伊朗核储备——结束战争谈判的关键环节,也是特朗普关注的焦点:详解


2026-05-29T09:00:07.767Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/29/politics/iran-war-nuclear-stockpile-explained

  • 据国际核查人员称,伊朗拥有近1000磅浓度达60%的浓缩铀,足够制造10枚核武器。
  • 核专家表示,如果伊朗拥有运转中的设施,可在数周甚至数天内将这些材料提纯至武器级纯度。
  • 专家称,尽管有稀释或移除铀的方案,但可能很难确认伊朗是否销毁了全部核储备。

本文由AI生成摘要,经CNN编辑审核。

美国与伊朗历经数周谈判以潜在结束伊朗战争之际,伊朗的浓缩铀储备如何处置——包括其近970磅的高浓缩至接近武器级的铀,是主要僵持点之一。

唐纳德·特朗普总统坚称伊朗必须交出他所谓的“核尘埃”。伊朗官员多次表示,该国有权拥有非武器用途的核项目。

但伊朗的核储备中究竟有什么?这对伊朗制造核武器的能力意味着什么?

核专家表示,借助合适设备,伊朗拥有的高浓缩铀可在数周甚至数天内达到武器级纯度。国际核查人员称,这些材料足够制造10枚核武器。

据报道,伊朗与美国接近达成一项正式停火并开放霍尔木兹海峡的协议。但据CNN报道,铀的处置问题仍未解决,将成为后续谈判的核心内容。

这些谈判可能会聚焦于近1000磅浓度达60%的铀。

“美国不应签署不包含移除高浓缩铀内容的协议,”核威胁倡议(NTI)非营利组织的核材料专家埃里克·布鲁尔说道。他曾在特朗普首届政府期间负责国家安全委员会的反扩散工作,还曾为国防情报局领导伊朗情报分析工作。

制造核武器需要大量放射性重元素,也就是专家所说的裂变材料。其中一种放射性同位素铀-235天然存在,但在开采的原铀矿石中占比不到1%。

浓缩过程可将原矿石中的铀-235浓度提高,使其可转化为可用于武器的裂变材料。伊朗将铀转化为六氟化铀气体,随后在主要位于该国纳坦兹、福特奥和伊斯法罕核综合体的地下工厂中,通过一系列离心分离机进行旋转提纯。

据国际原子能机构2025年6月的最后一次核查,伊朗近半吨浓度60%的浓缩铀(以及估计405.9磅浓度20%的铀-235)目前仍呈气体状态。同年7月,在美以联合空袭其核设施后,伊朗将国际核核查人员拒之门外。

布鲁尔表示,如果伊朗拥有运转中的浓缩设施,进一步将铀提纯至90%的武器级纯度门槛“仅需数天至数周”。

2025年6月对伊朗核设施的空袭——美国国防部称之为“午夜锤子行动”——经美国情报评估,虽将伊朗大量高浓缩铀储备掩埋在伊斯法罕,但并未将其摧毁,尽管美国政府曾声明伊朗的核项目已“被彻底摧毁”。

本月早些时候,特朗普威胁称,如果谈判失败,将“出动”武力夺回这些铀。CNN3月曾报道,军事策划者曾审查过在伊斯法罕综合体开展此类行动的方案,评估认为这可能需要数百甚至数千名士兵,且伤亡风险极高。除了调动专门部队和设备处理核材料本身,建立安全区域以保障这些部队开展工作还需要大规模部署兵力。

核专家还质疑,美国军事行动甚至能否定位并核实所有铀的位置,更遑论安全彻底地移除。在敌对环境下开展此类移除行动史无前例。

“我们不知道伊朗是否在空袭前分散了部分铀材料,”布鲁尔说道。

目前尚不清楚伊朗目前是否具备将其60%浓度的铀气体转化为制造核弹所需的金属形态的能力,但布鲁尔表示,在2025年空袭之前,伊朗确实拥有合适的相关设施。

同样不清楚的是,伊朗政权需要多久才能恢复并完成武器化工作,包括制造核弹核心以及研发引爆所需的炸药。哈佛大学物理学家、中国核问题专家张辉去年为《原子科学家公报》撰文称,1964年中国完成铀浓缩后,“仅用了三至五周时间将气体转化为金属……并组装出一颗原子弹”。

