2026年5月26日 / 美国东部时间下午3:38 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
新任美联储主席凯文·沃什本周可能会被一则关键通胀数据泼冷水，经济学家预计该数据将显示4月消费者物价持续飙升。
通胀再度走高的月份将让美联储更难实现决策者今年早些时候预期的降息，也难以兑现唐纳德·特朗普总统此前对美联储前主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔提出的大幅降息要求。
根据FactSet调查的经济学家预测，将于周四公布的个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）将显示4月通胀按年率计算达到3.9%。这将是美联储青睐的通胀指标自2023年5月以来的最高水平，原因是与伊朗局势相关的油价推高了汽油价格。
在上周五宣誓就职美联储主席后，沃什最紧迫的任务将是遏制不断上升的通胀。特朗普急于让美联储放宽借贷成本以刺激经济增长，这让这一挑战变得更加复杂。与此同时，沃什也已明确表示，他希望大幅重塑美联储的运作方式以及与金融市场的沟通模式。
“沃什面临的形势颇具挑战：稳定的劳动力市场叠加通胀风险上升，使得下一政策举措为加息的可能性增加，”安永-帕特农首席经济学家格雷戈里·达科在一份报告中表示。
达科还表示，负责设定基准利率的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）可能会在6月17日至18日的会议上承认，如果通胀持续高于美联储2%的年度目标，可能不得不加息。
随着通胀达到近三年来的最高水平，华尔街一些经济学家现在预测美联储将在2026年全年维持利率不变。随着时间推移，加息的可能性越来越大：芝加哥商品交易所联邦基金利率观察工具的数据显示，美联储在12月会议上加息的概率为40%，而在6月会议时这一概率仅为3%。该工具的预测基于30天联邦基金期货价格。
美联储改革即将启动？
在上周的宣誓就职仪式上，沃什承诺将领导一个“以改革为导向的美联储，汲取过往成败经验，摆脱僵化的框架和模式，并秉持清晰的诚信和业绩标准”。
但他也支持美联储传统的双重使命：维持低通胀和低失业率，并表示实现这些目标意味着“通胀可以更低，增长可以更强，实际税后收入可以更高，美国可以更加繁荣”。
沃什在4月22日参议院银行委员会确认听证会上阐述的美联储改革观点包括批评美联储发布经济预测的做法，他认为这会让决策者在不必要的长时间内固守既定立场，可能加剧政策失误。
沃什曾以美联储鹰派人士的形象为人所知——这类人士通常支持加息以抑制通胀——但他在去年转而支持降息。他认为，人工智能将通过提升美国的经济生产力抑制通胀，为美联储放宽借贷成本留出更多空间。
“按你自己的方式行事就好”
鉴于特朗普推动降息、通胀上升以及沃什的改革目标，经济学家告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻，这位新任美联储主席已经面临相互矛盾的压力。货币政策由联邦公开市场委员会的12名委员集体制定，尽管主席通常拥有相当大的话语权，但沃什需要说服委员会成员立即降息的必要性。
“凯文·沃什将很难说服任何人在短期内降息，”海军联邦信贷联盟首席经济学家希瑟·朗在一封电子邮件中说道。“沃什必须表明他有意愿为抑制通胀采取一切必要措施，即便这会让特朗普总统不满。”
经济学家表示，沃什面临的另一项挑战是维护美联储的独立性，向投资者保证央行将不受政治影响。前美联储主席鲍威尔曾竭力抵御特朗普的法律威胁和要求降息的巨大压力，他辩称，独立的美联储对经济繁荣至关重要。
在参议院听证会上，沃什作证称，美联储在制定货币政策时将保持“严格独立”。
在沃什的宣誓就职仪式上，特朗普表示他希望这位新任美联储主席“完全独立……不要看我，不要看任何人。按你自己的方式行事就好，把工作做好。”
Alain Sherter 编辑
本文由美联社供稿。
专家：沃什“前路任务艰巨”
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/new-fed-chair-kevin-warsh-difficult-job-expert/
Kevin Warsh is now leading the Fed. His main challenge is a doozy.
