2026-06-04T17:43:01.600Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
民主党要掌控参议院仍需克服重重难关，但近期的几场胜利和民调结果显示，局势可能正朝着对他们有利的方向发展。
近期民调显示，民主党在通用国会选票中领先两位数优势，同时在俄亥俄州和得克萨斯州也具备竞争力。
初选结果已帮助民主党在艾奥瓦州、蒙大拿州和得克萨斯州推出了他们心仪的候选人，提升了该党的竞选前景。
本文由AI生成摘要，并经CNN编辑审核。
民主党在2026年中期选举中显然占据了势头优势。但要拿下参议院控制权，他们需要做出相当非同寻常的举措：很至少必须赢得至少两个2024年总统大选时唐纳德·特朗普以两位数优势拿下的州。
最有可能的目标似乎是阿拉斯加州（特朗普得票领先13个百分点）、艾奥瓦州（特朗普领先13个百分点）、俄亥俄州（特朗普领先11个百分点）和得克萨斯州（特朗普领先14个百分点）。拿下这些州都需要出现大幅选民倾向转变。一些次级目标可能包括蒙大拿州（特朗普领先20个百分点）和内布拉斯加州（特朗普领先20个百分点），民主党似乎将希望寄托在这两州的独立候选人身上。
但近期的动态为民主党增添了越来越多值得期待的理由：
- 艾奥瓦州、得克萨斯州和蒙大拿州等州的初选结果完全符合民主党预期。
- “通用国会选票”民调——即让选民在不具名的民主党和共和党候选人之间做出选择——的趋势正显著向民主党倾斜。
- 我们在关键州获得的有限高质量民调数据——比如俄亥俄州最新的福克斯新闻民调——显示，拿下这些特朗普以两位数优势获胜的州并非没有可能。
这并不意味着当前一切都对民主党有利；例如，缅因州民主党参议院候选人格雷厄姆·普拉特纳的持续负面爆料，就给这个民主党大概率需要拿下的蓝色州蒙上了阴影。
（民主党需要再拿下4个席位才能掌控参议院，而他们最轻松的目标本应是缅因州和北卡罗来纳州。）
但他们已经拥有了多个向好的关键信号。
周二，民主党高层在艾奥瓦州敲定了心仪的候选人：州众议员乔希·图雷克，他是一名残奥会运动员，曾在一个支持特朗普的选区赢得选举。这促使一些选举分析师将该州重新归类为更具竞争力的选区。
同一天，民主党在蒙大拿州也取得了某种程度的胜利。具体而言，该党推出了一名资金不足的民主党候选人，这理论上为独立候选人打开了大门——该独立候选人更有可能赢得选举，阻止共和党拿下该席位，或者至少迫使共和党花费超出预期的资金在该州的竞选上。
再往前追溯，得克萨斯州的候选人对阵情况也正是民主党所期望的。他们在民主党初选中推举了州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉利科，而非激进派众议员贾斯敏·克罗克特；随后共和党初选 runoff中，他们又助力州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿击败了参议员约翰·科宁。
仍有几场关键初选尚未结束——尤其是密歇根州的民主党初选——但迄今为止，局势的发展对民主党十分有利。
通用国会选票是中期选举民调的常规项目，该调查询问选民在选区竞选中更倾向于投票给不具名的共和党候选人还是民主党候选人。这是一种无需逐场民调就能了解全国竞选环境的方式。
曾有一段时间，民主党似乎未能建立起他们期望的优势——这可能归咎于民主党自身的糟糕形象。
但现在有一些迹象表明局势正在转变。
尽管部分民调仍显示这一指标在登记选民中差距微弱——比如一个月前的CNN民调（民主党领先3个百分点），以及本周公布的马凯特大学法学院民调（民主党以46%对45%小幅领先）——但近期的一些高质量民调发现民主党已取得两位数领先优势。
其中包括《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院民调、昆尼皮亚克大学民调均显示民主党领先11个百分点，以及NPR/PBS/马里斯特学院民调显示民主党领先10个百分点。
正是这类优势幅度让民主党有理由相信，他们有可能拿下那些特朗普以两位数优势获胜的州。
尽管州一级的民调数据仍处于早期阶段且样本有限，但近期可获得的有限民调结果对民主党十分有利。
周三公布的一项针对俄亥俄州登记选民的福克斯新闻民调就是一个典型例子。
该民调显示，民主党前参议员谢罗德·布朗以53%对45%的8个百分点优势领先任命的共和党参议员乔恩·赫斯特德。而该州在2024年大选中特朗普曾以11个百分点优势获胜。如果这一差距在11月的实际投票中保持不变，意味着选民倾向出现了19个百分点的转向。
这一结果与布朗在2018年特朗普首次任期中期选举时以6个百分点优势获胜的情况类似——那次选举对民主党而言整体表现亮眼。
民调还显示，布朗争取到了大量跨党派选民。福克斯民调显示，他获得了13%的共和党选民支持、14%的2024年特朗普选民支持，以及31%的不认同“让美国再次伟大”运动的共和党选民支持。
得克萨斯州的民调结果类似，尽管数据稍旧。4月底至5月初的得克萨斯南方大学/YouGov民调显示塔拉利科与帕克斯顿以45%持平，而更早的得克萨斯大学/得克萨斯政治项目民调显示塔拉利科以42%对34%领先8个百分点。