曾担任美国国家核安全管理局核材料移除办公室主任、现负责NTI核材料安全项目的斯科特·罗克告诉CNN,即便移除伊朗的低浓缩铀——包括超过13000磅浓度5%的材料——也可能有必要,以防止其未来开展核武器研发工作。

这是因为伊朗已经掌握了制造先进离心机的技能和经验,能够快速高效地进一步浓缩铀。

尽管伊朗坚称从未寻求核武器,但罗克表示,其高浓缩铀储备说明了一切。

“这种材料没有合理的民用用途,”他说道,并补充道美国谈判的“主要焦点”应该是摆脱这些铀。

据罗克和布鲁尔称,移除或中和伊朗核储备主要有两种方案。

罗克表示,双方可能首先采取的共同步骤是将铀从气体形态转化为“本质上更稳定”的粉末形态,从而大幅提升运输安全性。

如果由美国主导开展和平移除行动,根据美国能源部国家核安全管理局的情况说明书,该局拥有一座移动式铀处理设施,可从位于田纳西州橡树岭国家实验室的总部部署到全球任何地点,并“稳定、封装并移除核材料”。这一过程可能需要数周时间。

罗克指出,俄罗斯也有能力接收浓缩铀,正如2015年伊朗核协议下所做的那样。

第二种方案被称为“向下稀释”,可在伊朗境内实施。向下稀释指的是用低纯度铀稀释高浓缩铀,以降低其铀-235浓度。

无论采用何种方法,任何成功移除方案的关键都在于美国和国际社会能够对整个过程进行监测和核实。

布鲁尔表示,即便伊朗完全配合,核查工作也将充满挑战。

“你会面临……伊朗说‘我们无法核算那100公斤[铀],因为它实际上在空袭中被炸没了’的风险,而你永远无法知道这是不是真的,对吧?”布鲁尔说道。

戴维斯·温基在CNN的报道得到了Outrider基金会与新闻资助合作伙伴(JFP)的合作支持。CNN对报道拥有完全编辑控制权。

CNN的娜塔莎·贝特朗、扎卡里·科恩、黑利·布里茨基、凯文·利普塔克和阿莱娜·特里恩为本文报道做出了贡献。

Iran’s nuclear stockpile — a key part of negotiations to end the war and a focus of Trump’s — explained

2026-05-29T09:00:07.767Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/29/politics/iran-war-nuclear-stockpile-explained

  • Iran has nearly 1,000 pounds of uranium enriched to 60%, enough for 10 nuclear weapons, according to international inspectors.
  • Nuclear experts say Iran could enrich that material to weapons-grade purity within weeks or even days if it has an operational facility.
  • While there are options to dilute or remove the uranium, it may be difficult to confirm that Iran has destroyed all of its stockpile, according to experts.

AI-generated summary was reviewed by a CNN editor.

What happens to Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, including the 970 pounds that it has highly concentrated to near-weapons grade, is one of the primary sticking points as the US and Iran have trudged through weeks of negotiations to potentially end the Iran war.

President Donald Trump has insisted that Iran must hand over what he calls its “nuclear dust.” Iranian officials have repeatedly said that the country has a right to a non-weapons nuclear program.

But what is in Iran’s stockpile, and what does it mean for Iran’s ability to build a nuclear weapon?

With the right equipment, the highly enriched uranium that Iran has could reach weapons-grade purity within weeks or even days, according to nuclear experts. And it’s enough for 10 nuclear weapons, international inspectors say.

Iran and the US are reportedly close to an agreement to formalize a ceasefire and open the Strait of Hormuz. But the question of what happens to the uranium would remain unsettled and a key part of subsequent negotiations, according to CNN’s reporting.

Those talks would likely focus on the nearly 1000 pounds of uranium purified to 60%.

“The US shouldn’t take a deal that doesn’t include removing the highly enriched uranium,” said Eric Brewer, a nuclear materials expert for the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) nonprofit who previously oversaw counterproliferation at the National Security Council during Trump’s first administration and led Iran intelligence analysis for the Defense Intelligence Agency.

Building a nuclear weapon requires a significant amount of radioactive heavy elements, or what experts call fissile material. One such radioactive isotope, uranium-235, occurs in nature, but it makes up less than one percent of raw uranium ore that’s mined.

