发布时间：2026年2月26日，美国东部时间上午5:30 / 34分钟前 | CNN政治
[吴爱德华]
得克萨斯州奥斯汀一处投票站附近的十字路口，竞选标志林立。2月17日（周二）。
Eric Gay/美联社
美国参议院得克萨斯州初选（下周二举行）前的早期投票数据显示，民主党投票人数急剧上升，表明该党选民基础的热情持续高涨。
根据美联社的数据，截至周二，民主党初选中约有85万张选票已投出。这一数字比2020年民主党总统初选中同期的投票数高出近60%——2020年是得克萨斯州上一次举行具有重大竞争性民主党竞选的全州范围初选。
这一数字也超过了2022年民主党州长初选和2024年民主党总统初选中的全部提前投票总数的两倍多。在剩余几天的提前投票和选举日投票中，许多人口较多的县已经超过了当年的初选总投票数。
在共和党方面，提前投票人数比2022年同期高出约15%，略低于2024年初选前一周的投票人数。这也略高于2020年同期的共和党投票人数——当时唐纳德·特朗普面临的反对者相对较少。
自唐纳德·特朗普重返白宫以来，有越来越多的证据表明民主党选民投票动力更强。过去一年中，民主党候选人在众议院特别选举和全州范围内的竞选中表现优于2024年总统选举的优势，而且在CNN的民调中，民主党选民始终更有可能表示自己投票意愿极为强烈。
得克萨斯州民主党初选中的投票人数是否会超过共和党？
选民在达拉斯排队参加2月17日（周二）的初选提前投票。
LM Otero/美联社
民主党初选中激增的选民人数，提高了更多得克萨斯州选民将在民主党初选中投票而非共和党初选的可能性。
近年来，得克萨斯州民主党仅在有竞争性总统选举时才能与共和党初选投票人数持平。2008年总统初选中，民主党投票人数远高于共和党；2020年初选中，选民投票数大致相当。
每年在得克萨斯州投票时，民主党方面都有一场极具竞争力的竞选，而共和党方面的竞争则相对较少，这推动了民主党初选中的相对投票人数增加。今年的民主党和共和党参议院初选都颇具竞争力。
到目前为止，今年初选中约54%的选票来自民主党。这一比例远超2022年或2024年民主党投票的进度。早期投票往往比选举日投票略微偏向民主党，而在那两年，最终选民（包括选举日选票）的民主党比例比此时的早期投票低约2个百分点。
如果今年的投票遵循同样的趋势，那么得克萨斯州初选中将有略多数的选民选择民主党而非共和党。
即使民主党参与度的激增持续到下周二，这种模式在投票人数更高的大选年可能不会延续。初选往往吸引最热情的选民，而大选时选民人数会扩大。2008年，民主党总统初选中的投票人数是共和党初选的两倍——而民主党候选人巴拉克·奥巴马最终却以两位数的差距输给了共和党候选人约翰·麦凯恩。
阿肯色州和北卡罗来纳州的民主党投票人数也有所增加
共和党美国参议院候选人迈克尔·惠特利（左二）和妻子苏珊娜于2月12日在北卡罗来纳州加斯托尼亚的一处提前投票站投票。
Erik Verduzco/美联社
选民也在周二前在阿肯色州和北卡罗来纳州提前投票，迹象显示民主党投票人数相对于以往选举有所增加。
截至周二，北卡罗来纳州民主党参议院初选中约有25万张选票已投出，比2022年同期高出50%以上。共和党参议院初选中的投票人数增加了约8%，尽管今年共和党竞选的竞争程度预计低于2022年。
登记的民主党选民投出的选票多于共和党选民（42%对28%，其余30%为无党派选民）。这14个百分点的差距比2022年同期的8个百分点（41%对33%）有所扩大。无党派选民也更倾向于在民主党初选中投票：今年约55%的无党派选民选择了民主党初选，而2022年这一比例为36%。
在阿肯色州，截至周二，民主党参议院初选中已投出近4万张选票（接近2022年提前投票总数的80%，还有几天提前投票时间）。共和党初选中已投出超过8万张选票，略低于2022年提前投票总数的50%。
Democratic primary turnout is surging in Texas, according to early voting data
PUBLISHED Feb 26, 2026, 5:30 AM ET / 34 min ago | CNN Politics
[Edward Wu]
Election signs crowd an intersection near a polling place in Austin, Texas, Tuesday, February 17.