两项民调均显示塔拉利科在独立选民中领先超过20个百分点。即便差距较小的那项民调也显示，帕克斯顿未能完全巩固共和党选民的支持。
这两个州的民调还有另一个关键共同点：所有民调都显示民主党参议院候选人的表现优于其他民主党候选人，比如州长候选人。这表明民主党提名的候选人组合相当有利。
最后值得一提的是缅因州的另一项近期民调。5月底的新罕布什尔大学民调是在普拉特纳的负面爆料公布前开展的，但该民调证实了民主党整体的向好势头。
在可能投票的选民中，普拉特纳以51%对42%领先共和党籍五届参议员苏珊·柯林斯。
尤其令民主党鼓舞的是，普拉特纳似乎争取到了更多民主党选民的支持（获得91%的民主党选民票），而柯林斯争取到的共和党选民支持率仅为80%。
这与柯林斯2020年连任选举的情况截然相反，当时出口民调显示她获得了91%的共和党选民支持，而她的民主党对手仅获得84%的民主党选民支持。
上个月马萨诸塞大学洛厄尔分校与YouGov联合开展的另一项缅因州民调显示，普拉特纳以48%对43%领先柯林斯。
众所周知，缅因州的民调难度极大。在2020年的选举中，柯林斯在所有公开民调中均落后，最终却以9个百分点的优势令人意外地赢得连任。显然，普拉特纳的负面爆料可能会影响选举结果。
尽管如此，当前的数据仍清晰表明，民主党拿下参议院控制权的可能性正与日俱增。考虑到俄亥俄州和得克萨斯州的民调结果，人们有理由相信民主党有能力在阿拉斯加州乃至艾奥瓦州展开竞争。
本文已补充最新民调数据进行更新。
Could Democrats win the Senate? Their chances seem to be improving
2026-06-04T17:43:01.600Z / CNN
Democrats have a tough road to take control of the Senate, but some recent wins and polling show things could be trending their way.
Recent polling shows Democrats leading by double digits on the generic ballot and competitive in Ohio and Texas.
Primary results have given Democrats their preferred candidates in Iowa, Montana and Texas, improving their prospects.
AI-generated summary was reviewed by a CNN editor.
Democrats clearly have the momentum in the 2026 midterm elections. But in order to take control of the Senate, they need to do something pretty extraordinary: They likely must win at least two states that President Donald Trump carried by double-digits in 2024.
The most likely possibilities would seem to be Alaska (Trump +13), Iowa (Trump +13), Ohio (Trump +11) and Texas (Trump +14). Each would require a significant swing. Some lower-tier targets could include Montana (Trump +20) and Nebraska (Trump +20), where Democrats appear to be pinning their hopes on independent candidates.
But recent developments give Democrats increasing reason to dare to dream:
- The primaries have broken the way Democrats wanted them to in states like Iowa, Texas and Montana.
- The “generic ballot” polling — a choice between an unnamed Democrat and an unnamed Republican — has trended significantly in their direction.
- The limited quality polling we have in key states — like a new Fox News poll in Ohio — suggests winning some of these double-digit Trump states is within the realm of possibility.
