2026-07-07T09:36:15-04:00 / 福克斯新闻
在强奸指控引发民主党人呼吁普拉特纳暂停竞选后，卡尔希合约价格从个位数大幅上涨
作者：阿曼达·马西亚斯 福克斯新闻
发布于2026年7月7日美国东部时间上午9:36
普拉特纳的核心盟友告诉福克斯新闻数字频道，普拉特纳正在为过去的“有毒”行为承担责任
进步派领军人物、众议员罗·卡纳——格雷厄姆·普拉特纳的主要支持者之一，接受福克斯新闻数字频道采访，谈论这位缅因州民主党联邦参议员候选人面临的争议。
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预测市场卡尔希的交易员纷纷下注，认为缅因州民主党联邦参议员候选人格雷厄姆·普拉特纳将在下周前退选。
普拉特纳能否在7月14日前退选的合约价格周二上午从此前的个位数飙升至94美分，这意味着交易员目前认为他即将退选的概率约为94%。该市场的总交易金额刚刚超过440万美元。
尽管预测市场无法决定政治结果，但投注量的激增反映出交易员们越来越相信，在最新指控曝光后，普拉特纳的竞选活动正面临严重危机。普拉特纳正试图击败连任五届的共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯（缅因州共和党），这是全美最受关注的参议院竞选之一。
威胁民主党人格雷厄姆·普拉特纳缅因州参议员竞选的争议清单
周二上午，卡尔希市场的交易员将普拉特纳退选的概率从前一天的约6%推高至94%。（卡尔希）
这一市场的剧烈波动发生在周一普拉特纳遭强奸指控后，民主党人迅速与他划清界限，该指控立刻引发了党内各界呼吁他暂停竞选的声音。
普拉特纳的高调支持者之一、马萨诸塞州民主党参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦撤销了对他的背书，此前她曾称普拉特纳是“我这类人”。
“当前局势事关重大，最佳前进路径是格雷厄姆·普拉特纳辞去民主党提名候选人身份，在这场参议院竞选之外处理这些严重指控，”这位进步派参议员在一份声明中写道。
加利福尼亚州民主党众议员罗·卡纳也撤回了对他的支持，并呼吁普拉特纳退出竞选。
新墨西哥州民主党参议员马丁·海因里希和亚利桑那州民主党众议员鲁本·加列戈周一同样撤回了支持，不过加列戈并未敦促普拉特纳暂停竞选。
普拉特纳的争议引发对缅因州鲜为人知的候选人替换条款的猜测
进步派民主党人格雷厄姆·普拉特纳在经历了一场激烈的党内初选后赢得了缅因州参议院提名，这场竞选不仅围绕他对过往不当行为的指控展开，也涉及选民最关心的议题。（格雷姆·斯隆/彭博社/盖蒂图片社）
缅因州居民珍妮·拉西科特指控普拉特纳在近五年前强奸了她，并告诉《政客》和CNN，他在醉酒状态下未经许可进入她的家，尽管她多次试图阻止，仍对她实施了性侵。此后，要求他退出参议员竞选的压力不断升级。
普拉特纳否认了这一指控，在一份声明中表示他正在“花时间反思竞选的最佳前进方向”。
这位海军陆战队退伍军人兼牡蛎养殖户今年成为民主党阵营中崛起最快的政治人物之一，以其民粹主义主张和 outsider（局外人）形象引发全国关注。
普拉特纳获得了地方和全国各级民主党人的支持。（索菲·帕克/盖蒂图片社）
随着他的知名度上升，对其过往行为的审查也越来越多。
近几个月来，他的竞选活动被一系列争议缠身，包括露骨信息重新浮出水面、冒犯性社交媒体帖子、与纳粹象征有关的纹身，以及竞选团队人员动荡。
尽管遭遇这些问题，在上个月的初选中顺利获胜后，他留在竞选中的概率仍然很高。但最新的强奸指控逆转了这一趋势，至少在卡尔希市场上是如此。
阿曼达·马西亚斯报道商业、经济与政治的交叉领域，重点关注政策决策如何影响市场、企业和美国工人。
Graham Platner’s chances of dropping out skyrocket to 94% after party revolt: Kalshi
2026-07-07T09:36:15-04:00 / Fox News
The Kalshi contract surged from single digits after a rape allegation triggered Dem calls for Platner to suspend his campaign
By Amanda Macias Fox News
Published July 7, 2026 9:36am EDT
Top Platner ally tells Fox News Digital that Platner is ‘taking accountability’ for past ‘toxic’ behavior
Progressive champion Rep. Ro Khanna, a leading Graham Platner supporter, speaks with Fox News Digital about the controversies facing the Maine Democratic Senate candidate.
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Traders on prediction market Kalshi are piling into wagers that Maine Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner will drop out of the race by next week.
The contract on whether Platner will drop out before July 14 soared to 94 cents Tuesday morning from the previous single digits, implying traders now assign a roughly 94% probability to his impending exit. The trading volume, or the total dollar amount wagered on this market, sits just north of $4.4 million.
While prediction markets don’t determine political outcomes, the surge in betting reflects a growing belief among traders that Platner’s campaign is in serious jeopardy following the latest allegations. Platner is seeking to unseat five-term Republican Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, in one of the nation’s most closely watched Senate races.
THE GROWING LIST OF CONTROVERSIES THREATENING DEMOCRAT GRAHAM PLATNER’S MAINE SENATE BID
On Tuesday morning, Kalshi traders pushed the odds of Platner dropping out of the Senate race to 94%, up from roughly 6% the day before.(Kalshi)
The market’s abrupt swing follows Democrats’ rapid break with Platner after a rape allegation was leveled against him on Monday, which immediately triggered calls from across the party for him to suspend his campaign.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., one of Platner’s highest-profile backers, rescinded her endorsement after previously saying that he is “my kind of man.”
“With so much at stake, the best path forward is for Graham Platner to step aside as the Democratic nominee and address these serious allegations outside this Senate race,” the progressive senator wrote in a statement.
Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., also withdrew his backing and called on Platner to exit the race.
Sens. Martin Heinrich, D-N.M., and Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., likewise pulled their support Monday, though Gallego stopped short of urging Platner to suspend his campaign.
PLATNER CONTROVERSIES FUEL SPECULATION ABOUT LITTLE-KNOWN MAINE BALLOT REPLACEMENT PROVISION
Progressive Democrat Graham Platner won the party’s Senate primary in Maine after a bruising campaign which became as much about his accusations of past misbehavior as it was voters’ top concerns.(Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg/Getty Images)
The mounting pressure for an end to his Senate bid began after Maine resident Jenny Racicot accused Platner of raping her nearly five years ago, telling Politico and CNN that he entered her home uninvited while intoxicated and forced himself on her despite her repeated attempts to stop him.
Platner denied the allegation, saying in a statement he was “taking the time to reflect on the best path forward” for his campaign.
The Marine Corps veteran and oyster farmer emerged this year as one of the Democratic Party’s fastest-rising political figures, drawing national attention for his populist message and outsider image.
Planter has received backing from Democrats at both the local and national levels.(Sophie Park/Getty Images)
As his profile has grown, so has scrutiny of his past conduct.
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In recent months, his campaign has been engulfed by a series of controversies, including the resurfacing of sexually explicit messages, offensive social media posts, a tattoo linked to Nazi symbolism and campaign staff turmoil.
Despite all this, his odds of remaining in the race after smooth sailing to primary election victory last month remained high. But the most recent rape allegation has reversed that, at least on Kalshi.
Amanda Macias covers the intersection of business, economics and politics, with a focus on how policy decisions shape markets, businesses and American workers.
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