分析：布雷特·H·麦格克，更新于2026年3月2日，美国东部时间凌晨1:28，发布于2026年3月2日，美国东部时间午夜12:00
人们从屋顶眺望，德黑兰一处打击后升起的浓烟（德黑兰，伊朗，周日）。
瓦希德·塞勒米/美联社
布雷特·麦格克是CNN全球事务分析师，曾在乔治·W·布什、巴拉克·奥巴马、唐纳德·特朗普和乔·拜登政府担任高级国家安全职务。
在中东正发生的这类危机中，总统会收到一份由情报和军方来源准备的净评估报告。该报告可能评估力量对比、领导层动态和战略考量——但不提出政策建议。其目的是提供清晰性：作为决策的基准线。
我们无法获取流入 Situation Room（ Situation Room 为美国白宫椭圆形办公室旁的紧急指挥室，此处指代美国国家安全决策核心场所）的报告流。但有足够多的信息可以构建一个严谨的基准评估。
以下是最重要的十个问题——以及下一步需要关注的内容。
- 对伊朗的空中优势
据报道，在周六深夜的凌晨，美军摧毁了伊朗剩余的防空系统。由于伊朗大部分由俄罗斯提供的防空系统在过去一年已被以色列的打击摧毁，剩余的防御力量已所剩无几。
现在美国和以色列似乎已对伊朗拥有空中优势。这意味着在冲突持续期间及之后，美国和以色列的飞机可以随意飞行，风险可控。
- 伊朗领导层的混乱
特朗普称，在空袭行动的最初几小时内，有48名伊朗高层领导人被杀，其中包括伊朗最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊。这相当于美国总统、参谋长联席会议主席以及多名内阁官员在同一时刻被杀死。
对于伊朗这样自1979年内战以来仅经历过一次领导权更迭的国家，这很可能导致伊朗整个指挥链陷入严重混乱和不确定性。周日，伊朗外交部长在一次采访中承认，其军事单位可能在独立行动，且与上级指挥链失去联系。
这一表态甚至连伊朗官员自己都可能不确定谁在掌权。
- 领导权继承的不确定性
伊朗政权试图向其追随者保证，已根据宪法启动接替哈梅内伊的程序。这意味着一个由总统、首席大法官和一名指定神职人员领导的临时委员会据称正在决策。但这些人从未公开露面，而以色列和美国飞机继续针对伊朗领导层。周六有报道称，曾打击了前伊朗总统马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪-内贾德住所附近。
此外，哈梅内伊没有明确的继任者。一个主要候选人，另一位前总统易卜拉欣·莱希，两年前死于直升机坠毁。另一位候选人，哈梅内伊的儿子穆贾塔巴，尽管与伊斯兰革命卫队联系密切，但仍面临诸多障碍。在没有指定继任者的情况下，伊朗伊斯兰共和国的基础可能在未来几周进一步削弱。
人们聚集在德黑兰悼念伊朗最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊（德黑兰，周日）。
马吉德·阿斯加里普尔/WANA/路透社
一名女子在德黑兰手持哈梅内伊的照片（周日）。
马吉德·阿斯加里普尔/WANA/路透社
- 导弹数学
伊朗正以导弹攻击以色列、美国在该地区的设施以及海湾地区的民用目标，回应美国和以色列的打击。在这些初期阶段，美国和以色列军事指挥官的首要任务是削弱伊朗的导弹能力——特别是其发射装置。发射装置决定了伊朗每次齐射能发射多少导弹。这将很困难。伊朗拥有有限数量的远程导弹打击以色列，但它在近距离目标（如伊拉克或海湾国家）上有大量短程和中程导弹储备。它们还可能在使用前分散并隐藏起来。
在未来几天，我将观察伊朗是否能维持我们在最初几小时看到的齐射规模，或者军事打击是否已产生预期的削弱效果。
- 海湾国家：从边缘卷入
在这些早期阶段，最令人惊讶的事态发展是伊朗决定将民用基础设施、酒店和住宅作为目标，包括沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、卡塔尔、巴林、科威特和阿曼等海湾国家。周日，美国中央司令部公布了被攻击目标清单，此前伊朗声称其仅专注于美国军事基地。
这些国家本想置身于冲突之外，但伊朗的攻击现在正将它们卷入其中。面对共同威胁，政治分歧已被搁置。现在，人们正在考虑如何回应。如果一些海湾国家加入对伊朗的打击，这将是一个重大事态发展，逆转伊朗多年来与阿拉伯邻国和解的努力。
注：英国、法国和德国周日发表联合声明称，他们可能也会加入打击伊朗导弹和无人机供应的行动。这表明一个可能针对伊朗的联盟正在形成。
到周日晚些时候，一个更广泛的联盟似乎正在形成。继欧盟三巨头（E3，即英国、法国、德国）之后，五个海湾国家和约旦加入美国行列，谴责伊朗并宣称其对伊朗攻击拥有“自卫权”。
- 俄罗斯和中国——目前缺席
伊朗历史上一直吹嘘其与俄罗斯和中国的战略伙伴关系。伊朗为俄罗斯提供了导弹和无人机用于乌克兰，并且依赖俄罗斯的防空系统。现在这些系统已被摧毁，俄罗斯无力更换。至于中国，它依赖伊朗廉价的石油（伊朗80%的石油出口到中国）以及通过霍尔木兹海峡的全球贸易。
莫斯科和北京在其伙伴哈梅内伊死后也几乎保持沉默。周日晚，有报道称俄罗斯和中国外交部长之间的通话只是口头谴责美以打击，但没有其他实质性行动。这种状况不太可能改变。伊朗正孤立无援。
- 尚未出现重大非对称回应
