2026年3月12日 / 美国东部时间下午4:14 / CBS新闻
作者：梅根·塞鲁洛（Megan Cerullo）
记者，MoneyWatch
梅根·塞鲁洛是总部位于纽约的CBS MoneyWatch记者，报道小型企业、职场、医疗保健、消费者支出和个人理财等主题。她经常出现在CBS新闻24/7频道讨论自己的报道。
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在2月28日美国和以色列袭击伊朗之前，平均每天有100艘船只安全通过霍尔木兹海峡。据船舶跟踪网站MarineTraffic称，周三只有一到两艘船穿越了这条狭窄的水道。
这条通常处理全球约20%日石油运输量的海峡重新通航，被广泛认为是降低伊朗战争导致的飙升能源价格的关键。
在接受CBS新闻的Major Garrett采访时，美国石油学会（American Petroleum Institute）首席执行官迈克·萨默斯（Mike Sommers）周三将海峡关闭描述为“全球经济的噩梦场景”。“霍尔木兹海峡输送的2000万桶石油是无可替代的，”萨默斯表示。
以下是专家们认为油轮重新通航必须满足的条件。
船只为何停运？
霍尔木兹海峡目前对商船航行而言风险过高，周三有疑似伊朗无人机袭击了海峡内及周边至少三艘船只。许多保险公司也已撤回了该地区油轮的保险。
“归根结底，这都是关于感知问题，因为我们的首要任务是保护人类生命和我们的船员，”总部位于希腊的航运公司Capital Clean Energy Carriers首席执行官杰里·卡洛吉拉托斯（Jerry Kalogiratos）告诉CBS新闻。
油轮何时返回海峡？
卡洛吉拉托斯表示，他正在寻找霍尔木兹海峡对海上交通安全的明确信号。
“假设一夜之间停火，伊朗称其安全，那么我们的船只将是首批进行过境的，”他说。
不足为奇的是，卡洛吉拉托斯也在密切关注少数穿越水道的船只，以观察它们是否能避免袭击。
金融服务公司麦格理集团（Macquarie Group）能源战略家维卡斯·杜维迪（Vikas Dwivedi）表示，连续几次安全通过海峡将鼓励更多船只航行。
“你需要的不仅仅是一两天内一两艘船——你希望看到这一趋势持续增长，”他告诉CBS新闻。“你希望证实没有欺诈行为，并且离开霍尔木兹海峡的船只能够抵达目的地港口。”
相比之下，卡洛吉拉托斯对白宫提出的为通过波斯湾的船只提供保险的提议并不那么放心。特朗普政府还提出派遣美国海军护航队保护船只在航道航行时免受袭击。
“我们需要确信船上伙伴的生命安全，”他说。
寻求缓和局势
市场情报提供商Sparta Commodities货运主管迈克尔·瑞安（Michael Ryan）告诉CBS新闻，航运公司必须看到伊朗军事威胁的持续减少才能重新通航。这将鼓励保险公司重新进入该地区，并将保费降至可控水平，减轻冒险通过水道的财务风险。
目前，实现这种安全水平似乎不太可能。周四，新任命的伊朗最高领袖赛义德·穆罕默德·哈梅内伊（Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei）在一份声明中表示，海峡必须保持关闭，据官方媒体报道。
“在威胁通过停火或谈判安排得到可靠解除之前，商业船只运营商不会大规模返回，”瑞安告诉CBS新闻。
如何判断船只正在航行？
这类船只配备了自动识别系统（AIS）追踪器，使其位置可被检测。
Kpler（MarineTraffic的所有者）发言人尼科斯·波希塔基斯（Nikos Pothitakis）告诉CBS新闻，虽然追踪系统通常是激活的，但有些船只会关闭AIS以试图在未被发现的情况下通过海峡。
根据MarineTraffic监测的数据，霍尔木兹海峡目前不存在正常的海上交通流，监测因素包括船只位置、载货量和速度。
“通常情况下，你会看到所有这些三角形小光点在海峡周围流畅移动，”瑞安说。“现在，有大量油轮聚集在海峡两侧，抛锚停泊。”
编辑：阿兰·谢特（Alain Sherter）
分类：
- 石油进口
- 伊朗
- 石油和天然气
- 霍尔木兹海峡
What will it take for ships to start sailing through the Strait of Hormuz again?
