rises on the skyline after an explosion in Tehran, Iran, Saturday, Feb. 28, 2026.(AP Photo)
AP
It’s no secret that President Donald Trump’s foreign policy in his second term has been more militaristic.
Trump has floated claiming the Panama Canal, Canada and Greenland for the United States. He launched strikes on seven different countries in 2025 and even resurrected the US policy of deposing Latin American leaders with the operation in Venezuela. He has killed more than 150 people on alleged drug boats via extrajudicial strikes — which might well be war crimes.
But his new attacks against Iran represent something else entirely.
By Trump’s own account, these are not limited strikes, but rather a “massive and ongoing” military campaign alongside Israel that he suggests is “war” and warns up-front could cost American lives. While his brief Iran strikes in June were about debilitating the country’s nuclear program, he’s indicated these carry the broader and bigger goal of regime change.
“All I want is freedom for the people,” Trump told the Washington Post shortly after 4 a.m. Eastern time, hours after the first strikes.
But that’s decidedly not what Trump and his team have promised the American people over the years — or even recently.
Indeed, among all Trump’s military actions, this one is the most contradictory.
Trump has strongly opposed regime change in the Middle East
The president has explicitly pitted himself against regime change in the Middle East and argued for a focus that’s close to home.
He invoked this position often during the 2016 campaign while running against the war in neighboring Iraq and pitching Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton as an irredeemable and “trigger-happy” hawk.
“We must abandon the failed policy of nation-building and regime change that Hillary Clinton pushed in Iraq, Libya, Egypt and Syria,” Trump said at the 2016 Republican National Convention.
Smoke billows above the compound of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran, Iran, on Saturday February 28.
Airbus
He said toppling regimes without sufficient plans creates “power vacuums that are filled simply by terrorists.”
He said he would “break the cycle of regime change” and “abandon the policy of reckless regime change favored by my opponent.”
As recently as 2019, Trump doubled down.
“Our policy of never-ending war, regime change, and nation-building is being replaced by the clear-eyed pursuit of American interests,” Trump said. “It is the job of our military to protect our security, not to be the policeman of the world.”
“GOING INTO THE MIDDLE EAST IS THE WORST DECISION EVER MADE,” he posted on social media that same year.
And his administration even this term has sought to downplay regime change.
In a speech in December, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth promised his department would “not be distracted by democracy-building interventionism, undefined wars, regime change …”
And after Trump struck Iran’s nuclear facilities in June, Hegseth specifically assured it wasn’t about regime change.
“This mission was not and has not been about regime change,” Hegseth said.
To be fair, Trump’s comments on this front sometimes referred to ill-considered and hasty regime-change wars, rather than opposing regime change altogether.
Still, the thrust of his and Hegseth’s commentary was clearly that this type of conflict isn’t what the United States should get itself involved in, particularly in the Middle East and particularly absent an ironclad endgame and threat to the United States.
The administration has done little to lay out such a substantial strategic plan — or even a consistent justification — for this effort.
President Trump announces strikes on nuclear sites in Iran to the nation from the White House on June 21, 2025 in Washington, DC.
Craig Hudson/The Washington Post/Getty Images/File
And Trump has said for months that his June strikes had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program, suggesting there remained little in the way of a direct threat to the United States.
They claimed voting for Kamala Harris would lead to such wars
Regime change in Iran is also contrary to what the Trump team pitched in the 2024 election. Indeed, at times they warned that voting for Kamala Harris would lead to such wars. Trump, they said, was the peace candidate.
This wasn’t just a casual talking point; Trump and people close to his campaign emphasized it in the closing weeks, pointing to the fact that hawkish former GOP congresswoman Liz Cheney was supporting Harris.
“You know, they’re all war hawks when they’re sitting in Washington in a nice building saying, ‘Oh, gee, let’s send 10,000 troops right into the mouth of the enemy,’” Trump said less than a week before Election Day.
Trump adviser Stephen Miller added on X: “Liz Cheney is Kamala’s top advisor. Liz wants to invade the whole Middle East. Kamala = WWIII. Trump = Peace.”
“A vote for Kamala Harris is a vote for Dick Cheney and a vote for war, war and more war,” Trump’s now-director of national intelligence Tulsi Gabbard said. “A vote for Donald Trump is a vote to end wars, not start them.”
The national Republican Party pitched its ticket as the “pro-peace” option.
Miller added that “KAMALA WILL SEND YOUR SONS TO WAR.”
Now, Trump is explicitly telling Americans that their sons (and daughters) could die in a regime-change war.
“The lives of courageous American heroes may be lost, and we may have casualties — that often happens in war,” Trump said early Saturday morning. “But we’re doing this not for now; we’re doing this for the future, and it is a noble mission.”
Iranian demonstrators protest against the US-Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, February 28, 2026.
Majid Asgaripour/WANA/Reuters
Vice President JD Vance also wrote an op-ed in 2023 titled, “Trump’s Best Foreign Policy? Not Starting Any Wars.”
The Obama comments
Critics on social media Saturday quickly and widely circulated other Trump comments — ones he posted before all of the above, when Barack Obama was president.
“Remember what I previously said–Obama will someday attack Iran in order to show how tough he is,” Trump posted in September 2013.
He added in November of that year that “Obama will attack Iran because of his inability to negotiate properly-not skilled!”
And in 2011: “Our president will start a war with Iran because he has absolutely no ability to negotiate.”
Those comments certainly sting today. Obama ultimately did secure a deal with Iran (however good one believes that deal was) and never attacked it. Trump has now attacked Iran repeatedly, including after failing to negotiate his own deal recently.
Trump also wrongly predicted Obama would attack Iran on the eve of the 2012 election.
“Now that Obama’s poll numbers are in tailspin – watch for him to launch a strike in Libya or Iran,” Trump posted in October 2012. “He is desperate.”
President Donald Trump steps off Air Force One at Palm Beach International Airport in West Palm Beach, Florida, on February 27, 2026.
Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images
Today, Trump’s own numbers have declined substantially during his first year in office, and Republicans are staring down a difficult midterm election because of that.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi screenshotted and shared Trump’s 2012 post on Saturday, while calling the attack “wholly unprovoked, illegal, and illegitimate.”
By Emma ColtonFox News
