为何J·D·万斯淡化理查德·尼克松的腐败行为


2026-06-26T16:51:04.732Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/26/politics/jd-vance-richard-nixon-corruption

很少会有 major 政党总统提名的潜在领跑者公开赞扬理查德·尼克松的优点,同时淡化他的腐败行为。

但副总统J·D·万斯在周四就恰恰做了这件事。

在加利福尼亚州尼克松总统图书馆暨博物馆的一场活动中,万斯将尼克松被赶下台与首任任期内追究唐纳德·特朗普总统责任的行为相提并论,将此归咎于“深层政府”。万斯还声称,水门事件在今天算不上什么大新闻。

他的说法中确实有几分道理,也可能暗藏战略考量。

但同时也存在风险。这位副总统的言论表明,腐败认知对于特朗普政府——进而对于2028年的万斯本人而言,是一颗沉睡的定时炸弹。

“我认为他的历史遗产正迎来某种程度的复兴——但我认为这是应得的,”万斯在评价尼克松时说道。“我在后台还开玩笑说,如果水门事件明天发生,那也只会是一个持续12小时的新闻故事。认为它会搞垮一届政府的想法简直荒唐。”

万斯补充道:“顺便说一句,如果你看看深层政府搞垮理查德·尼克松的过程,和同一批人——同一批机构——在首届特朗普政府时期试图对付唐纳德·特朗普的手段没什么不同。两者之间存在相似之处。”

万斯甚至将自己的经历与尼克松相提并论——两人都担任过副总统且“被媒体仇视”,他带着笑意轻松补充道:“我一直都很喜欢理查德·尼克松。”

首先,万斯所称的尼克松遗产“迎来某种程度复兴”的说法并无依据。恰恰相反,这番评论可能印证了外界对万斯长期以来的一项批评:他实在太沉迷网络舆论了。

近年来,一些知名保守派人士一直在努力重塑尼克松的形象。比如2023年《政客》的相关报道,以及去年《时代》周刊和NBC新闻的相关报道。

2023年8月,时任共和党总统候选人维韦克·拉马斯瓦米在尼克松图书馆发表演讲时,称尼克松是“我国现代史上最被低估的总统,甚至可能是整个美国历史上最被低估的总统”。

但几乎没有证据表明这些努力真正获得了普通民众的认可。2024年12月盖洛普的最新权威民调显示,54%的美国人认为尼克松“低于平均水平”或“表现糟糕”,仅有12%的人认为他“高于平均水平”或“表现出色”。这是受访的10位总统中最差的评分。

即使在共和党人中,负面评价尼克松的比例(39%)也是正面评价(19%)的两倍左右。

有没有可能在过去一年半里情况有所变化?或许有小幅改观。但万斯所称赞的,大概率仍是一位依旧相当不受欢迎的总统。

当然,万斯此番言论的真正目的可能并非让尼克松看起来形象变好;而是为了让特朗普看起来没那么糟糕。

正如上文提及的那些尼克松相关报道所指出的,重塑尼克松形象的诸多努力,似乎本质上都是为了淡化特朗普面临的问题。

水门事件是现代政治丑闻的原型,如果人们突然认为这根本算不上什么大事,甚至只是一场“深层政府”的阴谋,那么他们或许也会以同样的眼光看待针对特朗普的腐败指控。

需要明确的是,腐败指控最终可能远比当下看起来重要得多。

特朗普用争议填满了舆论空间,使得任何与腐败相关的新闻都无法持续发酵。他还掌控了司法部,其所在政党控制着国会。因此,几乎没有现成的调查机构能够对他进行问责。

但11月的中期选举后,民主党完全有可能在新一届国会中控制一个或两个立法议院。这将赋予他们传票权和启动调查的能力。

而目前,可供调查的潜在高价值议题多到让人纠结到底该聚焦哪一个——或是哪几个。

Tangle网站的艾萨克·索尔上月整理了一份特朗普政府最重大的潜在腐败问题清单,内容十分全面。

其中一些重大问题包括:

