2026年6月3日 / 美国东部时间中午12:12 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻（CBS News）
作者：艾米丽·梅·查霍尔 新闻编辑
艾米丽·梅·查霍尔是CBSNews.com的记者兼新闻编辑，通常报道突发新闻、极端天气和气候议题。她曾为《洛杉矶时报》、BuzzFeed和《新闻周刊》等媒体撰稿。
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美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）本周警告称，预计将于未来几个月到来的厄尔尼诺现象，可能会在上一次大规模珊瑚白化事件结束仅一年后，再次引发新一轮大规模珊瑚白化。
该美国联邦机构同时也在全球范围内开展天气和气候研究，其表示，如果此次白化事件成真，这将是有记录以来第五次全球珊瑚白化事件。该机构周二发布的最新珊瑚白化展望报告预测，今年夏季，包括夏威夷在内的北太平洋大部分海域的珊瑚礁都面临着褪色的高风险。最新报告还指出，佛罗里达周边及加勒比海的珊瑚礁也可能面临同样威胁。
珊瑚礁是至关重要的水下生态系统，为海洋生物提供广泛支持，是约四分之一海洋物种的栖息地。海洋温度升高带来的过度压力会导致珊瑚退化，使其失去色素并变白。
近几十年来，珊瑚白化现象频繁发生，其中不乏广为人知的大规模事件，许多科学家将这一模式归因于气候变化。去年10月，埃克塞特大学的研究人员宣称，经过多年的持续退化，珊瑚礁已成为地球上第一个跨越气候“临界点”的生态系统。
2017年大规模白化事件期间大堡礁的珊瑚白化。布雷特·门罗·加纳 / 盖蒂图片社
负责编制NOAA珊瑚白化展望报告的珊瑚礁观察项目协调人德里克·曼泽洛在一份声明中表示，追踪大规模白化事件颇具挑战，因为持续的热应力如今使得白化事件比以往任何时候都更为常见。而与海洋温度升高相关的厄尔尼诺现象的出现，预示着下一次白化事件可能很快就会到来。
他说：“我们如今正处于珊瑚几乎每年都会发生白化的时代，这意味着确定全球白化事件的开始和结束时间正变得越来越困难。未来我们将依靠实地白化观测来确定全球白化事件是否发生以及何时发生。”
研究表明，上一次影响全球84%珊瑚礁、打破纪录的大规模白化事件于2025年年中结束。NOAA表示，如果厄尔尼诺现象如预期般在今年夏季出现，那么珊瑚白化可能会在6月至9月间大规模卷土重来。
科学家们目前基本可以确定厄尔尼诺现象将在秋季到来前出现，但仍在努力确定其具体到来时间和强度。该机构表示，厄尔尼诺现象越强，引发全球珊瑚白化的可能性就越大，因为自1998年以来，每一次强厄尔尼诺现象都与全球珊瑚白化事件相伴发生。
海洋热应力也变得更为严重和广泛，当前的海表温度比近30年前第一次大规模白化事件时还要高。
尽管海洋变暖对珊瑚礁健康的影响已有充分记录，但科学家们也发现珊瑚具有恢复力。NOAA表示，在2024年至2025年的创纪录白化事件中，仍有一些珊瑚礁在海洋高温环境下抵御住了白化。
NOAA珊瑚礁保护项目主任詹妮弗·科斯在一份声明中表示，该机构正在研究“珊瑚耐热性的多个方面”。
她说：“这将帮助我们更好地了解珊瑚的恢复力，并改进全国范围内的珊瑚修复策略和技术。”
El Niño could bring more widespread coral bleaching, NOAA warns
June 3, 2026 / 12:12 PM EDT / CBS News
By Emily Mae Czachor News Editor
Emily Mae Czachor is a reporter and news editor at CBSNews.com. She typically covers breaking news, extreme weather and climate. Emily Mae previously wrote for outlets like the Los Angeles Times, BuzzFeed and Newsweek.
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The expected arrival of El Niño in the next few months could trigger another mass coral bleaching event, just a year after the last one’s conclusion, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warned this week.
This would mark the fifth global bleaching incident in recorded history if it comes to fruition, said NOAA, a U.S. federal agency that also conducts weather and climate research around the world. Its updated coral bleaching outlook, shared Tuesday, predicts that reefs are at a high risk of losing their colors this summer across much of the northern Pacific Ocean, including Hawaii. Reefs surrounding Florida and the Caribbean may face the same threats, the latest outlook said.
Coral reefs are vital underwater ecosystems that broadly support marine life and provide habitats for approximately one-fourth of all marine species. The undue stress of higher ocean temperatures can cause them to deteriorate, stripping them of their pigments and turning them white.
Visible bleaching has occurred often and at times infamously in recent decades, a pattern that many scientists attribute to climate change. Last October, researchers at the University of Exeter declared coral reefs the first environmental system on Earth to pass a climate “tipping point,” after years of repeated degradation.
Coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef during a mass bleaching event in 2017. Brett Monroe Garner / Getty Images
Derek Manzello, who coordinates the Coral Reef Watch program that produced NOAA’s bleaching outlook, said in a statement that tracking mass bleaching events is challenging because ongoing heat stress means they are more common now than ever before. But the onset of El Niño, which is associated with warmer ocean temperatures, indicates the next one may be happening soon.
“We are now in the era where reefs will bleach on a near-annual basis, which means defining when global events begin and end is becoming increasingly difficult,” he said. “The plan moving forward is to rely on field bleaching observations to determine if and when global events are happening.”
Research suggests the last global bleaching event — which impacted 84% of the world’s reefs, breaking records — ended halfway through 2025. If El Niño emerges as anticipated this summer, NOAA said coral bleaching could return in a big way between June and September.
Scientists are fairly certain at this point that El Niño will arrive before the fall season begins, but they are still working to determine exactly when it will happen and how strong it will be. The stronger it is, the more likely it will prompt global coral bleaching, NOAA said, because global bleaching events have coincided with every strong El Niño since 1998.
Heat stress has also become more severe and widespread, and sea surface temperatures are currently higher than they were during the first mass bleaching event almost three decades ago.
Although the consequences of warming oceans on reef health have been well-documented, scientists also found coral to be resilient. During the record-breaking bleaching event that ocurred between 2024 and 2025, there were some reefs that resisted bleaching despite high ocean temperatures, NOAA said.
Jennifer Koss, director of NOAA’s reef conservation program, said in a statement that the agency is studying “multiple aspects of heat tolerance in corals.”
“This will help us better understand resilience in corals and improve coral restoration strategies and techniques across the nation,” she said.
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