By Joseph Ax
2026年3月3日 美国东部时间上午11:02 更新于39分钟前
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U.S. Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) recites the pledge of allegiance during a campaign event for re-election in Schertz, Texas, U.S. March 2, 2026. REUTERS/Joel Angel Juarez Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
- 摘要
- 得克萨斯州现任议员科恩面临失去共和党提名的危险
- 克罗克特与塔拉利科在得克萨斯州民主党提名竞选中势均力敌
- 获特朗普支持的惠特利在北卡罗来纳州竞选中民调领先
3月3日(路透社) – 得克萨斯州一场备受瞩目的美国参议院选举成为周二中期选举正式启动的焦点。当天,得克萨斯州、北卡罗来纳州和阿肯色州的选民将投出中期选举活动的首批选票,以决定在唐纳德·特朗普总统任期最后两年中,哪个政党将掌控美国国会。
周二的选举将确定这些州在11月大选中的共和党和民主党候选人,届时美国众议院全部435个席位以及参议院100个席位中的三分之一都将面临改选。
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此次选举发生在美国袭击伊朗数天后,一些白宫助手私下担忧,这一行动可能给特朗普及其共和党人带来政治风险,而选民明确表示,他们更关心国内问题,包括物价可负担性和移民问题。
11月的美国众议院竞选将尤为激烈,民主党只需拿下三个共和党人掌控的席位即可获得多数席位。但民主党赢得参议院的难度更大。
特朗普的支持率有所下降,而总统所在政党通常在中期选举中失去席位。如果民主党在任何一院获得多数席位,都可能阻挠特朗普大部分立法议程,并对其政府展开破坏性调查。
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得克萨斯州参议院选举暴露两党内部紧张局势
对于民主党和共和党而言,得克萨斯州这场激烈的参议院初选对决,为两党内部的分歧提供了早期考验。
现任共和党议员约翰·科恩(John Cornyn)是一位在参议院任职超过二十年的建制派保守派,他似乎面临失去党内提名的危险。挑战者是得克萨斯州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿(Ken Paxton),他是特朗普的激进盟友,尽管面临诸多丑闻,但在总统的“让美国再次伟大”(MAGA)基本盘仍深受欢迎。
科恩辩称,帕克斯顿若胜选,将把安全的共和党席位变成竞争激烈的战场,可能危及共和党本就微弱的参议院多数优势。而帕克斯顿则驳斥科恩与该州选民脱节。
两位候选人都吹嘘自己对特朗普的支持,包括支持对伊朗的军事打击。但总统尚未正式表态支持任何一方。
参议院共和党领导层支持科恩,科恩的盟友在广告投放上的支出高达6900万美元,远超帕克斯顿阵营的400万美元(数据来源:AdImpact追踪公司),这反映了共和党对帕克斯顿极化立场的担忧。
另有极右翼保守派众议员韦斯利·亨特(Wesley Hunt)也参与竞选,此次初选可能在5月选出前两名后进入决选。
在民主党方面,州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉利科(James Talarico)将基督教信仰作为竞选核心,并明确呼吁共和党选民支持自己,目前与以猛烈抨击特朗普而闻名、拥有全国影响力的众议员贾斯敏·克罗克特(Jasmine Crockett)形成势均力敌的竞争。
民主党长期以来希望将得克萨斯州变成蓝色州,但自1994年以来该党从未赢得过全州范围的选举。尽管如此,党内领袖表示,饱受丑闻困扰的帕克斯顿——他曾在共和党议员弹劾中幸存,面临证券欺诈指控,且经历了一场混乱的离婚——可能在11月变得脆弱。
分析师称,考虑到得克萨斯州保守派选民基础,帕克斯顿仍被视为热门人选。
休斯顿大学政治学教授布兰登·罗廷豪斯(Brandon Rottinghaus)表示:“肯·帕克斯顿仍然是一个在非常保守的州的共和党人,该州拥有懂得如何赢得选举的竞选机器。”
新选区划分打乱竞选格局
在北卡罗来纳州,选民将选出另一场关键参议院选举的候选人。共和党议员汤姆·蒂利斯(Thom Tillis)的退休,使得这个摇摆州出现了一个空缺席位。
民主党希望前民主党州长罗伊·库珀(Roy Cooper)能击败对手。库珀面临党内象征性的反对,在11月有望拿下该席位。这位受欢迎的库珀已六次赢得全州选举。
曾担任共和党全国委员会主席、获得特朗普背书的迈克尔·惠特利(Michael Whatley),在公开民调中大幅领先于其他六位共和党候选人。
周二的选举也将是得克萨斯州和北卡罗来纳州首次使用新的国会选区划分,这源于去年共和党议员在特朗普的要求下重新划分了两州的众议院选区,试图增加共和党席位,引发了全国性的选区划分争议。
得克萨斯州一些现任议员可能在周二面临挑战。共和党议员托尼·冈萨雷斯(Tony Gonzales)已面临保守派YouTuber的强劲挑战,同时在被指控与一名女员工存在关系后,该员工后来自杀身亡,他遭到两党要求辞职的呼吁,但他否认有罪。
在休斯顿地区,两位现任民主党议员阿尔·格林(Al Green)和克里斯蒂安·梅内菲(Christian Menefee)因新选区划分拆散了格林之前的选区而展开对决。
报道:Joseph Ax;补充报道:Nolan D. McCaskill;编辑:Paul Thomasch和Deepa Babington
我们的标准:路透社新闻原则
Texas Senate showdown kicks off midterms to determine control of US Congress
By Joseph Ax
March 3, 2026 11:02 AM UTC Updated 39 mins ago
节点运行失败
U.S. Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) recites the pledge of allegiance during a campaign event for re-election in Schertz, Texas, U.S. March 2, 2026. REUTERS/Joel Angel Juarez Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
- Texas incumbent Cornyn in danger of losing Republican nomination
- Crockett, Talarico in neck-and-neck race for Democratic nomination in Texas
- Whatley, backed by Trump, leads in polls in North Carolina race
March 3 (Reuters) – A hotly contested U.S. Senate race in Texas headlines the official start of the midterm elections on Tuesday, when voters in Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas cast the first ballots of the campaign to decide which party controls the U.S. Congress during President Donald Trump’s last two years in office.
