2026年4月15日 美国东部时间凌晨0:00 / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
斯蒂芬·科林森 分析报道
唐纳德·特朗普总统于4月12日抵达华盛顿特区白宫。
安娜贝尔·戈登/路透社
这场战争本不属于他们，但正逐渐演变成他们的政治与经济噩梦。
那些反对美以空袭伊朗的世界各国领导人，正陷入两难境地：一边是特朗普因他们未参战而震怒，另一边是本国选民强烈反对这场战争以及这位美国总统。
他们的困境正在改变美国与其盟友之间的关系。那些曾试图讨好、奉承这位全球最有权势领导人的各国领导人，如今敢于公开批评他，并寻求与美国保持距离。他们这么做不仅是因为反感美国的外交政策，还因为战争相关的压力正威胁本国人民的生计，进而威胁他们自己的政府和政治生涯。
就连那些曾试图影响特朗普第二任期行事风格的领导人，也在对他的轻蔑做出反应。意大利总理焦尔吉娅·梅洛尼周一表示，特朗普对教皇利奥十四世的攻击“不可接受”。英国首相基尔·斯塔默与特朗普的友谊因这场战争彻底破裂，他上周表示，英国民众因特朗普的行动面临更高能源账单，他对此“受够了”。
各国领导人正对自己无法掌控的战争后果做出反应，国际货币基金组织（IMF）周二发出的警告便是典型例证：全球经济正走向“不利”情景，今年增长率仅为2.5%，低于2025年的3.4%。
依赖中东天然气和石油供应的国家情况可能更糟。IMF将英国2026年经济增长预期从此前预测的1.3%下调至0.8%。这对岌岌可危的斯塔默政府而言无异于一场灾难，因为该政府未能兑现重振经济的承诺。
唐纳德·特朗普总统于3月19日在白宫椭圆形办公室会见日本首相高市早苗。
吉姆·沃森/法新社/盖蒂图片社
另一个关键美国盟友日本也因依赖中东能源而处境艰难。航运成本上涨推高了物价，并威胁到适度的工资增长。高市早苗从未料到，在2月历史性胜选后不久就会面临这样的逆风。
甚至在伊朗战争爆发前，特朗普在许多盟友国家就已经极不受欢迎。皮尤研究中心去年的一项调查显示，特朗普在十多个国家的支持率仅为35%或更低。他的支持率仅在以色列和尼日利亚等少数几个国家高于前总统乔·拜登。
这种分歧不仅代表着裂痕将持续到特朗普政府剩余任期，更威胁到数十年来为美国带来政治和经济影响力的同盟体系。与此同时，特朗普对北约的厌恶，即便他没有决定彻底退出美国，也已让该同盟的共同防御保障显得摇摇欲坠。
特朗普政府在言论和外交政策文件中都明确表示，它认为动用美国单边力量是保护21世纪美国利益的最佳方式。特朗普似乎并不将北约视为防御同盟，而是将其作为推进自身外交政策利益的工具——比如在伊朗发动的这场主动选择的战争。他对那些依赖美国防御保护伞却拒绝加入其战争的盟友几乎没有容忍度。
但对许多盟国领导人而言，签署参战协议在政治上是不可能的。他们的选民认为伊朗战争不明智、不太可能成功，且侵犯了国际法。特朗普曾贬低9·11事件后多场战争中美军的惨重伤亡，这进一步加深了选民对这位总统的反感。
意大利总理焦尔吉娅·梅洛尼于2月26日在意大利罗马奇吉宫等待塞浦路斯总统尼科斯·赫里斯托祖利季斯的到来。
雷莫·卡西利/路透社/资料图
战争如何紧张了特朗普与欧洲的关键盟友关系
IMF的预测清楚表明，伊朗冲突对盟国政府而言不仅仅是一场遥远的外交政策危机，它已成为国内政治威胁。再加上盟国领导人与美国总统之间日益加剧的对立，追随特朗普将成为政治负担。
意大利的梅洛尼领导着一个民粹主义右翼政党，是意识形态上与特朗普最契合的欧洲领导人之一。因此，她曾将自己定位为白宫与欧洲盟友之间的桥梁。但战争引发的燃料价格上涨打击了她本人的支持率。
梅洛尼还在拥有4000多万罗马天主教徒的国家中扮演着独特角色，且与梵蒂冈有着特殊关系。因此，她别无选择，只能批评特朗普对教皇的攻击。但她的转变可能毁掉了一年多来艰难开展的外交工作和关系构建。