伊朗的非对称工具包——网络行动、代理民兵、海上破坏——迄今为止似乎处于休眠状态。伊朗官员撤回了关闭霍尔木兹海峡的威胁，据报道美军正在打击伊朗海军。伊朗最核心的代理武装真主党已遭受重创，目前尚未在伊朗北部边境采取行动。伊拉克民兵向埃尔比勒机场发射了无人机，但伊拉克领导人正努力使其国家远离冲突。尽管如此，这仍是一个需要关注的领域，因为缺乏行动可能反映出混乱——或准备。
- 能源冲击
任何涉及伊朗的持续冲突都会推高油价——尤其是如果霍尔木兹海峡的海上交通受到威胁。无论伊朗是否采取行动封锁海峡，这一点都肯定会发生。周日，由沙特阿拉伯领导的石油输出国组织（OPEC）同意每天增加超过20万桶的产量。尽管如此，周日晚间市场开盘时油价还是上涨了10%。
交易员将在未来几天密切关注市场。伊朗希望油价上涨能增加国内对特朗普的压力，因为特朗普一直试图压低油价。
前五角大楼发言人预测加油站油价将上涨
8:22 • 来源：CNN
然而，自几十年前中东能源危机以来，全球市场已发生变化。美国现在是世界上最大的产油国，任何来自中东出口的重大全球价格波动可能都是短暂的。
- 升级优势——而非结果优势
在军事上，美国保持着压倒性的常规优势：空中力量、海军打击群、全球情报覆盖和后勤深度。如果伊朗选择大幅升级，美国和以色列在伊朗拥有多个可选目标和行动方案。随着时间推移，这种优势可能会影响伊朗的决策，并在领导层过渡中支持更务实的声音。
然而，仅靠军事优势无法带来政治结果，而且在现阶段，伊朗新领导层很可能仍坚持其革命意识形态和对西方的敌意。
图片集：美以打击伊朗后中东紧张局势升级
44张图片
图片集：美以打击伊朗后中东紧张局势升级
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周六，德黑兰一辆汽车残骸。
阿米尔·霍洛西/ISNA/WANA新闻社/路透社
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周六，巴林麦纳麦，一架伊朗无人机袭击后燃烧的建筑冒出浓烟。
哈马德·I·穆罕默德/路透社
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3月2日，黎巴嫩贝鲁特南部郊区哈雷特·赫雷克区一栋建筑在以色列空袭后受损起火。
法新社/盖蒂图片社
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周一凌晨，逃离以色列空袭的黎巴嫩南部流离失所家庭抵达南部港口城市赛达，孩子们坐在人行道上。
穆罕默德·扎塔里/美联社
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周日，以色列贝特谢梅什，人们聚集在致命导弹袭击现场。
利奥·科雷亚/美联社
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美国海军发布的照片显示，“托马斯·哈德纳”号驱逐舰从未知地点发射战斧导弹。
美国海军/路透社
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周日，以色列贝特谢梅什，救援人员在袭击现场搬运一具尸体。
阿马尔·阿瓦德/路透社
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周日，伊朗德黑兰遭美以领导的空袭后，城市上空升起浓烟。
法特梅·巴赫拉米/阿纳多卢/盖蒂图片社
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周日，德黑兰Enghelab广场，人们手持伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉·哈梅内伊的照片聚集，哈梅内伊一天前在美以空袭中身亡。
马吉德·阿斯加里普尔/西亚洲新闻社/路透社
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周日，以色列特拉维夫，救援人员和军事人员在导弹袭击现场勘察。
奥戴德·巴利蒂/美联社
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周日，印度尼西亚巴厘岛伊古斯蒂·努格拉哈· Rai国际机场，阿联酋航空公司客服办公室附近，因飞往中东的航班取消，滞留乘客等待。
约翰内斯·P·克里斯托/路透社
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周日，德黑兰，政府支持者在国家电视台正式宣布哈梅内伊死亡后聚集哀悼。
瓦希德·塞勒米/美联社
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周日，以色列本古里安指挥部一名军官在导弹击中的房屋废墟中搜寻。
利奥·科雷亚/美联社
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利娅·古特曼抱着儿子泰迪，在特拉维夫防空警报响起时躲进地下停车场。
奥哈德·兹维根伯格/美联社
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周日，德黑兰，人们从屋顶观看爆炸后的烟柱。