That doesn’t mean everything is going Democrats’ way right now; the continued disclosures about Maine Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner, for instance, have cast real doubt on a blue state that Democrats probably need to win.
(They need four more seats to gain control, and their easiest targets are supposed to be Maine and North Carolina.)
But they’ve got some major signs trending their way.
On Tuesday, the Democratic establishment got the candidate it wanted in Iowa: state Rep. Josh Turek, a Paralympian who has carried a district that voted for Trump. This led some election analysts to move the state into a more competitive category.
The same day, the party also pulled off a win, of sorts, in Montana. Specifically, it got an under-funded Democratic nominee who could theoretically open the door to an independent who has more of a chance of winning the race and depriving Republicans of a seat — or, at least, make the GOP spend more than it expected to in the state.
And further back, the matchup in Texas is exactly what the Democratic Party wanted. They got state Rep. James Talarico over firebrand Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary, then they got baggage-laden state Attorney General Ken Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff.
Some key primaries remain — especially the Democratic primary in Michigan — but, so far, they’re breaking well for Democrats.
This is a mainstay of midterm election polling, which asks voters whether they would prefer to vote for an unnamed Republican candidate or an unnamed Democratic candidate in that district. It’s a way to get a read on the national environment without polling every individual race.
For a while, it looked like Democrats weren’t building the kind of advantage they would like to — possibly owing to their party’s poor brand.
But there are some signs it could be shifting.
While some polls continue to show this measure is close among registered voters — like a CNN poll (Democrats +3) a month ago and a Marquette Law School poll released this week (near even with Democrats at 46% to Republicans’ 45%) — some recent high-quality polls have found Democrats with a double-digit lead.
That includes a New York Times/Siena College poll and a Quinnipiac University poll which showed Democrats up 11, as well as an NPR/PBS/Marist College poll showing them up 10.
Those are the kinds of margins that give Democrats reason to hope they could win double-digit Trump states.
While polling data is still early and sparse at the state level, the limited recent polls available look good for Democrats.
A new Fox News poll among Ohio registered voters is a case in point.
The poll released Wednesday shows Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown leading appointed GOP Sen. Jon Husted by eight points, 53%-45%. This is, again, in a state Trump won by 11 points in 2024. If that margin held among actual voters in November, it would be a 19-point swing.
The result would be similar to Brown’s six-point win in Trump’s first midterm in 2018 — an election that was quite good for Democrats.
And it suggests Brown is picking off significant numbers of crossover voters. The Fox poll shows he’s getting 13% of all Republicans, 14% of 2024 Trump voters and 31% of Republicans who don’t identify with the MAGA movement.
The polling in Texas has been similar, if more dated. A late April/early May Texas Southern University/YouGov poll showed Talarico and Paxton tied at 45%, while an older University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll showed Talarico ahead by eight, 42%-34%.
Both showed Talarico leading by more than 20 points with independents. And even the closer poll showed Paxton struggling to completely lock down Republican voters.
Another key facet of the polls in both states: They all show the Democratic Senate candidates doing better than other Democrats on the ballot, like gubernatorial candidates. That suggests Democrats are nominating pretty favorable candidate matchups.
And finally worth mentioning is another recent poll in Maine. The late-May University of New Hampshire survey was conducted before the recent revelations about Platner, but it confirmed Democrats’ overall momentum.
Platner led Republican five-term Sen. Susan Collins 51%-42% among likely voters.
What’s particularly encouraging for Democrats there was that Platner seemed to be locking down Democrats (taking 91% of them) more than Collins was locking down Republicans (80%).
That’s a reversal from Collins’ 2020 reelection race, when exit polls showed her getting 91% of Republicans but her Democratic opponent getting just 84% of Democrats.
Another Maine poll last month, from the University of Massachusetts Lowell and YouGov, showed Platner leading 48%-43%.
Polling Maine is notoriously difficult. In that 2020 race, Collins trailed in every public survey before shocking everyone when she won by nine points. And obviously, Platner’s baggage could impact things.
Still, the data right now is pretty clear that Democrats winning control of the Senate is increasingly on the table. One wouldn’t blame them for feeling optimistic about their ability to compete in Alaska and even Iowa, given what we’re seeing in Ohio and Texas.
This story has been updated with additional polling.
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