Eric Gay/AP
Early voting data ahead of next Tuesday’s US Senate primaries in Texas suggest a sharp rise in Democratic turnout, pointing to a continuing trend of strong enthusiasm among the party’s base.
Through Tuesday, about 850,000 ballots had been cast in the Democratic primary, according to data from the Associated Press. That’s nearly 60% more than the number of votes cast at the same point in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary, the last statewide primary in Texas to feature a major competitive Democratic contest.
It’s also more than the entire advance turnout and over double the number of votes cast on the equivalent day in the 2022 Democratic gubernatorial and 2024 Democratic presidential primaries. Many of the more populous counties exceeded their entire primary turnout for those years with several days of early voting and Election Day remaining.
On the Republican side, advance turnout was about 15% higher than it was at this point in 2022 and slightly trailed turnout one week out from the 2024 primary. It was also slightly ahead of Republican turnout at this point in 2020, when Donald Trump faced only marginal opposition.
There’s growing evidence of a Democratic advantage in motivation to vote since Donald Trump returned to the White House. Through the last year, Democratic candidates have outperformed 2024 presidential margins in House special elections and statewide races, and Democratic voters have consistently been more likely to describe themselves as extremely motivated to vote in CNN’s polling.
Could more votes be cast in Texas’ Democratic primary than the GOP contest?
Voters stand in line to vote early for the primary election, in Dallas, Tuesday, February 17.
LM Otero/AP
The surge of voters in the Democratic primary raises the possibility that more Texans will cast ballots in the Democratic primary than the Republican one.
Democrats in Texas have only matched GOP primary numbers in recent years when they have had competitive presidential elections. Democratic turnout was much higher than Republican turnout in the 2008 presidential primaries, and voters split roughly evenly in casting their ballots in the 2020 primaries.
Each year featured a highly competitive race on the Democratic side but less of one on the Republican side by the time Texas voted, which boosted relative turnout in the Democratic primaries. Both the Democratic and Republican Senate primaries are competitive this year.
So far, about 54% of votes cast in this year’s primaries have been on the Democratic side. That ratio far outpaces the Democratic pace of casting votes in 2022 or 2024. Early votes tend to tilt slightly more Democratic than Election Day votes do, and in both of those years, the final electorate (including Election Day ballots) was about 2 points less Democratic relative to the early vote at this point.
If this year’s vote follows the same trend, a narrow majority of Texas primary voters would have cast their ballots in the Democratic over the Republican primary.
Even if the primary surge in Democratic participation holds through next Tuesday, the pattern may not hold in the much higher turnout general election. Primaries tend to attract the most enthusiastic voters, while the electorate expands in general elections. In 2008, the Democratic presidential primary had double the turnout of the Republican primary – and Democrat Barack Obama went on to lose the state to Republican John McCain by double digits.
Democratic turnout is also strong in Arkansas and North Carolina
Republican US Senate candidate Michael Whatley, second from left, and his wife Suzanne cast their votes at an early voting site on February 12, in Gastonia, North Carolina.
Erik Verduzco/AP
Voters are also casting votes in Arkansas and North Carolina ahead of Tuesday, and signs point to an increase in Democratic turnout relative to past races.
Roughly a quarter million votes had been cast in North Carolina’s Democratic Senate primary through Tuesday, up over 50% relative to the equivalent day in 2022. Turnout was up a more modest 8% in the Republican Senate primary, though the GOP race is expected to be less competitive this year than it was in 2022.
Registered Democrats had cast more ballots than registered Republicans (42% to 28%, with the remaining 30% of voters unaffiliated). This 14-point gap was up from 8 points on the equivalent day in 2022 (41% to 33%). Unaffiliated voters are also more likely to have cast ballots in the Democratic primary: Roughly 55% of unaffiliated voters cast a ballot in the Democratic primary over the Republican primary this year, up from 36% choosing the Democratic ballot in 2022.
In Arkansas, nearly 40,000 votes had been cast in the Democratic Senate primary through Tuesday (nearly 80% of total advance turnout in 2022, with several days left of early voting to go). Over 80,000 votes had been cast in the Republican primary, just under 50% of the 2022 total advance vote.
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