2026-06-17T18:28:54.421Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/17/politics/analysis-trump-iran-deal
- 2015年，唐纳德·特朗普曾批评巴拉克·奥巴马总统的伊朗核谈判，警告称急于达成协议是最糟糕的谈判失误。
- 如今特朗普本人的政府却公开承认其急于摆脱伊朗冲突，多名官员表示他们希望尽快了结此事。
- 特朗普在七国集团峰会上宣称，他的伊朗协议之外的选项将是一场全球大萧条。
2015年奥巴马政府就伊朗核协议进行谈判临近尾声时，当时还是总统候选人的唐纳德·特朗普援引自己的著作《交易的艺术》给出了建议。
“给奥巴马关于伊朗的忠告：‘在谈判中最糟糕的事莫过于看起来急于达成协议’，”他在推特上写道。
特朗普及其政府如今在试图与伊朗达成新的核协议时，正犯下这一致命错误。
事实上，他们看起来甚至已经放弃声称美伊之间的谅解备忘录（MOU）对美国有利。特朗普政府明确表示，他们只是想结束这场战争。
特朗普想要抽身的迫切愿望早已显露无遗：他多次收回威胁，淡化伊朗的挑衅行为，并拒绝恢复大规模敌对行动。
但在过去24小时里，这种态度从潜台词变成了公开表态。
政府多次暗示，他们对这份谅解备忘录的处理是在迁就伊朗。
最引人注目的或许是政府匿名发表的言论。
“团队的共识是，我们希望尽快了结此事，而达成协议是最大化我们收益、最小化我们损失的途径，”一名直接参与谈判的政府官员告诉CNN的阿莱娜·特里恩。
想要“尽快了结此事”，听起来和特朗普2015年警告过的内容如出一辙。
就算这番话还没让你警觉，看看那位美国官员的表态吧，他敦促人们不要“对谅解备忘录的措辞过度解读”，并称这份文件是一份“政治文件”。
“比实际文件更重要的是我们之间达成的谅解，”该官员补充道。
这名官员还表示，特朗普的谈判团队“拟定的措辞可以让伊朗为其国内政治说出他们需要说的话”。
特朗普于周三在法国七国集团峰会的新闻发布会上呼应了这一说法。
“有些内容甚至没有被写入协议，”特朗普说，“但我们有一些不成文的谅解。如果他们不遵守，我们可能会重新对他们发动轰炸，直到他们遵守为止。”
这是相当离谱的诡辩。突然间，政府的谈判不再以实际达成的成果为评判标准，转而……要看双方之间的“氛围”？
当然，现在不难理解他们为何要采取这种说辞。美国周三公布的协议包含多项对伊朗的让步——包括立即让德黑兰获利的条款。而伊朗的让步主要只是恢复战前状态：开放霍尔木兹海峡，并（再次）承诺不研发核武器。
而声称这是为了满足伊朗的政治需求，听上去完全不像美国在以强势地位谈判并强加自己的意志。
还有特朗普周三在七国集团峰会上的发言，他语出惊人地称，他达成的协议是为了避免“全球大萧条”。
“替代方案将是一场全球大萧条，”他说，“那些愚蠢的人想要引发全球大萧条，他们就是一群蠢货。”
特朗普补充道：“你不能做得太过分。你把人逼到绝境，就会发生很多坏事。首先，霍尔木兹海峡永远不会开放，因为当有火箭在头顶飞过、到处都是水雷的时候，他们不会愿意让价值数十亿美元的船只在海峡上来回航行。霍尔木兹海峡……很长一段时间都不会开放。”
这几乎是总统最直白的承认：伊朗的杠杆作用已经过大，他需要见好就收，能拿到多少就拿多少。
谈判仍有大量工作要做。这实际上只是谈判进程的开端，周五协议正式签署后，未来60天内将展开难度大得多的谈判。
但对于《交易的艺术》的作者及其政府而言，从言辞上预先放弃如此多的谈判筹码，实在令人震惊。
On Iran, Trump is committing the cardinal sin from the ‘Art of the Deal’
2026-06-17T18:28:54.421Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/17/politics/analysis-trump-iran-deal
- In 2015, Donald Trump criticized President Barack Obama’s Iran nuclear negotiations, warning that appearing desperate to make a deal was the worst negotiating mistake.