据意大利《晚邮报》援引特朗普在一次采访中的话称：“我对她感到震惊。我原以为她有勇气。是我错了。”“她才是那个不可接受的人，因为她根本不在乎伊朗是否拥有核武器，只要有机会，伊朗会在两分钟内把意大利炸成两半。”
梅洛尼正在体验成为特朗普口头攻击目标的滋味。这对加拿大领导人来说早已是家常便饭，与特朗普打交道的挑战已经改变了加拿大国内政治。如果不是特朗普，前央行行长、政治圈外人马克·卡尼甚至不可能出任总理一职。但在特朗普攻击加拿大主权后，卡尼凭借反特朗普纲领在去年赢得大选。
加拿大总理马克·卡尼于4月11日在加拿大蒙特利尔举行的2026年自由党全国代表大会上发表讲话。
安德烈·伊万诺夫/法新社/盖蒂图片社
周一，卡尼通过两次补选胜利和反对党数名议员倒戈，巩固了自己的执政地位，将少数派政府变为多数派政府。在本月的自由党代表大会上，他间接提及特朗普的扩张主义图谋。“我们将团结一致，建设强大的加拿大，一个属于所有人的加拿大，一个强大到无人能够夺走的加拿大，”他说道。
卡尼做出了一个影响深远的选择。尽管他希望与美国合作，但他的执政基础来自选举授权，且建立在抵抗特朗普的立场之上。因此，他在政治上比许多其他盟国领导人处境更好。但他的支持率仍将受到他无法完全掌控的因素的考验，比如战争相关的经济损失、美国关税，以及即将到来的北美贸易协定艰难重谈。
特朗普曾被视为欧洲民粹主义者的英雄，许多人认为他以严厉反移民立场连任，预示着他们自己的政治崛起。但这一切在匈牙利周末的选举中发生了改变。特朗普、副总统JD·万斯和“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）运动为民粹主义强人维克多·欧尔班造势，仿佛他是摇摆州的共和党参议员。但令人震惊的大选结果将执政16年的欧尔班赶下台。
这次失败可能会加速欧洲民粹主义领导人出于自身政治利益而与MAGA运动保持距离的趋势。
特朗普施压盟国领导人造成的悖论
特朗普政府从未真正关心过特朗普的另类行事风格给盟国领导人带来的政治难题。它似乎对现代欧洲充满轻蔑，并在国家安全战略中明确表示支持欧洲那些试图推翻更多中间派领导人的民粹主义团体。万斯曾辩称，传统欧洲及其价值观可能会因主要来自中东和北非穆斯林国家的移民而丧失。
唐纳德·特朗普总统于4月11日从白宫南草坪乘坐海军一号离开前，与记者交谈。
亚历克斯·布兰登/美联社
特朗普似乎认为自己在海外很受欢迎，并辩称他展示美国实力的举动让美国比以往任何时候都更受敬畏和尊重，成为全球“最热门”的国家。
美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特作为特朗普对盟国发动贸易战的急先锋，周二试图淡化伊朗战争对非参战国的影响，称IMF“可能反应过度了”。
欧洲领导人可能越来越公开地批评特朗普，但他们的回旋余地有限。他们的立场经常因与美国关系中最大的软肋——本国军力虚弱——而受到削弱。
当特朗普抱怨北约盟友未派遣船只疏通霍尔木兹海峡时，他戳中了痛处。不仅仅是盟国领导人没有政治 backing 这么做：经过多年的国防削减，非美国的北约国家可能已经没有能力完成这样的任务。
当特朗普考虑退出北约时，他打出了一张重要牌：欧洲认真重整军备可能会拖垮各国政府，因为这将意味着不受欢迎的医疗和社会项目削减。
因此，尽管各国欧洲盟友为了自身政治存续而转而反对特朗普，但他们无法冒险与美国彻底决裂。
但这位总统越是要求他们加入这场不受欢迎的战争，他们就越没有政治空间帮助他结束这场战争。
US allies won’t join Trump’s war — but they can’t escape the fallout
2026-04-15 12:00 AM ET / CNN
Analysis by Stephen Collinson
President Donald Trump arrives at the White House in Washington, DC, on April 12.