  • 大规模的自我牟利行为,据《纽约客》估算金额高达40亿美元。
  • 公务与私人事务频繁交织。
  • 对盟友的多次赦免。
  • 基于站不住脚的证据,将司法部用于对付特朗普政治对手的相当透明的企图。
  • 政府对爱泼斯坦档案的处理方式时常怪异,正如《纽约时报》的玛吉·哈伯曼和乔纳森·斯旺近期报道的那样,其首要目标似乎是保护特朗普。(特朗普否认与这位已故性犯罪者有任何不当关联。)

不妨试想一下众议院监督委员会可能举行的听证会,比如针对在吉斯莱恩·麦克斯韦声称发表可能有助于特朗普的言论后,政府随即决定将这名爱泼斯坦同伙转移到低安全级别监狱这一仍未得到解释的决定展开的听证会。

腐败认知通常不被视为特朗普政治运势大幅下滑的主要原因(主要原因是通胀、经济和伊朗战争),但也不应将其视作无关因素。

路透社-益普索上月的民调显示,61%的美国人不认可特朗普处理腐败问题的方式,仅有27%的人表示认可。历史表明,许多本被视为强势领导人的人物,最终都因支持者因腐败问题倒戈而倒台。腐败问题是今年春季匈牙利执政16年的维克多·欧尔班被赶下台的重要原因之一。

万斯若有意在2028年参选,自然会担心政府的自利行为引发公众反感,这并非没有道理。

对于诸多明显的利益冲突,目前尚无充分的解释。特朗普毫无歉意地公开助长了这种负面观感。

今年1月,《纽约时报》询问特朗普为何推翻其第一任期内家族避免海外商业活动的政策,特朗普回应道:“因为我发现没人在乎。”(与此同时,白宫 repeatedly 辩称,特朗普通过成为“最透明”的总统,正在“恢复行政部门的诚信”。)

但对于潜在的特朗普继任者而言,试图控制这种舆论观感的一种方法就是混淆视听。既然水门事件根本算不上丑闻,那还有什么能算得上丑闻呢?

万斯无疑是在夸大其词。毕竟,水门事件涉及包括尼克松政府高官在内的确凿犯罪行为,还有秘密录音带。但“如今这件事或许不会那么令人震惊”的说法,确实有一定道理。

这是因为特朗普已经用足以在任何其他时代都堪称丑闻的行为,彻底席卷了整个国家。

尽管特朗普已证明自己能够摆脱这些问题,保住基本盘,但万斯是否也能如此娴熟,目前尚不得而知。

Why JD Vance is downplaying Richard Nixon’s corruption

2026-06-26T16:51:04.732Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/26/politics/jd-vance-richard-nixon-corruption

It’s not every day that you see the would-be frontrunner for a major party’s presidential nomination extolling the virtues of Richard Nixon and downplaying his corruption.

But there was Vice President JD Vance on Thursday doing precisely that.

During an appearance at the Nixon Presidential Library and Museum in California, Vance likened Nixon’s ouster to efforts to hold President Donald Trump accountable in his first term, blaming the “deep state.” Vance also claimed Watergate wouldn’t be much of a story today.

There are some grains of truth in what he said, as well as some potential strategic benefit.

But there is also some danger. The vice president’s comments point to how perceptions of corruption are a sleeping giant for the Trump administration — and, by extension, for Vance in 2028.

“I think that his historical legacy is enjoying a bit of a renaissance — but I think deservedly so,” Vance said of Nixon. “As I joked … backstage, if Watergate happened tomorrow, it would be like a 12-hour news story. Like, the idea that it would have taken down a presidency is crazy.”

Vance added: “And by the way, if you look at the story of how the deep state took down Richard Nixon, it’s not all that different from what the same groups of people — the same institutions — tried to do to Donald Trump in the first Trump administration. There is a parallel.”

Vance even compared his profile to Nixon’s — having been vice president and “hated by the media” — adding with a smile in perhaps a light-hearted way: “I’ve always liked Richard Nixon.”

For starters, Vance’s contention that Nixon’s legacy is enjoying a “bit of a renaissance” is unproven. If anything, that comment might point to a longstanding criticism of Vance, which is that he’s a bit too online.

