格雷厄姆·普拉特纳退选后，参议院争夺战面临五大疑问

5 big questions in the battle for the Senate after Graham Platner drops his bid

2026-07-09T21:42:48.897Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/09/politics/senate-control-graham-platner

Graham Platner’s announced exit from the Maine Senate race Wednesday concluded one of the longest-running — and most-consequential — sagas of the 2026 battle for the Senate.

But many questions remain — both in Maine and in races around the country — that could shape how much of a chance Democrats have of flipping that chamber.

Here are some of the big ones.

1. How quickly – and thoroughly – can Maine Democrats turn the page on Platner?

Getting Platner to leave the race after the emergence of a rape allegation this week was the big first step for Maine Democrats; Monday is the deadline for being able to replace him on the ballot.

But that doesn’t mean it’s smooth sailing from here on out.

For one, Platner’s announcement that he’s suspending his campaign — two days after the allegation, which he denies, came out — wasn’t exactly a kumbaya moment. Instead, he aired a series of grievances over the course of an 11-minute video. His base might not be as strong and passionate as it once was, but Democrats would be wise not to alienate the 72% of primary voters who backed Platner with the replacement process.

The other big factor is whom Democrats replace him with.

The Maine Democratic Party announced that the replacement is expected to be selected by an impromptu 600-person convention, and a number of candidates — including gubernatorial runner-up Nirav Shah, Platner/Bernie Sanders ally Troy Jackson and others — have already thrown their hats in the ring.

Whoever is selected will likely be an improvement over Platner and his declining poll numbers.

But does the party try to get someone with a similar populist appeal (à la Jackson) or does that risk allowing Republicans to tie him to Platner? (Also: Even Platner wasn’t doing as well with working-class voters as you might have thought.) Do Democrats go with a more traditional — even generic — candidate who can better keep the focus on President Donald Trump rather than themselves, but might not be as exciting to Platner devotees? And how happy are people with the process that produces the nominee?

All of these are major questions. GOP Sen. Susan Collins has proven resilient in the blue-leaning state, and the stakes are high for Democrats to get the next steps right. They need a net gain of four seats to win the Senate majority, and Maine — the one state Kamala Harris won where a Republican is up for reelection — is supposed to be among their best shots.

Maine wasn’t the only place where some Democrats have feared their nominee might jeopardize what’s likely a must-win state. That’s also increasingly the case in Michigan.

And all eyes will be on whether Abdul El-Sayed wins the primary on August 4.

Democrats have nominated candidates like El-Sayed — a Sanders ally with pretty far-left positions — in deep-blue areas, but generally not in swing areas. That could change in this high-profile race, where El-Sayed has gained traction in the primary.

The race did shift recently, with state Sen. Mallory McMorrow’s decision to drop out. That means it’s now one-on-one between El-Sayed and Rep. Haley Stevens, whom Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has signaled support for.

But it’s not clear that McMorrow’s exit helps Stevens. Nor, it’s worth emphasizing, is it clear that El-Sayed would necessarily perform worse in the general election.

And again, the stakes are high for Democrats to get this right. Just like with Maine, it’s hard to see how they win the majority without holding Michigan.

3. Are Iowa and Texas really in play?

Democrats’ most likely majority path goes like this: They flip Maine, hold Michigan and Georgia and flip North Carolina. But then they have to flip at least two states that Trump carried by double digits in 2024.

The most likely possibilities are these four: Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas.

Alaska and Ohio appear to be pretty solidly in play, but it’s not so clear that’s the case with Iowa and Texas.

In Texas, state Rep. James Talarico has generated lots of buzz and just raised an astounding $30 million in the second quarter. But somewhat similar to Platner, it’s not totally clear he can match the hype. Democrats think he can speak to conservative-leaning voters as a man of faith and pick off voters from state Attorney General Ken Paxton, but Talarico has also previously adopted a number of positions that the GOP is eager to blast as too “woke” for Texas.

In Iowa, state Rep. Josh Turek looks like a great recruit in an open-seat race — a Paralympian who has held down a Trump district in the state legislature. And Democrats also have a strong nominee for governor in state Auditor Rob Sand. But Iowa has swung pretty hard to the right in the Trump era. And there’s not a baggage-laden candidate like Paxton on the GOP side.

What’s clear for now: Both Texas and Iowa are polling competitively. Recent New York Times-Siena polls showed Talarico tied with Paxton at 47% among likely voters, and Turek running about even with GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson.

When there are wave elections — like 2026 could be for Democrats — there tend to be races that surprise us.

So, which could those be?

Keep an eye on Montana and Nebraska, where the leading opponents for Republicans appear to be independents rather than Democrats. (This is an increasingly common strategy for Democrats — effectively stepping aside for independents — though to this point it’s mostly just made the races closer rather than caused Republicans to lose.)

Also keep an eye on Kansas, where renowned methodist pastor Adam Hamilton is setting records by raising millions in a long-shot Democratic bid against GOP Sen. Roger Marshall.

On the flipside, if the 2026 battlefield narrows and Republicans start doing better, don’t forget that two former GOP senators, Scott Brown and John E. Sununu of New Hampshire, are battling for the right to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen in that blue-leaning state.

The last month has featured a big to-do in Alaska over whether a second Republican Dan Sullivan will appear on the ballot, running against GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan and Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola.

The state Supreme Court ultimately cleared the way for the second Dan Sullivan last week. The incumbent senator and his allies fear this could cost them some votes if voters get confused, which could certainly happen.

But Alaska has ranked-choice voting, meaning anybody who is confused could rank both Dan Sullivans and their vote would eventually go to the incumbent. At the same time, someone could pick only one candidate and pick the wrong Dan Sullivan.

Also keep an eye on whether the challenger Dan Sullivan will be one of the four candidates to advance past the August 18 primary. Republicans would prefer he didn’t, but Democrats could vote for him to try and push him through.

It’s worth following this quirk — especially given how close this race is polling and how it could decide the Senate majority.