2026-06-26T12:50:16.842Z / https://www.reuters.com/business/us-goods-trade-deficit-widens-sharply-may-imports-2026-06-26/
摘要
- 5月商品贸易逆差扩大27.4%，至1058亿美元
- 商品进口跃增3.6%，至3134亿美元，创14个月新高
- 商品出口下降5.4%，至2077亿美元
华盛顿6月26日路透社电——随着企业增加进口以规避与中东冲突相关的供应链短缺和价格上涨，美国5月商品贸易逆差扩大至14个月高位，这表明贸易仍将拖累第二季度的经济增长。
美国商务部周五公布的商品贸易逆差大幅恶化同时也伴随着出口下滑。近期的商业调查显示企业提前下单。调查发起方将这一行为归因于美国主导的对伊朗军事行动，该行动推高了包括石油和化肥在内的大宗商品价格，并扰乱了霍尔木兹海峡的航运。
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但在美国和伊朗上周签署初步和平协议后，通过该海峡的航运已恢复，推动油价大幅下跌。即便供应链恢复正常，经济学家仍警告称，贸易逆差可能仍将维持高位，因为主要依赖进口的人工智能投资热潮仍在持续。
“贸易逆差扩大对国民收入增长是坏消息，这意味着净出口也可能拖累实际GDP增长，”高频经济公司首席经济学家卡尔·温伯格说道。“人工智能热潮最好能相应带动服务出口增长，以抵消设备进口的涌入。若无法实现，那么这场人工智能泡沫对美国经济而言将是一桩赔本买卖。”
美国商务部人口普查局表示，上月商品贸易逆差扩大27.4%，至1058亿美元，为2025年3月以来的最高水平。接受路透社调查的经济学家此前预测逆差将达到850亿美元。
商品进口增加109亿美元，增幅3.6%，至3134亿美元，同样创下14个月新高。进口增长的主要推动力是汽车进口激增6.3%。消费品进口也飙升5.7%。尽管通胀高企（主要由伊朗局势冲突引发），但得益于今年大额退税和股市上涨，消费者支出依然强劲。
进口全面增长
包括石油在内的工业原材料进口增长4.8%。资本货物进口增长0.4%，同比激增41.9%，反映出人工智能领域的支出热潮。
食品、饲料和饮料进口增长4.3%，其他商品进口增长11.5%。尽管特朗普政府实施了关税政策，整体进口规模仍维持高位。
5月商品出口减少118亿美元，降幅5.4%，至2077亿美元。其中消费品出口暴跌9.2%，拖累整体出口表现。工业原材料出口下滑7.0%，资本货物出口下降5.0%，其他商品出口减少6.8%。但食品、饲料和饮料出口增长3.9%，汽车出口增长0.5%。
“进口大幅攀升将拖累本季度GDP增长，”FWDBONDS首席经济学家克里斯托弗·鲁普基说道。“美国国内工厂无论如何都无法满足国内需求，进口对国内经济增长的拖累再次显现，不管华盛顿的经济官员如何试图粉饰这一事实。”
贸易已连续两个季度拖累国内生产总值增长。在公布贸易数据前，市场对第二季度GDP的增长预期普遍集中在2.5%的年化增长率。
美国经济上一季度按年化增长率计算增长2.1%，此前第四季度（10月至12月）的增速为0.5%。
路透社记者露西娅·穆蒂卡尼报道；安德里亚·里奇编辑
我们的报道准则：汤森路透信任原则
US goods trade deficit hits 14-month high in May as imports surge
2026-06-26T12:50:16.842Z / https://www.reuters.com/business/us-goods-trade-deficit-widens-sharply-may-imports-2026-06-26/
Summary
- Goods trade deficit widens 27.4% to $105.8 billion in May
- Goods imports jump 3.6% to $313.4 billion, a 14-month high
- Exports of goods drop 5.4% to $207.7 billion
WASHINGTON, June 26 (Reuters) – The U.S. trade deficit in goods swelled to a 14-month high in May as businesses boosted imports, likely to avoid shortages and higher prices related to the Middle East conflict, suggesting trade remained a drag on economic growth in the second quarter.
The sharp deterioration in the goods trade deficit reported by the Commerce Department on Friday also reflected a decline in exports. Recent business surveys have shown front-loading of orders by firms. Sponsors of the surveys attributed the behavior to the U.S.-led war against Iran, which raised commodity prices, including for oil and fertilizers, and disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
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But after the United States and Iran last week signed a preliminary peace deal, shipments through the strait have picked up, driving oil prices sharply lower. Even if supply chains returned to normal, economists warned that the trade deficit would likely remain elevated because of an artificial intelligence investment boom that is largely reliant on imports.
“The widening trade deficit is bad news for national income growth, and it suggests that net exports might drag down real GDP growth too,” said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. “The AI boom had better generate a corresponding increase in services exports to offset the influx of equipment. If it doesn’t, then this AI bubble is a losing proposition for the economy.”
The goods trade gap increased 27.4% to $105.8 billion last month, the highest level since March 2025, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the deficit at $85.0 billion.
Imports of goods increased $10.9 billion, or 3.6% to $313.4 billion, also a 14-month high. They were driven by a 6.3% surge in imports of automotive vehicles. Imports of consumer goods soared 5.7%. Despite high inflation, mostly stemming from the Iran war, consumer spending has remained strong, thanks to large tax refunds this year and a stock market rally.
BROAD INCREASE IN IMPORTS
Imports of industrial supplies, which include petroleum, increased 4.8%. Capital goods imports rose 0.4%. They surged 41.9% on a year-on-year basis, reflecting the AI spending spree.
Imports of foods, feeds and beverages increased 4.3%, while those of other goods advanced 11.5%. Overall imports have remained high despite tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.
Goods exports dropped $11.8 billion, or 5.4%, to $207.7 billion in May. They were weighed down by a 9.2% plunge in exports of consumer goods. Industrial supplies exports tumbled 7.0%, while those of capital goods dropped 5.0%. Exports of other goods decreased 6.8%. But food, feed and beverage exports increased 3.9%. Automotive vehicle exports rose 0.5%.
“Imports are moving sharply higher and this will subtract from GDP growth this quarter,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS. “The import drag on domestic economic growth is back because factories here cannot make it here no matter how Washington economic officials try to spin it.”
Trade had been a drag on gross domestic product for two straight quarters. Growth estimates for the second quarter were converging around a 2.5% annualized rate before the trade data.
The economy grew at a 2.1% annualized rate last quarter after expanding at a 0.5% pace in the October-December quarter.
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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