2026-06-10 17:27:23 EDT / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
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数十年来，美国生育率持续下滑，这让政策制定者和经济学家都困惑不已，专家们将可能的原因归结为从大衰退的经济余波到公众对为人父母态度的转变等诸多因素。如今，一位经济学家指出了另一个因素：iPhone。
明德学院经济学家凯特琳·迈尔斯的一篇新研究论文发现，苹果2007年推出iPhone这一事件，解释了生育率下降幅度的33%至52%。其根源在于，这种强大的新型设备走入大众口袋后产生了巨大的社会影响——它不仅让人们时刻联网，还重塑了我们彼此的互动方式，或是决定了我们是否选择进行互动。
迈尔斯具体指出，许多人已经将手机作为面对面互动的替代品。论文称，这项技术还让人们更容易观看色情内容、获取避孕相关信息，这些因素都对出生率造成了负面影响。
“我们看到的情况是，有iPhone的地区相比其他地区，生育率发生了显著变化，”迈尔斯告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻。
这项研究的结论基于iPhone在2007年至2011年期间仅通过美国电话电报公司（AT&T）独家发售这一自然实验。迈尔斯借此对比了美国各县的出生率：那些广泛覆盖AT&T网络、因此能够使用iPhone的地区，与那些几乎无法使用该运营商服务的地区。
迈尔斯告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻，她曾想要验证研究结果是否仅仅反映了AT&T的覆盖区域集中在城市地区，而这些地区受2008年金融危机的冲击更为严重。为此，她进行了多项统计检验，控制了经济和人口因素，结果发现iPhone的影响依然稳定存在。
“我当时说，‘哇，但这影响未免太大了’，”她回忆道，“我心想，‘我要尽一切可能来解释我在数据中看到的现象’，但我就是做不到。”
她补充道：“我并不惊讶存在这样的影响。让我惊讶的是，它竟然如此、如此显著。”
并非唯一因素
美国出生率下滑也可能还有其他几个原因。试图解释这一趋势的专家常常提及育儿成本高昂等财务问题，以及越来越多女性推迟生育或选择不组建家庭这一事实。
与此同时，几十年来，全球范围内无论是富裕国家还是贫穷国家，人口增长都在放缓，并非只有美国如此，经济学家们表示。
迈尔斯坦然承认，她的研究表明iPhone仅能部分解释生育率的下降。
“我们并不是说这全都是iPhone的锅。我们想说的是，这是一个非常值得考虑的重要因素，”她说，“在这段较短的时间内，它可以解释约三分之一到一半的下降幅度。这意味着仍有大约一半到三分之二的降幅无法得到解释。”
特朗普政府曾鼓励美国人生育更多孩子，并提出了为新生儿提供“育儿奖金”等想法。该政府还推出了一种新的美国儿童税收递延投资工具，为符合条件的儿童提供最高1000美元的联邦政府拨款。
其他国家也推出了经济激励措施，试图说服人们生育更多孩子，但这些努力大多未能取得成效。即便是挪威等提供优厚育儿福利的国家，过去二十年来的出生率也持续下滑。
一场缓慢蔓延的危机
迈尔斯认为，仅通过税收激励等经济政策，不太可能扭转出生率下降的趋势。而说服人们减少手机使用时间、多在“现实生活”中建立社交联系的努力，大多未能获得关注，尽管越来越多的州正在对学龄儿童实施手机使用限制。
美国人使用科技的方式与出生率之间可能存在的关联，会产生更广泛的经济影响。周二，美国社会保障管理局表示，该联邦项目的信托基金最早可能在2023年耗尽。该机构称，包括生育率下降在内的多个因素，正导致即将到来的资金短缺。
“生育率低于更替水平的人口对经济增长来说是一个真正的担忧，”迈尔斯说，“我们的体系是建立在当前劳动者供养老年退休人员的基础上的，如果当前劳动者的数量越来越少，这会变得越来越困难。”
编辑：阿兰·谢特尔
America’s birth rate has plunged. Are smartphones to blame?
2026-06-10 17:27:23 EDT / CBS News
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A decades-long decline in the U.S. fertility rate has confounded policymakers and economists alike, with experts pointing to possible causes ranging from the economic fallout of the Great Recession to changing public attitudes about parenthood. Now, one economist is pointing to another factor: the iPhone.
A new research paper by Middlebury College economist Caitlin Myers found that Apple’s 2007 introduction of the iPhone accounted for 33% to 52% of the decline in the fertility rate. The reasons are rooted in the enormous social impact of putting a powerful new device in people’s pockets that not only tethered them to the internet but also rewired how we relate to each other — or whether we choose to relate at all.
Specifically, Myers posits that many people have turned to their phones as a substitute for in-person interactions. The technology also makes it easier to view pornography and find information on contraception, factors that have weighed on birth rates, according to the paper.
“What we are seeing is that the places that have the iPhone have big fertility changes relative to the other places,” Myers told CBS News.
The findings rely on a natural experiment created by the iPhone’s exclusive distribution through AT&T from its rollout in 2007 through 2011. That allowed Myers to compare birth rates in U.S. counties with widespread AT&T coverage — and, therefore, access to iPhones — with those in regions with minimal access to the carrier’s service.
Myers told CBS News she wanted to check whether the results might reflect that AT&T’s coverage areas, which were focused in urban areas, were harder hit by the 2008 financial crisis. To do that, she ran several statistical checks, controlling for economic and demographic factors, and found that the iPhone effect remained consistent.
“I said, ‘Wow, but this has to be too big,’” she recalled. “I was like, ‘Let me try everything I can to explain away what I’m seeing in the data,’ and I just couldn’t.”
She added, “I’m not surprised that there is an effect. I am surprised that it stands out so, so clearly.”
Not the only factor
The declining U.S. birth rate could also be due to several other factors. Experts trying to explain the trend often cite financial issues, such as the high cost of child care, and the fact that more women are delaying having children or opting not to start a family.
Meanwhile, population growth has been slowing worldwide for decades in both rich and poor countries, not only in the U.S., according to economists.
Myers readily acknowledged that her research suggests that the iPhone only partially explains the drop.
“We’re not saying it’s all the iPhone. What we are saying is that it is a really important factor to consider,” she said. “Over this short period of time, it could explain about a third to a half of the decline. Now that leaves about half to two-thirds unexplained.”
The Trump administration has encouraged Americans to have more children and floated ideas such as a “baby bonus” for new parents. It has also introduced a new tax-deferred investment vehicle for U.S. children, offering federal government contributions of up to $1,000 to eligible kids.
Other countries have also introduced financial incentives to convince people to have more children, yet those efforts have largely failed to move the needle. Even countries that offer generous parental programs, like Norway, have seen their birth rates continue to decline over the past two decades.
A slow-moving crisis
Myers thinks the drop in birth rates is unlikely to be reversed solely through economic policy, such as tax incentives. And efforts to convince people to spend less time on their phones and more time making social connections “in real life” have mostly failed to gain traction, though more states are implementing cell phone restrictions for school-age children.
The possible link between how Americans use technology and birth rates has broader economic ramifications. On Tuesday, the Social Security Administration said the federal program is at risk of exhausting its trust fund as soon as 2023. Several factors — including the declining birth rate — are contributing to the approaching funding shortfall, according to the agency.
“It’s a real concern for economic growth to have a population with fertility below replacement levels,” Myers said. “We have a system set up where current workers support older retirees, and if we have fewer and fewer current workers, that becomes more and more difficult.”
Edited by Alain Sherter
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