Tuesday’s contests will determine the Republican and Democratic nominees for congressional races and other offices in those states for November’s general election, when all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate’s 100 seats will be at stake.
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The elections take place days after the U.S. attacked Iran, a move that some White House aides privately worry could pose political risks for Trump and Republicans at a time when voters have made it clear they are more concerned with domestic issues, including affordability and immigration.
November’s battle for the U.S. House of Representatives will be particularly hard-fought, with Democrats needing to flip only three Republican-held seats to capture a majority in the chamber. Democrats face longer odds in winning the Senate.
Trump’s approval ratings have fallen, and the president’s party typically loses seats in midterm elections. A Democratic majority in either chamber could block much of Trump’s legislative agenda and open damaging investigations into his administration.
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TEXAS SENATE RACE EXPOSES TENSIONS IN BOTH PARTIES
For both Democrats and Republicans, the bruising Senate primary contest in Texas has offered an early test of the divides roiling each party.
Incumbent Republican John Cornyn, an establishment conservative who has served more than two decades in the Senate, appears in danger of losing the party’s nomination to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a firebrand ally of Trump who has remained popular with the president’s MAGA base despite a multitude of scandals.
Cornyn has argued that a Paxton victory would turn a safe Republican seat into a competitive race that could imperil the party’s slim Senate majority, while Paxton has dismissed Cornyn as out of touch with the state’s voters.
Both candidates have touted their support for Trump, including backing the military strikes in Iran. The president has not made a formal endorsement.
Senate Republican leadership has backed Cornyn, whose allies have outspent Paxton’s side $69 million to $4 million on advertising, according to the tracking firm AdImpact, in a sign of the party’s concerns about the polarizing Paxton.
With another far-right conservative, U.S. Representative Wesley Hunt, also running, the contest is likely to advance to a run-off election in May between the top two finishers.
On the Democratic side, James Talarico, a state representative who has put his Christian faith at the center of his campaign and made explicit appeals to Republican voters, is in a neck-and-neck race with U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett, whose fiery denunciations of Trump have gained her a national following.
Democrats have long harbored hopes of turning Texas blue, but the party has not won a statewide race since 1994. Nevertheless, party leaders say the scandal-plagued Paxton – who has survived an impeachment by Republican lawmakers, a securities fraud indictment and a messy divorce – could prove vulnerable in November.
Analysts said Paxton would still be the favorite given Texas’ conservative electorate.
“Ken Paxton is still a Republican in a very Republican state that’s got a turnout machine that understands how to win elections,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a University of Houston political science professor.
NEW MAPS SCRAMBLE RACES
In North Carolina, voters will choose the nominees for another critical Senate race, where Republican Thom Tillis’ retirement has created a vacant seat in a swing state.
Democrats hope former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper, who faces token intraparty opposition, can flip the seat in November. The popular Cooper has won statewide six times.
Michael Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chairman who boasts Trump’s endorsement, has held a sizable lead in public polls over a half-dozen other Republican candidates.
Tuesday’s contests will also mark the first time that new congressional maps are used in Texas and North Carolina, after Republican lawmakers last year redrew the states’ U.S. House district lines at Trump’s behest to try to gain more Republican seats, igniting a nationwide redistricting fight.
Some incumbent House members in Texas could be ousted on Tuesday. Republican Tony Gonzales, already facing a tough race from a conservative YouTuber, has resisted bipartisan calls to resign after allegations that he had a relationship with a female staffer who later died by suicide. He has denied wrongdoing.
In the Houston area, two sitting Democratic congressmembers, Al Green and Christian Menefee, are facing each other after the new map dismantled Green’s previous seat.
Reporting by Joseph Ax; Additional reporting by Nolan D. McCaskill; editing by Paul Thomasch and Deepa Babington
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