March 12, 2026 / 4:14 PM EDT / CBS News
By
Megan Cerullo Reporter, MoneyWatch
Megan Cerullo is a New York-based reporter for CBS MoneyWatch covering small business, workplace, health care, consumer spending and personal finance topics. She regularly appears on CBS News 24/7 to discuss her reporting.
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Before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, an average of 100 vessels per day would safely traverse the Strait of Hormuz. On Wednesday, only one or two ships crossed the narrow waterway, according to MarineTraffic, a ship tracking website.
Reopening the strait, which ordinarily handles some 20% of daily global oil shipments, is widely viewed as essential to bringing down the soaring energy prices caused by the Iran war.
In an interview with CBS News’ Major Garrett, American Petroleum Institute CEO Mike Sommers on Wednesday characterized the strait’s closure as a “nightmare scenario” for the global economy. “There is no replacing the 20 million barrels of oil that go through the Strait of Hormuz,” Sommers said.
Here’s what experts said must happen for oil tankers to start sailing again.
Why are ships stopped?
The Strait of Hormuz is currently too risky for commercial ships to navigate, with suspected Iranian drones on Wednesday striking at least three ships in and around the channel. Many insurers have also withdrawn coverage for tankers in the region.
“In the end, it’s all about perception, because our first priority is the protection of human life and our seafarers,” Jerry Kalogiratos, CEO of Capital Clean Energy Carriers, a shipping company based in Greece, told CBS News.
When will tankers return to the strait?
Kalogiratos said he is looking for clear signals that the Strait of Hormuz is safe for marine traffic.
“Let’s say there is a ceasefire overnight, and Iran says it’s safe. Then our ships would be the first to make the transit,” he said.
Not surprisingly, Kalogiratos is also keeping a close eye on the handful of ships that are crossing the waterway to see if they avoid attacks.
A succession of safe crossings of the strait would encourage more ships to sail, according to Vikas Dwivedi, energy strategist at Macquarie Group, a financial services firm.
“You’d need more than just one or two for a couple of days — you would want to see it building,” he told CBS News. “You want corroboration that there are no tricks being played and that ships leaving the Strait of Hormuz are arriving at destination ports.”
By contrast, Kalogiratos takes less comfort from the White House’s offer to insure ships traveling through the Persian Gulf. The Trump administration has also offered U.S. Navy escorts to protect ships from attack when navigating the channel.
“We need to feel confident that the lives of our partners aboard our vessels are safe,” he said.
Looking for de-escalation
Michael Ryan, head of freight at market intelligence provider Sparta Commodities, told CBS News that shipping companies would have to see a sustained reduction in military threat from Iran to start sailing again. That would encourage insurers to re-enter the region and bring premiums down to a manageable level, mitigating the financial risks of braving the waterway.
For now, achieving that level of security seems improbable. On Thursday, newly appointed Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said in a statement that the strait must remain shut, according to state-run media.
“Until that threat is credibly lifted, either through a ceasefire or a negotiated arrangement, commercial operators of the vessels won’t return in meaningful numbers,” Ryan told CBS News.
How will we know ships are sailing?
Such vessels are equipped with Automated Identification System (AIS) trackers that allow their locations to be detected.
While tracking systems are normally activated, some ships have deactivated their AIS in an effort to pass through the strait undetected, Nikos Pothitakis, a spokesperson for Kpler, which owns MarineTraffic, told CBS News.
The usual flow of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is currently nonexistent, according to MarineTraffic, which monitors factors including a vessel’s location, load size and speed.
“Normally, you would see all of these little dots of triangles moving fluidly around the strait,” Ryan said. “Right now, there are loads of tankers clustered together on either side of the strait, where they are sitting anchored.”
Edited by Alain Sherter
In:
- Oil Imports
- Iran
- Oil and Gas
- Strait of Hormuz
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