阿塔·凯纳雷/法新社/盖蒂图片社
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周六，2月28日，特拉维夫居民在地下停车场过夜。
亚历克西·J·罗森菲尔德/盖蒂图片社
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周六，特拉维夫报复性袭击后燃起大火。
埃里克·马尔莫/盖蒂图片社
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周六，巴格达美国大使馆附近，抗议者举着哈梅内伊照片和伊朗国旗高呼口号。
艾哈迈德·阿尔-鲁巴伊/法新社/盖蒂图片社
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周六，以色列中部城市贝特谢梅什，人们聚集在疑似伊朗导弹袭击现场。
阿米特·埃尔卡亚姆/《纽约时报》/Redux
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周六，卡塔尔多哈，民众观看拦截的导弹。
萨利姆·赛义德/路透社
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周六，迪拜棕榈岛费尔蒙酒店，袭击后受损。
阿尔塔夫·卡德里/美联社
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周六，特拉维夫，救援人员在袭击后协助平民。
埃里克·马尔莫/盖蒂图片社
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周六，特拉维夫一栋建筑被导弹击中，夜空被爆炸照亮。
托默·纽伯格/美联社
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伊朗裔美国人萨达芙·埃布拉希米和希林·纳里曼在弗吉尼亚州维也纳的家中得知哈梅内伊周六死亡消息后，对新闻作出反应。
内森·霍华德/路透社
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周六，德黑兰交通拥堵。
马吉德·阿斯加里普尔/WANA新闻社/路透社
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周六，以色列耶路撒冷，防空系统拦截从伊朗发射的导弹。
罗南·兹沃伦/路透社
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周六，叙利亚库奈特拉省南部乡村，儿童爬上被以色列军队拦截的导弹残骸。
巴赫·阿尔卡塞米/法新社/盖蒂图片社
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白宫发布的照片显示，总统唐纳德·特朗普、幕僚长苏西·怀尔斯和国务卿马尔科·卢比奥在佛罗里达州海湖庄园监控对伊朗的军事行动。照片部分内容由来源模糊处理。
白宫
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美国中央司令部提供的视频画面显示，一艘美国海军舰艇周六发射导弹。
美国中央司令部/美联社
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周六，特拉维夫伊奇洛夫医院，工作人员将病人转移至地下避难所。
阿米特·埃尔卡亚姆/《纽约时报》/Redux
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周六，德黑兰，人们挥舞伊朗国旗参加集会。
阿拉什·哈莫什/《纽约时报》/Redux
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周六，德黑兰发生大爆炸后，一名妇女从屋顶花园向外眺望。
阿拉什·哈莫什/《纽约时报》/Redux
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周六，以色列海法，海上发生爆炸。
拉米·什卢什/路透社
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周六，德黑兰，人们在废墟中搜寻。
阿米尔·霍洛西/ISNA/WANA新闻社/路透社
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周六，伊朗发射的导弹被拦截后，以色列阿什凯隆居民躲入掩体。
阿米尔·科恩/路透社
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2月28日周六，德黑兰爆炸后，人们观看城市上空的烟雾。
美联社
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周六，德黑兰，伊朗最高领袖官邸建筑群冒出浓烟。
空客
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周六，特拉维夫地下停车场用作避难所，人们在车库外打壁球。