May 26, 2026 / 3:38 PM EDT / CBS News
New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh could face a rude awakening this week with the release of key inflation data that economists expect to show consumer prices continuing to surge in April.
Another hot month for inflation would make it harder for the Fed to deliver the interest rate cuts policymakers were projecting earlier this year and that President Trump aggressively demanded from former Fed chief Jerome Powell.
On Thursday, the personal consumption expenditures price index, or PCE, is expected to show April inflation rose at an annual rate of 3.9%, according to economists surveyed by FactSet. That would mark the highest level for the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge since May 2023 as oil prices tied to the Iran war push up gasoline prices.
After being sworn in Friday as Fed chair, Warsh’s most pressing order of business will be to rein in rising inflation. Complicating that challenge is Mr. Trump’s eagerness for the central bank to ease borrowing costs, which would boost economic growth. At the same time, Warsh has also signaled he wants to significantly reshape how the central bank operates and communicates with financial markets.
“Warsh faces a challenging backdrop as steady labor market conditions alongside rising inflation risks increase the odds of a rate hike as the next policy move,” EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco said in a report.
Daco also said that the Federal Open Market Committee — the Fed panel that sets its benchmark interest rate — could acknowledge at its June 17-18 meeting that it may have to hike rates if inflation remains above the central bank’s 2% annual target.
With inflation at its highest levelin nearly three years, some economists on Wall Street now predict the Fed will hold rates steady throughout 2026. A rate hike is seen as more likely as the year progresses, with a 40% probability that the Federal Reserve will hike rates at its December meeting, up from 3% at its June meeting, according to CME FedWatch, which bases its predictions on 30-Day Fed funds futures prices.
Fed reforms on tap?
During his swearing-in ceremony last week, Warsh pledged to lead a “reform-oriented Federal Reserve, learning from past successes and mistakes both, escaping static frameworks and models, and upholding clear standards of integrity and performance.”
Yet he also backed the Fed’s traditional dual mandate of keeping both inflation and unemployment rates low, saying that achieving those goals means that “inflation can be lower, growth stronger, real take-home pay higher and America can be more prosperous.”
Warsh’s views on reforming the Fed, which he outlined during his Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing on April 22, include criticisms of the central bank’s practice of issuing economic projections, arguing that it locks policymakers into positions longer than warranted, potentially compounding policy mistakes.
Warsh, who once had a reputation as a Fed hawk — someone who generally favors higher interest rates to keep a lid on inflation — last year came out in favor of lower rates. He has argued that artificial intelligence will curb inflation by boosting the nation’s economic productivity, giving the Fed more room to ease borrowing costs.
“Just do your own thing”
Given Mr. Trump’s push for lower rates, rising inflation and Warsh’s reformist goals, economists told CBS News the new Fed chair already faces competing pressures. Monetary policy decisions aremade by a committeeof 12 FOMC members, and while the chair usually has considerable sway, Warsh would need to persuade panel members of the immediate need for rate cuts.
“Kevin Warsh will have a hard time convincing anyone to cut rates any time soon,” said Heather Long, chief economist at the Navy Federal Credit Union, in an email. “Warsh is going to have to show he has the will to do whatever it takes on inflation, even if that upsets President Trump.”
Another challenge for Warsh will be to maintain the Fed’s independence and reassure investors that the central bank will remain free of political influence, according to economists. Powell, the former Fed chair, sought to fend off Mr. Trump’s legal threats and intense pressure to cut rates, arguing that anindependent Fed is essential for economic prosperity.
During his Senate hearing, Warsh testified that the central bank will remain “strictly independent” in setting monetary policy.
During Warsh’s swearing-in, Mr. Trump said he wants the new Fed chair to be “totally independent …. don’t look at me, don’t look at anybody. Just do your own thing, and do a great job.”
Edited by Alain Sherter
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Expert: Warsh has “difficult job in front of him”
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/new-fed-chair-kevin-warsh-difficult-job-expert/
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