Annabelle Gordon/Reuters
It’s not their war. But it’s becoming their political and economic nightmare.
World leaders who opposed the US-Israeli attack on Iran are being torn between Donald Trump’s ire at their failure to join the conflict and electorates who are deeply hostile to the war and America’s president.
Their dilemma is shifting the dynamic between the US and its allies. Leaders who once tried to appease and flatter the world’s most powerful man are now daring to criticize him and seeking distance. They are doing so not just out of antipathy to American foreign policy, but also because of war-related pressures threatening the livelihoods of their people, and therefore their own governments and careers.
Even leaders who tried to shape Trump’s second-term behavior are reacting to his contempt. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on Monday said Trump’s attacks on Pope Leo XIV were “unacceptable.” British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, whose friendship with Trump shattered over the war, said last week he was “fed up” that Britons were facing higher energy bills because of Trump’s actions.
Leaders are reacting to war consequences they can’t control, epitomized by an International Monetary Fund warning Tuesday that the world is trending toward an “adverse” scenario of only 2.5% growth this year, down from 3.4% in 2025.
Countries reliant on Middle East gas and oil supplies could fare worse. The IMF downgraded its growth forecast for Britain to 0.8% in 2026, down from a previous projection of 1.3%. That would be a disaster for Starmer’s imperiled government, which has failed to honor its pledge to reignite the economy.
President Donald Trump meets with Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in the Oval Office of the White House on March 19.
Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images
Another key US ally, Japan, is also under duress because it relies on Middle Eastern energy. Higher shipping costs are pushing prices higher and threatening a modest rise in wages. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi never expected to face such headwinds soon after her historic election victory in February.
Even before the Iran war, Trump was deeply unpopular in many allied nations. A Pew Research survey last year showed the president’s approval ratings in more than a dozen countries at 35% or below. His approval was higher than former President Joe Biden in only a few countries, including Israel and Nigeria.
The disconnect does not merely represent a breach that will last through the rest of the Trump administration. It threatens the alliances that multiplied US political and economic power for decades. Trump’s antipathy to NATO, meanwhile, has left its mutual defense guarantees looking shaky even if he doesn’t decide to withdraw the US altogether.
The Trump White House has made clear in its rhetoric and foreign policy documents that it sees the application of US unilateral power as the best way to protect US interests in the 21st century. The president seems to regard NATO not as a defensive alliance but as a tool for him to advance his foreign policy interests — for instance in a war of choice in Iran. He has little tolerance for allies that rely on the US defense umbrella but refuse to join his wars.
But signing up to fight is politically impossible for many allied leaders. They face electorates that view the Iran war as unwise, unlikely to succeed and an infringement of international law. Trump’s disparagement of heavy allied war losses in the post 9/11 wars only deepened their voters’ antipathy to the president.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni waits for the arrival of President of Cyprus Nikos Christodoulides at Chigi Palace in Rome, Italy, on February 26.
Remo Casilli/Reuters/File
How the war strained a key Trump relationship with Europe
The IMF forecasts made clear that the Iran conflict is more than a distant foreign policy crisis for allied governments. It has become a domestic and political threat. This, combined with growing antagonism between allied leaders and the US president, means that standing with him would be a liability.