约翰·韦塞尔/法新社/盖蒂图片社
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周六，伊朗米纳布，一所女子小学遭导弹袭击，救援人员正在现场搜寻。
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周六，以色列沿海城市内坦亚，一枚导弹被拦截。
杰克·居伊/法新社/盖蒂图片社
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周六，多哈居民在阳台观看爆炸，此前卡塔尔国防部称已击落目标导弹。
穆罕默德·塞勒姆/路透社
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周六，耶路撒冷防空警报响起，人们躲入掩体。
艾哈迈德·加拉布利/法新社/盖蒂图片社
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周六，以色列拉特伦附近公路桥，人们躲在桥下。
阿米尔·科恩/路透社
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周六，德黑兰空袭后，鸟儿从上空飞过。
马吉德·阿斯加里普尔/WANA新闻社/路透社
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周六，德黑兰一辆汽车残骸。
阿米尔·霍洛西/ISNA/WANA新闻社/路透社
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周六，巴林麦纳麦，一架伊朗无人机袭击后燃烧的建筑冒出浓烟。
哈马德·I·穆罕默德/路透社
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3月2日，黎巴嫩贝鲁特南部郊区哈雷特·赫雷克区一栋建筑在以色列空袭后受损起火。
法新社/盖蒂图片社
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周一凌晨，逃离以色列空袭的黎巴嫩南部流离失所家庭抵达南部港口城市赛达，孩子们坐在人行道上。
穆罕默德·扎塔里/美联社
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图片集：美以打击伊朗后中东紧张局势升级
10. 无自然终结点
战争一旦开始，就会有其自身的动力，而这些变量往往是在最初阶段未曾考虑到的。不可能预测48小时内这一切将走向何方。从华盛顿的角度看，现阶段的主要担忧——即使在取得非凡的军事成功之后——是这场行动没有明确的退出策略或自然的终结点。即使伊朗发生反对现有政权残余的起义，这些残余势力很可能再次以致命武力镇压抗议。届时，美国是否会再次使用空中力量阻止镇压，仍是个未知数。这些都是现在必须考虑的问题。
底线
战略和战术优势可能与对未来走向的巨大不确定性共存。这可能正是特朗普正在收到的净评估报告的结论。
中东 俄罗斯 国家安全
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Iran after 48 hours: Tactical success, strategic uncertainty
Analysis by Brett H. McGurk, Updated Mar 2, 2026, 1:28 AM ET, PUBLISHED Mar 2, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
People watch from a rooftop as a plume of smoke rises after a strike in Tehran, Iran, on Sunday.
Vahid Salemi/AP
Brett McGurk is a CNN global affairs analyst who served in senior national security positions under Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
During a crisis like what is now unfolding in the Middle East, a president receives a net assessment prepared from intelligence and military sources. It might evaluate the balance of forces, leadership dynamics and strategic calculations — without making policy recommendations. Its purpose is clarity: a baseline from which decisions can be made.