There has been an effort by some prominent conservatives to rehabilitate Nixon’s image in recent years. Witness this Politico story from 2023, as well as these Time magazine and NBC News stories from last year.

Then-GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy used his own appearance at the Nixon Library in August 2023 to call Nixon “the most underappreciated president of our modern history in this country, probably in all of American history.”

But there is scant evidence that these efforts have truly penetrated with the broader public. The most recent quality poll — from Gallup in December 2024 — showed 54% of Americans rated Nixon “below average” or “poor,” to just 12% who rated him “above average” or “outstanding.” Those were the worst numbers among 10 presidents tested.

Even among Republicans, about twice as many rated Nixon negatively (39%) as positively (19%).

Is it possible that has changed in the last year and a half? Perhaps modestly. But it’s likely Vance was praising a man who is still quite unpopular.

Of course, the real point of Vance’s comments probably wasn’t to make Nixon seem good; it was to make Trump seem not so bad.

As some of those Nixon stories linked above noted, much of this effort to rehab Nixon’s image appears to be about downplaying Trump’s problems.

Watergate is the archetype of the modern political scandal, and if people suddenly regard it as no big deal or even a “deep state” operation, maybe they’ll view Trump’s corruption allegations accordingly.

And to be clear, suggestions of corruption could ultimately matter a lot more than it might seem right now.

Trump has flooded the zone with controversy and made it so that any corruption-related stories don’t last very long. He’s also commandeered the Justice Department, and his party controls Congress. So there’s not really an investigative entity at the ready to hold him accountable.

But there is a real chance that after the November midterm elections, Democrats will control one or both legislative chambers next Congress. That would give them subpoena power and the ability to launch investigations.

And at this point, there are so many potentially fruitful probes that the dilemma is really about which one — or ones — to focus on.

Tangle’s Isaac Saul last month assembled a great compendium of the biggest potential corruption issues in the Trump administration.

Some of the big ones:

  • The extensive self-enrichment, which the New Yorker has pegged at $4 billion.
  • The regular intermingling of official and personal business.
  • The many pardons of allies.
  • The rather transparent effort to train the Justice Department on Trump’s political foes based on flimsy evidence.
  • The administration’s often bizarre handling of the Epstein files in which, as The New York Times’ Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan recently reported, the chief goal seemed to be protecting Trump. (He has denied any wrongdoing in connection with the late sex offender.)

Just think about potential House Oversight Committee hearings, for example, on the still-unexplained decision to move Epstein accomplice Ghislaine Maxwell to a lower-security prison right after she said things that could help Trump.

The perception of corruption is not generally regarded as a main reason why Trump’s political fortunes have declined so much. (Those would be inflation, the economy and the Iran war.) But it shouldn’t be dismissed as a factor.

A Reuters-Ipsos poll last month showed Americans disapproved of Trump’s handling of corruption issues 61%-27%. And history shows many a would-be strongman leader has been felled by supporters turning on them over corruption. Corruption was a big reason Trump ally Viktor Orbán was ousted in Hungary this spring after 16 years in office.

There’s a reason why Vance, ahead of a potential 2028 bid, would fear perceptions of the administration’s self-dealing resonating with the public.

For many apparent conflicts of interest, there isn’t a great explanation. Trump has fed these perceptions rather unapologetically, out in the open.

When The New York Times asked Trump in January why he reversed his first-term policy of his family avoiding overseas business, Trump replied: “Because I found out that nobody cared.” (Meanwhile, the White House has repeatedly argued that Trump is “restoring the integrity of the Executive Branch” by being “the most transparent” president.)

But one way for a potential Trump successor to try to manage those optics is to muddy the waters. If Watergate’s not actually a scandal, after all, what is?

Vance surely exaggerates. Watergate, after all, involved bona fide crimes including ones committed by high-profile Nixon administration officials, as well as secret tapes. But there is some truth to the claim that it’d probably be somewhat less shocking today.

That’s because Trump has absolutely blitzed the country with actions that would be scandalous in any other era.

And while Trump has proven adept at getting past these issues and keeping his base intact, it’s not so clear Vance will be so adept.

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