2026年6月17日 / 美国东部时间下午3:18 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
美联储周三在通胀回升的背景下维持基准利率不变，但近半数政策制定者表示，他们将支持今年晚些时候加息。
美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将影响消费者和企业借贷成本的联邦基金利率维持在当前3.5%至3.75%的区间内。经济学家此前普遍预计美联储会维持利率不变。
此前FOMC政策声明中用于暗示央行倾向降息的所谓“宽松倾向”表述已从本次6月政策指引中移除，此次声明也比通常的声明精简不少。
“你可能已经注意到了，今天的政策声明有所不同，”沃什在讨论美联储最新利率决议的新闻发布会上表示。“它更简短、更简洁，摒弃了一些旧表述。这份声明尽可能地为我们呈现我们所能判断的事实。”
美联储周三还发布了《经济 projections摘要》，数据显示近半数FOMC成员表示可能支持今年晚些时候加息。维持利率不变的投票结果一致，所有FOMC投票成员都赞成维持当前利率区间。
“通胀相对于委员会设定的2%目标仍然居高不下，部分原因是供应冲击推高了包括能源在内的特定行业的价格涨幅，”FOMC在周三的声明中表示。
“今天的会议证实，美联储近期的鹰派转向不仅仅是针对能源价格上涨，”高盛资产管理固定收益与流动性解决方案全球主管兼首席投资官凯·海因在一封电子邮件中表示。“尽管近期油价有所回落，但半数FOMC成员预计最快今年就会加息，这反映出强劲的劳动力市场和通胀数据。”
海因补充道：“我们的基本情景仍然是美联储基本可以避免加息，但这条道路很狭窄，即将公布的通胀数据将具有极高的参考价值。”
本周的会议是新任美联储主席凯文·沃什主持的首次会议，沃什是由特朗普总统提名，接替前主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的。
投资者和经济学家将密切关注沃什在东部时间下午2:30举行的新闻发布会，以了解他计划如何让美国经济保持正轨，以及他对通胀和劳动力市场的看法。
特朗普曾多次施压鲍威尔——鲍威尔的美联储主席任期于5月结束——要求降息。但随着美国通胀达到三年多来的最高水平，远高于美联储2%的年度目标，许多经济学家预计FOMC今年年底前将按兵不动。
“沃什在首次会议上有两项紧迫任务：让FOMC和更广泛的美联储领导层在未来的愿景上达成一致，并确保市场对他的工作充满信心，”投资公司哈弗福德信托的投资策略主管汉克·史密斯在会议前的一封电子邮件中表示。
史密斯补充道：“当前的环境不适合降息或加息——适合的是‘稳步前行’——我会留意他在首次新闻发布会上是否展现出这种纪律性和团队建设能力。”
美联储最新通胀预测
美联储经济预测的另一项重大变化是对2026年通胀预期的大幅上调。美联储3月份发布的此前预测显示，作为美联储首选通胀指标的个人消费支出指数年底的年化增长率将达到2.7%。
但在本次预测中，FOMC成员预计到年底通胀年化率将升至3.6%。剔除波动较大的能源和汽油价格后，通胀可能达到3.3%。
“中位官员现在预计，到今年年底整体通胀和核心通胀都将远高于3%，到2027年底核心通胀将达到2.5%，”牛津经济研究院在给投资者的报告中表示。
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady but leaves door open to hike
June 17, 2026 / 3:18 PM EDT / CBS News
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday left its benchmark interest rate unchanged amid resurgent inflation, but nearly half of its policymakers said they would support a rate hike later this year.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept the federal funds rate, which affects borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, in its current range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Economists had widely expected the central bank to keep rates steady.
The so-called easing bias — a sentence in recent FOMC policy statements signaling the central bank was leaning toward cutting interest rates — was removed from the June guidance, which was significantly slimmer than the typical statement.
“You might have already noticed something, a difference in today’s policy statement,” Warsh said in a press conference to discuss the Fed’s latest interest rate decision. “It’s a bit shorter, a bit simpler and it dispenses with some older language. That statement just gives you the facts as best we can judge it.”
The Fed also released its Summary of Economic Projections on Wednesday, which shows that nearly half of FOMC members said they could support a rate hike later this year. The vote to keep rates steady was unanimous, with all FOMC voting members in favor of maintaining the current range.
“Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2% goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy,” the FOMC said in Wednesday’s statement.
“Today’s meeting confirms that the Fed’s recent hawkish shift was not just about higher energy prices,” Kay Haigh, global head and CIO of Fixed Income and Liquidity Solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said in an email. “Despite the recent pullback in oil, half of the members of the FOMC expect rate hikes as soon as this year, reflecting strong labor market and inflation data.
Haigh added, “Our base case remains that the Fed can just about avoid hikes, but the path is narrow, and there will be a high premium on the incoming inflation data.”
This week’s meeting is the first presided over by new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, who was picked by President Trump to succeed former chair Jerome Powell.
Investors and economists will be closely watching Warsh during his 2:30 p.m. ET press conference for indications of how he plans to keep the U.S. economy on track, as well as his outlook on inflation and the labor market.
Mr. Trump had repeatedly pressed Powell, whose term as Fed chief ended in May, to lower interest rates. But with U.S. inflation at its highest level in more than three years and well above the Fed’s 2% annual target, many economists expect the FOMC to remain on the sidelines through year-end.
“Warsh has two immediate jobs at this first meeting: getting the FOMC and the broader Fed leadership aligned with his vision going forward, and making sure the markets have confidence in what he’s doing,” said Hank Smith, head of investment strategy at investment firm Haverford Trust, in an email before the meeting.
Smith added, “This is not the environment for a rate cut or a rate hike — it’s an environment for ‘steady as she goes’ — and I’ll be listening for whether he projects that kind of discipline and team-building in his first press conference.”
The Fed’s new inflation forecast
Another major change in the Fed’s economic projections is a sharp increase in inflation expectations for 2026. The central bank’s previous forecast, issued in March, forecast that the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, would end the year at an annual rate of 2.7%.
But in today’s forecast, the FOMC members are penciling in inflation rising to an annualized 3.6% by year-end. Excluding volatile energy and gas prices, inflation could hit 3.3%.
“The median official now expects headline and core inflation well above 3% by the end of this year, and core inflation to reach 2.5% by end-2027,” Oxford Economics said in a note to investors.
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