Italy’s Meloni leads a populist, right-wing party, and is one of the European leaders most ideologically compatible with Trump. She had therefore positioned herself as a bridge between the White House and European allies. But her own popularity has been hit by war-induced fuel price rises.
Meloni also has a unique role in a nation that has more than 40 million Roman Catholics and a special relationship with the Vatican. She therefore had no real political choice but to criticize Trump’s attacks on the Pope. But her shift may have ruined more than a year of painful diplomacy and relationship-building.
“I’m shocked by her. I thought she had courage. I was wrong,” Trump was quoted as saying by the Italian-language Corriere della Sera in an interview. “She is the one who is unacceptable, because she does not care whether Iran has a nuclear weapon and would blow Italy up in two minutes if it had the chance.”
Meloni is learning what it’s like to be on the end of a verbal Trump barrage. That was already part of life for leaders in Canada, where the challenge of dealing with Trump has transformed domestic politics. Were it not for Trump, it’s unlikely that Prime Minister Mark Carney — a former central banker and political outsider — would even be in the job. But his election victory last year on an anti-Trump platform followed the president’s attacks on Canadian sovereignty.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney speaks during the 2026 Liberal National Convention in Montreal, Canada, on April 11.
Andrej Ivanov/AFP/Getty Images
On Monday, Carney solidified his mandate and turned a minority administration into a majority government following two special election wins and several defections from opposition parties. At his Liberal Party convention this month, he alluded to Trump’s expansionist designs. “United, we will build Canada strong, a Canada for all, a Canada strong that no one can ever take away,” he said.
Carney has made a fateful choice. While he hopes to work with the US, his foundation of power is confirmed by an electoral mandate and rests on a foundation of resistance to Trump. He’s therefore in better shape politically than many other allied leaders. But his popularity will still be tested by factors he can’t fully control, such as war-related economic damage; US tariffs; and what is looming as a bitter renegotiation of a North American trade agreement.
Trump was once seen as a hero for European populists, many of whom assumed his reelection on a harsh anti-immigration stance predicted their own political rise. That all changed in Hungary this weekend. Trump, Vice President JD Vance and the MAGA movement campaigned for populist strongman Viktor Orbán as though he were a GOP senator in a swing state. But stunning general election results ousted Orbán after 16 years in power.
The defeat is likely to accelerate a trend of populist leaders in Europe distancing themselves from MAGA for their own political good.
The paradox caused by Trump’s pressure on allied leaders
The Trump White House has never shown much concern about the political problems that Trump’s unusual style causes for allied leaders. It seems to have contempt for modern Europe. It enshrined support for populist groups there fighting to take down more centrist leaders in its national security strategy. Vance has argued that traditional Europe and its values could be lost to immigration from mainly Muslim Middle Eastern and North African nations.
President Donald Trump speaks with reporters before departing on Marine One from the South Lawn of the White House on April 11.
Alex Brandon/AP
Trump seems to believe he’s popular abroad and argues that his displays of American power have made the United States more feared and respected than ever as the “hottest” nation on the planet.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the tip of the spear of Trump’s trade wars with allied nations, on Tuesday sought to minimize the impact of the Iran war on non-combatant nations, saying that the IMF “probably overreacted.”
European leaders might be becoming more overt in their criticisms of Trump. But they have only so much rope. Their positions are frequently undercut by their greatest liability in relations with the US — their weakened militaries.
When Trump complained that NATO allies didn’t send ships to open the Strait of Hormuz, he hit a sore point. It was not just that allied leaders didn’t have the political backing to do so: Non-US NATO powers probably don’t have the capability anymore to pull off such a mission after years of defense cuts.
When Trump mulls withdrawing from NATO, he is playing a significant card: Serious rearmaments in Europe could break governments because of the unpopular cuts in health and social programs they would entail.
So even as they turn on Trump for their own political preservation, his estranged European counterparts cannot risk a total break with the United States.
But the more the president demands their entry into an unpopular war, the less political room they have to help him end it.