We do not have access to the stream of reporting flowing into the Situation Room. But enough is visible to construct a disciplined baseline assessment.
Here are the ten issues that matter most — and what to watch next.
- Air dominance over Iran
In the early hours Saturday night, US military forces reportedly destroyed whatever was left of Iran’s air defenses. There was not much there as much of Iran’s Russian supplied systems were destroyed in previous strikes by Israel over the last year.
The American and Israel sides now appear to have air dominance over Iran. That means U.S. and Israeli aircraft can fly at will with manageable risk for as long as this conflict continues—and afterwards.
- Iranian leadership disarray
Trump has reported that 48 top Iranian leaders were killed in the initial hours of the air campaign, including Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. This would be the equivalent of the American president, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, and multiple Cabinet officials killed in a moment
For a country like Iran that has only had one leader succession since its 1979 civil war, this is likely to cause deep disarray and uncertainty throughout Iran’s chain of command. On Sunday, Iran’s foreign minister acknowledged in an interview that its military units are likely acting independently and out of contact with a chain of command above them.
That’s an acknowledgment that even Iranian officials may be unsure who’s in charge.
- Succession uncertainty
Iran’s regime has sought to reassure its followers that a succession to replace Khamenei is underway, with a process outlined in its constitution. This means an interim council led by its president, chief justice, and a cleric to be named is purportedly making decisions, But none have been seen publicly, and Israeli and US aircraft are continuing to target Iran’s leadership. A strike was reported Saturday in the vicinity of where former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is said to live.
Also, there is no clear successor to Khamenei. One top candidate, another former president, Ebrahim Raisi, died in a helicopter crash two years ago. Another, Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, would face several hurdles despite his strong links with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Absent a named successor, the foundation of Iran’s Islamic republic may further erode over the coming weeks
People gather to mourn Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran on Sunday.
Majid Asgaripour/WANA/Reuters
A woman holds a picture Khamenei in Tehran on Sunday.
Majid Asgaripour/WANA/Reuters
4. Missile math
Iran is responding to the American and Israeli blows with missile attacks into Israel, American facilities in the region, and civilian targets across the Gulf. The top priority for US and Israeli military commanders in these early days is to degrade Iran’s missile capabilities — particularly its launchers. The launchers determine how many missiles Iran can fire per salvo. This will be difficult. Iran has limited quantities of longer-range missiles to reach Israel, but it has larger stockpiles of short- and medium-range missiles for closer range targets, such as in Iraq or the Gulf states. They are also likely dispersed and hidden before use.
Over the coming days, I’ll be watching to see whether Iran can sustain the barrages we’ve seen in early hours, or whether military strikes into Iran are having the desired degradation effect.
- Gulf states: Off the sidelines
The most surprising development for me in these early hours has been Iran’s decision to target civilian infrastructure, hotels, and residences in the Gulf states — Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman. US Central Command on Sunday put out a list of what’s been targeted, after Iran claimed to be focused solely on American military bases
[Related article Clipped From Video From Tehran to Dubai: Geolocated videos show the shockwaves of US-Israeli strikes — and Iran’s retaliation 4 min read]
These countries wanted to remain out of this conflict, but Iran’s attacks are now drawing them in. Political disagreements have been put aside in the face of a common threat. Now, there is consideration of how to respond. Should some of the Gulf states join strikes into Iran, that would be a significant development, reversing years of work by Iran to reconcile with its Arab neighbors.
Note: The UK, France, and Germany on Sunday issued a joint statement saying they might also join in strikes against Iran’s missile and drone supplies. This indicates a possible coalition emerging against Iran.
By late Sunday, a broader coalition appeared to be forming. Following the E3, five Gulf states and Jordan joined the US in condemning Iran and asserting their “right to self defense” against Iran’s attacks.
6. Russia and China — absent for now
Iran historically has touted its strategic partnership with Russia and China. Its provided missiles and drones for Russia to use in Ukraine, and had relied on Russian air defense systems. Those are now destroyed and Russia has no capacity to replace them. As for China, it depends on cheap Iranian oil (80% of Iran’s oil goes to China) as well as global trade through the Strait of Hormuz.