Enrichment concentrates the uranium-235 from raw ore and prepares it for conversion into weapons-usable fissile material. Iran enriched its uranium by converting it into a gas — uranium hexafluoride — and spinning it in a series of centrifuge machines in underground plants primarily at the country’s Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan nuclear complexes.

Iran’s near-half ton of 60% enriched uranium (and its estimated 405.9 pounds of 20% U-235) is believed to remain in gas form, as it was at the time of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s last verification in June 2025. Iran shut out international nuclear inspectors the following month in the wake of joint US-Israel airstrikes on its facilities.

Further enrichment to 90% purity, considered the threshold for weapons-grade uranium, would “only take days to weeks” if Iran has an operational enrichment facility, Brewer said.

The June 2025 strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, what the Pentagon termed Operation Midnight Hammer, was assessed by US intelligence to have buried much of Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile at Isfahan, but didn’t destroy it, despite administration statements that Iran’s nuclear program was “obliterated.”

Earlier this month Trump threatened “to go in” with force and retrieve the uranium should negotiations fail. CNN reported in March that military planners had reviewed options for such an effort at the Isfahan complex, assessing that it could require hundreds if not thousands of troops and risk a high number of casualties. In addition to bringing in specialized forces and equipment to handle the material itself, creating a security perimeter to allow those troops to work would mean a large footprint.

Nuclear experts are also skeptical that a US military operation could even locate and verify all the uranium, much less safely and completely remove it. Doing such a removal under hostile conditions would be unprecedented.

“We don’t know where Iran could have dispersed some of this uranium material ahead of the strikes,” said Brewer.

It’s unclear if Iran currently has the capability of turning its 60% uranium gas into metal as needed to produce a nuclear warhead, but before the 2025 strikes it did have the right kinds of facilities, Brewer said.

It’s also not clear how quickly the Iranian regime could resume and complete weaponization work, which includes fashioning the bomb’s core and developing the explosives required to detonate it. When China completed its uranium enrichment in 1964, it only required “three to five weeks to convert the gas to metal … and assemble an atomic bomb,” Harvard physicist and China nuclear expert Hui Zhang wrote for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists last year.

Scott Roecker, who served as head of the National Nuclear Security Administration’s Office of Nuclear Material Removal and now oversees the NTI’s nuclear materials security program, told CNN that removing even Iran’s low-enriched uranium including more than 13,000 pounds of 5% enriched material may be necessary to prevent future nuclear weapons work.

That’s because Iran has developed the skills and experience to produce advanced centrifuges that can quickly and efficiently enrich the uranium further.

While Iran has insisted that it has not been pursuing a nuclear weapon, Roecker said its highly enriched stockpile is telling.

“There’s no plausible civilian purpose for that material,” he said, adding that the “main focus” of US negotiations should be getting rid of it.

There are two primary options for removing or otherwise neutralizing Iran’s stockpile, according to Roecker and Brewer.

A first common step between them likely would be converting from uranium gas to an “inherently more stable” powder form, Roecker said, making transport significantly safer.

In the case of a peaceful removal led by the US, the Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration has a mobile uranium facility that can deploy from its home at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, in Tennessee, to anywhere in the world and “stabilize, package, and remove nuclear materials,” according to an agency fact sheet. That process would likely take weeks.

Russia is also capable of accepting enriched uranium, as it did under the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, Roecker noted.

A second option, known as “downblending,” could occur on Iranian soil. Downblending would involve diluting highly enriched uranium with low-purity uranium to reduce its U-235 concentration.

The key to any successful removal, regardless of the method, is the ability for the US and the international community to monitor and verify the process.

Brewer said that verification will be challenging even if Iran fully cooperates.

“You run the risk of … Iran saying, ‘We can’t account for that 100 kilograms [of uranium] because it actually blew up in the strikes,’ and you’re never going to know if that’s true or not, right?” Brewer said.

Davis Winkie’s work at CNN is supported by a partnership between Outrider Foundation and Journalism Funding Partners (JFP). CNN retains full editorial control of the reporting.

CNN’s Natasha Bertrand, Zachary Cohen, Haley Britzky, Kevin Liptak and Alayna Treene contributed to this report.

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