- Now Trump’s own administration is openly acknowledging its eagerness to exit the Iran conflict, with officials stating they want to get this thing over with.
- The president declared at the G7 summit that the alternative to his Iran agreement would be a worldwide depression.
Toward the end of the Obama administration’s negotiations over its Iran nuclear deal in 2015, then-presidential candidate Donald Trump chimed in with some advice from his book, “The Art of the Deal.”
“Message to Obama re: Iran: ‘The worst thing you can possibly do in a deal is seem desperate to make it,’” he posted on Twitter.
Trump and his administration are now committing this cardinal sin in their efforts to obtain their own nuclear deal with Iran.
In fact, it looks a lot like they’re giving up on even claiming their memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Iran is a favorable document to the US. The Trump administration is making it abundantly clear they just want out of this war.
Trump’s overriding desire to extract himself has been clear for a long time; he has repeatedly pulled back on his threats, downplayed Iranian provocations and resisted a return to large-scale hostilities.
But over the last 24 hours, this attitude has moved from the subtext to the text.
The administration has repeatedly suggested that its handling of the MOU is about catering to Iran.
Perhaps most striking were comments the administration made without attribution.
“The consensus of the team was we want to get this thing over with, and the deal is the way to do it in a way that maximizes our upside and minimizes our downside,” an administration official directly involved in the talks told CNN’s Alayna Treene.
Wanting to “get this thing over with” sounds a lot like what Trump warned against in 2015.
And in case that quote didn’t raise your eyebrows, witness the US official who urged people not to “read too much into the language of the MOU,” which they called a “political document.”
“What’s more important than the actual document is the understandings we have with each other,” the official added.
The official added that Trump’s negotiating team “came up with language that allows (Iran) to say what they need to say for their domestic politics.”
Trump echoed that on Wednesday at a press conference at the G7 summit in France.
“Some things aren’t even mentioned in the agreement,” Trump said, adding, “But we have an understanding of certain things without writing it. And if they don’t honor that, we’ll probably go back to bombing them until they honor it.”
That’s an astounding level of spin. Suddenly, the administration’s negotiations shouldn’t be judged on what they’ve actually produced, but instead … the vibes between the two sides?
Of course, it’s now easy to see why they’re going with this line. The agreement released by the US Wednesday includes numerous US concessions to Iran — including immediate ones that would enrich Tehran. Iran’s concessions, meanwhile, are mainly just a return to its pre-war footing by opening the Strait of Hormuz and (again) committing to not obtaining a nuclear weapon.
And the suggestion that this is about catering to the political needs of the Iranians certainly doesn’t sound like the US is negotiating from a position of strength and imposing its will.
Then there was Trump on Wednesday at the G7, where he said, remarkably, that the agreement he made was necessary to avert a “worldwide depression.”
“The alternative would be a worldwide depression,” he said. “You know, the stupid people want to have a worldwide depression. And they’re stupid people.”
Trump added: “You can only go so far. You drive somebody into the ground, a lot of bad things happen. Number one, the strait would never open, because they don’t like floating billion-dollar ships up and down the strait when there are rockets flying over them and mines all over the place. The strait … wouldn’t be open for a long time.”
That’s about as blunt as the president can get in acknowledging that Iran’s leverage just proved too much and that he needed to cut bait and get what he could.
There is still much to negotiate. This is really the beginning of the process, with the much-more-difficult negotiations set for the next 60 days after the agreement is formally signed on Friday.
But for the author of the “Art of the Deal” and his administration to rhetorically concede so much leverage up front is shocking.
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