Moscow and Beijing have said little even after the death of their partner, Khamenei. Late Sunday, a reported phone call between the foreign ministers of Russia and China offered verbal condemnation of the American and Israeli strikes, but not much else. That’s unlikely to change. Iran is standing on its own.
7. No major asymmetric response — yet
Iran’s asymmetric toolkit — cyber operations, proxy militias, maritime disruption — appears dormant thus far. Iranian officials backed off threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, and US forces are reportedly targeting Iran’s navy. Iran’s crown jewel proxy, Hezbollah, is already battered and thus far not engaged on Iran’s northern border. Militias in Iraq have fired drones at the airport in Erbil, but Iraqi leaders are working to keep its country out of the crosshairs. Nonetheless, this is an area to watch, as lack of action may reflect disarray — or preparation.
8. Energy shock
Any sustained conflict involving Iran raises oil prices — especially if maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is threatened. That is certain whether Iran acts to shut down the strait or not. On Sunday, OPEC, the oil producing countries led by Saudi Arabia, agreed to increase production by more than 200 thousand barrels per day. Still, oil prices rose 10% as markets opened on Sunday evening.
Traders will be watching markets closely over the coming days. Iran will hope that a price boost raises domestic pressure on Trump, who’s aimed to keep prices low.
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Former Pentagon spokesperson predicts price jump at gas pump
8:22 • Source: CNN
Former Pentagon spokesperson predicts price jump at gas pump
8:22
However, global markets have changed since the days of Middle East energy crises decades ago. The United States is now the largest producer in the world, and any significant global price disruption from Middle East exports is likely to be short lived.
9. Escalation dominance— not outcome dominance
Militarily, the United States maintains overwhelming conventional superiority: airpower, naval strike groups, global intelligence reach and logistics depth. If Iran chooses to significantly escalate, the US together with Israel retain multiple options and targets across Iran. That advantage over time might shape Iranian calculations and support more pragmatic voices in the leadership transition.
Military advantage alone, however, cannot deliver political outcomes and it’s probable at this stage that Iran’s new leaders remain committed to its ideology of revolution and hostility towards the West.
In pictures: Middle East tensions escalate after …
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In pictures: Middle East tensions escalate after US-Israel strikes on Iran
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The remains of a car are seen in Tehran on Saturday.
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Smoke rises from a burning building hit by an Iranian drone strike in Manama, Bahrain, on Saturday.
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A fire is seen in a damaged building after an Israeli airstrike in Beirut’s southern suburb neighborhood of Haret Hreik, in Lebanon, on March 2, 2026.
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Children sit on a sidewalk as displaced families fleeing Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon arrive in the southern port city of Sidon, early on Monday.
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People gather at the site of a deadly missile strike in Beit Shemesh, Israel, on Sunday, March 1.
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In this photo released by the US Navy, the USS Thomas Hudner fires a Tomahawk missile from an undisclosed location on Sunday.
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Emergency personnel carry a body at the site of a strike in Beit Shemesh on Sunday.
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Smoke rises above the city after Tehran, Iran, was targeted by US and Israel led airstrikes on Sunday.
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People react as they gather at Enghelab Square in Tehran on Sunday while holding a picture of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed a day earlier in Israeli and US strikes.
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Rescue workers and military personnel survey the site of a missile strike in Tel Aviv, Israel, on Sunday.
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Stranded passengers wait near Emirates Airways customer service office at I Gusti Ngurah Rai International Airport in Bali, Indonesia, after flights to the Middle East were cancelled on Sunday.
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Government supporters in Tehran gather on Sunday in mourning after state TV officially announced the death of Khamenei.
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An officer from Israel’s Home Front Command searches through the rubble of a destroyed house after it was struck by a missile in Beit Shemesh on Sunday.
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Leah Guttmann holds her son, Teddy, while taking shelter in an underground parking garage as air-raid sirens warn of incoming missiles in Tel Aviv on Sunday.
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Residents watch from the roofs of their houses as plumes of smoke rise following reported explosions in Tehran on Sunday.
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People prepare to spend the night sleeping in an underground shelter in Tel Aviv on Saturday, February 28.
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A fire burns after a retaliatory strike in Tel Aviv on Saturday.
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Protesters shout slogans as they carry portraits of Khamenei and wave Iranian flags near the US embassy in Baghdad on Saturday.
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Emergency responders and residents gather at the site of a reported Iranian missile strike in central Israel late Saturday.
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An intercepted missile is seen from Doha, Qatar, on Saturday.
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Emergency workers inspect damage to the Fairmont The Palm hotel in Dubai on Saturday.
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Emergency workers assist civilians after a strike in Tel Aviv on Saturday.
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An explosion lights up the night sky as a missile hits a building in Tel Aviv on Saturday.
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Iranain Americas Sadaf Ebrahimi and Shirin Nariman, supporters of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, react to reports that Khamenei was killed Saturday while watching the news at Nariman’s home in Vienna, Virginia.
Nathan Howard/Reuters
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Heavy traffic clogs the streets of Tehran on Saturday.
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An air defense system operates in Jerusalem as missiles are launched toward Israel from Iran on Saturday.
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Children climb on the wreckage of a missile that was reportedly intercepted by Israeli forces on Saturday in the southern countryside of Quneitra, Syria, near the Golan Heights.
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In this photo [released by The White House], President Donald Trump, chief of staff Susie Wiles and Secretary of State Marco Rubio monitor US military operations in Iran on Saturday from the president’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. Portions of the photo have been blurred by the source.
The White House
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This image from video provided by US Central Command shows a missile being launched from a US Navy ship on Saturday.
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Staff members transfer patients to an underground shelter at the Ichilov hospital in Tel Aviv following an air raid warning on Saturday.
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People wave Iranian flags during a rally in Tehran on Saturday.
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A woman looks out from her rooftop garden in Tehran after large explosions shook the city on Saturday.
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An explosion in the sea is seen from Haifa, Israel, on Saturday.
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People sort through rubble in Tehran on Saturday.
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People take shelter in Ashkelon, Israel, after missiles were launched from Iran on Saturday.
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People watch as smoke rises over the Tehran skyline after an explosion on Saturday, February 28.
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Smoke billows above the compound of Iran’s supreme leader in Tehran on Saturday.
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People play racketball outside an underground parking garage used as a shelter in Tel Aviv on Saturday.
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Rescue workers and residents search through the rubble of a girls’ elementary school in Minab, Iran, on Saturday.
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A missile is intercepetd over the Israeli coastal city of Netanya on Saturday.
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People in in Doha watch from their balcony following explosions after Qatar’s defense ministry said it had downed missiles targeting the country on Saturday.
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A person takes shelter as sirens sound in Jerusalem on Saturday.
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People take shelter under a highway bridge near Latrun, Israel, on Saturday.
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Birds fly overhead after an airstrike in Tehran on Saturday.
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The remains of a car are seen in Tehran on Saturday.
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Smoke rises from a burning building hit by an Iranian drone strike in Manama, Bahrain, on Saturday.
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A fire is seen in a damaged building after an Israeli airstrike in Beirut’s southern suburb neighborhood of Haret Hreik, in Lebanon, on March 2, 2026.
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Children sit on a sidewalk as displaced families fleeing Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon arrive in the southern port city of Sidon, early on Monday.
Mohammad Zaatari/AP
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In pictures: Middle East tensions escalate after US-Israel strikes on Iran
10. No natural endpoint
Wars, once begun, carry their own momentum with variables often not considered at the outset. It is impossible to predict 48 hours in where this is all leading. The main concern at this stage from Washington’s vantage point — even after the extraordinary military success — is that there’s no clear offramp or natural endpoint to the campaign. Even in the best case of an Iranian uprising against what’s left of the regime, those remnants will likely act to suppress protests once again with lethal force. It’s an open question whether the United States would then use air power to deter another crackdown. Those are the questions that must be considered — now.
Bottom line
Strategic and tactical advantage can coexist with profound uncertainty about where this all leads. That is likely the net assessment Trump is receiving.
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